#macroeconomic reforms

[trendynewsnow]

Linking EU Funding to Macroeconomic Reforms: Concerns and Perspectives

Linking EU Programmes to Macroeconomic Reforms: A Critical Perspective According to Siegfried Muresan, the MEP spearheading discussions on the EU’s next long-term budget (2028-34), linking EU funding programmes to broader macroeconomic reforms within member states could lead to significant negative consequences for citizens. In a recent interview with Euronews, Muresan criticized leaked proposals…

[pebblegalaxy]

The Career and Contributions of Economist Nouriel Roubini: Predicting the Global Financial Crisis

Nouriel Roubini is a world-renowned economist, academic, and advisor, who rose to fame in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. Nouriel Roubini earned the moniker “Dr. Doom” due to his negative predictions regarding the global economy, which ultimately proved to be accurate. Despite the initial perception of pessimism surrounding his views, his insights proved to be prescient in…

[tanadrin]

the invention of hell money by mortals is a huge problem actually since it’s caused terrible hell hyperinflation. king yan, the ruler of diyu, has repeatedly asked mortal princes to implement reforms to stem the tide of remittances from the living, but the dreams of hideous demons chanting about monetary policy sent to various finance ministers seem to have had no effect. attempts to demonetize various forms of hell money have been fruitless, as burned offerings simply materialize in whatever form is currently legal tender in the underworld. king yan has petitioned the jade emperor for permission to invade the world of the living directly to punish mortals for their lack of macroeconomic knowledge, but the request has been held up in the heavenly bureaucracy since the 1890s. so if you do want to make offerings to your loved ones in the afterlife, you might want to try saying a prayer over a usb stick containing a copy of your bitcoin wallet, then smashing it with a hammer.

[centrally-unplanned]

The Swing Won't Save You

The "mainstream" account of the election results is one I generally endorse. Elections are thermostatic in the sense that they bounce around an equilibrium - these days the incumbent has a disadvantage, being blamed for the problems but not credited for the successes. Democrats lost because of things like the 2021-2023 inflation spike, or the immigration surge, and the next administration will be blamed for whatever problems the cycle of history throws upon us on top of the consequences of their own actions. That is just How It Be, and it isn't something internal reform can change.

This account is probably true, but this does not lead to some of the conclusions one is hoping it will. I see many taking this as a sort of dismal c'est la vie, assuming that you can just ride it out and win next time, then do good when you do. That therefore there really isn't any need to change all that much in the Dem party structure.

The miss here is that there are fundamental inequalities in the two parties. We just went through, quite handily, the most progressive democratic administration in decades. One that was maximally committed to the idea of "FDR reborn". And it did some good stuff! But I don't really think it lived up to the name, not even close. The democratic "win" - which occurred at the peak of the Covid Crisis in an era of nigh-unprecedented discontent against an incumbent president who was deeply unpopular - delivered a razor thin margin in the House and a literal tiebreaker Senate, itself only after a series of special elections.

The Biden administration spent its political capital on macroeconomic stabilization, one authentic Dem priority in the IRA bill, and then otherwise spent much of its time on a series of rearguard actions and failed attempts to appease coalition partners like unions (who broke away from Dems in record numbers in 2024). Bad policy ideas like student debt relief were themselves undone by the courts. They had four years to prosecute Trump for a blatantly obvious mountain of crimes, and could not get a single one of them across the finish line. And meanwhile, due to awful polling numbers, they felt forced to pursue a number of policies they didn't even really agree with to stave off future defeat. Which they, of course, did somewhat badly, for many reasons but "not really believing in them" is certainly a factor.

Meanwhile surveying the Republican Party's incoming administration, I of course cannot say what they will do with their probable quadfecta, so this is speculative. But through the dice of death they handily control the courts. More importantly, they play the dice to control the courts - we already have discourse on getting the two oldest Republican jurors in the SC to retire. Republican plans include debates around say abolishing the NLRB as unconstitutional, or mass scale deportations, and more you have certainly heard of. They will not do all of them, of course not. But "winning a court case to dismantle a regulatory capacity" is far, far easier than passing a congressional bill to reinstate it. You are not "un-deporting" anybody. The entire Republican agenda is structurally easier to pursue - tearing down is just easier than building up.

And meanwhile, the levers of power are themselves biased. The Supreme Court, of course, but more importantly the Senate, which has an awful map for the Dems. Even when you give Dems their best case scenarios where they win every competitive upcoming election, you are talking 52-48 seats up through ~2032. Meanwhile, the Republican ceiling is 60-40, and is not likely to dip out of the majority.

No one can predict the future of course - I just don't think this scenario and reality is getting the proper attention. A "swing" model where Dems win in 2028 at the same margins they won in say 2020, and then it swings back and so on, is a defeat for Democrats. Republicans will likely achieve X% of their agenda over the next two years, solidify court control, and then Dems will achieve X/2% or worse and otherwise play defense on their turn. It almost certainly isn't the apocalypse, it most likely is not the end of democracy - if you don't wanna care about politics, you don't have to, go live your life. But if you are trying to win at politics, if that is your goal - which for a political party it should be - this just ain't it.

The debate I see is over whether or not this election should be a "wake-up call" for Dems. Which is the wrong question, to me - the Biden administration should be a wake up call for Dems. Even if Harris squeaked out a win, it is a defeat to the party that they found themselves running a decaying man with sub-40 approval ratings for President, or found themselves taking a former senator in the top 1% of the leftwing voting record and running her as a centrist. It should be shameful that they took literally years to act on a "border crisis" that once they did act they found themselves perfectly capable of addressing, not because they authentically believed in increasing immigration and wanted to spend capital on that agenda (which they did not do), but because they were scared of the blowback that happened anyway. It is beyond the pale that Trump is not in jail because they think "politicizing the judicial branch" is somehow not their literal jobs as political actors. It is embarrassing that solidly blue Democratic cities are hemorrhaging population to purple and red states because the Democratic party is failing to govern them.

And I know, I am in the grand, august, tiresome tradition of using an election to repeat the same shit I always say. I have been on this beat since at least 2019. But it being tiresome doesn't mean it's wrong. It might not be right! Maybe Republicans will truly collapse into squabbling infighting and get nothing much done beyond tax cuts, their truest love. I don't know. But I think the odds matrix here is pretty ruthless - the opportunities to be a better party barely have downsides. They implement bad policy half the time even when they win! There is a fundamental disconnect between "what do we want to achieve as a party" and "how are we going to achieve that", a strategy void that infighting, paralysis, and special interest spoils-grabbing fills.

I am less confident on the solution for all this - at minimum we don't even have all the post-election data, that will take time. But the problem such solutions should be solving is that the Dems have been losing for 8 years. "Thermostatic swing in 2028" is not going to change that.

[bright-eyed]

Whatever I'm just gonna post it. I've been reading a lot of coverage and I need to just get my thoughts out, it's not perfect and it's long and I'm just rambling but I gotta go to work and also lower my blood pressure so. Please just scroll past really fast if you don't wanna read about US politics (understandable, take care of yourself, have a great day)

So many Dems and leftists pointing fingers over the past week, when it’s obvious to me that the person at whose feet lays the primary responsibility for Trump’s resurgence is fucking Joe Biden and his establishment of stupid decrepit goons.

He refused to prosecute Trump for literally staging a coup when there was widespread, bipartisan political will for it. He put a hand-wringing Republican crank in charge of prosecution, who (probably purposefully) fumbled the bag so extraordinarily and for just long enough to let the right wing propaganda apparatus regroup and rewrite the prosecution into an example of a Democratic political hit job, a narrative many are already predisposed to believe, which reinforced the Democratic image as one of establishment corruption. Trump could be in prison right now, but instead, he's going to be president, all because Biden was a fucking coward and a goon.

He refused to make abortion and the fascistization of the Supreme Court into a mobilizing issue. There's a whole other rant in how abortion isn't necessarily a mobilizing issue, or at least how it wasn't in this election, but still, right after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, he could have marched up to the nearest podium and railed the court for the decision, laid the blame at their feet in a way that would have forced the media to name the responsible party, called out the Republican party for their corruption and machination of the Supreme Court, and committed the Dems to court reform. Instead, he made some forgettable statement about how important a woman's right to choose is or something, and then he derided leftists as crazy and out of touch with the party for their supposedly radical idea of reforming the court. Now, 10% of people believe that Biden is responsible for the overturning of abortion rights, and we have a court which has essentially become an unelected and untouchable branch of an increasingly right-wing Republican party, which rewrites and enacts will according to its political will, and which will endorse any presidential act made by Trump in the next 4+ years, no matter how unconstitutional or disastrous for country and the world.

He refused to listened to everyday people's concerns about their economic condition and instead kept harping on about how America has the greatest economy in the world, which only reinforced the belief that many people already had that the Democrats don't represent their interests. Biden's (and then Harris's) campaign talked about how the economy is great and inflation is actually lower than in many other Western countries, which may be true in a macroeconomic sense but is not salient for the average American citizen, who is struggling to make rent and buy groceries and who makes, adjusted for inflation, as much as someone did 50 years ago. Biden not only was incapable of providing any solutions, but also just refused to listen to voters or to admit the problems were there, and in a sense I don't blame people for turning away from him because he also failed to make his economic plans salient to your average person, so everyone basically voted on vibes (which they do literally every election because most people are not actually that interested in the technicalities of politics and just want to believe that the person in charge cares about them or at least has a plan).

He refused to step down when there was still enough time. He just should have fucking stepped down in 2022. Biden should have never tried to run again, and his decision to is what ultimately set this country on a path to Trump 2.0. Polls were showing voter had concerns about his age for years, and Biden only barely managed to win against Trump in 2020, and that was back before he had a track record of continuously fumbling the bag. He refused to step down, and robbed the Democratic party of a primary election, which would have allowed them to run not just new candidates but new messaging and strategies. This would have likely alleviated the incumbent variable which lost Harris the election, and might have reinvigorated the party long enough for it to crawl through to 2028. Instead, the party is (rightly, thankfully) in its death throes, having an existential crisis about its colossal failures. I don't know if Biden truly believed he was the best choice, that he'd win, that he was entitled to a second term, or whatever, but the voters didn't agree with him. It's such a gigantic slap in the face that, on top of all the ways he failed to do anything that mattered, he still thought so little of us and so highly of himself to think we'd blindly follow him again, and he fucked us all in the process.

The media (right wing and establishment both) is also responsible, seeing as the entire information ecosystem through which people across the globe get their news is almost irredeemably corrupt, and in America that corruption is particularly disastrous. The establishment at large (especially Democratic) is also responsible because it refused to see the reality of what is happening politically, even to their own colleagues, and it refuses to take a stand against it. But Joe Biden exemplifies everything that's wrong with the Democratic party, and we have to rebuild this shit from the ground up. There are so many people out there who are desperate for a government that actually works, that addresses their concerns, that provides solutions and follows through, that fights for them. There are so many individual people, activists and politicians alike, who want to fight for them, but the part has been too scared to take a stand and too ideologically incoherent to take a side. We have to start talking about what we actually believe to voters and stop letting the right wing manufacture a straw man identity for us so that we never have another Biden or another failure this catastrophic. I mean, you have to believe in something! Believe in something! I'm going crazy!

[labutansa]

“Press Release from Salsay Weyane Tigray

The Ethiopian government's recent introduction of national currency devaluation measures as part of a macroeconomic reform policy is causing severe hardship for the people of Tigray. While these liberalization measures may hold long-term benefits, their immediate impact on Tigray is devastating.

In particular, hundreds of thousands of Tigrayan civil servants, who have been deprived of up to two years' salary, are now facing the brunt of the sharp inflation worsened by the devaluation.

This denial of their rightful earnings, compounded by the government's failure to implement measures to mitigate the effects of devaluation, is adding insult to injury. In just the past few days, the purchasing power of their unpaid salaries has been halved.

Moreover, these measures are being implemented against the backdrop of a region ravaged by genocide and robbed of assets essential for investment and competition. Without a level playing field, the people of Tigray continue to face insurmountable challenges. To create equal opportunities, the Ethiopian government must take immediate steps to bring Tigray's economic conditions in line with the rest of the country.

We reiterate our demand for the immediate release of the withheld salaries owed to hundred thousands of Tigrayan civil servants. We also call upon the international community, especially lending institutions, to pressure the government to prioritize the allocation of sufficient funds for the rehabilitation of war-torn Tigray.

Finally, we urge Tigrayan civil servants, including teachers, physicians, legal professionals, and others working in federal institutions, to intensify their peaceful struggle for their denied rights.

Salsay Weyane Tigray

August 5, 2024”

[foxnangelseo]

Navigating the Indian Investment Landscape: A Comprehensive Guide for International Investors

India, with its vibrant economy, diverse market opportunities, and favorable regulatory environment, has emerged as an attractive destination for international investors seeking high returns and long-term growth prospects. From burgeoning sectors like technology and e-commerce to traditional industries such as manufacturing and agriculture, India offers a wealth of investment opportunities for savvy investors. In this comprehensive guide, we'll explore the Indian investment landscape, highlighting key sectors, regulatory considerations, investment strategies, and tips for international investors looking to capitalize on India's growth story.

Understanding the Indian Investment Landscape:

1. Economic Overview: India is the world's sixth-largest economy by nominal GDP and one of the fastest-growing major economies globally. With a young and dynamic population, a burgeoning middle class, and increasing urbanization, India offers a vast consumer market and a favorable demographic dividend for investors.

2. Key Investment Sector: India's economy is diverse and offers investment opportunities across various sectors. Some of the key sectors attracting international investors include:

- Information Technology (IT) and Software Services

- E-commerce and Digital Payments

- Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals

- Renewable Energy and Clean Technology

- Infrastructure and Real Estate

- Manufacturing and Automotive

- Agriculture and Agribusiness

3. Regulatory Environment: India has implemented several reforms to streamline its regulatory environment and improve the ease of doing business for investors. The government has introduced initiatives such as Make in India, Startup India, and Digital India to encourage investment, innovation, and entrepreneurship. Additionally, foreign direct investment (FDI) policies have been liberalized across various sectors, allowing greater foreign participation in the Indian economy.

4. Taxation and Legal Considerations: International investors should familiarize themselves with India's tax laws, regulations, and legal frameworks before making investment decisions. India has a progressive tax regime with corporate tax rates varying based on business structure, industry, and income levels. It's advisable to consult with tax advisors and legal experts to navigate the complexities of India's taxation and legal landscape.

Investment Strategies for International Investors:

1. Market Research and Due Diligence: Conduct thorough market research and due diligence to identify investment opportunities aligned with your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and sector preferences. Evaluate market trends, competitive dynamics, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic indicators to make informed investment decisions.

2. Diversification: Diversify your investment portfolio across different asset classes, sectors, and geographic regions to mitigate risks and maximize returns. Consider allocating capital to both high-growth sectors such as technology and healthcare, as well as stable sectors like infrastructure and consumer goods.

3. Long-Term Perspective: Adopt a long-term investment perspective when investing in India. While short-term market volatility and regulatory changes may occur, India's economic fundamentals remain strong, offering attractive growth prospects over the medium to long term. Patient investors can capitalize on India's demographic dividend and structural reforms to generate significant returns.

4. Partnering with Local Experts: Partnering with local investment advisors, financial institutions, and legal experts can provide valuable insights and guidance on navigating the Indian investment landscape. Local expertise can help international investors navigate regulatory hurdles, identify investment opportunities, and mitigate operational risks effectively.

5. Investment Vehicles: Evaluate different investment vehicles available for investing in India, including direct investments, private equity funds, venture capital funds, and mutual funds. Each investment vehicle offers unique benefits and risks, so it's essential to assess their suitability based on your investment goals and risk appetite.

Tips for International Investors:

1. Stay Informed: Stay updated on market developments, regulatory changes, and economic trends affecting the Indian investment landscape. Follow reputable financial news sources, attend industry conferences, and engage with local experts to stay informed and make timely investment decisions.

2. Network and Build Relationships: Networking with industry professionals, government officials, and fellow investors can provide valuable insights and access to investment opportunities in India. Join industry associations, attend networking events, and leverage social media platforms to expand your network and build relationships in the Indian business community.

3. Be Patient and Persistent: Investing in India requires patience, persistence, and a long-term commitment. Building relationships, navigating regulatory hurdles, and achieving investment success take time and effort. Stay focused on your investment goals, adapt to changing market conditions, and remain resilient in the face of challenges.

4. Seek Professional Advice: Consult with financial advisors, tax consultants, and legal experts specializing in India to seek professional advice tailored to your specific investment needs. Expert guidance can help you navigate regulatory complexities, optimize tax efficiency, and maximize returns on your investments in India.

5. Cultural Sensitivity: Recognize and respect cultural differences when conducting business in India. Building strong relationships and trust with local partners and stakeholders requires understanding and appreciating Indian customs, traditions, and business etiquette.

6. Risk Management: Assess and manage risks effectively by diversifying your investment portfolio, conducting thorough due diligence, and implementing risk mitigation strategies. Consider geopolitical risks, currency fluctuations, regulatory changes, and market volatility when making investment decisions.

7. Sustainability and ESG Factors: Consider environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors when evaluating investment opportunities in India. Increasingly, investors are prioritizing sustainability and responsible investing practices to mitigate risks, enhance long-term value, and align investments with their values and principles.

8. Stay Flexible and Agile: Remain flexible and agile in adapting to changing market conditions, regulatory requirements, and investor preferences. India's business environment is dynamic and evolving, requiring investors to stay nimble and responsive to emerging opportunities and challenges.

India offers a wealth of investment opportunities for international investors seeking high growth potential and diversification benefits. With its robust economy, favorable demographic trends, and supportive regulatory environment, India continues to attract capital inflows across various sectors. By understanding the Indian investment landscape, adopting sound investment strategies, and leveraging local expertise, international investors can capitalize on India's growth story and unlock significant value for their investment portfolios. As India continues on its path of economic development and reform, it remains a compelling destination for investors looking to participate in one of the world's most dynamic and promising markets.

In conclusion, navigating the “Invest in India” landscape requires careful planning, strategic decision-making, and a long-term perspective. By understanding the key sectors, regulatory considerations, investment strategies, and tips outlined in this guide, international investors can position themselves to capitalize on the vast opportunities offered by India's vibrant economy and emerging market dynamics. With the right approach and guidance, investing in India can yield attractive returns and contribute to portfolio diversification and long-term wealth creation for investors around the globe.

This post was originally published on: Foxnangel

[economicshomeworkhelper]

Navigating Economics Challenges: A Comprehensive Approach to Macroeconomic Stability

In the dynamic world of macroeconomics, governments often find themselves grappling with multifaceted challenges such as high inflation, rising unemployment, and a widening trade deficit. As economic advisors, we delve into the intricate interplay of monetary and fiscal policies to craft a holistic strategy that not only addresses these issues but also considers the broader implications on aggregate demand and supply.

The Conundrum: Simultaneous Challenges

Imagine a scenario where a country is facing the triple threat of high inflation rates, a surging unemployment rate, and an expanding trade deficit. The complexity of this situation necessitates a nuanced policy package that combines both monetary and fiscal measures.

Monetary Measures

In tackling inflation, the central bank becomes a key player. Through the manipulation of interest rates, specifically adopting a contractionary policy by raising rates, the aim is to cool down an overheated economy. Open market operations, involving the sale of government securities, also play a role in reducing the money supply, contributing to the stabilization efforts. Furthermore, strategic interventions in the foreign exchange market can help address the trade deficit by influencing the exchange rate.

Fiscal Measures

Complementing the monetary measures, fiscal policies come into play. Government spending adjustments, particularly in public investment, serve as a powerful tool to stimulate economic activity and counter rising unemployment. Tax policies, when calibrated appropriately, can influence consumer spending and help in curbing inflation. Additionally, labor market reforms can enhance flexibility, aiding in the transition of workers to sectors with growing opportunities.

Balancing Act: Potential Risks and Limitations

While this comprehensive approach holds promise, it's essential to navigate potential pitfalls. Policy lags, a perennial challenge in economic management, could impede the swift impact of these measures. Global economic conditions and the need for policy coordination add additional layers of complexity. Managing inflation expectations and external shocks are crucial considerations in ensuring the success of these strategies.

Amidst the intricacies of macroeconomic policy, students grappling with their homework may wonder, Can someone do my macroeconomics homework? Understanding these principles requires a keen grasp of the intricacies we've explored. So, as you delve into the complexities of your assignments, remember that an understanding of these real-world scenarios is fundamental.

Conclusion

In the realm of macroeconomics, the challenges are many, but so too are the tools available to address them. A nuanced combination of monetary and fiscal policies, carefully calibrated to the specific economic context, can pave the way for stability. As we navigate these economic waters, it's essential to understand the potential risks, limitations, and the delicate balance required for successful macroeconomic management.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

As Lula takes over, Brazil’s economic prospects are looking up

But he still has his work cut out: inflation is high, and debt and poverty rates soaring

AT FIRST glance Lula’s second presidential act looks badly timed. In 2002 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva inherited an economy that had just been subjected to wrenching reforms. Lula governed capably, but was bolstered by friendly global forces: soaring demand for Brazil’s commodity exports, low global interest rates and a sagging dollar. He left office in 2010, having presided over average annual growth of 4.5%, a 50% increase in average Brazilian incomes, and a hefty drop in unemployment, poverty and government debt.

Yet during last year’s election campaign, few thought Lula’s second stint as president would be as lucky. He inherits an economy hardly richer than the one he bequeathed his successor, Dilma Rousseff (see chart 1). Under her, the country plunged into a deep recession; her impeachment over a corruption scandal tarnished Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT). The economy still bears the scars of the pandemic, which killed nearly 1m Brazilians and knocked 4% off gDP. Gross government debt now stands at 88% of GDP—an eye-watering level for an emerging market with a history of macroeconomic crises—while inflation is well above the central bank’s target. Most disconcertingly, he takes the reins of a country which suffered serious damage to its environment and its democratic institutions under Jair Bolsonaro, his Trumpish predecessor, whose supporters stormed government buildings in the capital, Brasília, in early January.

So Lula does indeed have his work cut out. Brazil sorely needs investment in its infrastructure, as well as spending on education to train Brazilian workers for better jobs and to make up for learning lost during the pandemic. The Amazon rainforest, the health of which depends on efforts to strengthen and enforce rules against deforestation, will require more spending. So will poverty; it soared during the pandemic, after falling for much of the 2010s. Enacting policies to meet these needs means not only maintaining unity in the congressional coalition led by the PT, but also mastering difficult budget arithmetic.

Continue reading.

[starseedfxofficial]

Europe's PMI Blues: Hidden Market Opportunities for Traders Is Europe Singing the Blues? Breaking Down Flash PMI Data If you've ever bought concert tickets for what you thought would be a rock show, only to find yourself at a mellow jazz night, you'll understand what happened to the European economies in November. The latest batch of Flash PMI data has left many traders questioning, "Is this the show we signed up for?" Spoiler alert: it's a bit of a mixed bag, with some drum solos and a lot of bass-heavy blues. Let’s dive in and uncover what this data really means for the markets, and what the undercurrents reveal for savvy traders like yourself. Germany: Treading Water in Recession Waters Germany’s PMI data is like that friend who keeps saying they’re "fine" when they’re clearly not. The composite PMI for November came in at 47.3, below the expected 48.6, suggesting that the economy continues to grapple with headwinds. Manufacturing held steady at 43.2, marginally missing expectations, while services dropped to 49.4 from an expected 51.6. All of this paints a picture of an economy treading water, still very much in the depths of a recession mindset. But here's where it gets interesting—despite the numbers, there was a slight uptick in future output expectations. Could it be a sign that some traders expect the new German government to pull off an economic turnaround, like a coach brought in to save a struggling football team? The question here is, will the reforms be bold enough to move the needle? That’s the wildcard to keep your eyes on. France: Sacré Bleu! The Unexpected Stumble French data was a bit like realizing that croissants aren’t really a health food—disappointing, yet somehow unsurprising. The composite PMI fell to 44.8, well below the forecasted 48.3. Services, traditionally a strong suit for France, also faltered, coming in at 45.7 against expectations of 49.0. The manufacturing sector mirrored Germany's malaise, with a reading of 43.2, which, in simpler terms, means "nope, still struggling." Despite the general gloom, there was a silver lining: service providers are still adding jobs. It’s akin to rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, but hey—employment is employment. The employment numbers indicate that perhaps France is hedging against a future recovery. Traders might want to consider whether the stubborn resilience in employment could eventually translate into growth once the macroeconomic clouds clear. Eurozone: Singing the Recession Blues Together The Eurozone as a whole delivered PMI data that’s best summed up by the words "sinking deeper." The composite PMI for the bloc came in at 48.1, dipping below the crucial 50 mark, with manufacturing and services both underperforming. It’s like a double act in a talent show where neither performer can hit the right note—services and manufacturing seem to be playing off each other’s weaknesses, with neither able to take the lead. For traders, the underwhelming numbers mean we’re looking at an extended period of low growth and perhaps deflationary risks. This could open opportunities for contrarian plays—is it time to buy the dips on the euro, or look for upside in the German DAX as expectations are at rock bottom? The UK: On the Brink of a Slump Over in the UK, the picture isn't much rosier. The composite PMI for November landed at 49.9, indicating a contraction is in sight. The retail sales figures for October showed a 0.7% month-on-month decline, suggesting consumers are tightening their wallets—and perhaps saving up for more essentials, like heating bills rather than holiday shopping sprees. The kicker? The services PMI flatlined at 50, missing the expected 52. The outlook is bleak, but consumer confidence, oddly enough, saw a slight lift. It’s as if the British public, in classic stoic fashion, is saying, "Well, it could be worse, right?" Hidden Opportunities Amidst the PMI Pessimism Here’s where the magic happens. Despite all the negative headlines, these data points give Forex traders a hidden edge. Most of the market is digesting this information as a reason to hit the panic button, but the contrarian will notice the subtle shifts—Germany's future output optimism, France's stubborn job growth, and UK consumer confidence holding up better than expected. These are early signs that, while economic conditions are challenging, the worst-case scenario may already be priced in. For those looking to capitalize, consider this: the euro is under heavy pressure, and any positive surprise could lead to an outsized reaction. Similarly, the sterling’s drop might have been overdone, especially if sentiment can stabilize. The Hidden Gems for Traders While the numbers might scream recession, savvy traders know that the devil’s in the details. Germany’s quiet optimism, France’s job growth, and the UK’s resilience in consumer confidence are all signs that it might not be all doom and gloom. The market is reactive, but being proactive—digging a little deeper into these mixed signals—is what sets successful traders apart. Remember: markets often overshoot on bad news, and that’s when opportunities arise. Keep a close watch on the narrative around these economies; once the headlines turn, those who saw the subtle changes first will already be in position. —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated   Read the full article

[happysboys]

Analysis of China's Current Economic Advantages

In the context of the ever-changing global economy today, China's economy, with its unique advantages and robust endogenous driving force, continues to attract global attention. China's economy has not only achieved remarkable achievements over the past few decades but also demonstrates strong resilience and immense potential in current and future development. Below is a detailed analysis of China's economic advantages.

Firstly, China boasts the institutional advantage of a socialist market economy. This economic system not only leverages the decisive role of the market in resource allocation but also centralizes efforts to address major strategic issues related to the country's overall and long-term interests. This economic system facilitates sustainable economic development and reduces polarization between the rich and poor, ensuring the strategic direction and focus of economic growth. Meanwhile, the Party Congress held every five years and the "Five-Year Plan" allow China's economy to be laid out and developed according to long-term strategies, enhancing the efficiency of national economic operations.

Secondly, China enjoys the demand advantage of an ultra-large-scale market. As a country with a large population and substantial economic scale, China's market demand is vast and diverse in levels. This not only provides a powerful domestic demand potential for economic growth but also attracts numerous multinational corporations and international brands to invest and expand their markets here. In the future, with the increase in urban and rural residents' incomes and the upgrading of consumption structures, the domestic demand potential of the Chinese market will further unleash.

Furthermore, China's complete industrial system and supply chain represent another significant economic advantage. China is the only country with all industrial categories listed in the United Nations Industrial Classification, and its manufacturing value-added accounts for nearly one-third of the world's total. This comprehensive industrial system and industrial layout give China a distinct advantage in the global industrial landscape. Additionally, China is continuously promoting the optimization and upgrading of its industrial structure, fostering new productive forces, and enhancing the quality and efficiency of economic development.

Moreover, China possesses the talent advantage of a large number of highly skilled workers and entrepreneurs. These talents provide a continuous source of motivation and intellectual support for China's economic development. With the continuous reinforcement of shortcomings in education, healthcare, and other fields, as well as the significant improvement in the quality of talent and capital supply, China's economic development will increasingly rely on a high-quality talent pool.

In addition to these four major advantages, China's economy also benefits from a series of reform and opening-up dividends. In recent years, China has continuously introduced new reform and opening-up measures to optimize the investment environment and attract more foreign capital inflows. Simultaneously, China has strengthened support for innovative enterprises, enhancing the overall competitiveness of the economy. These reform and opening-up initiatives provide new growth points and power sources for China's economy.

In the current economic operation, the Chinese government is also intensifying efforts to introduce a package of incremental policies to promote sustained economic recovery and improvement. These policies focus on strengthening countercyclical macroeconomic policy adjustments, expanding domestic effective demand, increasing support for enterprises, stabilizing the real estate market, and boosting the capital market, aiming to enhance the pertinence and precision of macroeconomic policies and improve the effectiveness and sustainability of economic development.

In summary, China's economy still possesses strong advantages and potential in current and future development. These advantages are not only reflected in institutions, markets, industries, and talent but also benefit from the dividends of reform and opening up and government policy support. Therefore, we have reason to believe that China's economy will continue to maintain a stable, healthy, and sustainable development trend, providing more opportunities and possibilities for the global economy.

[trendynewsnow]

Chancellor Scholz Hosts Industry Summit Amid Economic Crisis

Chancellor Scholz Invites Industry Leaders Amidst Economic Challenges German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has taken the initiative to convene a meeting with key representatives from the German economy and trade unions at the Chancellery this coming Tuesday. Notably absent from this so-called industry summit are Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the FDP and Economics Minister Robert Habeck from the…

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns over President Bola Tinubu's economic reforms, asserting that the measures implemented have not yielded the intended positive outcomes. In its latest outlook report for Sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF pointed out that the economic strategies embarked upon by the Tinubu administration have yet to show tangible results, 18 months after their commencement. University of Africa Toru-Orua (UAT) Recruitment 2024: Academic and Non-Teaching Positions Now Open The global financial body also highlighted the increasing hardship faced by Nigerians, with rising poverty levels being a significant concern. Nigeria Falls Short in Regional Economic Performance The IMF report, unveiled at the Lagos Business School by Deputy Director Catherine Patillo, painted a bleak picture for Nigeria, contrasting it with other African nations showing signs of economic recovery. While the average economic growth rate for the region is projected to hold at 3.6% for the entire 2024, Nigeria lags behind at 3.19%. Patillo noted that macroeconomic imbalances have improved in several countries, yet Nigeria was notably absent from the list of success stories. Read Also: Delta Assembly Passes Electricity Power Sector Bill, 2024: What It Means for Deltans Patillo remarked, "We have seen significant fiscal consolidation in many countries, with improvements in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Zambia. However, Nigeria's macroeconomic situation remains precarious, with rising inflation and persistent currency instability." Inflation and Exchange Rate Woes Persist While inflation rates in several African nations have stabilized, Nigeria’s inflation surged to 33.8% in October 2024, well above the government's 21% target. The IMF noted that Nigeria remains among countries struggling to contain inflation, alongside Angola and Ethiopia. Pay Attention To: Breaking: NJC Suspends Rivers, Anambra Judges Without Pay for One Year Patillo emphasized, "In many countries, inflation is now within or below target ranges, but Nigeria continues to grapple with double-digit inflation due to unanchored monetary policies." The IMF also highlighted the severe depreciation of the Nigerian naira, exacerbating the country’s exchange rate instability. Patillo added, "Foreign exchange pressures have eased across much of the region, yet Nigeria’s currency has faced unprecedented depreciation this year." Rising Debt Poses Threat to Fiscal Stability Another critical point in the IMF’s assessment is Nigeria's escalating debt burden, which has strained fiscal stability. The report noted that Nigeria is among countries where debt servicing consumes a significant portion of revenues, limiting the government's capacity for development spending. The IMF stated, "Interest payments now exceed 20% of revenues in nearly one-quarter of Sub-Saharan countries, including Nigeria, which has seen a dramatic rise in debt service costs." Social and Political Challenges Impede Reforms The outlook report painted a mixed picture for the region, warning that Nigeria's resource-heavy economy remains vulnerable. The IMF highlighted that domestic and external financing conditions are tight, while social and political resistance further complicates policy adjustments. The report emphasized, "Political and social pressures make it increasingly difficult to implement necessary reforms in countries like Nigeria." The IMF report singled out countries like Ghana and Botswana for making strides in restoring macroeconomic stability, while Nigeria was categorized among those experiencing "adjustment fatigue." It recommended a strategic shift, urging Nigerian leaders to focus on building public trust and creating coalitions for pro-growth reforms. Food Sector Stakeholders Decry Ineffective Reforms In the food sector, key stakeholders have expressed dissatisfaction with the federal government’s agricultural policies, rating them as largely ineffective. The National President of the

All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), Arc Ibrahim Kabir, noted that while the reforms are desirable, the implementation mechanisms are flawed. He stated, "The agricultural reforms introduced are promising, but without proper implementation strategies, their impact remains minimal." Andrew Mamedu, Country Director of ActionAid Nigeria, echoed similar sentiments, highlighting Nigeria's food insecurity crisis. He remarked, "Despite the state of emergency declared on food production, Nigeria still ranks among the most food-insecure countries in 2024. High input costs, poor access to credit, and insecurity in farming regions continue to hinder progress." Call for Comprehensive Policy Implementation Food sector experts, including the Team Lead of Jet FarmNG, Jerry Olanrewaju, have urged the government to streamline policy frameworks and focus on actionable strategies. Olanrewaju pointed out, "The current administration’s statements on agriculture are yet to be backed by a robust implementation framework. The duplication of policies has further complicated progress, making it imperative to focus on executing existing policies effectively." Stakeholders called for increased budgetary allocations to agriculture and targeted subsidies to support smallholder farmers. Mamedu emphasized, "The government must prioritize climate-resilient practices and invest in rural infrastructure to boost agricultural output and enhance food security." Outlook: IMF Recommendations and Stakeholder Hopes The IMF report recommended a holistic approach to reform implementation, stressing the need for improved communication and stakeholder engagement. It stated, "To mobilize support for deep reforms, the Nigerian government must rebuild public trust and adopt compensatory measures that address the needs of vulnerable populations." The food sector stakeholders expressed cautious optimism, urging the federal government to adopt best practices from leading global economies. They advocated for strategic subsidies, improved access to credit, and enhanced infrastructure to support farmers and drive sustainable growth

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 KSET Economics Syllabus: Comprehensive Guide for Aspiring Educators 

KSET for economics tests candidates over a wide range of economic principles and theories compared to those called for by most teaching and academic positions. A proper understanding of the KSET Economics syllabus will help candidates target their preparation properly, including fundamental and advanced topics in economics. Below is the detailed breakdown of syllabus to help you in preparing better. 

Microeconomics and Macroeconomics 

The KSET Economics syllabus starts with the foundation of both Microeconomics and Macroeconomics. Under the Microeconomics head, you are supposed to study consumer behavior, utility analysis, demand and supply theories, market structures-perfect competition, monopoly, and oligopoly-and price determination. He needs to know the concepts of elasticity and indifference curves and various production functions like Cobb-Douglas production function. 

The topics under the syllabus of Macroeconomics are about national income accounting, Keynesian theory, classical and new classical models, and also modern growth theories. Important topics are GDP, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy, unemployment, and economic fluctuations. All these principles help in analyzing economic performance as well as large-scale issues in the economy. 

Public Economics 

The Public Economics area looks at the role of the government in the economy. It covers public goods, tax principles, budget deficits and beyond, public expenditure, and social welfare policies. Some knowledge of the underpinnings of revenue, public debt, and market interventions by the government, like subsidies and taxes are added elements that should be cleared up with this syllabus. 

International Economics 

The International Economics component encompasses discussions of trade theories and policies, exchange rates, balance of payments, and international economic institutions such as the IMF and World Bank. The examiners would expect the candidate to be conversant with such theories as comparative advantage, Heckscher-Ohlin, and trade barriers in classical and modern trade theories. This aspect also covers foreign exchange markets and the effects of a change in currency on international transactions. 

Development Economics and Growth 

Development Economics involves economic development and issues related to growth in developing countries. These include theories of development, poverty, inequality, population growth, and rural-urban migration. Also, often studied key models are Rostow's Stages of Growth, Lewis's Dual Sector Model, and others. The candidates should also be aware of strategies for reducing poverty, goals of sustainable development, and impacts of education, health, and technology on the economy. 

Indian Economy 

Indian Economy examines the nation's process of economic planning, industrial policy, agricultural policy, and financial sector reforms. It discusses issues surrounding the Five-Year Plans, liberalization and globalization reforms implemented in 1991, current trends in the Indian economy, and its ongoing problems. The students would be required to explain some problems like unemployment, inflation, poverty, and the state's welfare and economic growth policies. 

Money and Banking 

Money and Banking develops the theme of nature and function of money, role of the central bank, and the monetary system. The syllabus includes money supply, interest rates, inflation, and banking reforms. Important in this area is understanding RBI policies, the structure of India's financial system, and problems related to monetary policy. 

Environmental Economics 

This section deals with resource conservation, pollution control, and sustainable development. It discusses topics including environmental policies; cost-benefit analysis in environmental projects, renewable resources, and the economic impact of climate change. They are expected to understand how economics helps manage environmental challenges and promote sustainability. 

Mathematical Economics and Econometrics 

Mathematical economics relates to mathematical concepts used to solve economic problems. These concepts involve calculus and linear algebra. Within this context, part of the syllabus involves optimizing techniques as well as economic modeling. Applicants must be able to work with equations, derivatives, and elasticities. 

Many knowledge areas are required in the application of statistics to economics. Hence, questions on regression analysis, hypothesis testing, and the use of probability distributions form another important category. 

Another important area that one needs to know about econometric models is how to apply these models in analyzing economic data or forecasting economic trends. 

Statistics for Economics 

This paper covers statistical techniques as well as data collection, sampling methods, and probability theory. Important topics in this cover central tendencies, correlation, regression, and index numbers. Critical statistical analysis is important to be used in economics as it helps candidates interpret data and make informed economic decisions. 

Preparation Tips for KSET Economics 

A student must master all sections in detail, and there should be emphasis on key theories, models, and real-world application. Using previous year's question papers can also be helpful to aid in practice, as this exposes the candidate to the format of the exam and frequently asked topics. Regular attempts, especially of complex topics such as Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, will help one understand it. 

Conclusion 

The KSET Economics syllabus brings along an array of topics, and hence, candidates must approach each section systematically. With appropriate and consistent preparation and a good understanding of the syllabus, candidates can really brighten up their prospects in the KSET exam. Economics touches upon every dimension of society and its decision-making. Mastery of these topics will not only help excel in the KSET exam but also lay a foundation for an academic and research future. 

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📉 Macroeconomic reforms, including a floating exchange rate, have increased remittance inflows by 20% and attracted more foreign investment. Read more: https://lnkd.in/enhBNf-4

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Fitch Upgrades Ethiopia’s Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms and Eased Financial Pressures

October 28, 2024 – Fitch Ratings has raised Ethiopia’s Long-Term Local-Currency (LTLC) Issuer Default Rating to ‘CCC+’ from ‘CCC-‘, citing easing financial pressures and enhanced macroeconomic stability. This marks a positive shift, as the country’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency rating remains at ‘RD’ (Restricted Default). Key Drivers of the Upgrade Fitch’s decision reflects Ethiopia’s continued…