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rahuratna · 4 months ago

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Hi Rahu!!! My Nanami-loving, schmutt-reading, STEM-girlie, critical-thinker friend! Today I bring up a character who I have been actively avoiding thinking about: the one and only Satoru Gojo.

My overall reactions to Gojo are very mixed. Season one, I didn’t really pay him any mind. Season two, his his fighting scenes though 🫣🫣🫣 Let’s say I finally understood the appeal.

This morning (it is 3 AM), I’d like to discuss Gojo’s perceived loneliness. Maybe another time, when I take a deeper dive into how Gojo’s powers actually work, we could talk about calculus? But these are just fragmented thoughts floating around my head. I just have random questions on when Gojo had to learn calculus for his technique (he seems like the type to sleep through the lessons… did Yaga force him to study??) and what happens if you duplicate a Gojo and divide his infinity by another infinity. You get indeterminate and what happens then?

Uhh, anyways 🙂‍↕️

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Context: For me, I found it really hard to see Gojo as an individual person. Until recently, I only really payed attention to Gojo and Geto as a pair. That’s why I want to take some time to look at things through Gojo’s perspective of the transition to independence… because I’ve been actively procrastinating thinking about it despite drawing thirst traps of him—

Question: Is Gojo lonely? At first I said yes, but my only reason was because I solely focused on what he doesn’t have: Geto. And that’s quite simplistic of me. I didn’t acknowledge the type of relationships he had with his colleagues and his students because I only viewed Gojo as half of a pair to Geto. That is why I would like to revisit the reasons why I (and perhaps other members of the JJK community) think that Gojo is lonely, specifically through a comparative, discourse, thematic analysis the lenses of his different relationships.

Discussion: I think about how in our previous discussion, we talked about how Gojo did not need Geto anymore as a moral compass after the Riko incident. In this way, Gojo outgrew his friendship with Geto not only because of their different values (remember how their ideologies were always opposite of each others), but rather because of the extent to which they commit themselves to their ideals. This means that Gojo would not change who he is and his beliefs for Geto. It shows the beginning of Gojo’s independence as he becomes more rooted in the cause he fights for.

Is this independence— through motives and strength— a big factor into this perceived loneliness? Yes, I think so. He lost Geto because of the magnitude of their commitment to different beliefs, and his strength mitigates any room for reliance/codependence of his colleagues. But it also brings up the following question: to what extent does Gojo create meaningful connections with others besides Geto, and how does this change the initial hypothesis of perceived loneliness?

It is 4:00 AM and I am a slow and exhausted… so I’ll leave the conversation pretty much open and on this note:

I think it’s easy for an outside observer to compare Gojo’s connection with Geto with the one he had to his peers and his students. It initially seems so small compared to the enormity of what Gojo and Geto were. But that isn’t necessarily true. Here, the value of the different types of relationships we have are subjective. If I were to make a guess, Gojo does not undervalue his other relationships even if he’s not as close to them. He does not consciously put the value of relationships on a scale trying to determine which is more meaningful and which is less. Especially with his students. This is why I think that perhaps I had previously overestimated perceived loneliness. It was because of a narrow-minded outlook focusing only on loss rather than what he gained.

That’s it for now, but perhaps when I wake up I’ll be adding a couple more ideas that I missed in the comments. In general, I don’t think I added much that was insightful… it was more sort of a detailed prompt. But I think that’s cool too since I love hearing about what you have to say! Happy Friday, Rahu, and enjoy the weekend ahead!

Courtney 🧡💜

Hi Courtttttt!! @courtneedsleep *rubs hands* It's time to chat about Gojo! But seriously, thank you for this. I've been actively looking for a proper outlet to explore my own thoughts on this man, and you have PROVIDED. And I would LOVE a deep dive into the calculus, but I'm going to leave that for another juicy analysis, since this is one is already pretty long.

I definitely saw the appeal of his character from the beginning, but like you, didn't really feel particularly attached to him. He was charming. He was funny. Obviously very powerful and exceptionally confident in his own abilities.

In the beginning, I didn't perceive him as particularly lonely, considering the flippancy with which he seemed to process deeper emotions. It was during the exchange event arc that I began to see the layers to his character.

The concern he showed for his students seemed overshadowed by his own devil-may-care attitude, but later highlighted the faith he had in their abilities. Outwardly, he seemed flippant, as always. But when I re-watched, in the context of what I learned about his character later, his actions took on a new significance.

It starts with his training of Yuuji and Yuuta. Gojo specifically selects these boys who are marked as pariahs, even in the jujutsu world, for the power and potential for great destruction they represent. He devotes himself to their training and shows delight at their development. I realised, as I continued watching, that this delight wasn't so much directed at the evolution of their power, but the evolution of their souls and characters, things he knew would be singularly defining in their development as the powerful sorcerers they became.

Yuuji and Yuuta were later able to overcome fear, uncertainty, their own weaknesses and more importantly, embrace their own weaknesses in order to become not just very strong, but utterly exceptional sorcerers in their own right. A lot of this was not just due to Gojo's mentorship, but his unwavering belief in them.

On my first watch of season 1, I thought that he showed disappointingly little reaction when Yuuji 'died' after having his heart ripped out. Now knowing just what kind of losses Gojo suffered over time, and the brutal nature of the world of sorcery, I understand better just how much gravity he expressed when he thought that Yuuji was dead.

This brings me to the subject of his loneliness. You're absolutely right about the tendency to view him and Geto as a 'pair', and thus weave their character development inextricably together in our minds. I also had this tendency, when I started watching season 2, but I suppose my awareness of the potential depth of Gojo's character left me looking for more. I wanted to see this formative stage in his evolution as a sorcerer, how what happened with Geto might have transformed his thought processes on many things in the jujutsu world.

The significance of Geto to Gojo, and vice versa, cannot be understated. It is obvious, from their interaction, how much they valued and respected each other, and were also kindred spirits looking to right wrongs in jujutsu society. As we touched on in a previous discussion, the rift came after Riko's death, and the manner in which they both processed that.

Gojo's independence, as much as it is flaunted, also has its limits. Throughout the time I noted the rift with Geto forming, I also wondered how much of Gojo's change also occurred because of the subtle brainwashing that came with being openly acknowledged (and self aware) as the 'strongest sorcerer' of modern times. In the end, he truly did become a weapon, as tragic a fate as the one suffered by Geto. His fierce belief that he HAD to enact some form of change in the jujutsu world was also a form of conditioning, based on his abilities. It was much easier for everyone to identify the flaws in Geto's thinking because he was on the wrong side. The curse user side.

Gojo's loneliness is apparent, but not because he doesn't have real connections, or people who care for him (and people he cares for). His interaction with Nanami, for me, is one that highlights this. Gojo's power is terrifying to those not on the same side, as seen in the Shibuya arc, where an entire plan (and many sacrifices) were foreseen by the enemy, simply to seal him away. And yet, he places so much value on leaving Yuuji in the care of a sorcerer like Nanami, someone strong, intelligent and competent, but not in the same league as Gojo, power-wise.

Why? Because, as we learn, Gojo does value compassion, heart, dedication to a cause, and the lives of the younger generation, all qualities and beliefs enshrined in the core of what makes Nanami the type of sorcerer he is. Gojo cares for Nanami and values him as a friend, not just because he is one of the old guard, but because he genuinely cherishes everything that Nanami represents as a sorcerer and a human being. He may have irritated the living daylights out of Nanami, but at the end of it all, they had each other to fall back on, when all else in the world of sorcery failed the very tenets of what they believed was right.

So, in what way was Gojo truly lonely? In the way that reaching the rarefied heights of true power can make you. He was alone in ability, in the precocious genius of sorcery he was, in the role he was subconsciously forced to take on as a natural result of what he represented in jujutsu society. Returning to the idea of his conditioning, he could have taken no responsilbility at all, maybe even followed the same path as Geto. But he didn't. Not even the bone-deep kinship he felt for Geto could turn him away from his core beliefs and the role he knew he needed to play, not just for others, but for his own peace of mind.

One could say that Gojo's loneliness was self-imposed, in a sense. One could also take some comfort in the fact that this self-imposed isolation was precisely because of how much he cared for and valued those around him.

Gojo knew how much his students, colleagues and friends valued him. He knew the sacrifices they'd have to make, in order to survive the brutal world they existed in. He knew that like him, they'd experience loss, death (in some cases, their own), fear, moments of hopelessness, defeat and overwhelming odds. He also knew, with some unerring certainty, that they would rise above those challenges and face their fates with courage, dignity and the fierce hope that is born from experiencing true despair.

How did he know this? One can only speculate. I do think, however, that it stemmed from a torch he had passed on, an unquenchable fire, a tenacity that showcases itself clearly in his students and successors. Gojo had such faith that his will would be passed on, that they would win. In this, he was never truly alone.

Thank you for yet another beautiful analysis and ask (I rambled so much with this one, because I have so many THOUGHTS) and I appreciate all the analytical meals you feed me!

#jujutsu kaisen #jjk #gojo satoru #jjk gojo #gojo analysis #gojo headcanons #nanami kento #itadori yuuji #jjk character analysis #jjk characters #rahu answers #rahu writes

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gatheringbones · 1 year ago

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[“Listen to me: It is not gauche to write about trauma. It is subversive. The stigma of victimhood is a timeworn tool of oppressive powers to gaslight the people they subjugate into believing that by naming their disempowerment they are being dramatic, whining, attention-grabbing, or else beating a dead horse. By convincing us to police our own and one another’s stories, they have enlisted us in the project of our own continued disempowerment.

Believe me, I wish this horse was dead. Take a few of many, many such statistics in a grossly underreported set of crimes: the National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey recently found that 13.1 percent of lesbians, 46.1 percent of bisexual women, and 17.4 percent of heterosexual women have been raped, physically assaulted, or stalked. According to RAINN (Rape, Abuse & Incest National Network), an American is sexually assaulted every sixty-eight seconds, and one in six women the victim of rape or attempted rape. TGQN (transgender, genderqueer, nonconforming) students are more often sexually assaulted than non-TGQN students. Indigenous Americans are twice as likely to experience a sexual assault as an American of any other race.

Just as the justice system was not designed to protect or enact justice for all (and often was designed to protect those with the most power from their harms against those with less), the values of literary publishing were not designed to support or promote all stories. This has been shifting in recent years, but I have learned not to overestimate the speed of institutional change. A little bit after a long time of nothing can be easy to mistake for more than it is. Still, the dominant culture tells us that we shouldn’t write about our wounds and their healing because people are fatigued by stories about trauma? No. We have been discouraged from writing about it because it makes people uncomfortable. Because a patriarchal society wants its victims to be silent. Because shame is an effective method of silencing.

I used to scoff at memoirs and I was embarrassed to admit that I had started writing one. It was a serious book, I insisted regularly, not only concerned with my experience but with ideas. Now, this practice strikes me as similar to how, as a lifelong feminist who prefers sex and partnerships with women, I have been insisting for my entire life that I’m not an angry man-hating lesbian. That I hate the systems, not the people. Of course I do not hate every man. The very fact that I, and so many women, are compelled to incessantly reassure them of this is more evidence of our continued oppression.”]

melissa febos, from body work: the radical power of personal narrative, 2022

#melissa febos #brainspace #cw rape #currently reading

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eobarried · 1 year ago

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i think that when we talk about earth 42 miles morales, there’s more important things to consider than just “is he a villain or a hero” and here’s why:

1. disregarding thematic elements, let’s look at things logically first. og miles and 42 miles diverge when the spider bites. that means that BOTH of them were accepted to visions academy (we see this in one of spot’s flashbacks to the spider, where it was about to bite 42 miles). 42 miles wouldn’t have been accepted to visions if his father had died already, bc it’s a boarding school and his mom would have wanted him to stay at home. at this point, they have a similar starting point

2. 42 miles attending visions (likely briefly), is important and thematic. visions academy, as a prestigious charter school focusing on academics, represents being a productive asset (being a good student, good employee, working WITH the system). it is presented by miles’s parents as opposite to uncle aaron, who disregards this traditional approach to success in a capitalist society. actually, the fact that 42 miles was almost bitten while he was in school (as opposed to og miles, who was bitten while he was with his uncle aaron), thematically aligns 42 miles more with his father than his uncle aaron. this is important, because jefferson believes in the american dream and proving one’s self through merit. if 42 miles believes that, it means he has a different viewpoint than og miles, who believes that everyone is deserving of greatness.

3. stereotypes are important in this movie. let’s talk about miguel now. he specifically calls og miles an anomaly. an anomaly doesn’t mean a “universe breaking threat” - if you’ve read anything scp related, anomalies are just things that are strange. they don’t fit in or make sense within the universe. in this sense, the universe is the “canon” - the fact that miguel uses that word is a clue that what miles doesn’t fit into is not only the “storyline associated with spiderman” but also “the storyline associated with a young black man.”

4. when we look at og miles as a spider-person, the “storyline” he refuses to fit into has to do with loss and struggle. everyone around him says: you are spiderman. spiderman has to experience loss, trauma, and pain in order to become a better hero. so you do too. thematically, this connects to miles as a young black man. people around him (like his school counselor) assume that he has to have experienced hardship and struggled in order to fit a certain mold. it calls back to they stereotypes we have surrounding black stories: that in order for them to do well in front of white audiences, that there has to be pain and suffering and hardship and loss. og miles rejects this stereotype and wants to “do his own thing” - tell an authentic story without reliance on pain and struggle.

5. how does this connect to e42 miles? well, miguel says that 42 miles was supposed to be spiderman, not miles. that 42′s storyline is more stereotypical and fitting - both as a spiderman, but also as a young black man. this makes sense with what we see of him - he has lost his father, and had to drop out of a prestigious school to be with his mother. he was forced to grow up faster than miles - which is why he physically looks older (perhaps also referring to the fact that white people often overestimate the ages of black boys). even without becoming spiderman, his storyline is what a white audience would expect to see of a young black male protagonist. what miguel calls canon, we as audiences would call “stereotypical” “safe” or “expected.” these are stories we have seen over and over again (like spiderman) and that are familiar to us. they don’t make us question things. they don’t undermine our own beliefs and values. perhaps they present a sob story of a young man who was failed by the system (e42) or perhaps they’re the story of a young man who was able to pull himself up, and through effort and merit became what no one else thought he could be (og miles)

6. but, according to miguel’s logic, both miles have broken canon. og miles wasn’t supposed to have his story told in the first place. 42 miles was - but it hasn’t been. both miles have now broken canon, because neither of their stories are what they were supposed to be. we’ve seen the way in which miles broke canon - despite proving himself to be a competent spiderman, he’s still been rejected, breaking the mold of “young man who pulls himself up by earning himself a place in the american dream.” that can’t be his story, because it isn’t true - he didn’t pull himself up. he had a whole community of people - both spider and not - who helped him along the way. his story isn’t one of personal success, it’s a story about community.

7. and in order to solidify the themes surrounding these movies, that means that 42 miles has to have done something similar. but if 42 miles has similar beliefs to his father, that complicates things. if he believes that that a person’s worth is proven by merit, than he would resent miles for being bitten by his spider, because he knows that if he had that chance, he would have been just as good of a spiderman. and if he had been fated (or canon) to be bitten, then he would resent miles even more for taking that opportunity away from him. this is similar to visions academy - 42 miles won the lottery - he had luck. then he passed the entrance exam - he proved his merit. but circumstances meant he had to leave the school to take care of his mother, and he lost his chance to prove his worth to society. not only did he lose the opportunity to tell his story (he did not become spiderman, the movie isn’t “about” him), but in the world of the film, he’s unable to achieve greatness because not only was he unable to attend a prestigious school, but the community around him is now crime-ridden and crumbling because of his lack of opportunity.

8. miles would likely feel guilty about his opportunity, but also frustrated at the same time. why should their only be one spider between the two of them? why is there only one story that can be told? why is there only one version of the black experience that can be shared to a broader audience? why can’t he do both?

9. what’s more important than 42 miles being a hero or a villain or whatever... is that he’s a person. he’s a kid, like og miles. he is miles - just like miles, he found someone that shouldn’t exist and immediately tied them to uncle aaron’s punching bag. yes, 42′s rope is stronger and his knots are tighter, but he’s still miles. and i think that hopefully, and i don’t know how everything will play out, but i really hope that through this story, 42 miles finds a way to understand and lift up his community on his own - in his own way. without the luck of a lottery or a spider bite. without a superhero swooping in to save the day. without having to prove himself through merit and claw himself out of a bad situation alone. but, like og miles - asking for help. admitting that he doesn’t know how to do these things, or fix his community. working together with those he loves to better the city that he loves. that - that’s what’s important about e42 miles. because he’s not just miles - he’s us.

#Spiderverse #across the spiderverse #across the spider-verse spoilers #into the spider verse #when i say he's us i mean he also lives in a universe without a 'spiderman' per say #i think he's supposed to represent our own universe and provide commentary on how to support and uplift our communities #so yeah #meta analysis

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thatfrenchacademic · 2 years ago

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Do you feel that ChatGPT will change the education system in a good way or will it continually be frustrating as it gets more advanced?

Asking as a student getting real tired of having to compete with other students who do use ChatGPT on essays and claim its the way of the future.

Hello !

Oof, you are actually asking this as personnally, I am still trying to make up my mind about it.

I was talking about it with a friend recently, and we concluded that just as with any technological (r)evolution, AI as a whole will have benefits, at the cost of trade-offs ; but there is probably no point pretending it is not happening, or refusing to consider the advantages it might offer, simply because we are used to how things are now.

"Ceci détruira cela", said Hugo about the press and the wide availability of books destroying more traditional sources of moral and code of conducts such as religion. And he had a point, but only partially. The press, books, they are tools. They are a medium. They are not the content. If the content is strong enough, it survives the change in tools. Obsessing over tool means overestimating the medium and missing that the value lies in the content.

What will be continually frustrating, at least in University, is probably not ChatGPT itself. It is the use that is made of it by students who do not know better. Who think that ChatGPT will provide them content, when it is only a tool.

ChatGPT writes bad essays because it does not think. And at the end of the day, what we expect in my field at least, is for student to think, to mule over concepts and problems, from the abstract to the concrete, to be creative, innovative.

So I can see some changes that will be "for the best", through ChatGPT, more or less revolving around "now we can focus on the content, rather than what tool, the medium, the writing". that is obviously an over simplification - the writing and the content of the writing will never be fully separate. But I can see how students that struggle specifically with writing, but do have the content, would benefit from this (I am thinking : the slow writers, the ones that do not write well under time constraints, the non-native English speakers, the ones that overthink their writings to the point of barely writing anything...).

But there are trade-offs. Writing skills are valuable in and off themselves, and writing skills go beyond what ChatGPT can offer. Developing your own writing style, especially if you are going in a field where there will be a lot of writing, is invaluable, and we might lose a lot of that. It will be more and more difficult to see which student is using ChatGPT as a tool, the way we have normalized calculators and Grammarly, and which ones are acting in bad faith. And from a wider perspective, I am worries about students relying on AI-generated text without understanding how little we know about this technology, and therefore not knowing its inherent limits.

Anyway, ChatGPT is likely here to stay, and we will have to do more than just incorporating AI-detecting tools. It will be require us to rethink how we assess students, the format of exams and graded work... I want to see it as an opportunity to sit down and think "ok, what exactly am I trying to teach these students ? What is this skills that I want them to get that they cannot simply get by asking ChatGPT? and how can I assess that specifically"? The problem being of course that Universities, (senior) faculty members are famously slow-moving, and conservative in their academic practice. So it is likely to take time, time that neither us nor other students like you trying to figure out what they should do really have.

#yeah taht's nice #but that's not happening #I am really just still trying to figure things out here #I have been starting to think of ways that I could work WITH ChatGPT rather than against it #part of me will yearn for a non Chat-GPT time #it is the same part of me that still prefers writing with a fountain pen than typing #so I can easily say to myself #ask me things

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financehelpdesk2024 · 6 months ago

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Why Your Gut Feeling Might Be Wrong: Cognitive Biases in Capital Budgeting

Ever passed up a great investment opportunity because of a gut feeling, or jumped on a project that turned out to be a dud? You are not alone. Behavioral finance reveals how our brains are wired with biases that mess with our financial decisions. In capital budgeting, this can be costly. But by understanding these biases, we can make smarter choices.

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Behavioural finance is defined as the interdisciplinary field that aims to understand the behavior of individuals and its relationship with finance. This work describes the process of how cognitive bias, emotions, and social aspects influence people’s decision-making process in matters concerning money. It is important to differentiate behavioural finance from the standard finance theory, which established a notion that people think rationally and have complete information about the investment opportunity.

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Overconfidence Bias: This bias happens when someone feels they possess the information that is needed to do an investment, thus taking high risks. For instance, a student can buy shares in the latest fashion technological start-up firm without worrying about understanding how the firm operates solely on the basis of the belief that they know enough to make money out of the business. They overestimate the likelihood of their investment doing well, which can leave them open to huge losses if this is not the case.

Anchoring Bias: The first type of decision-making error is the anchoring bias where decision makers stay focused with the initial information they receive despite receiving other contradictory data. For example, a manager may set the initial value for a project and then continue to use this initial value in spite of updated information that can indicate the value of the project is too high. The first type of heuristics, in general, can result in biases and poor investment decisions since the initial anchor dominates the final assessment.

Loss Aversion Bias: This bias is an example of risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risks with equal, and sometimes even slightly negative, outcome. This in capital budgeting may lead the managers to reject potentially profitable investments due to insolvency of even a smaller amount of loss. For example, a manager might avoid a high-reward project due to a risk of a small failure in his/her mind even though the potential of receiving large rewards is high.

Herd Behavior: Gregarious behavior refers to a situation whereby an organization gives in to or mimics set industry standards instead of thinking critically on their own. One of the weaknesses of capital budgeting in the presence of this bias is that a company in a certain industry invests in a project merely because other players in the industry are investing in it. It can result in poor choices and resource allocation, and investments in the wrong direction, namely in the projects that are not of much strategic importance to the company.

Confirmation Bias: This type of self-deception involves filtering information in such a way that what one already thinks is right is confirmed while what is perceived as wrong is eliminated. In adjusting for capital budgeting, a manager can bring in only this or that piece of market information that bears the Harley’s initial feeling that this project has to work, while ignoring other data that may lead to the opposite conclusion. In SWOT analysis this can lead to a biased assessment of the projects potential and create misleading investment decisions.

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The presence of Cognitive biases does affect the operation of capital budgeting decisions, although there are ways to manage and minimize its effects. Here are some effective approaches:

Awareness and Education: Cognitive biases should be first identified and then apprehend so that people avoid falling prey to such biases. It is recommended that behavioral finance is adopted as a recurring training exercise for producers of financial information within an organization with the goal of providing enhanced awareness of biases. For instance, organizing training sessions where ideas of how overconfidence, anchoring, and other biases affect decisions are explained can help team members learn how and when such biases creep into the process and how to avoid them in the course of practicing their work.

Diversified Teams: To some extent, the idea that more heads are better than one can indeed be a driving force, particularly because it fosters a way to balance for the biases of a singular decision maker. Holding meetings that involve other members from different departments or backgrounds in capital budgeting provides a number of benefits because there will be a wider perspective than that of a groupthink. For example, inviting participants from the finance or marketing department, as well as from the operations team, etc., can give a more in-depth assessment of the possible projects.

Structured Decision-Making Processes: There can be structured procedures and documentation of how projects have to be evaluated where possible standard techniques can be usefully employed. Essential mechanisms such as consistency of the evaluation systems that are standard for all projects help eliminate bias by ensuring each project is evaluated against the same set of standards consistently. It also facilitates more detached and considerably more rational course of appraising the information, which can lead to improved decision-making.

Quantitative Analysis and Tools: Decision making thus became more analytical as reliance on data and financial models gives organization less subjective basis to make decisions. Examining the above factors and using tools such as DCF and sensitivity analysis can give a measure of the possible profits that may arise from the project as well as its possible dangers. These tools help the decision-makers to make their evaluations driven by actual facts and figures, not guesses and gut feelings, making decision making on investments more rational.

External Reviews and Audits: Sometimes, it can be useful to get outside point of views on capital budgeting decisions and thus third-party opinions may be useful. Having external consultants review the bigger decisions planned can be useful in removing bias or such from given choices. For example, for an organization’s key investment plan, engaging an independent consultant on assessment of assumptions and forecast, may reveal missing risks or unrealistically low-cost estimates.

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psych0l0gical-effects · 2 years ago

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U10A5 SAT APR 8

Content:

-There are 3 primary decision-making heuristics: Representative heuristic, availability heuristic, and anchoring and adjustment- we fall victim to all of these in-person and over the internet!

-Representative heuristic: mental shortcuts that rely on how much something is represented (we tend to not remember what the actuality of things are, ie the truck driver/professor demonstration).

-Availability heuristic: salience of an idea or an event- if an idea is more available in our minds we tend to overestimate how much it actaully occurs (for example, if a teenager sees a few people post pictures of themselves drinking online, they tend to overestimate the probability of teens drinking alcohol)

-anchoring and adjustment: When we have a baseline (the anchor) and estimate around the baseline (for example, if the average number of hairs on someone's head is 80,000, and I know I have less hair than the average I will estimate I have 60,000 hairs on my head). This one is important to note that if the anchor is wrong, it can lead us down misinformed paths - especially online/in relation to anything with money!

Reflection:

Learning about decision-making heuristics has been a real eye-opener for me! I've realized that I'm guilty of relying on mental shortcuts like the representative heuristic, which often leads me to make snap judgments based on my expectations rather than actual evidence. And don't even get me started on the availability heuristic- it's crazy how our perceptions can be so skewed just because something is more salient in our minds. This must impact A LOT of college students, especially here at Madison where the drinking culture seems so big. Of the three, the anchoring and adjustment heuristic is the one that really hit home for me. I've definitely fallen into the trap of being anchored by certain values or prices, and it's led me to lose out on opportunities or money. It's so important to be mindful of our anchors, especially in our capitalistic society. Overall, understanding these decision-making heuristics has been a valuable reminder of the many biases that can impact my daily thinking. It's so important to be aware of my own tendencies, especially in today's digital world where we're constantly bombarded with information!

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tokiro07 · 2 years ago

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Cipher Academy ch.16 thoughts

[Joey Finds a New Favorite Character]

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you - The Drop

I was expecting to talk about how Iroha won the elimination round this week, as evidenced by how much importance I put on it last week, but in retrospect I was overestimating how much weight this moment had. This game was never treated with any more reverence than a simple game; Iroha never seemed worried about the possibility of losing and being knocked out of the running for class leading private, and the other players never seemed particularly antagonistic towards him. Karigane and Koshibai were treating it as a game from the start, and Mokumokuren and Mamushihishimeki were pretty quiet outside of the game itself. The conclusion of the game was fun and exciting as the solution to a murder mystery, but not a climactic battle that decides Iroha’s fate going forward; and that’s all it’s meant to be

But NOW!!! Nooow we have a definitive antagonist for the arc. Now we have a thematic foil for Iroha

I don’t remember if I’ve already mentioned this, but my main metric for assessing Jump manga is Jump’s three values: Friendship, Effort and Victory. Cipher Academy, with Iroha as its lead refusing to use the Glasses Weapon as a way to take shortcuts, is definitively an Effort series. Iroha’s entire character is centered around self-improvement through hard work and perseverance

And now, Anonymity’s first words are tantamount to “I cheated. What, you didn’t?” Anonymity establishes herself immediately as someone who does not value effort, at least not in the sense that anyone typically would. If she does, her sense of effort is more akin to “do whatever it takes” rather than “do it properly”

You may remember in chapter 8 when Toshusai said “it would be nice if disqualifications happened in real wars;” I believe this was meant to be a sort of thesis statement leading into this conflict. Anonymity won’t be disqualified for betraying the spirit of the game or for bad sportsmanship; she produced results that allowed her to surpass four other cipher soldiers by proving that she had the skill to covertly gather information quickly and efficiently, even being able to decipher ten codes of varying difficulty at a glance. Sure, she’s a jerk, but she won the battle with the skills that she was trained to use, making her an ideal soldier

Her argument is so sound, I can’t even say that she’s going to be proven wholly wrong by the end. For anyone who read Medaka Box, this is almost a perfect thematic parallel to the Flask Plan - Medaka and Hitoyoshi always took the hardest route they could to reach the end goal so that they could feel that they earned their results, so they could proud of who they were and crystalize their experiences for the future, but the Flask Plan was meant to create a shortcut for those whose efforts never seem to pan out, for the people whose bodies or minds prevent them from putting in the effort in the first place. Ultimately, Medaka couldn’t dismantle the Flask Plan’s goal or logic for being morally disagreeable, because objectively its goal was noble and would improve the world; the problem wasn’t the goal, but the means, as the experiments were willing to kill countless students in the school to achieve that goal. Medaka ultimately sanctioned and supported the Flask Plan, but only after ensuring that it would be carried out ethically and safely, after she knew that the end wasn’t being used to justify horrible means

Anonymity is absolutely right to have cheated in this scenario: the entire premise of this school is to cultivate information-gathering skills, and she undoubtedly thought that the rest of her group would do the same. She’s legitimately surprised that the other winners didn’t do what she did, because to her that was the game. I’m sure we’ll get more context for why her mentality is wrong and why fighting Iroha will be necessary to reform her, but in the end, I’m confident she’s going to be the same overall person with the same values, she’ll just change her approach slightly

All of Medaka’s enemies only really changed how they treated people or themselves, not who they were fundamentally, which is honestly a very Nisio Isin approach to character development; whatever happens with Anonymity, I’m willing to bet that she’s still going to value results over methods, but she’ll likely start being more respectful of others’ methods and learn that there is value in an honest, straight forward approach. Meanwhile, she’s probably also going to teach Iroha to be more willing to use what he has available to him when he needs it; this fight is probably going to be an analysis of the pros and cons of both approaches, and both will learn how to apply the lessons that the other teaches them in their own methods

But most importantly: Anonymity may well be the Kumagawa of the cast, using the exact opposite approach to the protagonist to fight enemies that the protagonist can’t use their normal methods to face in order to support the protagonist. Hopefully while saying buckwild shit to make her fun and interesting!

Also, I just want to thank Iwasaki for their art; Anonymity’s intro card is so intimidating while also being a fun subversion of the usual puzzle panels. She’s being framed as a puzzle, a problem to be solved, but one that can’t simply be gauged with the normal ranking system because she’s not going to play fair and she’s going to fight back. She crushes the star-rating system entirely in her bare hands, almost as if to say she’s a problem that can’t be solved

I also appreciate the call-back to “Class 1-A’s only X”, as it’s a great way to establish how much weight her introduction carries while also giving us a good gauge of her personality; “Class 1-A’s only ‘anything goes’ student.” I would have translated it as “sole wild card” myself, and I’d like to think Kumar would have too, but hey, Dan Luffey is doing a fine job so far, so I won’t knock points for simple word choice

I’m not claiming that it will be one-to-one, but the fight between Anonymity and Iroha is going to be the equivalent of Medaka vs. Unzen where everything gets a lot more serious and the themes of the story are put into stark, undeniable perspective, even if only for the moment and things calm down before the next conflict. How Toshusai and Yosaimura are going to impact the battle, I can’t say, but if I had to guess, Anonymity is going to prove just how much of a threat she really is by taking out Toshusai, as Iroha has already had a code battle with her and we have no context for Yosaimura’s capabilities as a code soldier, so it would make more sense for Iroha to face off against Yosaimura first

Of course, it could end up being a battle royale and we see how all four interact with each other at once, but I’m confident it will come down to Iroha and Anonymity

Or maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Iroha will beat Anonymity to gain the right to face Toshusai, the easy favorite for class leading private, bookending this introductory arc with Iroha proving that he no longer needs the Glasses Weapon to match Toshusai

This chapter filled me with so much excitement, I really hope that other readers feel the same and this build up helps elevate Cipher Academy’s standing in the polls. It’s been at the back of the magazine for a while now, but this might be exactly what it needs to turn that around. I’m sure we’ll get to see this fight reach its conclusion at least, but if it goes well, this will be what helps the series continue

To wrap up, I want to take the opportunity to go over the remaining cosplays, just because I think they’re fun.

Yugata lets her hair down and wears her coat over her shoulders to play Toshusai, riffing on her “you’ll be my manservant” threat from chapter 1

Oboro carries a little stuffed tiger (which is presumably hers) to play Mokumokuren, and even hides behind it to stifle her laughter. She’s so cute

Nohime styles her hair to cover her eye to resemble Hahakura

Umitsubame takes off her jacket entirely and puts on simple sunglasses to resemble Koshibai

Yosaimura borrows Mamushihishimeki’s bandana, presumably borrowing it from her since she’s wearing a hat instead at the moment

Nutaba wears Yosaimura’s goggles, which she took off to put on the bandana, but I’m willing to bet that playing in the ball basket is wholly a Nutaba thing

Kasuri holds up a chocolate bar to hide her eyes like Anonymity, PROVING that the censor bar is diegetic

Omomuro’s wearing Umitsubame’s (or rather, Oboro’s) star-glasses, which she definitely borrowed from her since Umitsubame is clearly wearing different glasses at the moment

Hahakura borrows Namasu’s mask, while Namasu manages to continue to cover her mouth because she’s playing Nohime and is able to borrow one of her poses

Yorokawa lets her hair down and wears glasses, which is kind of subtle, but can only really be Karigane

Anonymity and Botayama are a little hard to pin down because their cosplays are the most subtle, but they have to be Omomuro and Kasuri. I think that Botayama is Kasuri with her hair down, but she isn’t covering her face with it, so she might be just making the barest effort to resemble Omomuro’s short hair. Anonymity is covering her face, so this could be an extremely roundabout method of cosplaying Kasuri, but she’s specifically covering her face with bicycle chains, Omomuro’s signature weapon from chapter 1, implying that this is an overblown parody of Omomuro. But why she would do it that way when it’s so over the top and difficult to recognize, I have no idea. It’s not super important, but it compels me

I also think it’s worth noting that every group is laughing or having fun except for Group A, who are all looking at Anonymity with shock or disgust, which is pretty subtle foreshadowing that she was going to be the one to win from her group and that she was going to be a major threat going forward

I’m impressed I managed to finish this a few days early for once, but honestly I was so excited about this chapter that I just couldn’t wait any longer. And also I’m procrastinating on more important things, but that’s not important. This is the most excited I’ve been for a new chapter since the series began, so I’m expecting that the payoff will give me even more to say

Look forward to it!

#cipher academy #fouryearsandananime #4y1a reviews

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mostlysignssomeportents · 4 years ago

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Political economy vs inflation

As Biden lays out ambitious plans to stimulate the US economy and fight inequality with new money creation (spending) and money destruction (higher taxes on corporations, capital gains and the right), a firing squad of economists assembled to issue dire inflation warnings.

They're repeating the economic doctrine of the pasty 40 years, an austerity doctrine that focuses on the inflationary risks of "deficit spending" (when governments don't tax as much money out of the economy as they inject in the same year).

It's a doctrine that made a pretense to being a science, going to far as to create a fake "Nobel Prize" in economics in a bid for scientific credibility (the Nobel administrators eventually folded the economics prize into its administrative remit).

The "neoclassicals" used abstract equations to "prove" a bunch of economic truths that - purely coincidentally - made rich people much, much richer and poor people much, much poorer.

Tellingly, the most exciting development in economics of the past 50 years is "behavioral economics" - a subdiscipline whose (excellent) innovation was to check to see whether people actually act the way that economists' models predict they will.

(they don't)

It's this vain, discredited and shambolic group who have assembled behind leaders like Larry Summers to decry Biden's stimulus spending plans, insisting that we are flirting with hyperinflation and the collapse of the USD as a global reserve currency.

But economists aren't the last word in understanding stimulus and inflation. If you're trying to figure out whether Summers is right and inequality, poverty and crumbling infrastructure are the price of American stability, it's worth checking out the *political* economists.

Here's a great place to start: Brown University economist Mark Blyth's interview with The Analysis, available in audio, video, and as a transcript:

https://theanalysis.news/interviews/mark-blyth-the-inflated-fear-of-inflation/

Blyth doesn't dismiss Summers' inflationary fears out of hand, but he does say that Summers is vastly overestimating the likelihood that stimulus spending will trigger inflation - Summers says there's a 1-in-3 chance of inflation, while Blyth says it's more like 1-in-10.

To understand the difference, it's useful to first understand what we mean by inflation: "a general, sustained rise in the level of all prices."

It's not a short-term spike (like we saw with GPUs when everyone upgraded their gaming rigs at the start of the pandemic).

It's also not an asset-bubble. House prices in Toronto are high, but that's not inflation. They're high because "Canada stopped building public housing in the 1980s and turned it into an asset class and let the 10 percent top earners buy it all and swap it with each other."

For inflation to happen in the wake of the stimulus, the spending would have to lead to too much money chasing not enough goods. Blyth gives some pretty good reasons to be skeptical that this will happen.

Start with the wealthy: they don't spend much, relative to their income. Their consumption needs are already met (that's what it means to be rich). You can only own so many Sub-Zero fridges, and even after you fill them with kobe beef and Veuve Cliquot, you're still rich.

What rich people do with extra money is *speculate*. That's why top-level giveaways generate socially useless, destructive asset bubbles. Remember, these aren't inflation, which is good, because everyone agrees that inflation is hard to stop once it gets going.

They're speculative bubbles. We have a much better idea of how to prevent bubbles: transaction taxes, hikes to the capital gains tax, and high marginal tax rates at the top bracket.

Okay, fine, so the rich won't be able to spend us into inflation after a broad stimulus, but what about poor people? Well, the bottom 60% of the US is grossly indebted, suffocating under medical debt, student debt and housing debt. A *lot* of that will disappear.

That will transfer a lot of stimulus money from poor people to rich people (who own the debt), which is why we need high capital gains and top-bracket taxation. But it will also sweep away a vast swathe of the financialized economy.

The point of long-term debt isn't to get paid off - it's to generate ongoing cash-flows that can be securitized and turned into bonds. Securitization converted "advanced" economies into shambling, undead debt-zombies.

https://pluralistic.net/2021/04/02/innovation-unlocks-markets/#digital-arm-breakers

It's securitization that led to the 2008 financial crisis, and it's securitization that sustains Wall Street's speculative acquisition of every single-family dwelling for sale in America as part of a bid to turn every home into an extractive slum.

Blythe explains that if the rich have nothing to buy and the poor use most of their stimulus to get out of debt, it will likely reorient the US economy to useful things: creating jobs to make stuff that people want to buy.

But what about the dollar's status as a global reserve currency? Won't all that stimulus send other countries scurrying around for another form of national savings? Blyth's answer is pretty convincing.

First, because there aren't any great alternatives: the European economy is growing at half the rate of the US. The Chinese economy is booming, but if you buy Chinese assets, there's a good chance you'll never be able to get them out of China.

Gold? Bitcoin? Leave aside the deflationary risk of pegging your currency to an inelastic metal or virtual token, leave aside the environmentally devastating effect of cryptocurrency (cryptos consume enough energy to offset the entire planetary solar capacity!).

Instead, think of the volatility of these assets, with their drunken, wild swings - countries that dump USD due to inflationary fears are hardly likely to switch to a crypto that can lose 20% of its value in a day.

And remember how much of that volatility is driven by out-and-out fraud, with major crypto exchanges and gold schemes imploding without warning, taking hundreds of millions of dollars with them. This is not a stable alternative to the dollar!

Beyond the lack of an alternative, there's another reason to believe that the USD will remain a global reserve, as Blyth elegantly explains.

Think of a Chinese company supplying the US market. Chances are, that's actually US company's subcontractor, getting paid in USD.

These end up swapped with the Chinese central bank for Chinese money, because Chinese companies need to pay salaries, rent, and other expenses in Renminbi, not dollars. The Chinese central bank holds onto the USDs, using them as a national savings, a reserve currency.

If China were to dump all its USD holdings into the world economy, it would tank the US dollar - which is to say, it burn China's own national savings. China's central bank needs to do something with those dollar savings, so they buy 10-year US T-bills.

Same goes for Germany - net exporters depend on a net importer to buy their stuff, and primarily that's the USA. They are stuck in a form of "monetarily assured destruction," and a crisis of confidence is unlikely "because you’ve got nowhere else to take your confidence."

Next, Blyth takes up is the proposed increase in the corporate tax rate, and he says that investors are actually surprisingly okay with this - he reminds us of Buffett's maxim, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."

A hike in the corporate tax rate has the potential to reveal which of the "great" firms "are just really good at tax optimization" rather than efficient production. It'll smash those unproductive firms to pieces that can be bought by good firms for pennies on the dollar.

The final issue that Blyth takes up is an excellent one for this May Day: the relationship of higher wages to inflation. When the US had large, centrally managed industries with large, centralized unions, there was the risk that higher prices would trigger higher wages.

But the US doesn't have a unionized workforce with guaranteed COLA inflationary rises - there's no "wage-price spiral" risk of higher prices leading to higher wages and then higher prices.

The neoclassical theory of wages is based on the "marginal productivity" and "higher than outside option" theories: wage-levels are the product of how much money they stand to make from your work, and how much someone else is willing to pay you to work for them.

But economists like Suresh Naidu describe how high-tech surveillance can disrupt this equilibrium: you can spy on workers instead of paying them more, can impose onerous conditions on them that wring them of everything they can produce.

This kind of bossware was once the exclusive burden of low-waged, precarious workers, but thanks to the shitty technology adoption curve, it is working its way up the privilege gradient to increasingly elite workforce segments.

Digital micromanagement went from the factory floor to remote customer-support reps to office workers who are minutely surveilled by Office 365, all the way up to MDs and other elite professionals:

https://pluralistic.net/2021/02/24/gwb-rumsfeld-monsters/#bossware

This has led to increased profits for firms - firms now take a larger share of their productivity gains, and workers see stagnant or declining wages. That excess profit represents slack in the system.

It means that even if companies' costs go up, they can hold prices steady - all they need to do is reduce their retained profits.

We've had 40 years of price stability at the expense of a living wage for working people.

Higher wages are only inflationary if we assume that the 1% will continue to extract vast sums from their investments and use them to kick off destructive asset bubbles.

Image: badsci https://www.flickr.com/photos/7941730@N06/8625213990/

CC BY-SA: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

#pluralistic

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polaristranslations · 3 years ago

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The Fourth Box

■ ■

There's a psychological phenomenon known as the Capgras delusion.

It's when, one day, a person feels that their family member or friend has been switched out for an impostor—of course, this wasn't Lupin III, so there's no way that person's friend was switched out for someone else, but for whatever reason, they couldn't help but feel that way.

Even though they look the same on the outside, they seem different.

Even though they speak in the same way, they sound different.

Even though it's the same atmosphere, they feel different—that's the Capgras delusion.

If that's the case, then I, this Kurokami Medaka may have always—or perhaps, from the very beginning—felt that way towards my brother, Kurokami Maguro. Is this person really my brother? Is it really true that this person is my brother? That's how I felt.

Although, according to Zenkichi, my brother and I resemble each other.

"If you really hate Maguro-san, Medaka-chan, then I would think that's due to hating others that are similar to you. You probably don't want to recognize it, but personally the differences between you two are paper-thin. There's just barely a difference."

Just barely.

Well, rather than not wanting to recognize this opinion of Zenkichi's, it was more like I didn't recognize it at all, but the words "just barely", and those words only, seemed to be surprisingly fitting towards us siblings.

I didn't know about paper-thin, though.

Perhaps if that paper was twofold.

First off, I felt that my brother's existence was just barely on the edge, and secondly, the relationship between my brother and I was just barely on the edge—well, this was a story about after the collapse of Kumagawa Misogi's Student Council, after everything ended on that summer break, but I left my parents' home.

I left my parents' home, and I became independent.

Without taking a penny of the allowance provided by the Kurokami family, I began living independently—one of the big reasons that I entered Hakoniwa Academy was that, as a special scholarship student, I would be exempt from tuition fees.

What?

What did you say, Torai Kudaki?

You're saying that someone like me would be exempt from tuition fees in most schools?

Haha, it's an honor to be overestimated like that.

But that isn't true at all—because I was a bit of a problem child.

I was a problem child in both elementary school and in middle school—even if you took away the fact that I was a scholarship student, it's hard to believe that there would be any school to take me in but Hakoniwa Academy.

After all, Hakoniwa Academy's Class 13 is that sort of class.

That's what I think, anyway.

Incidentally, my brother had also been in Hakoniwa Academy's Class 13—just from that, you'll be able to find more similarities between my brother and I, but the bizarre aspect of my brother was that he quit that Class 13 partway through.

In other words, he dropped out.

And now, he works as the manager of the old school building.

If you think about it, it's quite the unreasonable life—there's no thought or consistency behind it. And if you add the fact that he worked as the Hakobune Middle School Student Council Executive Committee's secretary in his middle school days, then it really starts making no sense at all.

I don't really have any, you know?

Things that "make no sense at all", that is.

It seemed that they've been playing around again recently, but the intimate combination of Kumagawa Misogi and Kurokami Maguro was, from my point of view, something of a nightmare—no, not just to me, but to anyone who looked, it was something of a nightmare.

It might not click to anyone who only knows the present combination of my thornless brother and Kumagawa who's been mellowed out thanks to Tachiarai-senpai, but the combination of the past was something that was shocking and feared by the entire student body of Hakobune Middle School.

Well, at this point in time, I knew nothing of President Kumagawa or Secretary Maguro—but, well, it seemed quite appropriate to make my brother into the Secretary. As a magician who wields the magic known as analysis, my brother had been appointed with the role of record-keeper—however, I would only learn this after the fact, but this appointment had not actually been made by Kumagawa himself.

Kumagawa himself wasn't the kind of person to put the right person in the right place.

It was something I could tell from him appointing me as Treasurer.

Since, according to Zenkichi, I didn't have the disposition to be Treasurer at all—that's why, when I became the Student Council President at Hakoniwa Academy, I approached Kikaijima Mogana, a professional, for the Treasurer position.

Ah, I know.

Why don't I mention this, while I'm at it?

This isn't about Kikaijima Mogana, but about Akune Kouki—the relationship between Akune Kouki and Kurokami Maguro. The Hakobune Middle School's 66th Generation Student Council Executive Committee's Secretary, Kurokami Maguro, and the Hakoniwa Academy's 98th Generation Student Council Executive Committee's Secretary, Akune Kouki.

In terms of their personalities, it seemed they didn't mesh very well.

To be clear.

I'll get into the specifics later, but in the end, the number of people that my brother could "get along with" in terms of general values was surprisingly limited—even though he has such good manners and is always smiling, I guess everyone still feels something from him.

"That person," Akune Kouki had said.

Oh, this was something he said just the other day.

"Maguro-san doesn't seem to have any conception of good or evil—it might be natural for him as an analyst, but it seems like he only feels what he sees as he sees it. How should I put it? Perhaps I should say, he doesn't associate ideas with other ideas. For example, he may look at the sky and see that it's blue, but he won't think of it as pretty. Something like that. There's no doubt that he's not a bad person, but he's absolutely not a good person either—rather than good or evil, it's like he doesn't know right or wrong. That's the kind of person I think he is—and I imagine he's been like that in the past, as well."

Indeed.

As expected, he has an exceptional way of putting things—though that may be usual for him.

Of course, his way of looking at my brother wasn't exactly the same as mine, and if anything, I had some objections to his words from where I stood, but because he didn't know good or evil—because he had no conception of good or evil—perhaps that was why he was a good match for Kumagawa Misogi, who ruined both the good and the evil at the same time.

Although, that could also apply to Miyakonojou Oudo.

In the end, it seemed my brother could only get along with guys like those.

In other words—for me.

For a person like Kurokami Medaka, it seemed my brother wouldn't be able to get along with her for the rest of their lives.

■ ■

The Student Council office that my brother took me to was empty.

It seemed that the members wouldn't show up here on a regular basis after school—that was yet another difference between here and Hakoniwa Academy's Student Council. At this point, if I were to enumerate all the differences between Hakobune Middle School's Student Council and Hakoniwa Academy's Student Council, there would be no end to it.

It was harder to find the points they had in common.

Even though they both held the name of Student Council, perhaps it was better to think of them as completely different beings—in terms of animals, it would be as if their appearances were similar, but the genus or species was completely different.

There were animals that intentionally camouflaged themselves to look like other animals, though—with that in mind, I could come up with a new theory. The organization with Kumagawa Misogi at its summit was not a Student Council Executive Committee, but an organization that had simply camouflaged itself as such—well, that seemed more like something to come from President Kumagawa, but regardless of what was the truth, it was the same either way.

It was all in the past, anyway.

It wasn't as if anything would change if we tried to figure out the truth—although if there was something that would change, even the tiniest something that would change, I'm still not sure I would spare the effort to do so.

At any rate, there was no one in the Student Council office after school.

I'd been so sure that President Kumagawa would be there, so it felt a bit anticlimactic. I'd come expecting that it would be a conversation between President Kumagawa, my brother, and me—no, rather than anticlimactic, you could say I felt a sense of danger.

Just think about it.

It was just me and my brother in an otherwise empty room, you know?

I definitely felt a sense of danger at something like this—I wasn't the type of person to run from a battle, but a situation like this was something that made me want to run away.

But, I couldn't run away.

And I couldn't let my brother escape, either.

I had to ask.

"Why?"

I said.

Keeping my feelings in check—bracing myself, trying not to be conscious of the fact that the other person was family.

"Why are you doing something like being a member of the Student Council, onii-sama?"

My brother repeated my words in an affected manner.

And he took his seat at a desk to the right, most likely the desk of the Secretary position.

"What a strange thing to ask, Medaka-chan."

"It isn't that strange. As your sister, I'm simply worried about my brother."

This was a big lie.

If anything, what I was worried about was Hakobune Middle School, in which my brother worked as a member of the Student Council. Yes, to be clear, at this point in time, I was more cautious about my own brother than of Kumagawa Misogi, commonly referred to as "the Minus that crawls from chaos".

I was cautious.

And I regarded him as dangerous.

Just between us, I've seen a lot of people up close, produced by my brother's analysis and gone astray—in terms of having caused people to go astray, I couldn't exactly speak ill of others, but in the case of my brother, it was worse because he caused people to go astray intentionally.

How should I put this—you've heard of the story "Yam Gruel", right?

It's a story about feeding as much yam gruel as possible to a person who likes yam gruel—in terms of ideas, what my brother is doing is fundamentally similar. How should I put it? It's like giving humans a disproportionate amount of power—I'm not sure if this is an appropriate comparison, but what do you think would happen if you used a time machine to go back a thousand years ago and gave the people there cell phones?

It's hard to predict what would happen, right?

It would certainly improve their level of civilization, but it's easy to realize that it won't be just good things that happen—there would definitely be things that are lost or broken. Progressing in one bound without following the proper order would surely cause a distortion somewhere.

My brother is a person that does things like that.

He ends up doing things like that.

That must be why he was employed as the supervisor of the Flask Plan—but, because he was nothing but that sort of person, I suppose I could praise my brother a bit for not getting swallowed up by the Flask Plan itself.

However, three years ago.

When I was in middle school, I didn't have the leeway to think those thoughts.

I didn't have a shred of the feelings of wanting to praise my brother—not a sliver. If anything, I held nothing but hostility towards him. Well... I'd like you to think that it was a difficult age for me.

As for the rest.

It would be my unreasonable... My excessive faith in my brother. Although it might sound a bit unnatural to suddenly bring up the word faith at this stage—but my feelings were such that I knew that he would not tremble in the slightest even if I went at him seriously, even if I hit him seriously.

Facing him with all his might.

That was what the sister thought was the correct way to handle her brother—and even now, I still do think that to some extent. Compared to his middle school days, my brother has mellowed out a bit, but some discretion is still necessary in regards to him.

"Worried, huh? Ah, I understand, Medaka-chan. You're always worried about your dearly beloved brother, aren't you?—but that's why what you're asking is so strange. After all, aren't you going to become a member of this very Student Council, too? I've heard from Kumagawa-kun."

"...I wouldn't have agreed to that invitation if I had known in advance that you were a member, onii-sama."

No.

Had I even agreed to his words in the first place?

Even if I had nodded along, had I truly agreed?

To be honest, it felt like it had gradually moved along in that direction until things were suddenly decided... Ultimately, it may seem as if I had decided it by myself, but how was it really?

"Onii-sama, were you also invited by President Kumagawa?"

"Mm, how should I explain it—how far should I explain it?"

"Well, right now, Medaka-chan, there are things that you should know and things that you shouldn't. For the sake of your future."

"Those are words that don't seem very like you—isn't it your principle to draw out 100% of your target's power?"

"I'm saying that there's information that could be bothersome in drawing out 100% of that power. For example, just because a baby has good muscles, you wouldn't start feeding it protein, right?"

"So am I a baby to you, onii-sama?"

"That wasn't what I was trying to say... You shouldn't snap at me like that. Although, if you want, you're free to bite at me for real."

In that way, my brother dodged the question.

This time wasn't particularly special. My conversations with my brother usually went like this—he would treat me like a kid, and he wouldn't respond to me decently.

That sort of behavior.

That brother of mine probably never once thought about how much it hurt me.

"Well, if you don't like that comparison, then I'll take it back. But with that, just know that I don't necessarily think that you joining the Student Council is a good thing, Medaka-chan."

That was what my brother said.

His expression was the usual grin.

Well, even if I said it was the usual, it might not get across to you—but at any rate, he did not sound particularly serious.

"If it's true that you wouldn't have joined the Student Council Executive Committee if you'd known that I was a part of it, then I really should have publicized that information—instead of hiding it."

"So you did hide it. I thought it was weird that I didn't know about something like that."

"Well, Medaka-chan, you don't have much interest in others, so even if I didn't hide it, I figure you wouldn't have known about it anyway."

"I don't have much interest in others? Don't say something so stupid. I was born to be of use to other people, to strangers."

"You're saying something pretty incredible, huh."

Ahaha, laughed my brother.

It was as if my words didn't reach him at all.

I can more or less understand my brother's state of mind as I am now, but at the time, it was nothing but aggravating. Why was it so hard to understand each other despite being siblings? Why were we so incompatible? That was what I thought.

Perhaps that was a part of my idealism.

That siblings should understand each other.

That they should be able to get along.

Because my mind was rooted in such thinking, when it didn't match the world, I felt a sense of discrepancy—I was living by carrying that sort of imaginary stress on my shoulders, so I can understand now why Zenkichi was worried about me.

Thinking about it, I do regret it.

If only I had realized three years ago.

If so, at the very least, I wouldn't have accepted President Kumagawa's invitation to become the Treasurer of Hakobune Middle School's Student Council Executive Committee.

"In that case, I was born to show love towards my little sister."

My brother laughed.

Though rather than laughing, it seemed more like he was ridiculing me.

"Medaka-chan. For you, how much does the world encompass?"

"Huh?"

I was bewildered at the sudden question.

Although, it was rare that I wasn't bewildered when it came to talking with my brother.

"What do you mean by that? The world?"

"Yes, the world. When you hear the phrase 'the world', Medaka-chan, where do you think that is? When you say the phrase 'the world', how many meters is the radius you're referring to?"

"......"

I couldn't figure out the intention behind his question.

It was probably some sort of psychology test, so it was probably something I could answer with whatever came to mind, but I could only assume that such things varied from time to time.

"...I don't really see a meaning to trying to perceive the range of the world, but if I have to answer, wouldn't the world refer to everything in this world? Basically—the greatest range possible. That's what I perceive as the world."

"As I expected. Since you are greedy, after all."

"Greedy?"

Yet another awful word.

Even for a lack of restraint around family members, it was pretty terrible.

"What about me is greedy?"

"Ultimately, the world is limited to the range which you can affect—so when you imagine everything in this world, that's no different from saying that you want to make everything in this world yours."

In my eyes, you're no different from a Great Demon Lord scheming for world domination, said my brother.

A Great Demon Lord, he said.

For lack of a better word, that was awful.

That was what I thought, but I learned afterwards that he was simply likening me to an RPG or some other game. It was an apt metaphor for my brother, whose hobby—or perhaps doctrine—was to raise the level of game characters to level 99, so to speak, but since I didn't have that level of knowledge about games, I didn't realize it.

"If we take it there, then Kumagawa-kun is different. He's the complete opposite of you, Medaka-chan."

"How is it different? The way he thinks, and the way I think?"

My state of mind wasn't exactly calm anymore, but I still wanted to hear my brother's opinion on the matter.

Kumagawa Misogi.

That unidentifiable, quite the unidentifiable boy. How had my brother analyzed him?—that was what I'd come to ask in the first place.

"Medaka-chan. If you're trying to conquer the world."

Without putting on airs, without trying to sound meaningful.

My brother spoke casually.

"Kumagawa-kun—wants to destroy the world."

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bambamramfan · 4 years ago

Photo

Sigh.

This debate is two camps who not only believe but are accurate about what they are saying, talking past each other. Partially due to rather exaggerated language, but both sides are still both right. Sorta.

The question isn’t really “what is a racism” but “what is the best way to end racism?” It’s a strategic question, and people of good faith can differ on strategic question (and in different contexts, either can be right.)

One answer to “how do we end racism?” is “racism is failing to apply the same standards to everyone. By creating institutions that are race neutral, this will allow previously held back people and communities to rise to a place of equality.” These neutral institutions may be weak in some places, and may be rife with cultural assumptions we don’t realize, but over time we can expand their reach and iron out the imperfections. We create an independent locus of power that the dispossessed can use to advance themselves.

And this method has worked many times.

Another answer to “how do we end racism?” is “we get a lot of power (political, cultural, economic) and we forcefully raise the status of minorities.” In their view, a college admissions officer would note on an application that this student is black, and that would be worth more than them proving their value on a math test. In this view, an independent locus of power is an obstacle to the political force that has been gathered. A “pillar” standing in their way, as it were.

And this method has worked many times.

Neither side of the debate is being pig-headed, or wrong, or self-interested. Not only do they truly believe that standardized tests are good/bad, but they have solid analysis to believe that. (They - in this case centrist-liberals vs identity-liberals - are fighting with each other more stridently and personally because they want to fight. But their fundamentals aren’t wrong or perverse. They are “wrong” only when their analysis relies on impugning the motives of the other.)

Okay bam, so which one is right? Are you pro standardized testing or anti?

It’s a contextual, tactical choice, of course. In some contexts, destroying blind/neutral pillars of an existing order is necessary to free the dispossessed groups (money, capital, class, I’m looking at you.) But in other contexts, these blind/neutral pillars are the most reliable way for anyone not in the cultural hegemony to get any semblance of success and dignity, and to prove members of their group shouldn’t be overlooked.

At the moment I suspect that the anti group wildly overestimates their strength to call the shots over America overall, and so bolstering neutral institutions like the SATs helps more than undermining them. But local power is important too, and when anti-racists have sufficient power in local contexts, then of course abolishing the SATs and replacing them with straight up racial or geographic quotas is more likely to bring balanced results. What works in Berkeley won’t work on the national level, ho hum, big surprise.

But we don’t talk tactically, we talk merely in sweeping ideological principles, so the praxis used in Berkeley has to mirror the way we talk about national political aims, and well, everyone ends up looking stupid.

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awed-frog · 4 years ago

Note

You should look at the twin project re: losing weight. If two people who are born genetically identical can be 2 vastly different weights while on the exact same diet and exercise regime surely that tells you something else is going on 🤔

I’m not exactly sure what study you are referring to, and I’m not an expert in this field anyway, but here is what I think.

1) There is no such thing as ‘exact same diet and exercise’. People are notoriously bad at estimating, or even counting, their calories - studies show that people who’re asked to keep a food diary underreport their daily calories by as much as 45% (and overestimate their physical activity by 51%!). Plus, exercise levels are difficult to measure: sure, you may go to a spin class with your friends, but the level of effort (as measured by your heart rate) could be different, and what you do in the other 23 hours of your day counts much, much more. Unless you’re a pro athelete, exercise burns off a negligible part of what you’re eating.

2) As for twins: one study I couldn’t access was from 1986; another one, that considered hundreds of twins (half of which had grown up in different households) is from 1990. That’s more or less prehistory scientifically speaking. Plus, the second one was about children who’d been forcibly removed from their parents and separated from their twin because their families were poor. I hope they accounted for trauma, because that seems horrific.

As for more recent stuff:

3) Quote from one Finnish study from 2012: “Based on interviews of these twins, there is an indication that both the conscious efforts to prevent weight gain in the lean and the more unhealthy lifestyle in the obese co-twins explains the weight disparities, which appeared at 18 years of age, at a time when environmental influences may also start to diverge as the young adults move out of their parental home and establish more individualistic life styles. The twins themselves pointed out environmental factors in young adulthood such as living alone, irregularity of student life, sedentary work, getting a driver's license (at age 18 in Finland), and marital and societal relationships as provocateurs of weight gain as compared with more regular eating and physical activity habits in childhood.”

4) Quote from a Danish study from 2010: “The evidence for genetic influence on anthropometry has previously been established and has been estimated to be 60-70% based on twin studies. These inter-individual differences can, however, not explain the increase in obesity prevalence during the past 70 years. Environmental factors must therefore play an important role in the obesity epidemic.”

5) Furthermore, we do know from twin studies on cancer - a different disease, but a very aggressive one - that the rate of cancer in adopted children si aligned with their adoptive - not their biological - parents’. This is not surprinsing, considering we now know up to 70% of cancers are actually caused by lifestyle and behaviour, not genetics. In the case of cancer, all of us get ‘faulty’ cells all the time, but very often they can be ‘silenced’ by our bodies if we adopt the right reflexes.

(And please note I am NOT victim-blaming here: one big problem in our society is that many people are forced into an unhealthy lifestyle, such as dangerous pesticides or additive in foods, dangerous working conditions, food deserts, limited availability of fresh fruits and veggies, stress and overwork, access to a kitchen, little to no preventative healthcare - the list goes on.)

6) One strong indication that genetics is not that relevant when it comes to obesity are the rates of obesity in Japan (2% to 3%) and among 3rd generation Japanese-Americans (23%). As one recent study puts it, “Research has shown that compared to their native-born cohorts, newly arrived immigrants have better health, but their health declines the longer they remain in the U.S. and become more acculturated [...] The obesity rate seems to increase the longer Asian immigrants remain in the U.S.”

7) Finally, a study from last year shows that the BMI of dogs is correlated to the BMI of their owners: obese people are more likely to have obese dogs, and this is clearly not genetic.

So look - it’s always dangerous to say black and white things when it comes to science, because a) the matters involved are generally beyond complicated and b) we’re finding out new stuff at breakneck speed, but I don’t understand why so many people seem hellbent in complicating this issue. Obesity - as in, too much fat on your body - is always caused by caloric imbalance. In rare cases, people have health problems or take medication which causes them to be constantly hungry and/or store fat badly, and that complicates the issue, but for the vast majority of us, that’s not the case. We simply eat a lot more than we should, and we mostly eat crap. I don’t know how old you are, but I saw the change very clearly. Back when I was a child

nobody snacked (children would get a bread roll, a small chocolate bar, a yogurt or a piece of fruit around 4pm, but adults usually didn’t)

nobody drank soft drinks (my local shop only stored Coke, which we used to beg for but was only allowed in special occasions)

dessert and big meals were also more of a weekend habit

fast food wasn’t a thing (the first kebab place opened in my town when I was 17; the first McDonald’s, when I was 25)

if you forgot your packed lunch your only options were a restaurant, a chocolate bar from a kiosk or a bread roll with ham from the butcher’s

walking and biking places was pretty much the norm for a lot of people, as the bus system was inefficient and families tended to have one car (I have vivid memories of biking home 3 miles at 10pm under the rain after basketball practice, it was hellish but normal)

meals were 90% cooked at home using fresh ingredients (non-food available in the shops was limited to one type of crisps, frozen chips, chicken nuggets and a variety of weird-looking candy)

shopping malls didn’t exist (the first one in my region opened when I was 14), so people spent a lot more time outdoor during the weekend - going to the pool, the beach or the mountains, or playing football, tennis and basketball in the local fields and playgrounds.

Compare this to what’s going on now? You go out, and most people are eating or drinking something - whatever the time of day. Children, in particular, are constant snackers, and they snack on horrific things. Supermarkets are 90% non-food - my local shop has 25 different types of soft drinks, and 2 types of greens. We all work longer hours, with longer commutes, for less money, so there’s less time to cook (and less know-how anyway). Fast food outlets are everywhere and open around the clock (want a kebab with double fries at 9 in the morning or 3 in the afternoon? in the 90s, you would have been fucked - just munch on your brown banana and wait for dinner!). And worst of all, you’re constantly, relentlessly drowning in reminders you should eat more more more, while being surrounded by endless advice on how to drop 20 pounds in 20 days ‘without dieting or exercising!’. It’s a catastrophic social experiment, and the result are obvious - and very profitable.

Because everyone is making money here. The fast food market size was valued at $647.7 billion in 2019 and is estimated to reach $931.7 billion by 2027. The weight loss market is projected to grow from $175.94 billion in 2017 to $245.51 billion by 2022. The profits of drugs to treat diabetes almost tripled in 10 years, going from $27 billion to $78 billion. Investors are rushing towards potential new drugs, snake oil of all kinds and bariatric equipment companies (as one investment website helpfully puts it, “The increasing rate of obesity among children provides significant opportunities for growth of this market.”).

So the bottom line is, sure - some people have always been fatter than others, and that is probably genetics (some of us get hungrier; we react to stress by comfort eating; we like food more). But the reason why obesity rates are skyrocketing has nothing to do with personal preference or genetic inclinations - it is rooted in merciless capitalism and worsening inequalities. We should stop finding excuses or - God forbid - celebrating fatness and demand better policies and better healthcare before it’s too late.

#ask #obesity epidemic #obesity #anti-fa #anti-haes #healthcare #inequality #racism #classism #pet peeve #also weight gain is NOT a moral failure #just in case it needs saying #oh and i forgot to mention eds #but we all know about those anyway :(

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rora-s · 4 years ago

Text

The Derivative Chapter 13: I Know

Chapter 1 <- Chapter 12

“Well I didn’t exactly have a lot of options” I argued, hopping out of the car.

“Maybe not but that sounds like an odd one for a snack” Alan stated getting out and grabbing the grocery bag in the back seat.

“Ugh you sound like my mother” I grumbled as we headed toward the house.

“Greetings friends” we turned at the call to see Larry walking up the drive.

“Oh Larry what brings you here?” Alan greeted.

“Well I was looking for Charles with the intention of spurring him into action on some of the math he promised me” the man explained.

“Hey Larry you haven’t heard anything about my acceptance at CalSci yet have you?” I asked as we headed to the front door.

“I’m afraid not but rest assured me and your uncle are keeping our ears to the metaphorical ground for any word from the admission board” Larry replied.

I let off groan “I hate waiting”

“Don’t worry, I'm sure they’ll accept you. You’re a great student” Alan assured me.

“Well who knows I mean the school does get similar applications from young gifted applicants each year so” the physicist ended his statement with a shrug.

I let out a breath still very anxious about the whole thing “thank you for that Larry” Gramps muttered with an annoyed edge as he opened the front door. “Hey Charlie”

We headed into the house to see Charlie sitting at the table looking over some papers with a woman. “Hey, this is officer Morris of the California Highway patrol” the professor introduced the woman who smiled. Then he gestured to us “this is my father, my niece, and Dr. Fleinhardt”

“Oh, please don’t tell me you got another speeding ticket?” Alan joked.

“Actually your son’s helping me with an accident investigation” Officer Morris explained rising from her seat to shake my grandfather’s hand and then Larry’s, then mine “we’re trying to figure out what caused it.”

“I didn’t know you were consulting for the CHP. Are you?” Alan inquired.

“Don’s case” Charlie clarified.

“Oh so this is why he ditched me here instead of taking me to the movies on his day off like he promised” I spoke with a slight edging looking at the documents laid out on the table.

“Yeah? What sort of accident involved the FBI?” Larry questioned.

“Prison bus crash” Morris informed.

“The one I saw on the news.” Gramps inferred. “The bus with the escaped convicts? Don is working on that, huh?” Alan muttered the last bit as he sat down the grocery bag.

“Yeah. Why?” Charlie questioned most likely sensing the same change in Alan’s demeanor as I had.

“Oh nothing” Alan brushed the matter off as Larry took a seat at the table “it’s just that your brother was working on fugitive recovery once for a while, uh, anyway” he shook his head.

“Appears to be basic Newtonian mechanics” Larry observed “the stuff of first-year engineering students. Now why are these elementary equations so captured your imagination?”

“Well, the confluence of so many unrelated factors coming together at a given point in time” Charlie explained “it’s actually quite a fascinating approach to Bayesian inference as applied to the analysis of time series data.”

“Yeah well as far as I know anytime an accident happens it’s because somebody made a mistake” Alan declared. “Am I right?”

“Actually most car crashes happen because of one overestimating their own ability, to make a turn or get through a light. Willing choices that’s why the common public word accident is a misnomer and reports call them crashes.” I informed absently then paused as all the adults’ eyes shifted to me “I read it once” I shrugged.

“This coming from the girl who doesn’t even have a license” Alan pointed out and I shot him a glare.

“Either way that’s what we’re trying to figure out.” Morris spoke up “whether there was a mistake and what it was”

“The answer’s not that simple” Charlie voiced as Alan pulled out his sandwich and went to open a beer I reached around him to grab my sandwich from the bag. “I mean, coincidences are a mathematical reality. Statistically unlikely events can and often do occur. Just look at the genesis of our planet.”

“Well now, I agree that the factors that brought about life on earth were statistically unlikely” Larry mused “but given the vastness of the cosmos, the limitless possibilities for matter and energy. I’m with Einstein on this. There are no accidents.”

____________

“I can understand the fascination of kinematic equations when working alongside an attractive female police officer” Larry voiced as we watched Charlie set up his little reenactment. “But, all the lawn equipment?”

“What you said about the confluence of the cosmos triggered a thought” Charlie explained “Abby you’re sitting in the road” he muttered shoeing me away so he could set down a skateboard. I scooted over to the side of the path.

“Ah, note to self: Never talk quantum theory again.” Larry voiced.

“The initial velocity of the bus barely exceeds that of the flatbed.” Charlie elaborated “the gap between them closing slowly, approximately two feet per second.” he moved the wheel barrel up.

“And then along comes the skateboard?” Larry questioned.

“That’s right, the pick up truck” Uncle C confirmed “the pick up truck pulls along the right side of the bus” he demonstrated with the skateboard’s movement. “Its velocity is 13 miles per hour greater than that of the bus. Now at this point the gap between the bus and the flatbed truck is at least..” he paused reaching for the paper in the wheelbarrow.

“84 feet” I supplied having seen the paper.

“Okay, that’s ample enough room for the pickup to safely maneuver in front of the bus” Larry declared.

“However” Charlie objected, continuing to manipulate the lawn equipment “the gap suddenly closed. The pickup veers in front of the bus forcing the bus to maneuver and hit the guardrail which causes it to torque and flip onto its side” I tilted my head as Charlie turned the wheelbarrow over.

“How did that gap close so quickly between the bus and the flatbed?” Larry inquired.

“Acceleration or deceleration” I voiced.

“Precisely.” Charlie nodded “two possibilities. One, the bus greatly increased its velocity.”

“No no no” Larry dissuaded that idea “given the mass of the bus, that’s extremely unlikely.”

I craned my neck as I saw Don’s car pulling up to the house. “Or two, the flatbed truck reduced its speed at the critical moment, causing the pickup to veer in front of the bus.”

“That’s it” Larry determined with the snap of his fingers “the flatbed slowed down”

“That’s right,” Charlie agreed.

“And that doesn’t mean anything good” I muttered letting out a breath.

“It would also mean” Larry mused.

“A Markov chain” Charlie finished the thought.

“Exactly” Larry muttered.

“Gentlemen and lady” Don greeted us as he walked up “what’s all this?” he looked over the reenactment.

“Just trying to make sense of something that doesn’t make sense” Charlie explained.

“Thought that’s what you do best,” Don sighed. “What, uh, what’s the problem?”

“Well, apparently, that seed spreader” Larry voiced.

Don gave a confused look and Charlie quickly jumped in “t-the flatbed truck”

“What- what about it?” Don inquired.

“The crash wasn’t an accident” Charlie informed. “Don, it was staged.”

“You’re sure?” Don pressed.

“Mathematically certain” I declared Don shot me a look “it’s lawn equipment and simple math please don’t lecture me on not helping”

Don sighed “fine later” he grumbled then turned to Charlie “think you can work up a model to show at the office?”

“That’s an easy matter of imputing these findings into a computer simulation” Charlie explained.

“Maybe the cute CHP lady officer can help you” I teased my uncle.

“Cute CHP lady officer?” Don questioned turning to his brother who shot me an annoyed look.

“It’s not like that,” Charlie objected.

“Sure Charles, sure” Larry murmured and we all shared a laugh at the mathematician's expense.

________________

3rd POV.

“All these different events and factors from the initial velocity of the bus to its final torque” Charlie explained to Don and Agent Cooper “all of these create what’s called a Markov Chain.”

“What kind of Chain?” Cooper questioned.

“Markov. A sequence of random values where the probabilities at any given time depend on the values at a previous time.” Charlie attempted to elaborate “the controlling factor in a Markov chain is called the transitional probability. Now in this case the bus reaches a certain point in the road just as the truck blocks the lane, just as the pickup cuts off the bus.” the professor gestured to his diagram.

“Which tells you it wasn't an accident?” Don asked with minor confusion.

“Bayesian statistics and the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation tell me that.” Charlie clarified.

“Are you sure you’re his brother?” Billy joked to Don.

“Yeah, you think he’s freaky smart you should meet my kid” Don replied off handedly focusing on Charlie and missing the double take Cooper gave him.

“If the flatbed truck had maintained its initial velocity, well then the pickup should have enough space to roam freely past the bus safely.” Charlie continued “but it didn’t.” he pressed a button going to the next image “the truck slowed down just as the right moment just as the pickup timed its move, forcing the bus to veer violently and overturn.”

“So the pickup driver and the flatbed guy are in on it,” Don deduced.

“Only the gardener’s missing” Cooper muttered.

“Let’s go find that truck driver” Don declared getting up and Billy following after him. “Good job Charlie thanks”

Don and Cooper exited the meeting room and headed through the bullpen. “So uh that comment about you having a kid that serious?” Billy asked as they paused by Don’s desk so he could grab his jacket.

Don let off a breath, his brain somehow just realizing that his former partner would have no way of knowing about Abby appearing in Don’s life a little less than a year ago. “Uh yeah um kind of a long story but uh you remember that girl from college I mentioned Janice Calvin?” Don asked as they headed toward the elevator.

“Yeah the one left you a note and went back home?” Cooper recalled.

“Yeah, well, turns out she was pregnant. And what will be a year ago soon I got this knock on my door from a social worker telling me she died and left a kid behind. And my name’s on the birth certificate” Don explained.

Cooper let off a breath “that’s crazy man.”

“You’re telling me” Don muttered as they entered the elevator and pressed the button for the lobby. “Still it’s been good having her in my life you know? Her name’s Abby and she just tested out of highschool as a sophomore applied to college for next semester”

“Really?” Cooper nodded then a slight smirk came to his features “so out of all these geniuses in your family how the heck did you end up like this?”

“Ah” Don scoffed, giving his friend a shove as the doors opened and they headed out chuckling.

__________

Abby POV.

“Why am I here?” I muttered in annoyance.

“Because I find this interesting,” Alan whispered back.

“That explains why you’re here, not why I am” I grumbled turning the page of my book.

“Well, if you’d quiet down you might just learn something” Alan suggested. I sighed and looked up at Uncle Charlie who was standing in front of a black baord that read “Math for Non-Mathematicians''

“Most people believe that they can trust their instincts” Uncle C explained “however, math suggests that our instincts aren’t always correct” he bent down and picked up a couple big white boards and big red X’s off the ground. “We’re gonna play a little game.” he declared, setting out the white cards on stands “I want you all to pretend that we’re on a game show, and I’m your cheesy game show host. And behind one of these cards is a brand new automobile.” he added a joking deepness to his voice at that last line that elicited some laughs from the audience of the class “and behind the other two are goats. Yeah, goats.” I rolled my eyes and turned back to my story.”I’m going to need a volunteer” I glanced up making sure my uncle wasn’t thinking of choosing me as a couple hands went up “come on, more of you than that. Come on.” he encouraged, receiving a couple laughs in response “Julie” he finally selected. “Why don’t you pick one of these cards? Remembering of course the object is to win the car, not the goat.”

“I’ll take the one in the middle” Julie chose.

“She takes the middle card” Charlie declared, sticking an X to the card. “And what are the chances that that card is the winning card?”

“One in three” Julie answered.

“Three choices, one car. Right?” Charlie clarified “one in three, it’s simple enough, right? Now, here’s where the game’s gonna take a turn. I’m going to reveal to you one of the cards that you did not choose” he reached to the card on the right and flipped it around to reveal a goat “So, we have two cards yet to be revealed. Now, knowing what you know, do you want to switch your choice? Or more importantly for the purposes of this class, does it matter? Will switching your choice improve your chances of winning?”

“Yes switch it” I muttered under my breath going back to my book. Alan gave me a side look.

“Well no. because now, two cards it’s 50/50, right?” Julie replied to the teacher.

“How many people agree with her?” Charlie asked.

“Don’t raise your hand” I mumbled sarcastically, turning the page of my book. Inevitable people did though most of the class in fact Alan looked around surprised.

“That’s what your instinct tells you, but you’d be wrong.” Charlie explained. “Switching your cards at this point actually doubles your chances of winning the car.”

“How?” Julie questioned.

“Well, since we started out with two goats,” Charlie explained “it’s more likely that your first choice was a goat. What are the odds of choosing the goats?”

“Two out of three” Julie answered.

“Right. So it’s more likely that this is a goat, less likely that it’s a car” the professor gestured to the center card “and it’s more likely that this card is a car” he pointed to the card on the left. “See switching your choice gives you a two-out-of-three chance of winning the car, rather than the one-out-of-three chance that we all began with.” he revealed the left card as the car to make his point. “Vroom vroom” he joked making the class chuckle. “You won a car, Julie. Congratulations.'' Then Uncle Charlie paused his eyes drifting to the back of the room before he checked his watch. “I think. Yeah, yeah, we’re out of time.” I looked back to see Don standing in the back of the room with another man who I could assume was another agent. “So uh, go home make some of these for yourselves. Put together some reasonable “n” samples, and uh.. Yeah see what happens. I’ll see you all next week. thanks.”

The students began to disperse and Alan followed my line of sight to Don and the other agent. He got up and I followed him back to the two men. “Hey Dad, what are you two doing here?”

“Oh I like coming whenever Charlie gives one of these math-for-dummies lectures. It’s the only time I actually understand what he’s talking about” Gramps explained “plus this one needed to get out of the house I couldn’t stand anymore anxious pacing about this acceptance letter”

“Hey I wasn’t pacing” I objected adjusting my backpack on my shoulders “much”

“This is Billy Cooper” Don introduced the man next to him. “He’s an agent I work with.”

“Hi” Alan greeted him with a hand shake “we’ve met before, haven’t we?”

“oh, yeah.” Don murmured “I couldn’t remember”

“You worked a case with Don out here once?” Alan guessed.

“Back in the day, yes, sir” Agent Cooper confirmed and glanced between me and my Grandfather.

“Donnie, can I talk to you for a minute?” Alan requested.

“Yeah, sure.” Don agreed and looked to Billy “just give me a second” him and Alan shuffled out of the room.

Agent Cooper turned to me “you must be Abby then” he inquired and I nodded “uh so your uh old man mentioned that you were some kind of genius like your Uncle” he gestured vaguely to where Charlie was packing up his stuff from class.

“Um yeah I have a decent IQ and an Advanced Eidetic Memory” I explained shifting on my feet.

“What’s that mean?” the agent asked.

“I have near perfect visual memory recall especially when I read” I explained gesturing to the book in my hand.

“Cool” Cooper nodded and glanced out the doorway to where Don and Alan were still talking.

“So you work with my dad?” I inquired blinking as the last word came out of my mouth easier than I thought.

“Yup” Cooper smiled “me and Don actually used to be partners back in the day when he worked fugitive recovery. Made a great team”

I smiled slightly “that’s cool”

“Hey agent Cooper” Charlie cut in as he came over to greet the agent.

________ 3rd POV.

Don walked with his father out of the room and into the courtyard outside. “Um- wh-what are you doing? What’s going on?” Alan asked, turning to Don once they were out of earshot.

“What are you talking about?” Don asked, confused.

“Well, I- I haven’t seen you for days. Not since you dropped Abby off.” Alan pointed out.

“I’m working,” Don explained.

“Yeah, I know, Charlie told me.” Alan informed “Are you going back to manhunting now?”

“Oh, I see. Dad, come on” Don sighed in annoyance. “Don’t. This is one case.”

“I seem to recall your saying that about only one case once before,” Alan pointed out, “but, if you remember, they were not good days for you, or for me. I mean, we didn’t hear from you for weeks. We didn’t even know where the hell you were.”

“Dad-” Don tried to interject but failed.

“You do realize that uh, chasing after someone you could be running away from yourself at the same time” Alan stated. “And now you’re a father Donnie, you have a daughter in there that relies on you and you have a responsibility to her. Have you even talked to her the last couple days?”

“Yes dad, of course I have'' Don finally interjected agitated. Then he sighed “contrary to what you might think I don’t plan to abandon her”

Before Alan could respond to that statement or before Don could process the emotions it set forth Charlie was joining them with Abby and Billy right behind him. Don looked at Abby for a moment as Charlie greeted them and asked Alan about his lecture.

Sometimes it was easy for him to forget she was a kid with how her brain worked and how stubbornly independent she could be. However, with her duct taped and sharpied shoes and ratty backpack she wouldn’t let him buy her replacements for, fading freckles and various superhero and tv show related t-shirts. She really was every bit the teenager her age dictated. A teenager who Don knew needed her father.

____________

“Hey” Don called walking up as Coop was loading up his car “So you’re out of here?”

“Heading to Phoenix.” Billy sighed “meth tweaker I been chasing.”

“No chance we could get you to stick around?” Don asked helping him with the bags “maybe put in for a position around here?”

“What, and settle down?” Billy chuckled.

“Hey, it’s not bad Coop, I gotta tell you.” Don advised leaning on the car.

“You don’t miss it?” Cooper inquired.

“No. Not really, no” Don shook his head.

“The rush you get when you’re hauling his ass in,” Coop tempted “your fugitive’s a couple hours ahead of you and you’re closing ground.”

“Alright, maybe a little,” Don conceded. “Hey, but not being in touch with my family, not being able to talk to anybody, I don’t miss that.” he took a deep breath “I don’t know, I think LA’s good for me.”

“Well” Coop sighed closing his trunk “plus you’re a dad now”

Don chuckled “yeah there’s that too”

“Listen that kid’s lucky to have you.” Billy told him “and if she’s anything like her old man she got a good future ahead of her”

“Thanks man” Don sighed as the two shook hands walking back toward the drivers side of the car “keep your head down, huh?”

“I’ll do that,” Billy nodded, getting in his car to leave.

___________

“You do realize watching out the window isn’t going to make him get here any sooner right?” Alan voiced.

Abby sighed and slid down to sit on the couch. “What’s taking so long,” she whined.

“Relax kid,” Don advised, taking a sip of his beer. “He’ll get here soon”

“Easy for you to say” Abby grumbled. Just then the door of the house opened and the trio sitting in the living room turned as Charlie walked in.

Abby bounced to her feet. “Do you have it? Do you have it?” she asked eagerly.

“Hello to you too” Charlie mumbled earning him a glare from his niece. “It’s right here” he held up the letter from the schools admissions office.

Abby took the letter and looked it over like it was some rare artifact. She let off a slow breath. “You want me to open it?” Don asked after a moment.

“No,” Abby objected then took a deep breath and tore the envelope open pulling out the paper inside.

The three men watched as her eyes scanned over it abnormally fast for the average person. Then another second before a large smile spread over her face.

“I got in” she whispered almost inaudibly then began to repeat it louder jumping up and down in joy “I got in! I got in! I got in!” she stopped and whisked over to where Don was sitting “Dad! Dad! Dad! Look! I even got a scholarship!”

“I can see that” Don murmured looking at the paper that was thrust into his hand “nice job kid”

“We knew you could do it,'' Alan encouraged with a smile.

“I’m going to go call Amita and tell her” Abby declared “this is awesome!” with that she ran from the room.

“Donnie, uh,” Alan spoke up after a moment “you are aware she just called you dad right? Without uh any snarky backdrop or anything”

Don smiled lightly eyes still on the acceptance letter “yeah I know”

Chapter 14 ->

#Don Eppes #alan eppes #Charlie Eppes #numb3rs #numb3rs season 1 #amita ramanujan #larry fleinhardt #david sinclair #terry lake #billy cooper #Episode Related #episode per chapter #abby calvin #fanfiction #Also posted on AO3 #also posted on quotev

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thisiskatsblog · 5 years ago

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Lgbt Larries weren’t driven out Kat, they were driven to Harry. It’s still happening. You asked what’s happened to Larries since GBA. We stopped questioning once solo Harry launched and especially when it became clear Louis was paying the price. He still is but Larries don’t care about anything but Larry which means they can’t afford to back RL Louis. Now you’re afraid to look anything in the eye because it’s going to hurt. That’s what’s happened to Larries. It’s hard remembering the glory days.

- How did that video drive any LGBTQ+ Larry to Harry I wonder... ? I mean, I agree they deliberately allowed some “LBGT” mist to hang over Harry but the Larries? No way. All these fucking Xander anons tell a different story. What they did is try to make us believe they broke up and dangle a rainbow carrot - but anyone who didn’t buy the breakup? “Believe the breakup! Harry was with Xander/Camille/is bi”; “do you love LGBTQ+? what are you fucking doing with Louis he doesn’t support LGBTQ+ he’s a homophobe” - yes I have been subject to all of this, but it’s deliberately NOT accepting Larries. Harry is still closeted, allowed to look bi, nonbinary, but not allowed to look gay, or be seen to be with Louis. And I have also gotten loads of of “you should hate Harry for what he’s done to Louis”, “you’re not really supporting Louis if you still love Harry”. Again, saying that you are only really supportive of “RL Louis” as you say, if you don’t buy Larry anymore. People are being divided, Larries are being deligitimized, and driven out. Something with the Larry thing is very threatening to someone. It’s try make them believe they were wrong, if that doesn’t work divide, but in any case do everything you can to conquer. And it didn’t work, because, again, as I see it, Louis’ fandom is full of people who are still convinced that Louis and Harry are together.

- I didn’t ask what happened to Larries since GBA - that’s a projection of your thoughts. I was literally asking “what the fuck happened to us in fall 2014?”. I don’t consider GBA the glory days, I knew it was a plant and it felt like one big mindfuck. Hence the question: “what the fuck was that?”. I am complaining of the mindfucking tactics that were used at that specific time, not of the current state of the fandom - even if I agree that that also leaves things to be desired, and it’s still a mindfuck.

- I have a feeling when you say “we”, you don’t really mean “we” or to include yourself in that... , which is clear as you quickly move to “you” where you start to make accusations.

- It’s clear that there are strong dividing forces at work in the fandom, but honestly, anon, you are making yourself part of them by insisting that it’s black or white, Louis or Harry, and when you believe they are still together it’s really Harry and not really Louis, not RL Louis. Your underlying assumption is that Harry is to blame for all the difficulties Louis is facing, and I simply don’t see why that would be true.

I am very, very strongly convinced they are still together - I simply don’t know when they would have broken up.

I am also very strongly convinced that Louis had made his choices to the best of his knowledge and ability, and I support him in these choices

I am further absolutely adamant that there are plenty of Larries who support Louis from the bottom of their hearts. Who see his challenges, who see what Syco’s hold over 1D has cost him, and who will support him whatever it takes.

They simply don’t blame Harry for any of this.

I am really not too blind to see that Harry is getting more support, that Harry was lined up as the solo star ever since 1D times, that Harry’s rainbowfriendly marketing rode on the coattails of Rainbow Direction, while Louis was actually the first to support that, and got harshly admonished for doing so in the end.

Is that fair? Fuck no.

Is that Harry’s fault? I don’t think so.

The power is, and always was, with the label, and the management. We do not know the limited choices they had. Harry is and never was in a position to “give” Louis a record contract on the exact same terms as his own.

I trust that they negotiated the best deal for both of them that they could. And that this deal is shittier for Louis than it is for Harry probably has to do with a large number of things, including marketability, where record execs clearly believe more in Harry, and also - painful to look in the eye but it needs to be said - past choices. When Louis sings “I’m sorry that I gave into the pressure” I believe he means it - he is seriously not the kind to apologize if it’s not sincere. That said, the pressure is the thing that’s wrong about all this, they shouldn’t have put that pressure on them when they were so young, and I have to say I was very relieved to know he says that too, meaning he knows not to blame himself even if he apologizes - cause none of this is his fault. And so that is what I think Louis’ life and choices are: being given an unfair set of options, with which he is doing the best he can. And, admirably, he is not blaming Harry for being offered better options.

A story from my personal life anon. I am a smart kid, I studied hard, I did everything I needed to, and I wrote a PhD. My brother is also smart, he also studied hard, he did everything he needed to and wrote a PhD. My brother is a professor. And I am a woman, and I am not. Does that make me hate my brother? No. Do I think my brother should not have taken that position? Fuck no. Because at every step of the way, he recognized that he had privilege that I didn’t have. He knows me. He knows my talents. And he could see it wasn’t fair. If I am mentally healthy today, it’s because he always validated and supported me. His support and his belief in me helped me “let go” of my dream to make it in academia. If we had been in the same field or he could have done anything, he would have. But he was not in such a position. All of his PhD students are women, and he fights for them and their options. He does what he can with the privilege he knows he has.

I am not saying Louis needs to let go of his dreams. The opposite. He was given a shot, and he is not throwing it away, and when I see him taking it, it makes me very very happy.

I am saying that, yes, I know from experience, it can be incredibly bitter, and painful to see someone you grew up with, who you consider your equal, who considers you their equal, unfairly being given chances while you are being slandered and nullified. Trust me, my experience was horrendous and the person who barred me from academia comparable to the likes of Simon Cowell. If I had two silver bullets... well I wouldn’t waste them on these two irrelevant nobodies, Trump and Putin (or that Chinese guy) are really the bigger problems here, the two others can both go and die as people no one will remember for anything of consequence.

But back to my point: if you really love that person, it will be a bitter pill to swallow, but you will not hate them for it. If they love you, they will support you, and that in itself will validate you, and you will support them, and you will make them aware, and they will use their position to the best of their ability. I am confident that Harry supports Louis to the best of his ability, and I think that people who see that differently, may, perhaps, be overestimating his power, and/or overestimating their knowledge about what happened behind the scenes.

All of that said, back to the video: I am also confident that Harry wants to support women and his LGBTQ+ fans in particular- what he did with that video yesterday was NOT revolutionary, and was really not using his position to the best of his ability to empower any woman here, wlw or other . Everyone has blind spots, and he hit one there - even if, overall, I am still confident he wants to support women, and his LGBTQ+ fans, and that, therefore, we can expect better of him in the future.

Sometimes things are black & white - but a lot of the time they are grey. You can love two people at the same time, even if they have different and sometimes conflicting interests. Two people who have different and sometimes conflicting interests can still love eachother and work through that and live with that in some way. One person can do things that conflict with other things they do or stand for, and that doesn’t mean they are a bad person. Living with that “greyness”, with that “conflict”, is a great challenge, but it’s a good thing to learn to do, and one of the reasons why I admire Louis so much, is for his ability to be so genuine, to connect with his audience, to come across as very authentic, despite all the conflict that’s been created between who he is and his values, and his public image, and despite the conflict between the adversities in his life, and what his career demands. I hope we can all take that as an example.

#that got very long #but i am very adamant about this #i know #in my bones #they love eachother #and they want us here for them both #I just KNOW that #and i will die on the hill of on the one hand and on the other #and and #yes and #maybe but also #it's not perfect but it's good and i believe it can get better #Anonymous #ask

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