#i wrote this instead of watching seton hall

[welllpthisishappening]

You Play Ball Like a Girl: Outtakes 2.0

“Oh my God, Rubes,” David sighed, pushing his own empty coffee mug towards the waitress. “At least pretend like you have some tact.” “I don’t,” Ruby said. She smiled at Killian and he considered all the ways he could, possibly, sink into the corner of the slightly worn plastic this booth was made out of. “Although you do look kind of tired.” “I’m fine,” Killian argued quickly, far too quickly to pass off as anything except the lie it was.

“Yeah, you look it,” David laughed. He propped his feet up on underneath the table, not even bothering to try and avoid the side of Killian’s leg.

Hanging out on Ao3 and tag’ed up on Tumblr and I’m going to keep writing these outtakes forever if it means I can ignore the rest of my vaguely adult responsibilities. 

He could barely keep his eyes open.

He was going to fall asleep in a corner booth of Granny’s with a plate of onion rings in front of him. He’d probably get his suit dirty.

When he, inevitably, fell asleep at this table.

Killian closed his eyes, blinking quickly several times and hoping against hope that he would, somehow, find a way to stay awake.

He hadn’t really slept the night before.

He probably should have. Emma had.

She’d grumbled about it – and he absolutely , positively would not spend the majority of the day thinking about that, about the way her fingers had moved down the line of his shirt or the way her lips ticked down when he’d muttered you should probably get some sleep – but it had taken all of two and a half minutes before her breathing had evened out.

It took him...more than two and a half minutes.

Several hours.

Or maybe most of the night.

And there were probably bags under his eyes and Killian was half convinced he was closing in on some sort of world record for coffee consumption before noon, but he’d absolutely , positively do it the again.

If it meant waking up with Emma curled against his side and an arm splayed over his stomach, then he’d be willing to forgo sleep for the rest of his life entirely.

He had, clearly, lost his mind.

It was probably because he was so sleep deprived.

“Man, you absolutely downed that,” Ruby said, appearing in front of the table with a freshly brewed pot of coffee in one hand and the other on her hip and a knowing smile on her face. “Lots of late-breaking news last night?” Killian’s elbow slid off the table, hitting against his side and he winced slightly when Ruby, somehow, lifted her eyebrows even more.

“Oh my God, Rubes,” David sighed, pushing his own empty coffee mug towards the waitress. “At least pretend like you have some tact.” “I don’t,” Ruby said. She smiled at Killian and he considered all the ways he could, possibly, sink into the corner of the slightly worn plastic this booth was made out of. “Although you do look kind of tired.” “I’m fine,” Killian argued quickly, far too quickly to pass off as anything except the lie it was.

“Yeah, you look it,” David laughed. He propped his feet up on underneath the table, not even bothering to try and avoid the side of Killian’s leg.

Ruby hooked her own foot around one of the chairs from a nearby table, sinking onto even more worn plastic and she’d left the coffee pot behind her. “Bring that with you,” Killian muttered, nodding towards the still-steaming pot and he wasn’t sure when he actually started to feel almost comfortable in Storybrooke.

Probably at the docks.

No, definitely at the docks. The moment he told her about Liam and there was something about the water and sound or the lack of sound and Killian couldn’t remember the last time he’d breathed that easy.

Or the last time he hadn’t breathed that easily, oxygen intake suffering just a bit as soon as Emma’s lips were on his.

God, he was exhausted.

And he could feel David staring at him, eyes narrowed a fraction of an inch as he gazed at Killian over the top of his recently-refilled coffee mug. Ruby’s eyes kept moving back and forth – staring at each of them in turn, like she was watching a particularly entertaining tennis match – and it sounded like a boulder hit the floor when she slammed her heel against it, uncrossing her legs and sitting up just a little straighter.

“You know, you’re the talk of the entire town,” she said, staring straight at Killian.

“Yuh huh,” he answered, a noncommittal agreement that only seemed to frustrate the other two people at the table.

“Emma didn’t tell anyone you were coming.” “I'm aware of that also.” “Why do you think that is?”

David nearly dropped his mug and choked on his coffee and his feet landed back on the laminate flooring quickly, head snapping up as he stared at Ruby with wide, disbelieving eyes. She shrugged.

“And,” Ruby pressed on, seemingly undeterred by anything at this point, including whatever noise Granny was making behind the counter. She waved her hand over her shoulder, gaze never leaving Killian and he could feel his face getting warmer by the second. “If memory serves, that was the first time she’s been spotted down at the docks.” “Why is that something you know?” Killian asked, twisting around in the booth and swinging his legs up across the padded seat.

Ruby’s smile widened and she made a noise in the back of her throat – it wasn’t really an answer. “It’s a small town,” she said. “People talk.” “Like you? Currently?” “There’s no one else in here.” “Your grandmother is here. And she sounds fairly insistent that you come talk to her.” “You know, new guy, I’m getting the distinct impression you’re trying to get rid of me.” “Would I do that?” “You tell me.” Killian shook his head. “I’m just here because Swan asked me to be here,” he mumbled, far too aware that he wasn’t making a particularly strong case for not being head over heels in love with Emma Swan. “That’s it.” “Yuh huh,” Ruby said, echoing his not-quite-response response from just a few minutes before. It felt longer. This might be the longest conversation in the history of the world.

And Granny was still making that noise from behind the counter, the sound practically ricocheting off the walls of the otherwise empty diner.

Storybrooke, it seemed, appeared to have shut down completely for this wedding.

Or, at least, shut down enough that they could all come together in some banquet hall and talk about Killian and Emma’s relationship. Is that what it was? It had to be, right? Sure. He’d told her about Liam. He’d told her about Milah.

They made out in the woods – and the docks and her bedroom and that small patch of sidewalk just outside the banquet hall.

No wonder the entire town was talking.

“You seem unconvinced,” Killian said, nodding towards Ruby’s crossed arms like he was pointing out something earth-shattering.

Maybe. If he was actually in a relationship.

He was far too tired for this conversation.

Ruby twisted her lips and her body, tightening her arms and recrossing her legs as she balanced on the edge of the chair she was still sitting in. And David might have been a statue carved entirely out of stone for everything he’d contributed to this conversation.

“I don’t know what to think of you, new guy,” Ruby said and Killian wondered when they’d landed on that particular nickname. He wasn’t entirely certainly he liked it. “You show up like some kind of wonder and you know I heard you carried her luggage off the train?” Killian nodded, not sure what to actually say to something like that. It didn’t seem to matter – Ruby wasn’t even close to being done yet.

“And another thing, new guy,” she continued, pulling the chair closer to the edge of the table until her knees were nearly brushing up against his still-outstretched feet. “How come you didn’t ask for my help when it came to coming up with that great, big romantic extravaganza you planned the other day?”

David moved – choking on coffee again and slumping forward a bit in his seat, resting his forearms on the table. He stared at Ruby like he’d never seen her before and Granny had, finally, moved from behind the counter.

That seemed like a step in the right direction – the direction being this conversation ending. And maybe getting more coffee.

“Well, it’s true,” Ruby muttered, pushing her hair behind her ears with more drama than Killian was aware existed in the entire world. “Explanation.” “What kind of explanation could there be?” Killian asked. He glanced at David, not quite sure what kind of support he was looking for, but certain he wasn’t going to get any – not when he was pressed into the corner of the booth, desperately trying to avoid Ruby’s critical glare.

“I heard it went well,” Granny said, appearing next to Ruby as quickly as if she’d teleported there. “C’mon Ruby, leave the poor boy alone.” Killian’s eyes widened and for half a moment he actually forgot that he was exhausted and he’d run out of coffee – stunned silent at the idea of being a poor boy or even a boy in general. He couldn’t remember the last time anyone had called him that.

And, well, that was a bit too depressing to spend too long lingering on.

Ruby heaved a dramatic sigh, twisting her lips and shaking her hair back over her shoulders. Granny tapped on her shoulder impatiently, throwing what Killian assumed was a supportive smile – and maybe a wink – his direction before making her way back to the counter, Ruby’s heels echoing in her wake.

Killian took a deep breath, running a hand over his face and he hoped he didn’t look quite as exhausted as he felt.

“She took the coffee,” David muttered under his breath, rolling his head onto his shoulder.

“Of course she did,” Killian answered and he tried not to actually groan out the words. Or maybe yawn them out.

He hadn’t really gotten a ton of sleep.

David seemed to realize that, eyes narrowing slightly and Killian could practically see the metaphorical light bulb go off over his head.

“Should I be worried about you?” David asked, like those words were supposed to make sense in that particular order.

“I have no idea what you’re talking about,” Killian said honestly. He sat up a bit straighter, pushing his hand through his hair and trying to make sure the chain around his neck didn’t inadvertently strangle him when he moved.

Emma’s hand had moved over it the night before, shifting slightly in her sleep and her fingers had hit the band and the chain and the links had pressed against his skin and Killian knew, right then, he wasn’t going to get any sleep.

And that he might be hopelessly all in on this. Aurora was going to be very frustrating about that.

She probably already knew.

Killian definitely already knew – had known for months, known weeks before she’d asked him to come with her to Maine as friends , known, probably, as soon as she’d explained the bar tradition and David had toasted her in the back corner of that dimly lit room.

Jeez.

“I’m serious,” David continued, apparently unaware of whatever mental breakdown Killian was staging in the corner of one of the booths in Granny’s restaurant. “I mean you show up at my house, which, how did you even figure that out by the way?” “Is that what you’re worried about?” Killian asked and he appreciated David’s soft groan of indignation more than he probably should have.

“God, you’re infuriating, you know that?” “You know, something, I think I’m growing on you.” David rolled his eyes, leaning around the corner of the booth to shout at Ruby about the distinct lack of coffee at their table. Killian wasn’t really sure of the specifics – wasn’t even certain they were supposed to be in Granny’s at the moment, but David had shown up at Emma’s house that morning with a plan and the plan, apparently, included Granny’s.

It also appeared Granny’s was the only place open in the entire village of Storybrooke.

“How’d you find my house?” David asked again. Ruby, of course, had appeared at precisely that moment, freshly brewed pot of coffee in her hand and something that looked like curiosity carved onto every single inch of her face.

“Elsa,” Killian said. “As soon as I decided where we were going.” “I can’t believe you took her to Bella Notte,” Ruby muttered, but Killian thought he heard something a bit wistful in her tone. “That’s just like other levels of cliche.” “I’m pretty sure she liked it.” “Oh I’ve got no doubt.” Granny shouted something again and David hadn’t blinked in days, staring straight ahead even after Ruby left. She left the coffee pot that time.

Killian just tried not to actually yawn in anyone’s face.

“You look tired,” David observed, twisting his tie until the knot was half done.

“You’re just going to have re-tie that,” Killian pointed out. David shrugged, undoing the top button of his collar as well and this wedding had to be happening soon.

He hoped this wedding would happen soon.

“So you asked Elsa about what to do then?” David continued and Killian got the distinct impression he was working his way down some sort of question list. He probably wrote it out. Killian made a mental note to remember to tell Emma that – if only to see how long she made fun of David for – but then remembered the thin ice they were skating or the fine line they were walking or whatever metaphor worked for whatever situation they were currently in.

No one had actually said relationship.

And they had to go back to New York the next day.

“I did,” Killian said, realizing he hadn’t actually answered when David coughed pointedly from the other side of the table. “Strangely enough it’s tough to plan things when you’re not certain where anything is in a town.” “But you asked to plan the date, I heard you.”

“Eavesdropping, then?” “Neither one of you was really trying to hide the conversation. I mean Emma did a bit of barging in here.” “I wouldn’t tell her that’s what you called it.” David laughed, dragging his thumb around the curve of the coffee mug sitting in front of him. “Yeah, that’s probably a good idea.” “I’m still not certain where you’re going with this,” Killian said and it felt a bit like admitting to grand larceny.

“I’m just saying. You borrowed my mom’s car, you asked Elsa about stuff, you look like you haven’t gotten any sleep in the last couple of days. I don’t know. I’m just putting two and two together.” “And coming up with five.” “What?”

Killian groaned – ignoring the way Ruby’s eyes seemed to light up at the sound – and did his best to ignore the impulse to rub the back of his left hand. He tapped his fingers on the table instead, humming slightly while he tried to figure out what exactly to say.

“No,” he said and that wasn’t really an explanation.

“No,” David repeated, making the word sound like a question and an explanation all at the same time. “I don’t get it.”

“God, you’re dense.” “I let you borrow my mom’s car!” “Your mom let me borrow her car and it was returned in pristine condition with all of her radio presets in tact.”

“She did appreciate that,” David mumbled grudgingly and Killian smiled before he could stop himself.

“Good. And I appreciate the car.”

David hummed in the back of his throat and the metaphorical gears in his head nearly made audible noise in the middle of the otherwise abandoned diner. The tie was a lost cause completely now, simply hanging around his neck with one side dragging longer than the other. It almost made Killian nervous.

Almost.

He was trying to avoid that train of thought too.

“I’d like to come up with another question other than whether or not I should be worried about you,” David said slowly, staring at his hands and he kept trying to crack his knuckles. “But I can’t think of any other words so I’ll ask you again. Should I be worried about you?” Killian lowered one eyebrow. “Probably not,” he answered and it sounded a bit like a question. Goddamnit.

“See, that didn’t sound very convincing.” “Is this some sort of weird, if you hurt her, I’ll kill you type of thing?” “No,” David said, visibly trying to hold in the laughter threatening at the back of his voice. It didn’t really work. “The opposite in fact.” “Wait, what?” “Well, no I take that back. Because I will absolutely kill you if you do anything even remotely stupid and I know people who can make that all look like an accident. And then, for good measure, Mary Margaret will probably dig you up out of whatever grave you’re in and kill you for good measure as well.” Killian’s laugh was shaky at best, but he was mostly impressed and he couldn’t quite remember the last time anyone had threatened him in defense of someone else’s honor. It felt a bit antiquated and ancient and it almost made sense in this tiny town where everything shut down when one person got married.

“Noted,” Killian said. “And good.” “Good?” He nodded, tongue pressed against the inside of his cheek, and David was staring more intently than he had the entire morning – and there’d been a lot of staring.

“Emma deserves to have people who care about her like that,” Killian said softly, wincing slightly when he heard a crash from the direction of the counter.

“Sorry, sorry,” Ruby muttered and her voice came without the presence of a visible body, crouched over whatever it was she had dropped.

Granny nearly knocked the door off its hinges when she came out of the kitchen, moving far quicker than her gray hair would have suggested she was capable of, but she didn’t quite sigh when she saw the mess behind the counter. She just looked at Killian and David and nodded once.

It almost felt a bit like approval.

“Listen,” Killian said sharply. “There’s no need for the threats, as well intentioned as they might be. It’s not something you really need to worry about.”

Ruby made some sort of noise that sounded a bit like ooooh and David hissed in a breath of air, shaking his head before Killian had even finished his point.

“See, that’s where you’re wrong. Because while my addition might not be getting me to five quite yet, and I understood what you were saying, so don’t make that face, we’re almost there and I couldn’t tell you the last time that happened.” “You’re still not making much sense.” “Then let me finish.” Killian felt his lips tick down – impressed finding its way onto his features and David huffed out the air he’d just breathed in a few moments before. “Emma is happy. And you’re exhausted, obviously, which I’m trying not to think about or apply mathematical metaphors to, but you’re here and and you didn’t mess up the presets and that means...something. So I am asking, well, no, I’m telling you. Don’t mess this up because Emma might be happy, but she’s also a bit terrified.”

And that might have been part of the reason he hadn’t fallen asleep in the first place.  

Killian was in, all in, in some sort of slightly overwhelming, vaguely terrifying way that he’d been certain of since the rum and the Storybrooke Mirror and he’d tried to prove it – in a way that was just a bit juvenile and almost as overwhelming – with a date and being in Storybrooke and making sure they didn’t rush into anything.

He wanted to. He wanted to dive in and maybe drown a little bit and he’d lost control of this metaphor completely.

“I know that,” Killian muttered, downing the rest of his coffee. It had gone cold. There was another metaphor in there. “But here’s the thing, this isn’t just some sort of thing . Whatever we become, it’s up to her as much as it is me.”

David didn’t say anything and for one vaguely crazy, sleep-deprive moment Killian was concerned the entire diner had actually frozen. And then David nodded slowly, inching across his face and Ruby was standing up again, pushing her arms into her coat as Granny ushered them towards the door.

“You can stay new guy,” Ruby said. “And make sure you get Emma to dance later.”

[auburnfamilynews]

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off two big ranked wins for the Auburn Tigers basketball team, it would be easy to expect a top 10 ranking this week in the AP Poll. At 21-2 on the season and first place in the SEC, the Tigers have one of the best resumes in the country. Nobody but the most elite teams go undefeated in the regular season, and two road losses to KenPom top 100 teams can be forgiven, right?

Apparently not.

Auburn still sits at #11 in the AP Poll, same as last week. If the AP Poll picked the bracket, and they don’t, Auburn would be in line for a #3 seed. Does Auburn deserve to be behind an 18-5 Seton Hall team, or a 20-3 Duke team that stole an OT win away from a pretty bad UNC team?

If you ask AP voter Jesse Newell, the answer is yes, and it’s not all that close.

Hopefully this will answer many questions before they come: Auburn is 24th in my AP ballot this week. Yes, that’ll be lower than any other voter. Here’s how I got there ...

— Jesse Newell (@jessenewell) February 10, 2020

Yikes. I’m sure the Auburn internet handled that well. Let’s check in.

Dude the game was a year ago. Get over it already AU whipped KU. It happens. Let it go.

— JB (@DJwolfmanjbeezy) February 10, 2020

pic.twitter.com/zuUZxIO3pb

— Jess wants DERRICK BROWN @7 (@JessicaKTx) February 10, 2020

This dude is so proud of being the worst AP voter that he wrote a nine-tweet thread about it. https://t.co/nmx7x3k87u

— Auburn Hoops Fan Account (@aubawn) February 10, 2020

pic.twitter.com/5CpJroWDSJ

— A Progressive Auburn Fan (@ZainHarrison84) February 10, 2020

Here’s the thing, though. If I were to have an AP ballot, I would probably have Auburn in a similar spot. Especially if I had no bias towards Auburn.

The AP Poll isn’t the comittee trying to build a bracket, and it has no rules regarding how voters are supposed to vote. If someone wants to rank teams based on quality instead of resume, they’re more than welcome to do so, and I’d argue that’s probably the best way to do a “power ranking” of sorts.

I’ll let Mr. Newell explain his process in his own words:

“I look at five predictive rankings for my poll each week while trying to rank the “best” teams. Auburn is 30th KenPom, 36th Torvik, 14th Sagarin, 20th BPI and 24th Team Rankings. Tigers this week were great example of how these systems work. Then, AU was expected to beat LSU at home by 4. It won by one. So was worse than expectations … and the team moved down to 30th.

The way the advanced numbers look at it, it was a good week for Auburn, but the team didn’t necessarily perform much better than a team in the mid-20s would be expected to do. Every game is a chance to move up/down, based on expectations. Auburn is liked more by Sagarin, BPI and Team Rankings. It’s the reason I look at multiple systems … just to make sure I’m not missing outliers. Only one of those has Tigers in top 15. So 24 feels about right.

The bottom line: I’m working on the belief that teams don’t have complete control in close games. Eventually, a bad call or unfortunate roll of the ball will go against teams. Best teams, then, are ones who dominate on per-possession basis to avoid those close games altogether. AU has a spectacular resume. It’s a big reason why the Tigers were a 3 seed in the first bracket release. Team deserves credit for winning every close game. The way I do it, though, is by ranking best teams not best resumes. Thus, the difference between me and many others.”

He’s right. Most of the advanced metric systems have Auburn in the 20’s or 30’s despite the resume, largely because Auburn has played so many close games. If you ignored the final win/loss result and just looked at the stats that trend closely with winning and losing, you would think Auburn went 2-2 the past two weeks at best. If Auburn were playing like an elite, top 10 team, they wouldn’t have had to complete double digit comebacks in the second haves of each of the last four games.

Auburn is #1 in the country in luck, per KenPom, where luck is an attempt to measure the deviation in winning percentage via the team’s predictive stats versus its actual win percentage. Auburn is a whopping +16.4%. This means that KenPom would expect Auburn to have a winning percentage 16.4% lower than they currently due, judged solely on their offensive and defensive performance in the “Four Factors” stats (eFG%, Turnover%, OR%, and FTA/FGA). To flesh that out, KenPom would expect Auburn to have a winning percentage of 74.9% (roughly a 17-6 record) instead of its current 91.3%.

I’d also like to point that Jesse should be commended for his openness regarding his process. Too often, we as fans see a crazy ballot from a media member who is under no obligation to tell anyone why they voted the way they did, leaving us to speculate if they even pay attention to any teams besides their own.

Here’s the dirty little (pretty obvious) secret - they don’t.

Beat reporters in spend all of their working hours (and then some) watching, reporting, interviewing, investigating (and on and on) ONE team, and possibly some of the opponents on their team’s schedule.

Using multiple other methods to inform yourself on the quality of other teams is, in my view, the most responsible way to vote. So cheers to you Mr. Newell.

And good luck with Twitter.

from College and Magnolia - All Posts https://www.collegeandmagnolia.com/2020/2/10/21131804/auburn-11-in-ap-poll-and-thats-okay-jesse-newell-tigers-basketball