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theinconvenientlifestyle · 3 years ago

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WATCH: The Full INFURIATING Truth About Your Soaring Energy Bill

So, unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past year – or somewhere else off the National Grid – you’ve probably noticed that your Energy Bill has increased to an absolutely insane level recently.

And it’s not just you – it’s everyone across the country – with households now reporting that their energy bills are set to double, and even triple, from last year.

People are already dealing with a huge ‘cost of living crisis’ – with food prices rising dramatically, inflation running rampant, and wages that basically haven’t risen since before the financial crisis – and now, soaring energy bills really are just about the last thing anybody needs.

And yet, whilst other countries around the world responded to rocketing global energy prices proactively – by implementing policies to actually protect their citizens from shouldering the burden of extra costs – the UK government has barely acted, and Brits are understandably getting extremely concerned, whilst the extra costs look set to plunge millions more into poverty, or even worse.

So what’s really going on?

What’s actually causing UK Energy Bills to soar? Why isn’t the government doing more to ensure ordinary people don’t have to foot the bill? And how can we change things to ensure this kind of crisis never happens again?

How much are UK Energy Bills rising?

The Energy Price Cap

When speaking about Energy Bills in the UK, it’s necessary to understand exactly what the Energy Price Cap is.

The Energy Price Cap was introduced in January 2019, with the aim of stopping private Energy Suppliers from making excessive profits by charging customers – mainly those on default tariffs extortionate prices for their energy.

The Cap is set by the Energy Regulator, Ofgem, and it’s updated twice a year – at the start of April and the beginning of October.

Ofgem calculates the Cap based on a range of costs incurred by Energy Suppliers – such as the global wholesale cost of energy, network maintenance costs, and the costs of government energy policies such as green levies and the Warm Home Discount – and the Cap can both increase or decrease depending on the estimated total of these costs.

In addition, Ofgem’s Energy Price Cap also allows private Energy Suppliers to mark up their prices by a certain percentage so that they can turn a profit – a figure which is currently set at 1.9%.

The overall Energy Price Cap figure represents how much an average household, with a typical energy usage, can expect to pay in total for their gas and electricity over the course of a year.

Ofgem also sets three separate Energy Price Caps, which vary slightly based on how much it costs Energy Suppliers to process different forms of payment method.

But, for the sake of convenience, as the Monthly Direct Debit Energy Price Cap is by far the most commonly used, we will focus on that one for this video.

As of April 2021, the Energy Price Cap was £1,138 – meaning that a typical UK household could expect to pay this amount for an annual dual fuel bill.

However, six months later, in response to rising global wholesale gas prices, Ofgem announced that they would be raising the Energy Price Cap by another £139, a 9% increase to £1,277.

And in April this year, they raised it again! But this time, by much more – almost £700, a 54% increase on October 2021, from £1,277 to a whopping £1,971.

This represents a total annual rise of £833 for a typical household – an increase of 73% compared to just a year ago.

Evolve Research

Given the fact that these price rises have only just come in, it’s currently impossible to calculate just how badly they’re going to affect ordinary people in practice.

However, in making this video, we asked our followers for examples of how much their own energy bills are about to increase, based on the official estimates provided to them by their Energy Suppliers.

We received a big response, and the general consensus was a near 100% rise on bills compared to 2021 – with price increases appearing to vary very little across different suppliers.

One E.ON customer, Steven, reported that his bill was going to virtually triple – going from £136 a month to £362 after April.

Whilst Maggie, a Utility Warehouse customer, reported a rise in her electricity bill of 99% – from £51 a month to £101.41.

And one Octopus Energy Customer, Laura – who lives in a 3-bed ground floor flat – has just received an estimate essentially doubling her total annual energy bill to around £5,800.

And these responses were typical amongst the numerous replies that we received – meaning that, in the coming months, the vast majority of Brits are almost certainly going to be receiving some truly eye-watering energy bills.

But it’s not just domestic households being affected either.

We received another response, from Ben, who helps run a village pub, reporting that their business Energy Supplier had quoted them a staggering 750% increase for their annual electricity bill – from £4,700 to nearly £34,000.

After shopping around, Ben told us that the best deal they could possibly find was a fixed tariff deal with Scottish Power, for £13,500 a year – a figure which still represents a rise of 175% from last year.

And, if you thought things were bad enough already, these rises could just be the tip of the iceberg – with experts predicting that things could get even worse, and that the Energy Price Cap could even top a staggering £3,200 next October.

Why are UK Energy Bills rising so much?

There are a large number of factors causing UK Energy Bills to rise.

However, there are two main ones:

Global wholesale gas prices have soared more than 400% since the start of 2021

The UK is one of the most gas-dependent countries in Europe

Why are global wholesale gas prices soaring?

During the height of the pandemic, strict lockdown measures saw global demand for energy slow to an unprecedentedly low level.

And, as global storage facilities started to fill to the brim, extraction and production across the globe was reduced dramatically.

However, as restrictions began to be eased in 2021, economies around the world bounced back far quicker than expected, and renewed gas production didn ’t keep up with the pace – leading to huge demand and low supply.

This dire situation was then compounded by a number of other factors:

A bitter winter in the northern hemisphere, which increased demand for gas heating

A hot summer in Asia, which increased energy demand for air-conditioning

A relatively windless summer in Europe, which depleted levels of stored wind energy

A drought in Brazil, which depleted levels of stored hydroelectric energy

And now, just to make the situation even worse, Russia – the world’s largest exporter of natural gas �� are acting like utter bellends in Ukraine, leading to yet more frenzy in the gas market.

Why is the UK so reliant on natural gas for domestic energy?

Despite decades of calls to phase out fossil fuels in favour of renewables, the UK is still one of the most gas-reliant countries in Europe – with 85% of UK homes still heated by gas central heating, and around 40% of all UK electricity still produced by burning it.

In comparison:

Around 2% of Sweden’s energy is produced from gas

Around 15% of France’s energy is produced from gas

Around 22% of Germany’s energy is produced from gas

And, for the European Union as a whole, gas accounts for just 22% of overall energy production

Whilst over the last few decades the UK has almost entirely phased out its use of coal power plants, it has also failed to make up the shortfall with either renewable capacity or any other source – and gas still leads wind as the UK’s number one source of overall energy production.

In addition, over the same period, the UK also hugely scaled back its own domestic gas production – leading to the UK becoming a huge net importer of natural gas, with almost half of it now being bought from abroad, mainly from Norway, but also around 4% from Russia.

What other factors are causing UK Energy Bills to rise?

Standing Charges

In addition to the hike in the Energy Price Cap, Ofgem has also published updated figures for average Standing Charges.

Standing Charges are controversial because they are a daily fee that Energy Suppliers are allowed to add on to a customer’s bill regardless of how much energy they actually use.

Standing Charges are essentially a fee for being connected to the energy grid – and they ensure that, even if a household does not use any energy at all, they still pay for costs associated with maintenance of the energy network, such as pipes and wires, that it’s connected to.

However, due to the way our privatised Energy System works, Standing Charges also go towards covering the costs of private Energy Suppliers who go bankrupt – costs such as paying off their outstanding debts, and moving their former customers to a different supplier.

Whilst the Energy Price Cap does take into account rising Standing Charges, a total of 31 energy suppliers have gone bust since the beginning of 2021, displacing more than 4.5 million customers and significantly adding to the overall cost of the increasing Energy Price Cap.

And, as a result, the average Standing Charge for Electricity has risen massively, almost doubling from around 25p per day before April, to more than 45p a day now.

What is the UK government doing to help people afford soaring Energy Bills?

The UK government has been widely criticised for its slow response to the Energy Bills crisis – and the policies it has announced to try and address the situation have been broadly slammed as ‘sticking plasters’, which do nothing to address the underlying causes, and which still leave ordinary people – and the most vulnerable – severely out of pocket.

Council Tax Rebate

In February, the government announced that all English households in Council tax bands A-D would receive a £150 rebate in order to help with soaring Energy Bills.

Energy Bill Discount

At the same time, the government also announced that all domestic energy customers in Great Britain would automatically receive a £200 discount on their Energy Bills in the autumn.

However, this discount has been widely criticised because households will have to repay it, and nobody can opt out – with an extra £40 being added to everybody’s Energy Bills over the next five years in order to pay Energy Suppliers back.

Warm Home Discount

In addition, the government has also announced an extension to the Warm Home Discount, which will rise from £140 to £150 in October. The government also claims that eligibility for the scheme will be extended to around 780,000 extra households, although it is currently unclear which households these will be.

Currently around two million households are eligible for the Warm Home Discount – with those on Pension Credit receiving it automatically. Other ‘low income households’ who receive certain benefits could also qualify, but need to apply to their Energy Suppliers in order to receive it.

However, only Energy Suppliers with more than 150,000 customers are currently mandated to take part in the scheme – meaning that many eligible households who buy their energy from smaller suppliers will miss out.

In addition, the government is reportedly set to remove eligibility to the Warm Home Discount to around 200,000 sick and disabled people – those in receipt of Disability Living Allowance (DLA), Personal Independence Payments (PIP) or Attendance Allowance (AA).

Moreover, the costs that Energy Suppliers incur for providing the Warm Home Discount to eligible customers is actually taken into account by the nationwide Energy Price Cap – meaning that those in receipt of the discount are actually still paying for a percentage of the scheme in higher bills.

How will the government’s policies help ordinary people in practice?

Energy Bills are set to rise by £833 a year on average, and even if you are eligible for all three schemes, it will only cut around £500 off your bill in the short term, and just £300 in the longer term – leaving even the most vulnerable people down by around £530 in the long term.

However, the majority of Brits will only be eligible to two of the schemes – the £150 Council Tax Rebate and the repayable £200 Energy Bill discount – leaving the average household out of pocket by almost £700 a year in the long term compared to 2021.

What are the opposition proposing?

The Labour Party have urged the government to go further, by scrapping the 5% VAT on Energy Bills, implementing a one-off windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas companies, and expanding the Warm Home Discount even further.

However, in January, Conservative MPs voted down a Labour motion to scrap VAT on Energy Bills – this despite the fact that Boris Johnson himself endorsed scrapping VAT on energy bills during the 2016 Brexit campaign.

And, more recently, the Prime Minister rejected the idea of a windfall tax, claiming that, if one were implemented, fossil fuel firms would simply “put their prices up yet higher”, causing even higher energy bills for customers.

Labour claim that all three of their measures would cut around £200 off a typical household energy bill in a year.

Yet, even if Labour’s ideas were to be implemented and combined with the government’s policies, the average UK household would still find themselves around £500 a year down in the longer term.

What are other countries doing to help people with soaring energy bills?

Due to the fact that the energy price crisis has largely been caused by a global price spike, countries around the world are also being affected in much the same way as the UK.

However, many nations have introduced policies that go far further than those introduced by the UK government – policies which genuinely protect ordinary people from bearing the brunt of a crisis we did not create and can ill afford right now.

France

In France, for example, President Macron recently announced that electricity price rises were to be capped at just 4%, and that gas price rises would be limited to 12.6%.

In addition, the French government are also giving a €100 rebate to all citizens earning less than €2000 a month in order to help with the increase.

Had Macron’s government not intervened, the people of France would now be facing increased energy bills of around 45%.

When compared to the UK – where the Energy Price Cap has just been raised by 54% – ordinary people in France have clearly been handed a far better deal.

France’s energy sector is largely state-run, with the government holding an 86% stake in the country’s largest energy firm, EDF, which runs 56 nuclear power plants across the country and generates more than 70% of the entire country’s electricity.

Owing to their largely democratically-controlled energy sector, the French government is also able to freely intervene to ensure that energy bills stay low for ordinary people – and it means that any profit generated by EDF is invested back into improving the system, not simply pocketed by private shareholders.

This point was perfectly summed up by Labour MP Grahame Morris at Prime Minister’s Question earlier in March – whose question left Boris Johnson floundering, with the PM basically conceding that the British public were getting such a raw deal precisely because our energy sector is privatised:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX1Fu8GFxOs

Research has found that the French already enjoyed some of the cheapest energy bills in Europe – whilst Brits continue to suffer some of the most expensive, with the UK ranked fourth behind only Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands.

Other European Countries

Elsewhere in Europe, the government of Spain promised citizens that electcitiy bills would not rise beyond 2018 levels – with Pedro Sanchez’s left-wing coalition introducing several measures including:

Capping gas prices at 4.4% instead of an estimated 28%

Cutting VAT on energy from 5.1% to 0.5%

A €2.6 billion windfall tax on the excess profits of Energy Firms

Whilst Norway’s government has promised to cover the costs of 80% of every citizens’ energy bill above pre-crisis levels – a scheme which will run until at least March 2023 and which effectively caps extra costs at 20%.

Why isn’t the UK government doing more to help ordinary people?

Britain is already in the grip of an unprecedented cost of living crisis, and the latest statistics show that more than 3 million UK households – over 13% of the entire population – are already in fuel poverty.

Yet, despite this, the UK government’s response to the global energy price hike has been to ignore successful policies implemented by the likes of France, and simply do the bare minimum – inaction which will leave numerous already financially-strained Brits hundreds of pounds out of pocket, and undoubtedly result in many more being pushed over the edge.

So what on earth are Boris Johnson and his government playing at?

Political Ideology

Firstly, in order to understand why certain politicians make the decisions they do, it’s essential to understand the history of the party they represent and the ideology that underpins it.

The Conservative and Unionist Party, to give them their full name, was founded in 1834 as a successor to the Tory Party, during a time in which ordinary people were literally fighting, and winning, to get the vote.

Before this time, only the very rich were allowed a say in who ran the country, and the two main political parties – the Tory Party and the Whigs – only needed to represent the interests of this wealthy elite in order to win votes.

Historically, the Whigs represented the interests of aristocratic families, whilst the Tories represented the interests of the Capitalist class, such as factory owners and landlords.

However, during the early 1800s, ordinary Brits began rising up – they had had enough of the rich literally lording it over them, and fought to force change.

Starting with the Great Reform Act of 1832, Parliament gradually began to allow more and more ordinary people the vote – culminating in the 1928 Representation of the People (Equal Franchise) Act which finally extended the vote to women.

As the franchise slowly began to widen, both the Tory Party and the Whigs were simultaneously forced to expand and popularise their policies in order to appeal to the interests of these newly enfranchised voters – with the Tories rebranding as the Conservative Party, and the Whigs morphing into the Liberal Party, and later the Liberal Democrats.

However, in 1900, after the franchise had been extended to all men, a newcomer party emerged – a party formed out of the growing Trade Union movement in order to represent the interests of ordinary working people: the Labour Party.

From the 1920s until the modern day, Labour and the Conservatives have essentially become the two “main” parties in the UK – with Labour historically representing the interests of the working class and the lower middle class, and the Conservatives representing the interests of the upper middle-class upwards.

This upper-class focus can almost always be used to explain the policies of the Conservative Party – and Boris Johnson’s choice to largely ignore the least well off who will be hit hardest by the energy price spike, whilst simultaneously protecting the interests of wealthy Energy Company shareholders who will make profit from it, is no different.

Priorities

In addition to ideology, politics is also about priorities – and, as you may have come to realise over the last few months, Boris Johnson’s number one priority is, and always has been, himself and his own self-preservation.

Over recent months, Boris Johnson has unquestionably enraged, infuriated and exasperated just about every section of the British public.

From his government’s handling of the pandemic, to widespread corruption and cronyism, to his innumerable lies over Party Gate, Johnson’s poll ratings were plummeting so disastrously that he was seemingly on the verge of being ousted by his own backbenchers.

Yet, with Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine now dominating the headlines, the British public are seemingly starting to forget all about Johnson’s incalculable cock ups, and his poll ratings are slowly creeping back up.

However, whilst Johnson is fully aware that public opinion could easily swing against him again very quickly, he has clearly calculated that his government’s lacklustre response to the Energy Bills crisis will suffice enough of the public to see him through, and that any potential backlash would be nothing in comparison to what has gone before it.

If the Energy Bills crisis had the potential to cause anywhere near the kind of political damage to him that Party Gate did, Boris Johnson would unquestionably be prioritising a far better response.

As it is, at this current moment, Johnson feels he’s got enough political capital to prioritise ideology over popularity. However, when people start feeling the pinch, things could easily change, and Johnson could well be forced to take more action.

What should the government do to change the energy system and protect UK households from another Energy Price Crisis?

As explained previously, the main factor driving the Energy Price Crisis is rocketing global gas prices.

However, whilst the UK can’t solve this global crisis on its own, there are loads of things the government could be doing to change our energy sector in order to protect ordinary people from being affected by such price spikes.

Divest away from gas towards renewables

The first and most obvious way to ensure we protect ourselves from global gas price spikes is to simply stop being so reliant on gas.

As explained earlier, the UK is currently one of the most gas-reliant countries in the world – and this means that Brits will see much larger price rises than other comparable countries.

Electricity bills in countries such as Iceland, whose grid is powered almost entirely by renewable energy, have been almost entirely unaffected by soaring global gas prices – and citizens in Iceland continue to enjoy some of the lowest electricity prices in the world.

Not only are renewables far better for the planet, energy from both solar and onshore wind now costs less to produce than energy from any fossil fuel source.

Yet, whilst the UK has increased the percentage of energy it produces from renewable sources to around 40% – up from around 10% a decade ago – the government could easily go far further in speeding up the transition.

In addition, the government could also increase investment in new renewable energy storage technologies – to ensure that when the wind stops blowing or the sun stops shining, we don’t have to fall back on dirty sources such as gas to cover the shortfall.

And, in terms of reducing reliance on gas for domestic central heating, the government could do much more, including:

Speeding up the phasing out of gas boilers

Directly funding carbon neutral gas boiler replacements such as heat pumps

The UK also has some of the oldest housing stock in Europe, with some of the lowest energy efficiency. To solve this, the government could prioritise measures – especially for those on low incomes and in social housing – to fund retrofitting and the installation of insulation and/or double glazing.

And, as for new build housing, the government could easily legislate to ensure all new homes are carbon neutral.

Run energy in the interests of people, not profit

And then there’s the huge problem of who controls our energy sector.

Energy is an essential utility, and we all need it to live. Yet, since the 1990s, the UK government has allowed our energy sector to be run by private companies purely to make profits for their shareholders – rather than in the interests of British people.

As a result, our entire energy network – from the power stations which generate it, to the distribution networks that transport it, to the energy suppliers who sell it – are now all owned and operated by a huge range of private companies, investors, private equity firms, wealthy individuals, and even foreign governments.

Analysis has found that UK energy bills are now around 10-20% more expensive because of privatisation, whilst electricity bills have increased in real terms by around 67% alone since the turn of the century.

Moreover, research analysing the last 30 years also shows that energy bills in countries whose systems are publicly run are typically around 20-30% lower than bills in privately run systems.

Around 60% of Brits think energy should be in public hands, with just 13% of people opposed – and, when you really dig into the details, it’s extremely easy to see why.

Under the UK’s privatised energy system, when profits are plentiful, private Energy Suppliers gladly lap them up. Yet, when times get hard, the government routinely hands these firms public money until they start raking in profit from our bills again.

In addition, a large proportion of the UK’s energy system actually is run by a government – but not our own!

EDF, a state-run French firm, owns and operates all eight of the UK’s operational nuclear power stations, as well as 37 UK onshore wind farms. These activities regularly net the firm 100s of millions of pounds – money that is generated from us through our ever-increasing energy bills, and which ultimately only benefits French taxpayers.

Whilst National Grid PLC, the private firm who own and maintain the national energy transmission infrastructure in England and Wales, as well as the national gas transmission network across Great Britain, are also making huge profits – paying out £1.4 billion in dividends to shareholders just last year.

Whilst research has found that the UK’s regional electricity distribution networks – private firms that own and operate the infrastructure which transmit energy from the national grid into our households – are making the biggest profit margins of any sector in the entire country, paying out a total of £6 billion in dividends to shareholders over the last 5 years.

https://twitter.com/Cmmonwealth/status/1503355217785638914?s=20&t=hLfniuF-HtE6LuoMEyO6hQ

If our energy system was brought back into public hands, these huge sums of money could either be taken off our our bills to begin with, or invested back into the system to make our bills even cheaper in the long run – not simply pocketed by wealthy shareholders.

In addition, a democratically-run energy sector would also allow the UK government to directly intervene in order to ensure energy bills stayed low in the event of any future energy crisis – much like the French government, who control the state-run energy firm EDF, have just done for their citizens.

Implement a permanent Windfall Tax on UK Oil & Gas companies

Despite widespread calls to transition to renewables, the UK government still allows oil and gas companies to extract fossil fuels from within UK territory, and on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), mainly the North Sea, where it holds mineral rights.

Since 2010, two of the biggest oil and gas companies have handed out a staggering £147 billion to private shareholders from profits made extracting UK oil and gas – and this year BP and Shell are on course to make a truly staggering combined profit of around £40 billion in 2022, largely off the back of soaring global energy prices.

And all the while, over the past five years, nineteen North Sea Oil companies, including BP and Shell, have actually been net recipients of public money – meaning that the UK government has handed them more public money, mainly in the form of tax breaks, rebates and subsidies, than they have actually paid back into the public purse in taxes! Seriously!

To see just how much UK taxpayers are being screwed over, all you have to do is look at the example set by Norway.

For every barrel of oil that the likes of BP and Shell extract on UK territory, the government collects just $1.72 in tax from them. Whilst in Norway – who have implemented a special 78% rate of tax on the profits of oil and gas companies, and whose oil and gas industry is largely state-controlled – this figure is more than twelve times higher, at $21.35.

As a result of this oil tax, since 1990, Norway has amassed the largest sovereign wealth fund in the entire world, worth an astonishing £1 trillion – or around $250,000 for every citizen – money which is invested and used for projects that benefit the Norwegian people.

Both the UK and Norway began extracting North Sea oil at around the same time in the late 1960s. And since then, both countries have produced similar amounts – meaning that, had the UK government actually taxed oil and gas companies properly, we could also be sitting on a trillion pound wealth fund by now as well.

But that clearly would’ve been too sensible for our governments now wouldn’t it.

#ukpol #UK politics #Boris Johnson #conservative party #long post #very long

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phroyd · 6 years ago

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This asshole is bailing out the very voters who were screwed by his great Deal-Making Skills, with China. He’s literally buying their votes for election 2020! They should have to suffer the fall-out of his incompetence! - Phroyd

WASHINGTON — President Trump on Thursday unveiled a $16 billion bailout for farmers hurt by his trade war with Beijing, signaling a protracted fight ahead that is already prompting some American companies to shift business away from China.

Mr. Trump, flanked by farmers and ranchers in cowboy hats during remarks at the White House, said China had “taken advantage” of the United States for far too long and vowed to protect an industry that has been “used as a vehicle” by Beijing to hurt America’s economy.

“Farmers have been attacked by China,” Mr. Trump said, adding that if the United States is in a trade war, “we’re winning it big.”

Global markets tumbled on Thursday as investors began coming to terms with the idea that Mr. Trump’s trade war is here to stay.

Benchmark indexes in China, Germany and France all dropped, with the S&P 500 falling 1.2 percent. American crude oil prices were down more than 5 percent, amid growing concern that the trade war would start to drag on global economic demand. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.29 percent at 3 p.m., according to Bloomberg data. That was its lowest closing level this year and a sign that investors were expecting lower levels of growth and inflation.

Hopes for a quick resolution to the China trade fight have faded, with both countries hardening their positions after a trade deal collapsed this month. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesdaythat no additional meetings with Beijing were scheduled and that he was encouraging American firms to reorient their supply chains and source their products elsewhere.

Progress toward a trade agreement between the United States and China collapsed after American negotiators accused Beijing of reneging on terms it had previously committed to. Significant differences remain over how tariffs should be rolled back between the countries, and whether the negotiated provisions must be enshrined in Chinese law.

While both sides initially suggested they would continue talking, Beijing has also begun bracing for a long trade fight. In a defiant statement this week, China’s president, Xi Jinping, called for the Chinese people to begin a modern “long march,” invoking a time of hardship from the country’s history, which many China watchers viewed as a hardening of Beijing’s trade stance.

“I am growing more and more skeptical that there is a place where the two sides can come to a deal,” said Edward Alden, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “If I look at the positions the two sides have taken at the moment, I do not see a path to a deal.”

Mr. Trump on Thursday once again suggested that he was happy to keep his trade fight going indefinitely.

“I remain hopeful that at some point we’ll get together with China,” he said. “If it happens, great. If it doesn’t happen, that’s fine. That’s absolutely fine.”

More companies have been pulling back from doing business with Chinese firms, especially multinationals that provided services to Huawei, the telecommunications equipment giant. The Trump administration announced last week that it would blacklist Huawei over national security concerns, prompting Google and mobile carriersto say they would no longer do business with it. The benchmark index of American semiconductor stocks fell 1.7 percent, as investors continued to grapple with the administration’s efforts to restrict sales to Huawei.

On Thursday, the president called Huawei “very dangerous” but said it was “possible” that an arrangement involving the company could be included in a China trade deal.

“If we made a deal, I can imagine Huawei being included in some form or some part of a trade deal,” he said.

More restrictions on dealing with Chinese tech companies could come soon. The New York Times reported on Tuesday that the Trump administration was considering another ban on American companies supplying components to Hikvision, a Chinese surveillance camera maker that has been criticized for playing a role in the Chinese government’s monitoring and repression of Uighurs, a mostly Muslim ethnic minority.

The crackdown on Chinese technology, coupled with Mr. Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods and begin the process to tax another $300 billion, has exacerbated tensions with Beijing. The Chinese government has accused the United States of bullying China and vowed to further retaliate on American products, particularly agricultural goods.

A spotlight on the people reshaping our politics. A conversation with voters across the country. And a guiding hand through the endless news cycle, telling you what you really need to know.

In a note on Wednesday, analysts from Nomura Global Markets Research said their baseline scenario was that Mr. Trump would put a 25 percent tariff on all Chinese exports to the United States by the end of 2019, most likely after he is scheduled to meet with Mr. Xi at the Group of 20 summit meeting in late June.

Mr. Trump has been fighting several trade wars at once, wielding tariffs against metals from Europe, Japan, Canada and Mexico as well as goods from China. In response, trading partners have hit back at American farmers, imposing punishing tariffs on items such as peanut butter, soybeans and orange juice.

Over the last week, the Trump administration has moved to resolve or delay trade conflicts on other fronts, to better focus its efforts on Beijing. While Mr. Trump has insisted any pain will be short-lived and worth the price, administration officials have grown concerned that the president could lose the support of farmers, an important political constituency, ahead of the 2020 election.

China’s tariffs against products like soybeans and beef and a recent move to cancel a major pork order have hit swing states, including Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin, especially hard.

“Farmers are becoming increasingly anxious over their future financial performance,” said James Mintert, the director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture and the principal investigator in a survey of 400 American farmers.

The survey — by Purdue University and the CME Group, a global markets company — showed that sentiment plunged in April, stemming from concerns about worsening tensions with China. Only 28 percent of farmers surveyed said they believed a soybean dispute with China would be resolved by July 1, down from 45 percent in March, while 74 percent said that now was a “bad time” to make big farm investments.

Those worries helped spur Mr. Trump last week to suddenly drop steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which agreed in turn to withdraw stiff levies on American farm goods.

On Thursday, the Agriculture Department said it would provide up to $16 billion in aid to farmers hurt by trade retaliation. The amount “is in line with the estimated impacts of unjustified retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods and other trade disruptions,” the department said in a statement. The financial support came after the administration handed out $12 billion in emergency relief for farmers last year.

The new program will make $14.5 billion in direct payments to producers, channeled through the Commodity Credit Corporation, a program that helps shore up American farmers by buying their crops. The payments will be made to agricultural producers for a wide range of products, from soybeans and cotton to chickpeas and cherries, in up to three tranches, beginning in late July or early August.

The government will also put in place a $1.4 billion program to purchase surplus commodities affected by the trade war and distribute them to food banks, schools and other programs for the poor, as well as put another $100 million toward developing new export markets for American farmers.

In his remarks on Thursday, the president said that China would foot the bill for the program by paying hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs to the United States government. Economists have disputed that, saying the administration has no way to determine who ultimately pays the cost of the tariffs — Chinese businesses, American businesses or American consumers — but that the cost is falling heavily on those in the United States.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Thursday that Mr. Trump’s tariffs will cost the average American household $831 annually.

Despite the economic pain from his trade war, many farmers continue to support Mr. Trump. But some are not happy about the financial bailout, saying they would prefer freer markets rather than subsidies and tariffs.

“It’s still just a Band-Aid,” said Bret Davis, a fourth-generation soybean farmer in Delaware, Ohio. He said he had received roughly $150,000 of bailout money last year, but estimated that his losses due to the trade war were almost $250,000.

The trade clash has pushed China, which formerly bought about one-third of American soybeans, to purchase from other markets instead and caused soybean prices in the United States to slump. At the current market price, Mr. Davis said, “I cannot produce a bean and make a dime on it.”

“I would lose money on every acre I plant,” he added.

Brody Stapel, the president of the Edge Dairy Farmer Cooperative in Green Bay, Wis., said on Thursday that farmers appreciated the financial assistance, but recognized that it would provide only partial and short-term relief. “We much prefer trade over aid,” he said.

Republican lawmakers were more supportive. Senator Kevin Cramer, Republican of North Dakota, said he was taken completely by surprise when Mr. Trump signaled this month that he would allocate the new farm money — and was optimistic the president would steer more money to farmers if enough Republicans called him directly to make the request.

“It’s a good start,” Mr. Cramer said on Thursday. “If we need more later, we will go through the fight again. We got $16 billion, but maybe we’ll need $20 billion.”

Phroyd

#agriculture and farming #china #bailout

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nigeiadigitalmarketingcompany · 5 years ago

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2:00PM Water Cooler 7/26/2019

Digital Elixir 2:00PM Water Cooler 7/26/2019

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Patient readers, I had a household event and got a late start. I’ll return with more shortly. –lambert

Trade

“Trump Says Apple Won’t Get China Tariff Relief” [Industry Week]. “The president tweeted on Friday, ‘Apple will not be given Tariff wavers, or relief, for Mac Pro parts that are made in China. Make them in the USA, no Tariffs!’” • If we can, without an industrial policy of any kind….

Politics

“But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“They had one weapon left and both knew it: treachery.” –Frank Herbert, Dune

“2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination” [RealClearPolitics] (average of five polls). As of July 24: Biden flat at 28.6% (28.6), Sanders up at 15.0% (14.8%), Warren up at 15.0% (14.6%), Buttigieg up at 4.8% (5.0%), Harris down 12.2% (12.6%), others Brownian motion.

* * *

Puerto Rico

Against stupidity the Gods themselves contend in vain:

Hi David, I worked in Florida for @BarackObama in 2012. Respectfully, as Obama’s campaign architect, there’s a bit more listening in order. One of many frustrations that drive Puerto Ricans to the streets is the Austerity Board that Obama signed into law and imposed on PR. https://t.co/4DaFAHzqpJ

— Ricardo A. Ramírez (@RicardoEnDC) July 25, 2019

I guess Plouffe was too busy cashing in at Uber to keep up.

2019

“Pelosi downplays differences with Ocasio-Cortez after talk” [Associated Press]. “‘In our caucus we have our differences. Respect that instead of making a big issue of it,’ Pelosi told reporters, displaying a little exasperation with the media’s fixation with their relationship. ‘We just had a meeting to clear the air.’ Corbin Trent, a spokesman for Ocasio-Cortez, said, “It was a very positive and productive meeting about progressive priorities.’” • Like, ya know, the “Green Dream or whatever.”

Realignment and Legitimacy

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (@CISAgov) is a thing. Thread:

.@CISAKrebs, speaking at #ICCS2019, says the Obama administration was "caught a little flat-footed" on election interference in 2016.

“We’re not going to be caught flat-footed again. We’re ready for what they’re going to bring at us.”

— Eric Geller (@ericgeller) July 25, 2019

Again, there’s only one litmus test for balloting: Hand-marked paper ballots, hand-counted in public. Anybody who tries to sell you a digital intermediary is selling fraud.

“Structure, Subjecthood, & Socialist Workers: A Response to the Bread & Roses Labor Resolution” [The Organizer]. • Can’t take a position one way or another. But again, this encouragingly serious.

Stats Watch

The Bezzle: “Atlanta pauses scooter permits after deaths” [NBC]. “Atlanta’s mayor put a pause on the city’s issuance of permits for smartphone-based electric scooter rentals Thursday following two recent deaths. Like many U.S. cities, Atlanta is trying to figure out how to deal with the sudden appearance of startups that offer dockless, electric scooters that are rentable via smartphones.” • “Sudden appearance” = regulatory arbitrage.

The Bezzle: “McKinsey Advised Johnson & Johnson on Increasing Opioid Sales” [New York Times]. “One lawsuit stated that McKinsey advised a pharmaceutical company to ‘get more patients on higher doses of opioids’ and study techniques ‘for keeping patients on opioids longer.’ And in a civil trial that wrapped up last week, Oklahoma joined two other states — Massachusetts and New Jersey — in showing that McKinsey offered advice to a drug company on how to increase opioid sales at a time when abuse of its pain medicine was widespread. Although McKinsey is not a defendant, Oklahoma used McKinsey consulting records to help build its case.” • Have I run this clip from Michael Clayton before? It’s about a large law firm, but it might as well be about McKinsey:

youtube

How do they sleep nights?

The Bezzle: “Tesla Loses a Founder, and a Piece of Its Soul” [Industry Week]. “On Wednesday, as Tesla announced that it had delivered 95,356 cars in its most recent quarter and another net loss, it also revealed that [J.B.] Straubel will cede his CTO position and step away from the daily grind to become an adviser to the company. For longtime Tesla watchers, it’s an astonishing change. Straubel, 43, represents, alongside Elon Musk, the soul of the automaker—a true believer in electric cars and how they could reshape the world…. [S]traubel very much was the Woz to Musk’s Jobs and so many of the great parts of Tesla emanated from the spirit of that kid playing with batteries in his backyard.” • The author was Musk’s biographer, which no doubt accounts for his curious notion that Tesla has a soul.

The Biosphere

“The Risk of Conflict Rises as the World Heats Up” [Scientific American]. “Scientists who study the issue say one of the clearest findings so far on climate change and state security is the former’s role in increasing the risk of domestic conflict. “There’s a lot of evidence that internal stability of societies is strongly coupled to the climate,” says Solomon Hsiang, a professor of public policy and director of the Global Policy Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley. He and other researchers have been looking at historical events to see if climate factors have increased the risk of conflict, and used their findings to extrapolate what might happen as global warming intensifies. One of Hsiang’s studies found, for instance, that the risk of civil conflict in African countries has risen 11 percent since 1980 because of the warming climate… How climate might influence international conflicts is not as clear. ” • So that’s good news. I was thinking we’d need the oil for the Pentagon. I guess we’ll just need it for the cops and the National Guard.

“Water Shortages, Murder, and Chaos: The Grim Future of Heat Waves” [Vice]. “Compare that to India’s heat wave and drought earlier this summer, during which police had to guard water deliveries from rioters. A water tanker driver was beaten up, one man stabbed six people, and a 33-year-old named D Anand Babu died after being attacked with logs and “hacked with deadly weapons.” He’d reportedly confronted an older man and his three sons for taking large amounts of water from a public tap. That heat-related brutality seems shocking, but climate change could make it more common. A violence researcher contacted by VICE, Iowa State University’s Andreas Miles-Novelo, suggests that the difference between the outcomes of each heat wave comes down to the U.S. being in a temperate climate and having more abundant natural resources. He warns that as rising global temperatures make extreme events and conditions more common, not even America’s vast environmental privilege will make its citizens immune from violence.”

Games

“65% of online gamers face threats, stalking, other ‘severe harassment’” [CNET]. “Online gaming may be popular and fun, but it’s not without pitfalls. More than 70% of online gamers have experienced some form of harassment, according to a survey released Thursday from the Anti-Defamation League’s Center on Technology and Society. And 65% of players said they’ve experienced “severe harassment,” including physical threats, stalking and sustained harassment…. Among online gamers who experience harassment, 53% reported being targeted based on their race, religion, ability, gender, sexual orientation or ethnicity, according to the ADL. Nearly 30% also report being doxed, which means having their contact or other personal information published online.” • What do our gamer readers think of this?

“The happiness of the otaku: Daydreaming to well-being” [Japan Times]. “Otaku now is mostly taken to mean people with an obsessive interest in something, particularly manga and anime. The nickname seems to have come about because of a feeling that such people are socially withdrawn and never progress beyond calling other people by super-formal pronouns. And while there has been some reclaiming of the name, there is still a negative connotation attached to it…. Yoshinori Sugiura and Tomoko Sugiura of Hiroshima University surveyed 800 adults and scored them for their consumption of ‘otaku contents’ — that is, the amount of time they spent watching anime or playing video games, their sense of well being and their tendency to daydream…. Sure enough, the survey indicated that among avid consumers of otaku contents or highly mindful people, a higher frequency of daydreaming was related to higher feelings of well-being. The pattern wasn’t seen in people not consuming large amounts of anime or games, or in people who do not practice mindfulness.”

Health Care

“How “Medicare Extra” gets to universal coverage without single-payer” [Vox]. “Like Medicare-for-all — and unlike Obamacare — it’s universal, it uses Medicare’s pricing power to hold down costs, and it rebuilds the entire health system around public insurance. But like Obamacare, it’s designed to minimize middle-class tax increases while stepping gingerly around people’s fear of change and mistrust of the government. And so, unlike Sen. Bernie Sanders’s Medicare-for-all bill, it holds on to much of the employer-based private insurance market and includes means-tested premiums and cost sharing for all but the poorest Americans.” • If only venues like Vox hadn’t worked so hard, along with conservatives, to maximize “people’s fear of change and mistrust of the government.”

Black Injustice Tipping Point

“Hundreds of black deaths in 1919 are being remembered” [Associated Press]. “America in the summer of 1919 ran red with blood from racial violence, and yet today, 100 years later, not many people know it even happened. It flowed in small towns like Elaine, Arkansas, in medium-size places such as Annapolis, Maryland, and Syracuse, New York, and in big cities like Washington and Chicago. Hundreds of African American men, women and children were burned alive, shot, hanged or beaten to death by white mobs…. “The people who were the icons of the civil rights movement were raised by the people who survived Red Summer,” said Saje Mathieu, a history professor at the University of Minnesota.” • Well, as for “distrust,” there was the whole slavery thing. The story also mentions the Chicago Defender, which sadly just went all digital this year. Read the whole thing.

“‘Ready to explode’: How a black teen’s drifting raft triggered a deadly week of riots 100 years ago in Chicago” [Chicago Tribune]. “[Juanita Mitchell] — one of the last living eyewitnesses to Chicago’s most violent racial conflict that began on July 27, 1919 — still recalls her uncle Cecil’s signal that white men armed with guns had crossed Wentworth Avenue, the racial dividing line, and entered their neighborhood.” • An episode of the Red Summer. This too is worth reading in full.

Guillotine Watch

“Amtrak will launch nonstop service between Washington, D.C. and New York” [WaPo]. “Acela Nonstop will include one northbound and one southbound train per day on weekdays only. The southbound train will leave New York’s Pennsylvania station at 6:35 a.m. and arrive at Washington, D.C.’s Union Station around 9:10 a.m. The northbound train will leave Union Station at 4:30 p.m. and arrive in New York around 7:05 p.m.” • I would think that, things being as they are, we would want to slow down decision-making on the Acela Corridor, rather than speed it up.

“Photographers, Instagrammers: Stop Being So D*mn Selfish and Disrespectful” [PetaPixel]. From the lavender fields of Provence: “These weren’t people wanting to enjoy the view – or even capture the scenery to share and enjoy well into the future with friends. These are people so obsessed with their own sense of self-importance for the sake of a few instant ‘likes’ on their social media profile that they find it perfectly acceptable to trespass, steal, disrespect the workers and their land – all in the name of ‘influencing’… Slowly, an hour before sunset, a tractor and cherry-picker made its way towards ‘the tree’ at the end of the rows. The tree that everyone had been focused on, the tree that ‘made the shot’. Not to harvest, but to unveil…

…their sign. A PLEA, to those who were trampling their hard work, produce and land.”

“Did it have the desired effect? No, of course not.” • Sigh. Don’t be like infuencers.

Class Warfare

I was looking for an appropriate song to share my emotions about Brexit, and came up with this:

youtube

but I also encountered this wonderful article on the Ramones from Rolling Stone–

“The Curse of the Ramones” [Rolling Stone]. On the music: “When Tommy joined the band as drummer – as the story goes, none of the drummers they auditioned could play without bombast and flourishes – the Ramones’ sound came together. ‘I wanted to lock in with the guitar,’ he told Mojo in 2011. ‘Most people assume that the bass and drums lock in together … But I locked in with Johnny, and Dee Dee’s bass was the underpinning of it all.’ The effect was primitive but also avant-garde: harmonic ideas stacked on a rapid-fi re momentum. ‘We used block chording as a melodic device, and the harmonics resulting from the distortion of the amplifiers created countermelodies,’ Tommy told Timothy White in Rolling Stone. ‘We used the wall of sound as a melodic rather than a riff form; it was like a song within a song, created by a block of chords droning.’” • But read the article for the life stories of each of the Ramones; it’s quite likely that if they had been born into the opioid epidemic, they would have been caught up in it and not survived. So everything’s going according to plan!

News of the Wired

“The Strange Similarity of Neuron and Galaxy Networks” [Nautilus]. “[W]e—an astrophysicist and a neuroscientist—joined forces to quantitatively compare the complexity of galaxy networks and neuronal networks…. Not only are the complexities of the brain and cosmic web actually similar, but so are their structures. The universe may be self-similar across scales that differ in size by a factor of a billion billion billion…. Is the apparent similarity [between images of the cosmic web and the brain] just the human tendency to perceive meaningful patterns in random data (apophenia)? Remarkably enough, the answer seems to be no: Statistical analysis shows these systems do indeed present quantitative similarities. Researchers regularly use a technique called power spectrum analysis to study the large-scale distribution of galaxies. The power spectrum of an image measures the strength of structural fluctuations belonging to a specific spatial scale. In other words, it tells us how many high-frequency and low-frequency notes make the peculiar spatial melody of each image. A stunning message emerges from the power spectrum graph in Figure 2 (below): The relative distribution of fluctuations in the two networks is remarkably similar, over several orders of magnitude.” • Word of the day: Isomorphism.

“‘How to Read a Japanese Poem’ by Steven D Carter” [Asian Review of Books]. “[T]he poem included here is actually about love, and we know that Shikishi was a virtual recluse. What could she know about that subject? The comment section explains; she creates a persona, ‘a rhetorical extension of herself based on literary precedents’ and, of course, drawn on her own life in the formality of the imperial court.” More isomorphism?

* * *

Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, with (a) links, and even better (b) sources I should curate regularly, (c) how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal, and (d) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. Today’s plant (WB):

WB writes: “Willow branch sculpture at the University of Minnesota Landscape Arboretum. Artist’s Statement: “Often the public imagines that a work of art should be made to last, but I believe that a sculpture, like a good flower bed, has its seasons.’” – Patrick Dougherty

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So do feel free to make a contribution today or any day. Here is why: Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for five or ten days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of small donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals. So if you see something you especially appreciate, do feel free to click this donate button:

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If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!

2:00PM Water Cooler 7/26/2019

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#Digital Marketing #SEO #Social Media Marketing #Nigeria Digital Marketing Company #Lead Generation

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courtneytincher · 5 years ago

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Germany flies into ‘perfect storm’ as economy heads towards recession — live updates

German economy shrank 0.1pc in the first quarter as trade fears weighed on exports Angela Merkel says Europe’s largest economy is entering “difficult phase” Eurozone stocks open down on recession worries Analysis: The four reasons Germany is plunging towards recession Germany’s economy is halfway to recession, after shrinking in the three months to June as global tensions put pressure on its export-driven manufacturing sector. Europe’s largest economy contracted by 0.1pc in the second quarter, following what state statistical office Destatis called “a slight decline in economic performance”. Over the past year, Germany’s economy grew by just 0.4pc, its worst performance in years. A closely-watched survey of investors yesterday found German economic sentiment had plummeted to its lowest level since the Eurozone crisis in 2011. Speaking before the widely-anticipated fall was published, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany’s economy was entering a “difficult phase,” adding: “We will react depending on the situation.” If the German economy declines again between July and September — the third quarter — it will be seen as having entered a technical recession, which it narrowly avoided last year. European stock markets opened in the red this morning, with Germany’s DAX down around 0.4pc. The continent’s top indices had rallied yesterday after the US announced it would delay tariffs on around $150bn of Chinese exports, easing fears of an impending trade war. 8:45AM Round-up: Government urges no-deal preparation, FirstGroup wins West Coast and HS2 franchises Michael Gove is in charge of preparations for a no-deal Brexit Credit: Heathcliff O'Malley Two big stories from this morning: Government urges industry groups to prepare businesses for no-deal Brexit: The Government has asked industry groups to come up with “creative and practical” ways to help businesses prepare for a no-deal Brexit. FirstGroup wins lucrative West Coast rail and HS2 franchises: Firstgroup and Trenitalia have won the contract to run the West Coast rail franchise and the HS2 high speed railway, when it is built, in a deal that will see the Government share economic risk with the private operators. 8:25AM Merkel: ‘We’re heading into a difficult phase’ — re-cap Angela Merkel (right) with defence minister and heir apparent Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer Credit: Markus Schreiber/ AP It was Angela Merkel’s first day back from her summer holidays on Monday, and the German Chancellor must have known she was returning to bad news. Today’s figures showed an expected 0.1pc second-quarter GDP contraction in Europe’s largest economy, as the export-heavy nation struggles with global disruption. Gross domestic product in the 2nd quarter of 2019 down 0.1% on the previous quarter. https://t.co/fsQPJMuMGiGDPpic.twitter.com/H1RSx7EDYf— Destatis news (@destatis_news) August 14, 2019 At a town hall yesterday, Ms Merkel was pushed on the state of Germany’s economy. “It’s true, we’re heading into a difficult phase,” she said, adding of today’s figures: “We will react depending on the situation.” “Domestic demand is still somewhat propping up the economy,” the outgoing Chancellor added. Germany published its draft budget yesterday, which maintained a policy of not increasing net debt: suggesting the plan isn’t to spend its way to growth. If the German economy is on its way to a recession, that will be confirmed in November. Sorting out the country’s economic issues, however, may ultimately fall to Ms Merkel’s successor. The Chancellor reiterated yesterday that she will not seek public office again after she steps down in 2021. 8:11AM ING: ‘The end of a golden decade for Germany’ Is it time for a shake-up in German industry? Credit: Ralph Orlowski/REUTERS ING economist Carsten Brzeski has assessed this morning’s GDP figures, and what kind of action they may prompt from Germany’s government and the European Central Bank, which last month hinted that it was preparing a package of measures to help stimulate the economy. He writes: Today’s GDP report definitely marks the end of a golden decade for the German economy. Since the end of the 2008/09 recession, the economy has grown by an average of 0.5pc [quarter on quarter]every quarter. In fact, the economy grew in 35 out of the last 40 quarters. However, under the surface of these impressive headline numbers, a worrisome trend has emerged. Since 3Q 2018, the economy has been in a de facto stagnation, with quarterly GDP growth at an average of zero percent... ...There is no need to panic, but instead to act. Looking ahead, the future path of the German economy highly depends on external events and government action. Obviously, any relief in the ongoing trade conflicts would benefit the German economy. Companies could still use extremely favourable financing conditions and invest. However, the principle of hope is not enough. The pressure on the German government to act will increase. Mr Brzeski said Europe’s largest economy now needs a stimulus package aimed at “digitisation, climate protection, energy transition, infrastructure and education”. Markets.com’s Neil Wilson added: The export heavy economy is suffering as global trade contracts. Unless maybe Merkel and co can shake off their dogma — it’s only been a hundred years since hyperinflation. �� No upside surprise in Germany. Real GDP fell by 0.1% q-o-q in Q2, decelerating from a 0.4% rise in Q1. We don’t have numerical details but destatis mentioned that domestic demand contributed positively to growth, while foreign trade was a drag (1/n) pic.twitter.com/sZoh7KKUyM— Nadia Gharbi (@nghrbi) August 14, 2019 7:56AM Final details on second quarter will reveal reasons underpinning contraction Claus Vistesen, from Pantheon Macroeconomics, says the data is “Not pretty, but slightly better than we had feared based on the monthly data.” He adds: This information is of very little use, though, until we see the final breakdown between investment and inventories. Looking ahead, early Q3 sentiment data suggest that the economy remains weak. The risk of a recession is now elevated, but indicators for domestic private demand remain relatively resilient, especially in the services sector and with respect to consumers’ spending. By contrast, leading indicators for manufacturing and construction suggest that investment is slowing, and today’s data suggest that the final Q2 details will confirm this. It’s worth remembering that today’s data follows a mega slump in German investor confidence, as revealed yesterday by research group ZEW. Here’s our full report on that data: Shock slump in German confidence adds to recession fears 7:33AM ‘Door is wide open to a German recession’ The mood in Germany is not great. Here's what Klaus Borger, an economist at public investment bank KfW, has said about the GDP figures: With the escalating trade conflicts of the USA, the ever more probable chaos (of) Brexit and the weaker world economy, the perfect storm has been brewing since the summer of last year. The door at least to a technical recession... is wide open. Germany’s most important export, cars, have driven the decline in its ailing manufacturing sector, but it’s not the only issue facing the country. My colleague Tom Rees had examined the four key problems facing the stumbling German economy: Is Germany sinking towards recession after another contraction? 7:16AM German contraction, train ticket hike and trade wars A Volkswagen factory worker Credit: FILIP SINGER/ EPA Good morning. The big news out this morning is that fears have increased that Germany is heading for a recession after suffering a 0.1pc contraction in its economy in the second quarter of the year. The shrinkage means Germany is now lagging the other largest economies in the eurozone, after the second quarter saw Italy flatline and France grow 0.2 percent. As hard data and soft indicators such as surveys of business, investor and consumer sentiment have eroded in recent weeks and months, economists have warned Europe's powerhouse could suffer falling output and even a technical recession — two successive quarters of negative growth. Federal statistics authority Destatis said higher spending by private households and the state as well as increased investments helped support the economy at home. But “foreign trade developments braked economic growth, since exports fell back more sharply than imports compared with the previous quarter,” the statisticians added. Elsewhere, markets may be pushed higher today after President Donald Trump delayed tariffs on some Chinese goods, including laptops and mobile phones, until December 15. The reprieve came after a call between US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese vice-premier Liu He ahead of tariffs that would have hit $300bn (£249bn) of imports from China on September 1. The two sides plan more talks in the next two weeks, according to Chinese state-run media. 5 things to start your day 1) Confidence in the German economy has crashed to its lowest level since the depths of the eurozone debt crisis, fuelling fears of a recession. 2) Fears are growing that the jobs miracle could be close to its end as unemployment edged up in June, the number of vacancies slid and productivity took its biggest plunge since 2013 Wages and unemployment 3) Today we'll find out how much more a train ticket will cost next year. Inflation figures released later will be used by the rail industry to calculate January’s rises. Increases in annual season ticket prices 4) Hong Kong protests heated up for a second day yesterdayand will be in focus again today as one of Asia's key transport hub remains closed. US senator Ben Cardin warned late last night that Hong Kong could lose the special trade status it has enjoyed under US law if Beijing intervenes directly. 5) Marshall Motors chief executive Daksh Gupta has said that buying a car would not only become more expensive in the event of a no-deal Brexit, but motorists could have a smaller range of vehicles to choose from. “If we don’t get a deal and sterling falls then Britain will become a much less attractive market and less profitable market for manufacturers,” he said. “We’ll probably see fewer cars coming into the UK.” What happened overnight Asian equities rallied on Wednesday as investors breathed a collective sigh of relief at news the US had delayed tariffs on a swathe of Chinese goods, easing tensions in the countries' bitter trade war. The news provided some much-needed respite for investors, who have come under intense pressure from a range of issues including concerns about the global economy, Hong Kong's protests, the trade war and Brexit. Wall Street’s three main indexes surged on the announcement with the tech-rich Nasdaq up 2pc, and the Dow and S&P; 500 more than 1pc higher. The US gains filtered through to Asia where Hong Kong climbed 0.5 percent. Elsewhere the surge in US stocks lifted MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan by 0.9pc. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.6pc while South Korea's KOSPI advanced 0.8% and Japan's Nikkei rose 0.6pc. High-yielding, riskier currencies also enjoyed some gains with the Mexican peso and South African rand more than one percent higher, South Korea's won gaining 0.8 percent and the Indonesian rupiah 0.6 percent up. China's yuan, which has plunged in the past two weeks on worries about the trade stand-off — sparking accusations Beijing is a currency manipulator — also bounced. Coming up today Analysts are expecting low-single-digit growth in Prudential’s results for the first half of the year. That’s not the main event — front and centre on Wednesday will be extra details on its plans to demerge its asset management operation (M&G; Prudential) and its plans for Brexit. Also reporting is builder Balfour Beatty, which has undergone a major restructuring in the wake of outsourcing giant Carillion’s sudden collapse. In March, the company announced it has increased profit despite a fall in revenue, and has said that it is aiming at “higher quality” work. Its shares have been feeling the pressure however. Interim results: Admiral, Apax Global Alpha, Avast, Awilco Drilling, Balfour Beatty, CLS Holdings, Hochschild Mining, Lookers, Prudential, Riverstone Energy, Zeal Network Economics: Inflation figures (UK), Sentiment, industrial production, employment and GDP (all Eurozone)

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bluebookweb · 6 years ago

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According to a Recent Study/Survey … Mid-July 2018 Edition

This edition of Modern Restaurant Management (MRM) magazine’s “According to …” research roundup features the reasons why people do and don’t dine out, digital and loyalty trends from Tillster, hot dog on the menu, pizza and a movie and Millennial vs. Gen Z trends.

The Why? Behind The Dine

Across the U.S., 85 percent of diners decide what to eat for dinner the same day the meal occurs, so it may not come as a surprise that compared to 2015, convenient meal solutions grew across almost every category and generation. Research released today in the 4th edition of The Why? Behind The Dine™ from Acosta and Technomic explores the most recent dining developments and motivators that are changing the way diners engage with foodservice.

“Whether it’s enjoying a family dinner out or picking up carry-out food, diners are seeking convenient, healthy options for themselves and their families,” said Colin Stewart, Senior Vice President at Acosta. “We are seeing more diners take advantage of the seemingly endless array of meal solutions, be it a quick trip through the drive-thru, grocery prepared foods, lunch from a food truck, or preparing dinner using a meal/ingredient kit.

Acosta and Technomic’s The Why? Behind The Dine™ presents a comprehensive overview of dining habits across generations and key segments.

Highlights from the report include:

Convenient Eats

Delivery food continues to be a popular meal solution for diners. In the three months leading up to the survey, 51 percent of total U.S. diners and 77 percent of Millennial diners reported ordering delivery food.

Pizza isn’t the only food diners want delivered. Diners surveyed expressed interest in everything from hamburgers (28 percent), chicken wings (27 percent) and Mexican fare (21 percent), to barbecue (14 percent) and desserts (11 percent).

In 2015, only eight percent of U.S. diners indicated they had ordered a meal/ingredient kit online. That figure increased by 10 percentage points to 18 percent of total U.S. diners by 2017, with more diners with kids and Millennial diners engaging with this option.

Welcoming Gen Z to the Table

Gen Z diners are already outpacing Boomer and Silent diners in reported monthly spending on food prepared outside the home.

Fifty-eight percent of Gen Z diners agreed they use the internet to find the best restaurant deals, the most of any generation.

Nearly 70 percent of Gen Z diners agreed they like it when they have restaurant leftovers for another meal.

Dining Out All Stars: Diners with Kids

Diners with kids reported their monthly spending on food prepared outside the home was more than twice that of diners without kids ($208 versus $95).

Healthier options continue to be important among diners with kids, with 46 percent eating more salads at restaurants over the past year, and 43 percent eating more restaurant meals with locally sourced ingredients.

Diners with kids are plugged in while dining out. Twenty-eight percent connect to Wi-Fi on their personal mobile device while at a restaurant.

The 4th edition of The Why? Behind The Dine™ study was fielded in November 2017 in partnership with Technomic Inc., using a random sample of 1,500 U.S. diners. To access the full report, click here.

Reward Me: Demand Grows for Digital Coupons

In its new Digital Coupons and Loyalty Index, Tillster examines how a restaurant’s digital coupons or loyalty strategy can help them to grow sales and engage with customers. The Index showcases how QSR and fast casual customers are increasingly motivated by digital coupons and rewards.

For the second year in a row, Tillster partnered with esteemed research firm, SSI, to conduct the study on the digital coupons and loyalty program usage of more than 2,000 QSR and fast casual customers. The Digital Coupons and Loyalty Index summarizes the proprietary study’s key findings, studying trends from the last year and looking ahead to the next year. One significant finding from the study is that more than 80 percent of all QSR and fast casual customers would visit a restaurant more if digital coupons were offered or if they were part of a rewards program.

“We facilitate more than 50 million orders a year, for many of the largest restaurant brands in the world,” says Perse Faily, CEO of Tillster. “It’s clear that digital savings are no longer just for the tech-savvy or for the price conscious. App-based rewards are today, as our study shows, an important driver of brand loyalty and a growth opportunity in QSR and fast casual dining.”

Digital Coupons Drive Change in Customer Behavior, Restaurant Visits

Digital coupons are playing an increasingly important role in influencing customer choice. The Tillster Index found that a significant percentage of customers would choose one brand over another, or would try a new brand if a digital coupon were offered. Additionally, loyalty and rewards programs are driving restaurant visits across all age groups and income brackets.

Usage of Digital Tools

While consumers always trend towards a good deal, the Tillster Index highlights the importance of deploying digital coupons and loyalty programs at the right times and places to help restaurants drive incremental revenue, reward loyalty and target personalized offerings for greater effect. To see key stats on how digital coupons and loyalty programs are best deployed, download Tillster’s full Digital Coupons and Loyalty Index.

Uptick in Momentum

Year-over-year chain restaurant sales increased 1.1 percent in June, the fourth consecutive month of positive or flat comp sales. The increases compare to relatively soft prior year numbers, but continue to suggest a turning point from the consistent declines of 2016 and 2017. Performance began to improve in the fourth quarter of 2017 and the industry has reported monthly sales increases in six of the past nine months. These insights come from TDn2K’s Black Box Intelligence™ data, based on weekly sales from over 30,000 locations representing 170+ brands and nearly $70 billion in annual sales.

The comp sales numbers are encouraging, but come against a backdrop of continued softness in guest counts. Store traffic declined -1.7 percent in June. This is an improvement of roughly one percentage point over trends from earlier in the year, but it points out the headwinds faced by the industry with respect to driving visit frequency.

Same-store sales in the second quarter of 2018 were up 0.8 percent, the third consecutive quarterly increase and another indication of a strengthening industry environment. Growth was consistent throughout the period with positive sales in 12 of the 13 reporting weeks. Traffic was down -2.0 percent, a slight improvement over the -2.6 percent drop in the first quarter.

Off-Premise Sales Fuel Growth in 2018 Year to date, sales are up 0.5 percent in 2018 versus a -1.2 percent decline at this point last year. All segments except fine dining were stronger in 2018. Compared to 2017 performance, casual dining and fast casual reported the most improvement.

The numbers reflect a changing landscape with respect to how consumers use chain restaurants. Virtually all the observed gains have come from to-go and delivery sales. Every segment recorded a decline in dine-in sales and every segment except family dining and quick service experienced to-go sales increases. Fine dining and upscale casual reported large percentage increases, but off-premise is a relatively small portion of their business. Their in-unit sales were the strongest in the industry and reflect the importance of a dining experience to consumers visiting those brands. The degree to which they can expand food delivery remains to be seen.

The casual dining segment reported double-digit increases in to-go sales so far in 2018. Many of these brands already have significant existing off-premise businesses and are capitalizing on a variety of social media and technical innovations to exploit additional to-go and delivery opportunities.

Top Line Driven by Pricing Check average is up significantly this year. For the first six months of 2018, average check is up 2.9 percent versus 2.2 percent for the same period last year. Price increases, largely in response to higher labor costs, are certainly a factor. But a large portion of the change in average check is attributable to casual dining, which may be influenced by the previously noted increase in to-go and delivery.

Economy is Robust, But Tariffs Loom “The stronger growth in the second quarter was broad-based and has supported robust hiring,” according to Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors and TDn2K economist.

“With more people working and wages rising a little faster, consumers are spending again. The good news for the restaurant industry is that households are not over-extending themselves as much as they had been. They are now saving a little more as well as spending more. That means the improved demand at restaurants should be sustained. The only risk to the economy is the emerging trade war. Right now, it is largely a skirmish that should not affect economic activity significantly. But if the tit-for-tat on tariffs accelerates, growth could be harmed, inflation could accelerate and interest rates could rise even further. The best guess is that it will not reach that stage, so expectations are that the economy and consumer spending will be solid the rest of the year. That bodes well for restaurant sales.”

The Downside of a Robust Labor Market Unfortunately, the same strong labor market that propels restaurant spending has also produced the most challenging staffing environment in many years. Turnover at both the hourly and management levels is at record highs and has become the “new normal”. Data from TDn2K’s People Report™ provides little comfort that market conditions will change soon. Accordingly, brands are struggling to adapt their service models to the new reality of low unemployment and rising wages. This is an especially difficult balancing act. Margins are always a priority, but experienced operators are well aware of the established linkage between quality service, consumer sentiment and revenue.

The upswing in sales is welcome news. General economic conditions are a bit fragile but should be favorable enough to support continued demand. There are fundamental challenges facing the industry, including difficult labor markets and an over-supply of restaurants. Nonetheless, we are encouraged that top-performing brands consistently find ways to deliver strong results in sales, people metrics, and social sentiment.

Gen Z Food Trends

Millennials have had their time in the spotlight; now, companies are looking to the next generation to see how they will impact the future of the food and drink industry. Generation Z*, who are also known as the iGeneration, has the potential to reset expectations for health and wellness, increase the reach of international cuisine and heighten creativity in the kitchen, according to the latest research from Mintel.

Head start on a healthy lifestyle

Regardless of age, sugar is at the top of parents’ watchlists when it comes to what their kids eat and drink. In fact, 60 percent of parents with kids aged 12-17 and 55 percent of parents with kids aged 18+ in the household report saying “no” to their kids’ food and drink choices based on sugar content. But while sugar is a key concern for parents, just 11 percent of US food and drink launches aimed at children (ages 5-12) from June 2017-May 2018 had low, no or reduced sugar claims, according to Mintel Global New Products Database (GNPD).

With parents on the lookout, America’s youngest consumers are increasingly growing health-conscious themselves. In fact, one quarter (25 percent) of teens aged 15-17 say they worry about staying healthy, with another 49 percent agreeing that they think drinking soda is unhealthy.

“Generation Z has come of age at a time when health and wellness is a major consideration. Many younger members of Generation Z follow their parents’ healthy ways and it seems health-consciousness only gets stronger as they approach adulthood. However, health is multi-faceted for this group, suggesting that better-for-you formulations, such as craveable fruits and vegetables, can be expanded to give this generation options that fit with their ever-changing diet priorities,” said Dana Macke, Associate Director, Lifestyles and Leisure Reports, at Mintel.

Gen Z goes international

Today’s younger generations are the most diverse in US history and in addition to their varied racial and ethnic backgrounds, parents are raising their children to have broader palates. Gen Z seems to be cultivating an appreciation for international cuisine from a young age as 36 percent of US parents of children under age 18 agree that their kids enjoy eating international foods.

Interest in international cuisine goes well beyond the more commonplace varieties such as Italian, Mexican and Chinese as Gen Z consumers are driving consumption of more emerging international food and drink. In addition to interest in eating at international restaurants such as Indian (36 percent), Middle Eastern (38 percent) or African (27 percent), adult Gen Z consumers are also much more likely than other generations to find culinary inspiration from social media: 62 percent of young adults aged 18-22 say they cook international cuisines at home from social media, compared to 46 percent of Millennials (aged 23-40) and 23 percent of Generation X consumers (aged 41-52) who cook at home.

“Generation Z is America’s most diverse generation yet. With exposure to international foods starting at an early age, whether in restaurants or at home, Generation Z is more likely to be open to the latest international food trend or innovative fusion creation. These adventurous habits are creating opportunities across categories, presenting potential for products such as tikka masala meal kits or Chinese Peking duck-flavored potato chips. While restaurants remain the most common points of discovery for international cuisine, younger consumers’ exposure to a range of cuisine types creates opportunities for brands to offer more authentic and hybrid flavors,” said Jenny Zegler, Associate Director, Mintel Food & Drink.

Digitally native upbringing leads to DIY mentality

Raised in an era where consumers have access to information at their fingertips 24/7, younger generations have grown up with the ability to thoroughly research their hobbies and interests, resulting in 80 percent of Gen Z consumers under age 18 saying their hobbies/interests are just as important as their school work. What’s more, 36 percent of consumers aged 10-17 and 31 percent of those aged 18-22 believe that being creative is an important factor to being successful as an adult. This highlights an opportunity for food and drink brands to offer do-it-yourself experiences that help tweens, teens and young adults be creative and, eventually, confident in the kitchen.

“The wide range of food media, whether MasterChef Junior or YouTube videos, has piqued an interest in food and drink among some members of Generation Z. This younger generation’s easy access to technology and interest in being creative presents an opening for interactive products that encourage Gen Z to safely experiment and extend their passion for food and drink, such as chips that allow consumers to make their own flavor or kits to make more complex recipes or international meals at home,” concluded Zegler.

Plant-Based Popularity Grows

Plant-based innovation is flourishing. Growing consumer interest in health, sustainability and ethics is driving plant-derived ingredients and products into high popularity. Innova Market Insights reports that plant-based product claims increased by 62 percent globally (CAGR, 2013-2017) with growth occurring on platforms such as plant proteins, active botanicals, sweeteners, herbs & seasonings and coloring foodstuffs.

“The dairy alternatives market has been a particular beneficiary of this trend,” says Lu Ann Williams, Director of Innovation at Innova Market Insights. “With the growing availability and promotion of plant-based options to traditional dairy lines, specifically milk beverages, and cultured products such as yogurt, frozen desserts and ice cream,” she stated.

The dairy alternatives category was largely pioneered by and continues to be led by beverages. Global sales of dairy alternative drinks are set to reach US$16.3bn in 2018 and they accounted for over eight percent of global dairy launches recorded by Innova Market Insights in 2017, up from 7 percent over 2016. Actual global launches have more than doubled over a five-year period.

Spoonable non-dairy yogurt has also seen strongly rising levels of interest, but from a smaller base, with a 48 percent CAGR for the 2013-2017 period taking its share of dairy launches from less than 0.5 percent in 2012 to 1.5 percent in 2017. According to Innova Market Insights’ consumer research, one in three US consumers have increased their consumption of plant-based milk/yogurt in the two years to the end of 2017.

“In the move to offer something new, we are starting to see an increasing variety of non-soy plant-based ingredients, including cereals such as rice, oats and barley,” notes Williams. “We also noticed an increase in nuts, such as almonds, hazelnuts, cashews, walnuts and macadamias, as well as coconut and more unusual options such as lupin, hemp and flaxseed.”

Interest in plant-based eating is clearly reflected in developments in the meat substitutes market, where global sales are set to grow to US$4.2bn by 2022. The range of ingredients used for meat substitutes includes vegetables and grains, as well as traditional sources such as soy and specialist manufactured brands such as Quorn and Valess.

Gravitation towards plant-based diets in general, along with interest in vegan, vegetarian and flexitarian lifestyles and concerns over animal welfare, have together served to increase interest and NPD has subsequently seen an 11 percent CAGR for the 2013-2017 period. Research also indicates that four in ten US consumers increased their consumption of meat substitutes/alternatives during 2017.

The Tech Effect

Technology is becoming an increasingly integral part of shopping and dining experiences for Americans, and in turn, technology successes and failures are seriously impacting whether consumers return to a store or restaurant.

Nearly half of consumers say that positive experiences due to well-functioning technology lead them to greater brand confidence (46 percent) and more frequent visits to the business (44 percent). Conversely, negative experiences due to malfunctioning technology result in a decline in brand confidence and less frequent visits to the business for more than a quarter of consumers (28 percent), the report says.

Boomtown issued the report, titled “The Digital Forward Customer Experience: New Expectations and Obstacles for Today’s Storefront.” The report examined how tech savvy national brick and mortar retail and restaurant chains are transforming the experiences and expectations of consumers across the entire shopping and dining landscape.

Boomtown’s report is based on a survey of 1,033 U.S. consumers. Respondents identified a strong preference for brands that make widespread use of advanced, reliable and intuitive technology. These brands, which are often called ‘digital forward’, include stores and restaurants like Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Shake Shack, Chipotle and others, and are gaining the business and loyalty of today’s consumers.

According to the Boomtown report, consumers who frequent large chain establishments over smaller businesses name technology as one of the key aspects of their in-store experience, highlighting a range of digital payment options (critical to 57 percent of consumers), online ordering and local pick up capabilities (important to 50 percent), self check-out options (important to 49 percent), and other digital offerings like in-store WiFi and real-time order information.

But the report also found that delivering a technology-driven customer experience can be fraught with risk. According to the survey, over 80 percent of consumers have encountered technical issues at retail stores and restaurants, and the consequences of a failed experience can be dire (including complaints, as well as a decline in business and brand reputation).

“These findings confirm that the digital transformation of the consumer experience is fully underway and that businesses – from small, regional shops or restaurants to national, consumer-facing chains – must invest in their technology to court and keep consumers,” said Alfred ‘Chip’ Kahn IV, CEO and founder of Boomtown. “But, investment in technology-driven customer experiences creates complexity and risk, offering the opportunity to please the customer but potentially imperiling customer relationships if the promise falls short.”

Other key findings from the research include:

When shopping or eating at large chains, 57 percent of consumers prioritize a wide range of reliable digital payment options as central to their overall experience

After a positive experience involving technology, 63 percent of consumers will compliment the location owner or refer the location to others

For 56 percent of consumers, a negative technology experience will translate to filing an official complaint

Over 80 percent of consumers have had at least one encounter with a technical glitch (such as failed payment processing or non-functional Wi-Fi) as they shopped or dined; nearly 60 percent of consumers have encountered these technical glitches multiple times

Nearly 60 percent have encountered slow or malfunctioning electronic payment systems

One in three respondents has encountered faulty or unavailable Wi-Fi or incorrect information online (36 percent)

“Retail stores and restaurants should acknowledge that customers’ expectations and demands have grown to include an intuitive, seamless technology-driven experience,” noted Kahn. “Thanks to the precedent set by today’s digital-forward leaders, businesses large and small can learn from these strategies and deliver a better experience to their customers.”

Hot Dog Popularity

No food is more American than hot dogs. You may want to find which restaurants feature that old summer standby. We used Sirved to search every restaurant in the Eastern States and found that 18,000 restaurants offer hot dogs on their menus.

Here are some interesting facts about hot dogs:

In 2016, Americans spent over $2.4 billion on hot dogs in supermarkets. Throw in every dog that was eaten in a ball park or at the beach, and the numbers are astronomical.

LA Dodger fans consumed 2.6 million hot dogs last season.

On Independence Day this year, Americans will eat 150 million hot dogs.

Top 5 hot dog eating cities? Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, Boston and Phoenix

Approximately 93 percent of the restaurants call them ‘hot dogs’ but they appear with nicknames such as ballpark, foot long, corn dog, chilli dogs and jumbo as well. What other restaurant menu app can generate that kind of data in the time it takes you to spell ‘mustard’ out loud? And by the way, did you know that 71 percent of Americans prefer mustard on their dogs, that’s well ahead of ketchup and chilli as toppings. Customers in Atlanta, might want to try their famous dog loaded with coleslaw and Vidalia onions. Or how about a Fenway Frank at that famous Boston ballpark which features the classic mustard and relish but it often comes with baked beans as well. While in Cincinnati you may want to devour their famous Coney dog topped with chilli and a mound of grated cheddar cheese.

Casual Diners Want Fresh

Diners who have visited a casual dining chain in the last 6 months would be likelier to return if the chains served fresher food, according to TrendSource’s 2018 Food Service Industry Report.

The report—which considers consumers’ perceptions, practices, priorities, and pain points in the casual dining industry—focuses on the top-20 chains in the United States, from Texas Roadhouse all the way to Denny’s and back. For owners and operators, there is comforting and distressing news alike.

The majority of respondents choose casual dining chains for their comfort and casual atmosphere, because they are easy for everybody in a group to agree on, and because they can “be themselves” within them. As menus become increasingly complex at the hottest dining spots in town, many consumers find comfort in the familiar and simple, and casual dining chains seem to have that in abundance. These are not places to see and be seen, and, for many respondents, that is a positive attribute. For them, these establishments feel familiar and comforting, and that is an image operators must lean into.

But familiarity can breed contempt and, over the years, it seems consumers have grown savvy to the fact that foods are often prepared off-site and heated in the restaurant. Thus, they want these chains to serve healthier, fresher, and more interesting fare, which as TrendSource’s Director of Client and Consulting Services, Sarah Rowlett, notes, “is easier said than done” for many operators. “Pivoting to fresher food may require a rethinking of their culinary approach and business model,” she notes, “but it may ultimately prove to be a necessary change as today’s restaurant goers expect fresher and even local options at their local eateries.”

As the full report illustrates, casual dining chains, for the most part, have convinced consumers that their prices, menu variety, and even service are serviceable; consumers just want the food itself to be better. The report additionally breaks diners into clusters based on their dining priorities, separating the experiential eaters from the trend setters and the flavor fanatics. How can restaurants best appeal to these demographically disparate but ultimately similar groups of diners?

Also, which restaurants scored the highest among respondents; how do suburban, rural, and urban diners differ; and is anybody all that interested in pick-up and delivery? Learn more by downloading the full report.

Pizza and a Movie

Redbox reveals some interesting data on America’s pizza preferences.

Top findings:

90 percent of Americans think pizza and a movie are the perfect pairing for movie night at home

More than two-thirds (77 percent) of Americans describe pizza and a movie as “Movie Night Done Right”

Of those who answered “pizza” as their top pairing for movie night, 79 percent typically eat pizza from a pizza chain for Movie Night

Survey respondents spanned multiple age, gender and socioeconomic demographics:

48 percent of respondents were male, and 52 percent were female

35 percent of respondents were millennials, 30 percent were Gen X, and 35 percent were baby boomers

30 percent of respondents had children under the age of 18 living at home, while 70 percent did not

35 percent of respondents were high school graduates, 17 percent had some college education, and 16 percent had a degree from a four-year college

‘New’ Ancient Grains

From every corner of the globe, rice and corn (maize) have been staples of the human diet for centuries. Rice and corn, along with wheat, feeds the vast majority of the world’s population. Therefore it’s easy to assume that we’ve seen virtually every conceivable incarnation of foods and dishes that incorporate rice or corn. Yet new and emerging culinary trends in restaurants across America indicate that there’s still plenty of innovation left for these “new” ancient grains, according to market research firm Packaged Facts in the recent report, Grain and Bakery Innovation: Culinary Trend Tracking Series.

“Grain innovation is a wide field of fertile soil. There’s a rising foodie fascination with traditional grains and grain food methods,” says David Sprinkle, research director for Packaged Facts. “For instance, the corn renaissance is playing out perhaps most obviously with multicultural foods such as chilaquiles & migas, more broadly with tacos as street food gone sacred, and even as taco-style toppings and tortilla chips are spiked into breakfast bowls. Plus, we can’t forget the trendy appeal of the natural and high-antioxidant colors of plant foods which play into the healthful aspects of specialty corns, rices (yes plural!), and grains.”

Even recent dietary trends favoring low-carb lifestyles haven’t been enough to derail innovation in the grain industry. Packaged Facts’ survey data published in Grain and Bakery Innovation: Culinary Trend Tracking Series, reveal that 80 percent of consumers are eating the same amounts of grain (58 percent) or have added more grain to their diets (22 percent) compared to five years ago. Additional survey data show that 85 percent of consumers don’t avoid any type of grain for dietary reasons. It adds up to good news for rice and corn.

The Reason for Rice

Why all the rice, and why now? Because #plantfoods, #healthygrains, #globalinfluences, #localsourcing, #elevatedcomfortfood. Specialty rice varieties—many of them ancient crops rescued from oblivion—and intriguing rice preparations answer all of these calls. Their tremendous variety and endless versatility open them up to innovation, and their familiarity with consumers—who may not yet know their amaranth from their farro—count for easier converts. (Corn is analogous.) Expect this trend to go far and wide.

The Case for Corn

What’s old is new again, and what’s regional is turning national. Traditional corn specialties ranging from elote (seasoned grill corn) to grits and corn nuts are being made new again by innovative menu makers and food producers, trading on neutral flavor and varied texture, as well as consumer fascination with artisanal processes and global inspirations. Elote corn on the cob is popping up as a fast-casual specialty in rainbow-hued preparations as well as a street food-inspired appetizer/snack interpreted by adventurous chefs who prize novelty. Corn nuts (chulpe or cancha in Latin America) add a pop of ultra-crunchy texture to recipes and can be flavored with all manner of adventurous seasonings, from chili powder to seaweed. Grits have evolved from a comfortingly creamy regional breakfast porridge into a cheffy signature dish, led by traditional Low Country Carolina shrimp and grits to become one of the newest trendy grains.

Impact of Restaurant Cleanliness

Foodborne diseases are responsible for about 48 million illnesses and 3,000 deaths in the U.S. each year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. At least 60 percent of these illnesses are associated with restaurants. Now, researchers at the University of Missouri have found that the cleanliness of restaurant employees is vital to customer perceptions of food safety, equally as important as a clean environment and hygienic food preparation. Restaurants, however, are significantly underperforming in this regard, identifying a clear area for improvement.

Dr. Pei Liu asked more than 300 adults who ate at a casual restaurant at least once a month to rank the importance of various food safety factors. Respondents then ranked how restaurants performed for these same factors based on their recent dining experience. Three of these factors—employees keeping fingernails clean, wearing clean uniforms and wearing gloves while handling food—were ranked as highly important but received low performance ratings. This indicated restaurants may be harming perceptions of food safety by not meeting customer expectations for the cleanliness of their employees.

The study, , also demonstrated that three categories of cleanliness were equally important for customer satisfaction: the appearance and behavior of employees, food temperature and freshness, and the appearance of the dining room and other visual aspects of the restaurant. This underlines that clean employees are as important to customer perceptions as more traditional measures of food safety.

A vast majority of Americans say that negative online reviews about restrooms would deter them from visiting a hotel (91 percent) or a restaurant (89 percent), according to a recent survey commissioned by Sofidel. The survey, conducted online by The Harris Poll, June 14-18 among 2,024 U.S. adults age 18 and older, found that roughly three in four Americans cite dirty restrooms as the top restroom issue listed in an online review that would discourage them from visiting a hotel (75 percent) or restaurant (72 percent).

“Dirty restrooms, clogged toilets, foul odors and other common bathroom issues can result in disgruntled customers leaving negative online reviews,” said Fabio Vitali, Vice President AFH Marketing & Sales for Sofidel America. “Since these reviews can deter other patrons from setting foot in these businesses, it’s crucial for owners and managers to properly maintain restrooms and carefully select products that enhance guest satisfaction and promote repeat and new business.”

Following dirty restrooms, the other top restroom issues found in online reviews that would deter Americans from visiting a hotel include:

Foul odors – online reviews mentioning smells will scare away 69 percent of Americans

Clogged toilets – 2 in 3 Americans (66 percent) view these as a dissuading factor to visit a hotel

Closed or out-of-order restrooms – more than half (52 percent) would avoid a hotel with reviews discussing unusable bathrooms

Out-of-stock essentials such as toilet paper, soap and paper towels – 51 percent would steer clear of properties with reviews mentioning a lack of restroom necessities

Broken soap or paper dispensers – nearly two in five (39 percent) wouldn’t visit a hotel that doesn’t properly maintain important fixtures

For restaurants, Americans rank restroom issues listed in online reviews in the same order as they do for hotels, with slight variations in the proportion that would avoid that type of business.

Foul odors – 66 percent

Clogged toilets – 63 percent

Closed or out-of-order – 51 percent

Out-of-stock essentials – 46 percent

Broken soap or paper dispensers – 35 percent

Meat Alternatives Market

Transparency Market Research (TMR) delivers key insights on the global meat alternatives market in its upcoming outlook titled, “Meat Alternatives Market: Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends, and Forecast 2018 – 2026”. In terms of value, the global meat alternatives market is projected to register a healthy CAGR of 6.1 percent during the forecast period due to various factors, regarding which TMR offers vital insights in detail.

The consumer shift towards social media and information technology has raised consumer awareness about how their food consumption habits impacts the environment. Animal cruelty and health issues have impacted the consumer buying behavior, especially in developed regions such as North Americaand Europe. This has also recently resulted in a sudden and startling demand for organic and natural products. Also, there has been growing awareness about the link between meat consumption and non-communicable diseases. In an attempt to cut the risks for such diseases and also for obesity, consumers are shying away from meat in their diets, which will gradually encourage them to become vegetarians in the future.

Meat alternatives are perfect to cater to the permissive needs of these consumers. There are other such consumer attitudes, such as going against animal cruelty, reducing carbon emissions, and the conservation of water (a large quantity of water is utilized for meat production/processing), which will culminate in the high consumption of meat alternatives in the future. Besides, a spurt in population growth is also likely to create the need for alternative foods.

The price of the product is one of the factors that is well thought-out by consumers while purchasing a meat alternative. Many consumers have stated concerns over the prices of meat alternatives, which are relatively higher in some countries than meat itself. In such circumstances, these expensive prices of meat alternatives are likely to affect the market growth in a bigger way than it appears, as positive consumer approach towards meat alternatives is not very mature, and high prices may drive away even those customers which are ready to opt for meat alternatives.

As meat alternatives are highly processed products, they cannot qualify for being natural products. The demographic which exhibits willingness to opt for meat alternatives also exhibits a pull towards natural products, and hence, a tendency to opt out from meat alternatives is a possibility.

While multiple studies have correlated coffee consumption with longevity, including a large umbrella study published in October of 2017 by the BMJ, fewer studies answer the question of which specific compounds present in coffee affect health outcomes. Fortunately, new leaps in DNA testing are making it possible to single out the substances that might hold the key to the beneficial qualities of coffee.

Summer SpendTrend

With summer officially here, First Data has taken a look at spending data to identify the fastest growing summer vacation destinations in the U.S.—and the results might surprise you! While you may think of the sunny beaches of Florida or Southern California when you think of summer travel destinations, the report shows northern cities including Chicago (2.7 percent), Seattle (4 percent), Boston (9.6 percent) and even smaller markets like Providence, RI (12.1 percent) enjoyed significant YOY growth in summer travel spending from 2016 to 2017.

First Data’s SpendTrend Report—a macro-economic indicator based on aggregate same store sales activity across the 1.3 million merchant locations First Data processes transactions for in the U.S.—revealed the following travel and leisure spending trends across the U.S. for the 2017 summer travel season:

While not internationally renowned as a vacation destination, Providence, RI, enjoyed the highest YOY increase in summer travel spending of any U.S. city at 12.1 percent. Providence was also the fastest growing market for international visitors, with 15 percent YOY growth in international spending from 2016 to 2017. The city was also a favorite summer travel destination among foodies, with a nation-high 20.6 percent YOY increase in restaurant spending in 2017 (compared to a 5.5 percent increase nationally).

Myrtle Beach was the number one fastest growing market for hotel spending during the summer months, with a 14.2 percent YOY increase in 2017, while Seattle boasted the most expensive summer hotel visits with an average ticket price of $405 per hotel purchase.

Milwaukee saw the highest increase in the travel spending category in 2017 at 8.4 percent.

Nationwide, restaurants enjoyed the highest YOY growth across all summer travel and leisure spending categories at 5.5 percent.

The full report is available here

Gen Z’s Love to Travel

According to a new study by UNiDAYS and Ad Age Studio 30, 99 percent of what Gen Z ers like to travel and they have the interest, independence and means to do it – independently. These are among the many findings in the new study, which sets out to quantify Gen Z’s preferences for travel, dispel myths, and outline what marketers can do to attract this always-on-the-go, digital-native generation.

Called “Meet Gen Z: The Traveling Generation,” the report is based on qualitative research generated by a survey of 11,661 college students between the ages of 17 and 23 in the U.S., U.K., Australia and New Zealand and on the UNiDAYS network, the world’s leading Student Affinity Network. The full report can be accessed at http://www.adage.com/genzinsights.

Gen Z commands up to $143 billion in spending power in the U.S. alone. The survey identified how the young adults spend discretionary funds on travel, including: how often and how far they travel, how much they spend, where they go, where they stay, what they do, and what incentives attract them to a destination. Key findings include:

Gen Z has means. A majority (62 percent) say they work and save to finance travel, and 69 percent describe their travel style as affordable with an occasional splurge. U.S. students spend between $250 and $750 per trip, on average, and only 18 percent of all surveyed rely on parents to pay for trips.

Unlike their Millennial counterparts, Gen Zers actually prefer hotels over Airbnb and vacation rentals.

Spring break-style, all-night parties are a thing of the past. In fact, partying came in at a distant sixth place in a list of things Gen Zers like to do when traveling. Instead, the No. 1 activity on a trip is eating out.

A large portion of Gen Zers are college students, and value is important. When it comes to booking their flights, 76 percent said price was the key factor in their decision-making. Incentives and special offers are also attractive – 59 percent said they would take brands up on offers.

About the findings, Stacey Paul, Head of Travel Innovation at UNiDAYS said: “It’s clear that Gen Z seeks out new experiences and has the spending power to check things off their bucket lists. Travel brands will attract this influential generation if they abandon the one-size-fits-all marketing mentality and develop programs tailored to Gen Z with compelling offers aligned to their travel preferences. Gen Zers are at a time in their lives when they are just starting to make decisions about how and where they spend their money — and travel is quite clearly a category where this matters most. Brands that attract them now have a chance to create brand affinities that will last a lifetime.”

Meet Gen Z: the Traveling Generation is part of a year-long partnership between UNiDAYS and Ad Age Studio 30 that includes four global research studies exploring Gen Z attitudes among college students, ages 17 to 23 in the U.S., the U.K., Australia and New Zealand. Survey topics and questions are designed to highlight what’s newsworthy and trending, as well as showcase topics highly relevant to Gen Z and brands looking to attract them. For more insights and tips on how to engage Gen Z and build loyalty for a lifetime, visit GenZInsights.com, driven by UNiDAYS.

Millennial Wedding Trends

Millennials have taken weddings to new heights. They are spending more, receiving less, dressing differently, eating better, coordinating more efficiently and partying much harder.

“Over the past few years, we have seen an average increase of $10,000 for millennial weddings. Our clients are ditching churches and building their own venues in industrial settings. They are giving back to the community asking for donations to their favorite charities rather than hosting registries,” said Jenny Chang, Founder of ROCKNEVENTS.

Attire

The style of wedding dresses is still very individual. Brides choose what looks good to them and their setting, and really varies from wedding to wedding. In regard to groomsmen and bridesmaids, we observed a transition from short to long sundresses for women and a strong consistency with Tom Ford suits for men.

Cuisine

Food adventures have been on the rise along with: oyster trucking, raw coconuts and custom catering from the couples favorite restaurant. Celebrity chefs, build-your-own desert stations and luxury culinary experiences is drawing the attention of millennial foodies.

Entertainment

Take the Bridal Chorus to a whole new level with electric violinists, drummers and pianists that can play multiple instruments at once using any limb available. Millennial wedding DJs are now pressured to mix music while playing a foot pedalled instrument all while engaging the crowd.

Invitations: One of the most exciting parts of a wedding is bringing your family and friends together. As a result, there is usually an age gap that requires invitations to be tailored to both. Millennials are leaning toward paperless, online website invitations rather than traditional direct mail. Website invitations are ideal for deciding which events to attend, what individual preferences are and getting your messages/updates out as efficiently as possible. For more traditional guests, sticking to the envelope invitation is your best bet.

According to a Recent Study/Survey … Mid-July 2018 Edition posted first on happyhourspecialsyum.blogspot.com

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