#and then people would see those polls and be like ‘so you would trade x for byler?’

[pinkeoni]

1 member of each group (the kids, the teens, the adults) has to bite the dust in s5, no way around it. who are you choosing?

🙅🏼‍♀️I’m not falling for your tricks anon🙅🏼‍♀️

[messrmoonyy]

I just read your nsfw Headcannons for Tess and all I have to say is. Give. Me. The. Alley. Thing. Now. And no one gets hurt

The art of jealousy

Tess Servopoulos x Fem!reader

A/N- this request has been sat in my inbox since I first posted those Headcannons. Which was. A long time ago. I’m sorry. So here it is finally. Also the Headcannons being referred too are right here for anyone that wants to read them. Tess POV cause I really am loving giving a look into her head. I only proofread this once cause Tuesdays are becoming ever so slightly stressful for me so I just wasn’t vibing. So. Anyways. Enjoy.

Warnings- Tess lmao. Possessiveness, jealousy, she’s a lil rough at times but reader likes that, smut: fingering ( reader receiving), sex in a public place, choking, degradation

Word count- 3.8K

Masterlist

Reblogs and comments are always appreciated <3

If Tess was one thing, it was being possessive of shit that was hers. Maybe that was just a side affect- as it were- of the post outbreak world. No one had much that they could truly call theirs anymore. Tess had actually always found it quite interesting how attached people could be to their things. She’d never been the material type. Even pre outbreak she’d never been one for expensive jewellery, flashy cars or designer clothes. And she’d never really understood people’s obsession with it.

Material items took on new forms now. People these days valued things like boots. Or ration cards. Family photos they’d managed to hold onto for all this time. At least they were more practical now she guessed. But still, she wasn’t really one to be overly attached to things.

People too fell under that bracket. She straight up refused to let herself get attached to anyone once the outbreak hit. After losing her entire family within the first week of the outbreak she’d vowed to never let herself get close to anyone again.

And then you’d come along.

She hadn’t meant to fall in love with you. Fuck she’d actually ignored you for several months when she realised she might actually be feeling something for you. But you were persistent. And beautiful. And it was unbelievably irritating but you had a knack at kicking down the walls she’d built up over the years. Brick. By brick. And she had learnt that maybe she did have a possessive streak in her after all.

Because there was truly nothing she despised more than watching someone else flirting with you. And it happened a lot which wasn’t at all surprising. The majority of people she surrounded herself with knew not to mess around when it came to you. They knew that you were off limits. But occasionally someone new would poll their way into the underground scene of Boston, some attempt to establish themselves on the black market, and thoroughly piss her off.

Jealousy crept up on her more frequently than not, she couldn’t help it. She just didn’t like it. Seeing you around someone else.

She knew you weren’t about to run off with some random fuck who thought he could win you round with some ration cards. She had you wrapped tightly around her little finger, just as you had her. But still. It pissed her off.

“ are you hoping if you stare at the back of his head long enough he’ll just drop down dead? “ Joel’s southern drawl hit her ears and she flashed him an irritated look, before looking back over at you. You’d been striking up a deal with someone for over 10 minutes, some new fucker clearly bartering you down for the cost of some pills. But he was being too… touchy.

You were no stranger to flirting your way through deals and Tess had always been surprised at just how much you could raise the prices in trades just by simply… existing. Being a woman in the current climate had never been particularly great. And learning to use what you had to for your own advantages was vital.

‘ men think they’re getting something and they’ll be putty in your hands ‘ that’s what you had said once. And she wasn’t exactly against it, hell she was guilty of doing it herself. But it didn’t change how infuriating it was.

“ you know she won’t do shit. You got that girl eating out of the god damn palm of your hand “ Joel said with a laugh, chewing at a chunk of his rationed beef jerky and eyeing the hand of cards he was holding. Though Tess had long since lost interest in the game they were playing “ ask her to beg at your fuckin feet and she’d do it. Then again, you’d probably do it for her too “ A small smirk pulled at her lips with that. She knew it was true, of course. She trusted you whole heartedly, knowing you had zero interest in anyone else. Especially men. And no one on the entire planet could turn her head.

You were just as infatuated with her as she was with you. It was a mutual obsession that was no where close to burning out.

“ I know “

“ then drop the miserable look on your damn face and play your turn “ she rolled her eyes and took her eyes off of you for a few moments, looking back down at the cards in front of her. She played a card without even really looking at it, her eyes soon trailing back over to you again “ you are making this too damn easy for me “

She didn’t grant him with a response, eyes narrowing as she watched you exchange a half bag of pills for a wad of cards. Clearly more than you’d usually have sold them for, but her small proud smile didn’t last long.

The man stepped closer to you, head bowed as he said something in your ear. You gave a clearly over exaggerated laugh, arm on his shoulder. And she was certain she saw your eyes flick in her direction.

She huffed a laugh, sitting back in her chair and shaking her head in mild disbelief

“ the little shit “ Joel’s eyes drifted over to you too, his brow furrowed as they both watched you flirt with the man.

“ Jesus Christ “ Joel muttered, clearly thinking the same thing Tess was. You were doing it on purpose. Pushing her buttons “ don’t rise to it. It’s what she wants “

“ I know what she fuckin wants “ she narrowed her eyes, watching you across the courtyard as she attempted to continue the game with Joel.

“ hey Tess. How you doin? I was wondering if you had an- “ the sound of one of her customers filled her ears as she kept her eyes trained on you.

“ not now “ she said with a wave of her hand, not even looking up to see who was stood there

“ but- “

“ not. Now “

“ okay okay. That’s cool. Yeah. I’ll see you tomorrow? Cool cool “ Joel sighed as the man shuffled off sheepishly

“ you’re forfeiting sales now? Will you just go talk to her “ she was tapping her fingers against the table impatiently now. Jealousy and anger swimming in her veins in a dangerous cocktail.

You were always the same. A fucking brat. Pissing her off to get your own way. And she knew exactly what you were trying to get out of her. Piss her off, wind her up, drive her insane so that the second you both got home she’d pin you down against the closest surface and remind you exactly who was in charge for as long as it took for the message to sink in.

But she was in no mood to wait until you got home. If you needed a little reminder of just who wore the trousers in your relationship, she’d remind you. And she’d remind you sooner rather than later.

One more gentle touch of your hand to the man’s chest followed by a glance in her direction was the last nail in the coffin. And she was tossing her cards down on the table.

“ Tess- “ she was up and out of her metal chair before he could finish his sentence, crossing the courtyard in purposeful strides, someone hopping out of her path as she went.

“ are you fuckin done? “ she asked in a low voice as she reached you, throwing a glare towards the man seemed confused at her sudden appearance

“ oh hi Tess “ you said innocently “ everything okay? “ the man took a step back, eyes widening as he looked between the two of you

“ you’re?- I didn’t know- “ she quite enjoyed watching people crumble under the weight of her reputation. Especially men.

“ if you have any idea what’s good for you, you’ll take your pills. And fuck off” she turned to you then “ and you. Come with me “ she walked off before waiting for a response from either of you, making a beeline for the back alley leading out of the courtyard. No one would bother her down there, the only entrance that lead from that way was the one from anyone coming from outside the wall. Which wasn’t very often.

She didn’t have to look behind her to know you’d be following. Even when you were in the mood to piss her off you were still desperate to please.

So she waited a few moments and then you appeared, strolling into the alley like you didn’t have a single care in the world. And she was reaching the limits of her patience.

She grabbed you by the wrist and pushed you back against the wall, hiding effectively behind a stack of wooden crates.

“ you okay Tess? You seem a little tense today “ god you were infuriating. She laughed and shook her head, trapping you against the wall with a hand resting beside your head.

“ the fuck was that back there? Huh? “ confusion twisted into your features, but the smirk tugging at your lips gave it away that you weren’t even remotely confused by her question. You knew exactly what you’d done “ you think it’s funny? “

“ I don’t know what you’re talking about”

“ oh you don’t? “

“ I was just making a trade. You’re a little scary you know, the new ones always prefer to come to me. You should smile a little more “ you reached up and poked at her face lightly “ I think you scared my customer away “

“ good. He needs to keep his fuckin hands to himself “

“ shame. He was quite nice “ the little monster that lived in her chest was trying to claw its way out, a pointless feeling of jealousy threatening to overwhelm her. It truly was pointless. She knew you were toying with her. You were playing her like a violin, messing with her to get what you wanted.

“ wanna go back out to him? Be my fuckin guest “ she knew you wouldn’t. Knew she had you exactly where you wanted to be. Though a small part of her did wonder if you would. Just to piss her off a little more.

“ you should know by now I’m not into the nice type “ she exhaled shortly through her nose and gave a small nod. She knew. Tess was not one for softness and romance. Yeah, from time to time it would slip out. But that’s not what you wanted from her. It’s why you worked together so well.

Her fingers brushed over the exposed skin of your neck, almost annoyed at the lack of purple and red marks she found. Maybe that was why the fucker back there had been so willing and accepting to your loaded advances. How could she have been so careless. To let her possessive marks vanish. Her clear silent brand that you were spoken for.

“ you don’t think I’m nice? “

“ there’s different meanings to different people “ she couldn’t help herself and dropped her head down to your neck, the blank expanse of your skin frustrating her. You tilted your head to give her access to more of you, attacking the blank canvas of flesh with her teeth “ see. Nice girls don’t behave like this. You taught me that “ she laughed against your skin, biting a little harder than she really needed to. Just to hear the delicious sound it would draw from you.

She knew she wasn’t nice. Not in the conventional sense. But you didn’t want nice. You didn’t want a cosy and warm relationship, soft forehead kisses and vanilla sex, cruising along in life and abiding by the rules.

You wanted her. You wanted the way she was rough, she was all teeth and bruises and hair pulls. She threw you around and left you wrecked for anyone else but her. And she knew that was how you were. She knew that was what you wanted. What you needed. Needing some kind of reminder that you were real, that the fucked up mess of the world around you wasnt a nightmare. You needed her to bring you back to life. And she was more than happy to oblige.

“ so what? You gonna take me home? “ she didn’t quite know when exactly she had decided she wasn’t going to take you home. The idea had arisen quite suddenly and she’d decided to act on it just as fast, quite certain she didn’t actually have it in her to take you all the way home. Not when she was so wound up.

That paired with the smugness still interlacing between the syllables of your words… she had a point to prove.

“ no “ you gave her a confused look and now it was her turn to smirk “ you act like that and think you get to choose if we go home or not? Gotta be fuckin kiddin me baby “ she leant in close to your face, her hand moving up and applying pressure to your throat. She felt your breath stutter, your fingers wrapping around her wrist. Not so cocky anymore.

“ Tess someone might- “

“ what? You were okay with behaving like some common fuckin whore out there in front of everyone, but not here for me? Breaking my fuckin heart “ she liked the way you seemed to lose all of your cockiness in an instant. She practically watched it drain from your features.

“ I wasn’t doing shit I was working “ Tess quirked a brow and smiled, fingers moving to unbutton your jeans. The second her fingers slipped into your underwear and she felt how wet you were, her smile grew. She wondered if you knew how much she truly loved how easy it was to make you wet. How much it turned her on just to have you so willingly at her mercy, how much you so clearly wanted to be used by her even if you attempted to deny it.

“ I’m not stupid. I know what you were doing. You think I didn’t know this is what you wanted? “ a soft moan slipped past your lips as she dragged your arousal up and slowly circled your clit “ you wet for me or that fucker back there? Huh? “

“ what do you fuckin think? “ Tess raised her eyebrows and shook her head, not the biggest fan of your tone of voice. Your breath hitched as she set herself into a steady rhythm, losing your cool and cocky demeanour as she worked you into a mess. It never took her long. She could read you like a book and knew how and where to touch you to have you melting in minutes.

“ the attitude on you sweetheart “ she increased the speed of her fingers, applied more pressure to your neck. She watched the way your eyes fluttered closed, loving the way the light headed bliss washed over you “ that’s it baby, can’t talk back now can you “

Your eyes fell onto hers as she slipped two fingers into you, not bothering to ease you into it with one. You were wet enough for it, she knew.

“ fuck- “

“ you think you’re so powerful don’t you? Thinking you can fuck around like that? Look at you now “ she kept her voice low, in that tone that she knew you loved. That made your velvety walls flutter against the fingers she was thrusting in and out of you roughly “ do you think they all know back there? That you’re back here with me getting fucked like a little slut? Do you? “

You whimpered out an answer your nails digging painfully into the skin of her wrist

“ I’m sorry “ your whimpers and whines were cute but she found it mildly funny that you thought they would make her go easy on you. She was only getting started.

“ not good enough “ her thumb applied pressure to your clit and you moaned loudly at the feeling “ acting like you’re so big. So bad. But who’s the one getting fucked in an alley? What do you think they’d say if they saw you now? Saw you a pathetic mess having your cunt stretched out by my fingers? Hmm? “

“ I- I said I’m sorry. I’m- fuck “

“ you should be. I look after you, I take care of you. And yet you behave like that? Such a spoiled little brat. You want more? I bet you want more don’t you “ your moans were increasing in pitch and she was a little cautious of being caught, but she was far too preoccupied by you to care completely. By the own arousal pooling in her belly, she didn’t need to be touched to get off. Watching you fall apart at her hands was enough

“ yes. Yes. More “ you begged. She loved hearing you beg.

“ greedy girl “ she glanced down at her hand that was hidden in your jeans and smiled, adjusting the slightly awkward angle and carefully adding a third finger to the mix. You winced at the new stretch and she gave you a moment before continuing her movements.

“ fuck Tess “ the sounds falling from your mouth mixed with the sopping sound of your cunt stretching around her fingers was almost too distracting, fighting the urge to stop and take you home so she could fuck you properly.

You were getting louder, even when she stifled your sounds for a moment with a more firm grip on your throat. When she could feel your pulse hammering beneath her finger tips.

“ nice and quiet. Or do you want them all to hear you? Is that what you want? “ it’s what she wanted. Deep down. A part of her desperately wanted people to hear, to remind everyone and anyone that thought they had a chance with you to back off. But a louder part of her was yelling at her, that she didn’t want anyone finding you both there. So you’d have to quiet down “ quiet “ she warned.

She sighed in mild annoyance when you didn’t listen.

“ sorry I- I can’t- “ so she clamped her hand down over your mouth and shook her head in disappointment. Though internally she was unbelievably fucking smug, very much getting off on the fact that you couldn’t control yourself. Because of her. You were a whimpering, shuddering wreck because of her.

She wondered if she should have planned this a little more thoroughly before executing it. If she could’ve roped Joel into dragging the man you had been flirting with down that alley too. Forced him to watch. Get a couple of hits in to really cement the fact. That you were hers. No one else’s. You weren’t to be touched. Or looked at. Or even thought about but anyone but her.

In an ideal world where she didn’t act on impulse and actually planned that exact moment, that’s what would have happened. Maybe she’d have even taken you some place more secluded. Where she didn’t have to force you to be quiet, where she could let you be loud. Let that bastards ears be filled with you moaning her name. The wet sounds of your cunt soaking her fingers.

He’d never get to have you like that. He’d never get to feel the way you clenched on her fingers, the way your inner walls were so soft. No one would. Only her.

But maybe that was for another time. In that moment she was quite pleased with herself, pleased with the way she had you whimpering into her one hand and dripping all over the other.

She wished you could see how pathetic you looked there for her, squirming in her hold, eyes rolling to the back of your head as she pushed you closer the edge. Her hand across your mouth, neck covered in fresh hickeys, your arms grazing against the brick wall.

“ I don’t want you acting like that anymore. You understand me? “ she curled her fingers as she said it, pressing at the spot she knew sent you spiralling. That she knew would render you unable to respond, that gave you that wonderful blank look in your eyes when all you could think about was her. Exactly as she wanted you. You nodded your head, eyes falling closed “ I can’t have you showing me up like that again“

She couldn’t. She didn’t need people seeing you treat her like a pushover, so easily able to walk all over her. She was in charge. She had the control. You were hers

“ who do you belong to? “ she asked you, moving her hand down from your mouth and gripping at your chin “ who? “

“ you “ you said breathlessly, your chest heaving and grip on her wrist tightening. She knew you well enough to know when you were almost there, recognised the sounds. The look in your eyes. The way you tightened around her fingers.

“ say it again”

“ fuck- “ she was a little cautious of how loud you were being again but she wanted to hear you say it, needed you to say her name and feed the jealous creature sitting in her chest.

“ say it or I swear I will leave you here like this “ she threatened “ say my name baby “

“ Tess “ you gasped, voice high and breathy “ Tess. You I belong to you please- “ she smiled and gave a small nod.

“ that’s my girl “ she moved her hand back over your mouth as you came, whining loudly even muffled by her fingers “ you fuckin remember that yeah? You’re mine “ she said against your ear as she worked you through it, coming over her fingers “ all mine “ she kept going, only withdrawing her fingers when you slumped against her. Legs shaking and chest heaving as you caught your breath.

She dropped her hand from your mouth, eyes scanning your face and an overwhelming smugness settling over her at your fucked out appearance.

“ did I make myself clear? “ she asked quietly, thumb brushing over your lips.

“ crystal “ she pressed a soft kiss to the corner of your mouth before letting you go and taking a step back, running a hand through her hair as she looked at her handiwork. It was clear as day what had just happened and she took great pride in the fact that you would walk back into that courtyard, and everyone would know. Bruises were blooming on your throat, your cheeks were flushed, lips swollen from your teeth sinking into them, hair dishevelled.

“ I’ll let you get back to work then shall I? “ she said with a smile as if it were the most normal thing.

“ you fuckin kidding me? “ she shrugged and leant forward to press a kiss to your cheek “ just keep your hands to yourself this time “ then she stepped back and made her way back to Joel, almost sauntering her way back to the table where he was still sat.

The cat who had gotten the cream.

“ you are fuckin unbelievable “ he muttered with a shake of his head as she sat back in her chair, arms folded over her chest and eyes locked on the entrance to the alleyway waiting for you to appear.

“ deal me some new cards Texas “ he shook his head with a sigh but gathered up the cards again as you re appeared. You had tried to make yourself look more presentable by the looks of things, but even if people could excuse the flushed look of your cheeks or the glazed look in your eyes. There was no escaping the freshly bloomed artwork she’d left on your neck.

She’d like to see anyone try it on with you now.

[sstvar]

!Art Requests/Art Trades Are CLOSED!

!!NOTE: i close requests when i hit 10 just to prevent ‘em from piling up too much. what my ask box says will indicate when requests are closed and open!!

edit: hit just over 10 so i’m gonna get those (or at least half of those) done before i open requests up again :)

everyone voted for yes on the poll :)

anyone can send a request! it can be anything from your oc to ship art to your favourite character from a franchise….the list goes on :)

i would rather do art trades with people i’m familiar with already but i’m always open to making new friends here ;) if you’re curious/interested just send me a dm

now i’m open to a lot of things, but there are a few boundaries:

WILL DO!

original characters

canon ships

canon/oc or self insert ships (as long as they’re legal)

canon characters

furry

techno stuff

monsters (includes Monster x Human stuff-)

slightly suggestive stuff

NO.

explicit NSFW

heavy gore (blood/injuries are ok)

hate art

comics/full storyboards (just don’t have the time sorryyy)

any request depicting discrimination of any kind

not related to the art itself but please don’t try and pressure me into getting your request done, i will get to it

when you send me a request, please try to be as specific as possible! feel free to send me references of the character you want drawn and a pose if you’d like! you can either send me a request in an ask or dm it to me privately if that makes you more comfortable :)

!!REBLOGS ON THIS POST AND YOUR REQUEST (and any of my art really) ARE HIGHLY APPRECIATED AND ENCOURAGED!!

with that have fun and enjoy! i look forward to seeing what you guys have for me >:)

[in-darkness]

OOC - Session Zero?

I'm in the middle of designing a system which can be enjoyably played via the medium of "eight choices in a poll, with available durations of either one day or one week." It... actually isn't as hard as it seems, interestingly enough. But I am, regardless, running into one key quandary I will need an outside answer for - how much of a say would you all like to have in the world? This is the complete start from scratch, and normally in a tabletop setting that means I meet with the players and ask them what they're interested in playing. Hack & slash? Political intrigue? High magic or low? Does gunpowder exist?

At the same time, however, I could easily see how that might drag things out beyond what people are interested in. This is a simple, low-intensity style of gameplay - and normally those sorts of systems have a very bare-bones attention to starting a campaign. Some of them are literally "you are X, in Y, seeking to do Z - now go."

So the way I see it, there are three options... and since there are three options, I figure I should make a poll and ask all of you.

The first option is to run a True Session Zero, TTRPG style. This will be more involved, with several OOC polls posted, to zero in on the sort of world and plot the collective people interested in this would be most happy playing within. It will, as a result, take more time to get into the actual matter of playing the game. But it means getting a world built to meet the overall interests of the majority of you.

The second option is the one most people are the most experienced in - what I'd call a Character Sheet model. I design the world myself, without your input, but post a series of OOC polls to allow those interested to design the Player Character. You'd be voting on things like gender identity, basic appearance (skin color, hair color, eye color, and build basically), stats, skills, and a starting set of equipment. This is the middle-of-the-road option as far as customization goes - you don't get a say in the world around the PC, but you get to define who the PC is.

The last option is what I'd dub the Press Start to Play option - because it basically borrows from video games. I make the world AND a premade Player Character, then drop everybody straight into the game. It gets you playing the fastest, but gives you the least freedom to define who you were before the start of the game. I will still do what I can to give you some flexibility to define your backstory through poll options, Mass Effect style, as this is a role-playing game. But you'll be far more limited. It's the trade-off for jumping directly into play.

[bonbonthedragon]

Meeting You Changed Me (18)

Dad!bakugou x fem!reader

A series

Summary: When Bakugou leaves an ugly divorce, leaving him as a single dad he never can imagine himself finding love again, not when he was never actually in love. People manipulate and lie and he can’t trust anyone but those close to him and now protect what he has left. But maybe...just maybe he can give her a chance.

Warnings: cursing, angst, mentions of trade, sensitive subjects

Note: I’m dead. It’s short but it’s a post and that’s all I’m happy about cause I can nap dis weekend. Anyway, enjoy! I honestly didn’t read this over bc I’m tired and want nap, but I had so much fun writing this part for some fucked up reason…oop

Series Masterlist

-

Bakugou shoved the key into the lock, shoving the door open and stomping in. The blond headed straight to his office, opening his drawers to take out his checkbook. Sure, he could have just showed up and transferred it digitally, but doing this old fashioned would give him more time for his plan and no way for them to have direct access to his account…hopefully.

“Kac-“

“Don’t say a damn word” Bakugou hissed, sending another explosion as he flew through the air “keep your damn voice down and pretend your talkin to pink cheeks or something, there are eyes everywhere your standing” he heard deku grunt then excuse himself from the crowd, some shuffling then a door being shut.

“What did you want to talk about Uraraka-San?” He chirped

Bakugou hummed in appreciation “go on with the plan, but you need to act like your calling it off to the others. Asher called with a deal and I’m not a fucking idiot to meet him without back up. So here’s the plan…”

His phone pinged and he looked to see the unknown number again

45 minutes hero

He clenched his fist, shoving the pocket book in his pocket and growling. He shot deku a text and went to his closet, taking out the new weapon Hatsume had made him. They created just as much destruction as his gauntlets but were smaller. They strapped to his wrist like brackets and could get through metal detectors with no problem. He’d change clothes and put them on so Asher didn’t think he was there for harm…even though he was. Taking off his hero suit, bakugou put on some sweat pants and a shirt, making sure he had everything and went out the door. He used an app on his phone that his agency uses to track calls and followed the signal to where the hideout was. It was difficult seeing as he was the No. 2 hero and was currently high in the fam polls due to a new magazine letting out.

(Y/n) and him were plastered all over social media, luckily his body was covering most of her own and her hand over her face when the pictures were taken.He was able to track down the idiots who were able to get full pictures of her and he would be famed if he added more drama to her already shitty life. That was his first goal when he gets her out of there, the first thing he is going to do is ask her what she wants, what she needs. God damn it if it was a fruit basket or even the most expensive thing on the planet he was going to give it to her. If it meant putting a smile on her face, even if she told him what she wanted was him to leave, to never see him again. Since last night the thought had been swirling in his head and he couldn’t help but blame himself for her being taken.

One block, he could see the door to the building ahead. It was a run down Chinese restaurant, it didn’t even look to be in business before but it said this is where it was. Suddenly an arm was slung around him and he whipped his head around. Piercing blue eyes stared back into his own. Asher gave the blond a smile, flicking the cigarette in his other hand and setting it in the corner of his mouth, hanging Leon on his lips.

“I never thought you’d actually do it.” He sighed, his hand gripping bakugou’s collar as bystanders passed and waved at them, to which the brunette waved happily back. It was then the hero felt something pressed cold against his neck. He must have had a blade slipped in the cuff of his suit. It hit just enough to sting, though he wasn’t bleeding. Ashers pace quickened and bakugou obliged, going into the restaurant and letting the door shut behind. A tall man stood before them, stepping aside to push a button on the wall and doors opened to an elevator. “Don’t bother with back up, your signal won’t work down here. Everything will go smoothly and the thought of it won’t even be needed if you just stay in line.” He pressed, taking his hand back now they were in a confide space. Bakugou felt his lungs fill with air again, the fear still creeping from behind as the elevator fell to the bunker. Being a top her didn’t mean he was invincible, as much as he hated to admit it, it was even harder to even act that way when he knew so many lives were at Rick. All he could do now was do what the Mobster says until deku arrives and he gets the moment to see (y/n).

The doors opened and it was nothing what bakugou expected. The hallway presented to him was rather nice, lined with white doors and marble flooring. It smelled of flowers and everything was nice and neat, he actually felt out of place, even his apartment wasn’t this nice. A hand was placed on his back as he was led by the villain again.

“Nice huh? Remolded it a couple years ago, not my style but it’s fancy” he shrugged, making it to the end of the hall and opening another door.

It was then the smell of cannabis hit him, it was light but definitely there and completely different from the tobacco stench this guy smelled of. A woman in red stood in the corner on the room, repelling herself form the wall and walking toward them. Her hips swayed seductively and when she was close enough her breath was hitting his neck. Bakugou didn’t even shiver, he didn’t find her attractive in the slightest even though she was clearly trying. The woman’s lashes fluttered and she reeked of perfume and product. He never understood how things like this were supposed to be enticing until he understood romantic love. Like (y/n), before then he rolled his eyes at woman coming after him, not interested in the slighted, not even Kyoko made the mark. It’s why he didn’t didn’t give one shit about that kind of love when brought up. But then his friends dragged him to a coffee shop and his toddler became interested in the owner. It wasn’t then that he understood why it was so beautiful, how a person could be so much more to him than just family relations.

He shook his head from his thoughts when a kiss was placed to his neck and he flinched back, growling. Asher rose a brow at him, smirk dancing on his lips as he shrugged, shooing the woman away with a smack to her ass. It wasn’t then until she was walking away that he could see the slimmer collar around her neck that was hidden in her blue curls, and the scars on her exposed skin. She was a victim.

“Relax Bakugou,” he began, pushing his back again as a double door opened to them. The hero’s eyes widened when it revealed a green poker room, swarms of men laughing, smoking, drinking and playing games. With them were double the count of woman, all in skimpy outfits and underwear. Their eyes hung lien and they looked dead. “Enjoy a beer, gamble, play pool. There’s plenty of eye candy and pussy to go around. Pick which ever, there’s rooms if you want one…or two” he winked “My treat.” Bakugou looked at him with wide eyes, sending a glare, “oh don’t look at me like that, big guy. This is just a thank you for your cooperation. Oh, and don’t worry, no one here gives a shit your a hero. We have variety even in parts of town like this.” He whispered, winking at him again before walking off. Me too in suits as well began to follow his as he sat at the bar, the bartender handing him a dry martini. The men stood at his side, Ashers\ beginning to eye bakugou and wave a hand for him to get moving.

He did, taking a shaky step and looking around. As he went, man tugged girls into their laps, cursed them out for doing something they didn’t like or just touch them. He winced, knowing he was outnumbered and couldn’t do anything right now. Sorry, but they would just have to wait a little longer. He felt the villains eyes burn into him, moving over to the second bar and taking a shot, not completely for show. God he hated drinking but the burn of the liquor felt amazing against his throat. He downed another, feeling himself loosen up and roll his shoulders. If he played his cards right he could get this going a bit quicker. He shifted his gaze to Asher, who was chatting to one of the men, and he spotted a woman in white. She only wore a tank top and shorts, and though her eyes were sunken in and tired, she met his gaze and played along too, seeming like she knew how to like the back of her hand.

Bakugou went to her closely, eyes going from her to the Mobster, biting his lip and placing a hand on her lower back. He whispered something in her ear, hearing her giggle and nod. He then saw another woman in pink, taking her too but by the wrist. She winced and his chest fell, not letting go though and tugging her to his side. She fell into step, the woman in white ahead of him as she led them to a room. Eyes from around the room followed until they shut the door behind them and locking it. The two began to crowd bakugou, the man quickly stepping aside and putting his hands up. He bowed and apologized for his behavior. They froze, clearly confused. He looked back up.

“I’m going to get you out of here.” He said bluntly, refusing to look at them to be respectful. He looked around, taking the bed sheet from the king cal in the room and tearing it in half as they watched.

“W-what” the woman in pink stuttered “y-you can’t-“

“How?” The one in white asked, taking the sheet he handed them as they wrapped themselves

“With my help!” Mirio appeared, smiling bright

Bakugou sighed “this idiot” he said. Mirio had gotten his quirk back just some years ago after a lot of training Eri. He learned that he could pass others through with him but it took a lot out of him, luckily he was back in business and Hatsumis tech could send signals even in the shittiest places.

Mirio smiled and entered the room fully, extending his hand out “we’ll have to hurry before I can’t anymore” he warned

Bakugou grunted, letting the two girls take his hand and bakugou joined in. Mirio fazed though the building and first sent bakugou into a random hallway in the bunker before returning to land with the victims.

Bakugou looked around to find where he was dropped, continuing down the halls. As he walked he almost threw up, some rooms stenched of copper and stained with blood, some drugs and others filled with the forced sounds of moaning and grunts. God he knew this stuff excised but fuck, seeing a place like this with his own eyes made him want to turn around and never come back. It sickened him to know this is how people live, drug addicts, dealers, murders, sex slaves. God. He didn’t realize how good he truly had it.

He spotted a certain door different from the others, quiet and still. It was lonely and had a hall way to itself. Just before he took another step, a hand found his shoulder. Fuck.

“Done already? I forgot you work fast.” Asher tched, retreating his hand as bakugou turned “I guess we should start business buddy!” Two men took up bakugous sides as Asher walked in front of him, walking to the door. He unlocked it and let them in. It was an office, covered in animal fur and red walls. It was western themed, a portrait of the villain staring back at him with icy eyes. Bakugou was picked up from under his arms and sent to a leather chair, Asher joining on the other side of the large wooden desk. The men let go of bakugou and went to stand by Asher, staring at the hero while the brunette sorted though some paper work, finishing and sending a wicked smirk at bakugou.

“Oh I’m going to miss her” he tutted, shaking his head “we had so many fawn memories. That’s alright though, I made up for lost time so I’m not as upset about this.”

It took all of bakugou’s strength to not just fuck the guy over and blow up his head. He didn’t even want to think what that meant, her bruises flashing before his mind. Asher set down his tablet, tuning it on and turning it to bakugou. He shook his head, taking out his check book, hand slipping back his phone. The villain rose a brow and sighed, scooting the IPad to the side and taking the check. It was already filled on bakugous side, so to make it official he just needed a signature since it was such a big amount.

“Just like that?” Bakugou asked

Asher looked up, smirking “just like that,” he nodded to a large door across the room “she’s in there”

Bakugou stood “cool, that check doesn’t work anyway.”

Asher froze, looking up and tilting his head “what?”

He shrugged “it’s out of date. Can’t use it. Not even tied to my current account, I’ve switch since then, tax stuff.” And he went toward the door.

Ashers chair screeched back and the clicks of guns echoed. Bakugou didn’t even need to turn to smirk before the wall behind Asher blew open and shouting began.

“Rays Asher, You are under arrest!” Deku yelled, swooping in and knocking the hero out.

Bakugou didn’t bother looking back to know his plan worked, maybe too smoothly but he didn’t care. He bursted open the door, only to freeze.

(Y/n) hung naked in red ropes from the ceiling, all tied exquisitely in knots and kneading into her skin. She was painted head to toe in purple and black, blood dripping and staining the marble below her as she hung still, barely making a breath. Bakugou cried out.

-

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[somethingusefulfromflorida]

Zine content

My original plan was for my zine to be a spiritual successor to Weekly World News, a parody tabloid that exclusively ran those nonsense stories you'd see in X-Files and Men in Black, "Local Woman in Menage-a-Trois With Bigfoot," "Aliens Stole my Carburetor," "Elvis Lives, Makes a Living Impersonating Himself in Vegas," that sort of thing, straight up comedy, but as the project evolved I decided I wanted it to be more than just sensationalist headlines. I want it to invoke the feeling I got from reading magazines in the early 2000s, before the medium evaporated. I grew up on Nick Mag and Mad Kids, my sisters had celebrity gossip teen zines, so I want my zine to appeal to young millennials and old zoomers who grew up right at the same time as we did, right when our magazines of choice all closed up shop, 2005 to 2012ish, around that time. I don't want it to be a zine for kids, I want it to feel as though those old magazines grew up with their audiences; what if Nick Mag were still around today but aimed at 20-somethings?

I want my zine to be somewhere between the puerile Mad Kids and the monotonous Mad (Mad is like SNL, I'm sure it used to be good and clever, but now it's a hollow facsimile of itself trying desperately to stay relevant while coasting off it's former glory; it used to be a cultural tentpole everybody knew and consumed, but now it's a sideshow you only hear about when people complain because it's stale and obvious. It expects applause when it reaches for the low hanging fruit). My point is, I want the content of my zine to be comedic without being childish, and I want it to have a backbone of sincerity without being boring. Because that's my biggest problem, magazines for adults are boring! Runner's World? Men's Health? Guns and Motorcycles? Homes and Gardens? Nat Geo Traveler: 100 Beautiful Vacation Spots You'll Never Afford to Visit? Who reads that stuff? And then there are all those Nerd™ mags, those glossy $15 ads for marvel and dc and harry potter, [Movie That Just Came Out] Magazine or [Topical K-Pop Band] Magazine, ephemeral cash grabs, corporate masturbation, "look at all our IPs! Look at all the keys we can jingle in front of your face!" I want mine to have substance, I don't want it to feel like the stuff RedLetterMedia's Nerd Crew made fun of ("Very cool," "Very cool," "YOU KEEP HITTING THOSE HOMERUNS, DISNEY!")

This is all pretty nebulous right now, nothing but buzzwords, a bunch of feelings I want to evoke but no concrete steps on how I'm going to evoke them. I need to come up with specific articles and columns to fill the pages.

One section will be dedicated to the crazy headlines I originally envisioned, "Benedict XVI Unretires, Sparks Holy Civil War Against Francis," "Scientist Proves Earth Neither Globe Nor Flat, Secret Third Thing," "GOP Senator Reveals Himself as Antichrist, Party Leaders Say They'll Still Vote for Him Over Dems"

One section will have short stories and art, like those old sci-fi/fantasy pulp mags

News and opinion pieces and predictions without the right-wing bias that comes from being owned and operated by trillion dollar monopolies

I want there to be a sports page that talks about sports and teams that don't exist. I don't follow sport news, so it's all incomprehensible to me, and this section would recreate that confusion by talking about made up shit with the same enthusiasm and intensity as real sportswriters, "the Austin Bagpipers traded star quartermaster Jequon Woodruff to the Fargo Twineballs in a major blow to manager Ted Sunderson's ego. He may take it out by firing his fourth coach this mini-season. We'll have to wait and see how the Bagpipers fare against the Albuquerque Weirdos in the April Audacity bracket next year."

Comics

Polls

Quizzes

Games and puzzles

Maps

Weather in inordinate locations ("another hot one in the core of the sun, take whatever SPF you've got and double it," "no wildfires reported in Antarctica despite another unseasonably dry year," "Florida: just, no.")

Superlative awards ("most likely to make a fool of themselves on national television," "best eyebrows," "most likely to have been a squire named Duncan in a past life")

Person of the Year, awarded to the most average person on the planet (a farmer in Kyrgyzstan, a grocery store manager in southern China, a movie theater cashier from Uganda)

NO ADS! NONE! NOT EVEN AS A JOKE!

Hobbies and crafts

Tips and tricks

Dubious legal advice

The Skeptic's Guide to Atsrology (so, basically just astronomy, an educational section)

Fun facts

Experiments you can try at home

Experiments you can try at home if you don't mind being put on a government watchlist

Experiments best done away from home (and outside of federal jurisdiction)

Recipes hidden beneath novel-length personal text, "homemade chocolate chip cookies: my great grandfather was a member of the Cuban mafia before the Revolution..."

Hype for obscure holidays, "it's April, and you know what that means! It's almost Arbor Day!" If October is spooky month, and December is festive month, then other months deserve to be celebrated too.

A lot of my creative projects fail to get off the ground because they're too ambitious, I try to do too much too quickly, I get overwhelmed by the scale of things and give up, so these are more guidelines than a complete content description. My zine will have whatever I want it to have in the moment, and if I get feedback from readers then I'll focus on what's the most popular. More of this, less of that, bring back this one-off column, stop this recurring piece altogether, que sera sera.

I don't want to get ahead of myself, so the rest of 2022 is for me to figure out what exactly issue 1 is gonna include.

I'm open to suggestions. Nothing is set in stone.

[jackoshadows]

A fascinating and educational twitter thread about how Prohibition helped Botswana become one of the most stable countries in Africa. 

For decades since its independence in 1966, Botswana was an island of black sovereignty & stability between apartheid South Africa and white-supremacist Rhodesia. Some say it was the inspiration for #Wakanda in the movie #BlackPanther.  

In southern Africa as the world over, the Brits and European colonists ran the EXACT SAME PLAYBOOK of alco-colonization.

Read more at the link

Step 1: Introduce hard liquors--industrial distillates--to native populations with no experience with drinks of such mind-bending potency.  4/ Step 2: Clutch their pearls, and recoil in horror at the drunkenness and violence that predictably occurs within the native community and against white colonizers and liquor purveyors. In Africa, they called it the “black peril.”

Step 3: Cite that drunkenness as evidence of natives’ inability to be “civilized,” thus justifying white political domination over them. Africa, Asia, North America, even Ireland--everywhere it was the same pattern. See also: opium in China.

Hard liquor (whiskey, rum, gin, vodka, schnapps, etc.) was the perfect tool of exploitation. Highly potent. Concentrated. Easy to transport. Highly addictive. Didn’t spoil like fermented brews. Easy to make. Incredibly lucrative.

European colonizers would share liquor as a gesture of goodwill, and then once the alcoholic stupor set in, get tribal leaders to scrawl an “X” and sign-away their land, resources, and even people.  8/ More importantly, promoting widespread addiction to liquor made indigenous populations reliant on the colonists, just as junkies rely on drug dealers. Again, see also: opium in China, and two Opium Wars resisting it.  

What did natives have that colonists wanted? Ivory, food, furs, ivory, exotic ostrich feathers, rubber, ivory... the land and the minerals in it, and everything living on it. Also: ivory. And finally, the natives themselves were commodities: as labor or slaves.

If you’re a European trader & the locals trade ivory or furs for (say) your iron kettle, the entire village can use that for 20 years. Blankets might last 5 years before they need to trade with you again. There’s little demand for your wares. Or you. But if you can hook the community on booze that ONLY YOU supply, they’ll have to come back to you all. the. time. Now you’re indispensable. Addiction is self-renewing demand. Becoming the sole drug dealer to a community of addicts is ridiculously profitable. Need proof? Riddle me this: What was the first factory on the continent of Africa? Of course, Africa is rich in every resource imaginable: minerals, gems, ivory, rubber, oil, cocoa, fruit and timber that could be processed into goods.  

Here it is. In 1881, the Dutch Transvaal government granted a monopoly on distilled brandy to the Hatherley Distillery near Pretoria. The company was called “De Eerste Fabriken”--the First Factory. It wasn't first because the white settlers drank it. They largely didn’t.

Instead, with the discovery of gold & diamonds, white mine-owners needed black labor. They lured workers to the mines with promises of liquor, knowing if they had large booze debts to pay back, tribesmen would have to work longer, rather than returning to their village.  

(South African Breweries--today the world’s largest brewer--was founded soon thereafter to provide British-style beer to a white clientele, while the cheap liquor from Hatherley was reserved for indenturing black workers.)  

Consequently, every native leader worth his salt was a prohibitionist--defending his people against the “white man’s wicked water.” King Moshoeshoe in Lesotho. Chief Waterboer in Griqualand. Tembu headman Mankai Renga & hundreds more. In Africa as around the globe, temperance and prohibitionism became the banner for subaltern sovereignty against the white colonial junkiemaker.

Which brings us back to Botswana. Or Bechuanaland, as it was then known. It had long been ruled by tribal chiefs, led by Bamangwato King Khama III ("the Great"), who’d allied with the British against the Dutch Boers.

Three months after ascending the throne in 1873, he informed all white traders on his territory that trading liquor w/ his people was now prohibited. “If, when you give one another a drink, you turn around and give it to my people also, I shall regard you as blameworthy.”  Europeans scoffed & kept selling--until Khama expelled them all: “I am black and am chief of my own country. When you white men rule then you will do as you like. At present I rule, and I shall maintain my laws which you insult and despise.” Prohibition was sovereignty.   “There are 3 things which distress me—war, selling people, and drink,” Khama wrote the British in 1876, asking the Queen’s protection. “All these I shall find in the Boers.”

By 1884, Bechuanaland was British protectorate, respecting Khama’s prohibition.   Meanwhile the 1890s, Britain’s Cape Colony was dominated by the notorious Cecil Rhodes: founder of the De Beers diamond syndicate, quintessential imperialist and unapologetic white supremacist.

“I contend that we are the finest race in the world and that the more of the world we inhabit the better it is for the human race,” Rhodes wrote. “Africa is still lying ready for us--it is our duty to take it.”   In 1889, Rhodes organized his mining interests into the chartered British South Africa Company (BSAC), which had its own government and army. In 1890, he also became Prime Minister of the Cape Colony.   In the First Matabele War (1893-94), 750 BSAC “police” with machine guns killed over 10,000 Matabele spearmen, bringing Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) under Company control. Khama’s Tswana tribesmen served on the side of the Company.

According to BSAC shareholder reports, one of the first items of business wherever the Company set-up control was to farm-out the liquor trade to white settlers. Profits are profits, regardless of prohibition promises.   Rhodes famously dreamed of building a trans-African railroad connecting Cape Town to Cairo... which meant taking Bechuanaland, even though Khama was regaled as a loyal British ally.

From 1892-95, the conniving Rhodes used every administrative trick possible to place Khama’s Bechuanaland Protectorate under the sovereignty of the Company, but was stymied either by Khama or the Colonial Office in London.   By 1895, Khama had enough. Together w/ fellow chiefs Bathoen and Sebele, he voyaged to London to petition Queen Victoria’s government to keep Bechuanaland out of Rhodes’ grasp.

“The two points on which the natives seem to be apprehensive,” the Imperial Secretary in Cape Town telegraphed London, “are the questions of land and liquor.”   The 3 kings arrived in September 1895, and were supposed to meet with Colonial Secretary Joseph Chamberlain. But he--like the rest of the Queen’s government--had left for their annual vacations until November.   “I have for years tried to abolish the use of strong liquors in my country, and prevent the importation of European drinks,” Khama told the London press, lamenting that his efforts “should be hampered by agitation in my country and outside it.”   While awaiting for an audience with Chamberlain or Queen Victoria, Khama, Sebele and Bathoen toured the width and breadth of the British Isles, winning British public opinion to the side of their temperance and sovereignty. 

The Review of Reviews reprinted Khama’s plea that “you, O British people, will not paralyse my efforts by compelling me to submit to the invasion of my country by the trader with his poisonous liquors.”   If Britain were to ignore Khama’s calls for help, the papers editorialized, then the British people “should stand condemned as the most God-forsaken set of canting hypocrites on the whole round earth.”   Following the kings‘ temperance visits, a flood of popular petitions inundated the Colonial Office from across the country, strenuously opposing giving Bechuanaland over to Rhodes‘ Company.   Prior to the meeting, the kings plead their case to Chamberlain: “We fear the Company because we think they will take our land and sell it to others. We fear that they will fill our country with liquor shops, as they have Bulawayo.”

The kings offered concessions and the payment of additional poll taxes, if London would only delay the inevitable annexation by Rhodes’ Company by 10 years. “Do not let them bring liquor into our country to kill our people speedily.” 

On Nov. 6, 1895, Chamberlain finally met with the chiefs to dictate terms. The chiefs would pay a hut tax and sacrifice a strip of land for Rhodes‘ railway in exchange for maintaining their sovereignty as a protectorate.   “White man’s strong drink shall not be brought for sale into the country, and those who attempt to deal in it or give it away to black men will be punished. No new liquor license shall be issued, and no existing liquor license shall be renewed,” Chamberlain declared. 

Weeks later, Chamberlain escorted the Chiefs to Windsor castle for an audience with “the Great White Queen” herself, Queen Victoria, who confirmed the arrangements that Chamberlain had made.   “The sale of strong drink shall be prohibited in your country &those who attempt to supply it shall be severely punished,” the Queen declared. “I feel strongly in this matter, & am glad to see that the chiefs have determined to keep so great a curse from the people.”   Pleased, though unaware of British protocols, Sebele told the press: “Her Majesty if a very charming old lady... But I had no idea that she was so short and stout... I shall go back home contented.” They did.   Far less pleased was Cecil Rhodes, who telegraphed London: “I do object to being beaten by three canting natives especially on the score of temperance.”

And then: “IT IS HUMILIATING TO BE UTTERLY BEATEN BY THESE NI***RS.” 

Bechuanaland’s stay of execution may have been short lived, were it not for what happened next. Upon returning to Bechuanaland, Khama met Sir Leander Starr Jameson, who was leading a BSAC military force.  Jameson’s orders were to instigate an insurrection across the border in the Dutch Transvaal, whipping-up British sympathizers and lead to an all-out British invasion to topple the rival Dutch Boers.  But in a crowning irony, Jameson’s Raid was doomed by liquor. To take the Dutch by surprise, the British would cut the telegraph lines so Boer outposts couldn’t sound the alarm of invasion.  Instead of cutting the telegraph lines, a drunken British soldier instead cut a farmer’s wire fence. The Dutch anticipated and tracked the whole raid, ambushed and decimated the attackers & imprisoned Rhodes’ brother Frank.

London condemned Rhodes‘ reckless adventurism, forcing him to step down from the BSAC in disgrace. The imperial threat to Bechuanaland’s sovereignty and sobriety was over.  The British honored Khama’s prohibition & sovereignty right through Botswana’s independence in 1966. Today the bronze Three Dikgosi Monument honoring Khama, Bathoen & Sebele is the most visited destination in the 🇧🇼 capital of Gaborone.

Were it not for their 1895 temperance mission to Britain, what is today Botswana would’ve long been absorbed into either Britain’s Cape Colony (now South Africa) or Rhodesia (Zimbabwe)--much to their people’s detriment--instead of becoming its own independent country.   Without prohibition, there’d be no Botswana. And in honor of their Founding Fathers, Botswana emblazoned the picture of the chiefs‘ 1895 temperance mission to London on their 100 Pula note.

HEY! If you liked this liquor-politics thread, may I humbly suggest checking-out my new “Smashing the Liquor Machine: A Global History of Prohibition” book, which contains literally dozens of them. 

[blackmaylovesfries]

MX Powers Part 1 - 1st Question

Asked: Yes, by @babybee05​, my darling!

Words: 1743

Sinopse: “How do they discover their powers & what are their individual powers” - So, this one-shot explains more about the boys’ species and what exactly are their powers and what they do.

Notices: I’m not well versed in Fairy Canon Universe so I mostly invented here. Hope I didn’t offended anyone! Also, if you have any advice, I’ll take it! Also, this isn’t really a one-shot since I had to do a lot of explanations so it got more like a topic post… Sorry to disappoint…

Masterpost

URGENT - BIRTHDAY POLL - Wonho’s B-Day is getting closer, help me!

Next

In this universe that I created without any research there are some details about fairies:

Fairies - Beautiful beings that can fly. They can have both human and animal appearance and their wings can be concealed if they wish to. Their powers and elements are random since genetics works a little different with them but usually their elements are the same as their parents.

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The Elementary Clans - There are 4 big clans of fairies, Air, Earth, Fire and Water. They each have subcategories and variations of powers inside them. The relation between the clans is peaceful and friendly. Although they have their ‘favorites’, like Water and Air, all 4 clans live in harmony and hold annual meetings to both discuss serious matters and party with one another.

Being an air fairy means that you could have a lot of different powers. Usually the air fairies divided themselves into tribes, each one mastering one type of power but at the end they weren’t strict about staying only in one only tribe forever.

The fire clan was more intense so it’s fairies didn’t divided themselves, all being in couple of big villages and training both their common gifs and their individual ones in academies builded by the Emperor of the Fire Fairy Clan.

The water fairies were the strangest. They didn’t even meet one another if not during their twice a year gatherings. So all of them train alone or with their blood family but mostly are very calm and easy to talk to, the later being not necessarily a good thing sometimes.

Now, being an earth fairy definitely makes you the closest to human between the 4 Clans. The earth clan lived near other species’ cities so they can make trades and sell their goodies. Earth fairies also are the ones that most value family and connections, so all their youngests are trained near their own home.

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Relation With Other Species - Usually fairies stay in their community because, even if they are a friendly specie, they prefer their own kind. There are exceptions and, knowing the free beings fairies were, the ones who choose to live with the rest of the world would always be received with happiness like they never left.

They also rarely involve themselves in another specie issues but for thoses who are able to convince all 4 fairy leaders they are powerful and loyal allies. Also rare is the marriage of fairies and others beings and many of their offspring turned bad at the early times so now there are some prejudice around half-bloods.

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Fairy Powers - Normally fairies reach 5 years old before starting to manifest their individual powers (that means we don’t count flying), at the latest they could have to reach 14 years to develop them.

They are completely random but their nature (element) usually comes from genes but it isn’t unusual to the point to be rare when the fairy develops a different element from their parents. Normally the later you manifest your gifs the more ordinary they are. Not that you will suffer because of that but it’s really rare to legendary gifts to come after 8 years old.

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So, knowing this, we can go to the explanation of the boys:

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- Shownu:

Hyunwoo was originally from the tribe that could manipulate light but just as he manifested his Holy Vision, his family moved to their current home, the illusion manipulation tribe. He was almost 10 when it happened.

His family was certain that he would have a ordinary gift, like airbend or lightbend since he was born in the light tribe. So imagine their surprise when the kinda late Hyunwoo suddenly started to see pixies and weird lights! When he described it to his teacher, the male immediately called his parents and explained that their boy had just manifested the rare Holy Vision.

His parents were crying and the other relatives were having even bigger reactions. All of that just confused the little Hyunwoo. He was already a distracted kid, after manifesting his power he became worse and worse at focusing in something that was solo in our main plan.

That super rare and amazing power is a great blessing for air fairies. They believed that it was one of the last presents the God race had given to their specie. Two to three air fairies every century would develop it and they lived for something like 4 centuries or more if they took care of themselves.

The Holy Vision works like this: It’s user will see other layers of the world, layers that other beings weren’t able to notice even if they wanted to. So, the pixies they see are what humans call “destiny” or even “guardian angels”, what made sense since they liked to follow and play around with who couldn’t see them.

Also, the lights the users see are the true essence of those around them. Although is believed that the inner thoughts of someone is something that just that person knows, sometimes not even the owner of the heart themselve knows, their hearts had actually send reverberations and waves to the other layers of the world.

So, Hyunwoo could not only see the responsables for the human Butterfly Effect, he could also see the true essence of the beings around them, even if themselves try to hid it or don’t even know yet about what they are.

As the Holy Vision develops, some of it’s users could even feel temperature of the souls, making easier to tell the true nature of them. Each user has a preference and is attracted by a soul that has certain aspects, Hyunwoo found that he was rather happier when near a warm and bright souls. That’s why he found his way to Monsta X.

Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ

- Wonho:

Hoseok was an earth fairy. His clan doesn’t have a lot of power variation, what doesn’t means that there aren’t amazing individuals. At his clan one should rely on their own strength to grow and develop their powers. That was exactly what Hoseok did.

He manifested his Strength when he hit 6 years old. He gave his family a scare when he almost strangled his older cousin while the two was playing near their houses. Hoseok just wanted to hop on the other’s back, like they always did, but his hands was putted wrong and ended at his cousin’s neck.

His father then started to train him, giving Hoseok directions on how to develop and control his gift. The little fairy got all that his father taught him quite quickly even his rules. The most important one was that Hoseok shall be super careful near anyone weaker than him that he doesn’t want to hurt.

Since teen age, after some events, is hard to Wonho to deal with physical contact. He was always the most careful one and rarely stay near others when there were not some form of first aids near. Even fans or the members were not allowed to touch him without letting him know first.

His Strength wasn’t exactly pure force. It was a magical gift after all! It’s true nature comes from the bonds Hoseok made during his life. On contrary of what some may believe, his Strength came from those who he wanted to protect not to those who he wanted to hurt.

So the more he wants to protect and help someone, stronger he becomes, more powerful he turns. Even the slightest sign of danger could trigger his protective aura and he could even lost some of his conscious while trying to protect those who are important to him.

His protective aura could be as light as just overbearing presence to as heavy as turning him into a true killing machine. Without having control over his body and mind, Wonho would be forced to end any treats that are near his protected being, making no difference between friends and foes.

He lived in fear of hurting someone for a long time. Most of the earth fairies that have the Strength end up leaving the community, some never came back. Hoseok joined Monsta X to learn more about living with his power in a society. His family was scared but fully supported him at the end.

Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ

- Minhyuk:

This boy is actually from the same tribe as Shownu. He and his family are one of the few families in the air clan who could change their form. They are specially distant of the rest of the fairies and tend to educate their children in almost complete reclusion.

At ancient times when fairies were still evolving and most of them were pixies, it was common to humans and werewolves to hunt down those families that could change forms. So, as a defense mechanism, those fairies are quite suspicious and ative. They can’t stay put for long.

Those families also don’t usually have other powers besides flying (from the specie) and turning into the family animal (from the genes). This is the only case that fairy genetics works perfectly. In the case of Minhyuk’s family, they turn into white snakes.

Children from those families normally manifest this power as soon as they are able to chew things. So Minhyuk had a really good and kinda easy childhood. Although he had some difficulties when going to Monsta X, since he had been raised in seclusion even if he is sociable he doesn’t really know were are people’s bottom line.

His power is really cool, even if not as rare as Shownu’s one. When he is fully transformed and grown his snake form can reach almost a kilometer and is strong enough to put up a fight with Wonho for at least 20 minutes. But when he is a kid, like on the story, he can be between 10 to 20 centimeters.

Being a light and an air fairy, Minhyuk is quite sensible to the weather and day/night time. He hates when is raining or cold and when is dark. So he often sleeps with the other guys in their beds. Also being a snake shapeshifter makes him incapable of warming himself.

That explains why he has so much nightmares. When he’s cold, his body are more susceptible to bad influences, even if his inheritance protect him from most of it. During the winter he would transform into a small snake and sleep inside Wonho’s clothes, near his heart.

He also can transform just partially, so he can just have scales or the snake iris, he likes to do it for special shows or when he needs to be charming and show off. As he grow up he can control it more and more, creating beautiful mixes between humanoid and snake.

❤♫❤♫❤.•*¨`*•..¸♥☼♥¸.•*¨`*•.♫❤♫❤♫❤ ❤♫❤♫❤.•*¨`*•..¸♥☼♥¸.•*¨`*•.♫❤♫❤♫

I hope you all like it!!! Mostly who asked of this! Tomorrow I post the part 2!!

[xtruss]

Since 9/11, US Muslims Have Gained Unprecedented Political, Cultural Influence

— By Steve Friess | 09/01/21

It's been an impressive 2021 so far for Muslim Americans. The U.S. Senate, that bastion of partisan gridlock, overwhelmingly confirmed the nation's first Muslims as a federal district court judge and to chair the Federal Trade Commission. Legislatures in five states swore in their first Muslim members, including a nonbinary, queer hijab-wearing representative in, of all places, Oklahoma. Three Detroit suburbs are poised this fall to elect their first Muslim mayors. The New York Jets tapped Robert Saleh as the first Muslim head coach of any American pro sports team. CBS premiered, then renewed The United States of Al, the first broadcast network sitcom with a Muslim lead character. And Riz Ahmed, star of Sound of Metal, became the first Muslim nominated for an Oscar for Best Actor.

"Everywhere I look, I see firsts happening," says MLB Tonight sportscaster Adnan Virk, who in 2012 became the first on-air Muslim host on ESPN.

As the 20th anniversary of September 11 approaches, the recent rise of many Muslim Americans to positions of power and influence—in Washington and in statehouses, on big screens and small ones, across playing fields and news desks—is a development that few in the U.S. would have predicted two decades ago, Muslims included. In the immediate aftermath of the terrorist attacks by the radical Islamic sect Al-Qaeda, anti-Muslim hate crimes exploded and the ensuing global "war on terror" to root out jihadists created a "climate of discrimination, fear and intolerance," as one think tank described it, that surrounded people of Islamic faith in this country and lasted for years. Then, just as heightened anti-Muslim sentiment in the U.S. seemed to be subsiding, Donald Trump was elected president in 2016 on an agenda overtly hostile towards Muslims, and revved it up again.

It is the experience of coming of age in this post-9/11 environment, experts say, that drew a new generation of young Muslims to activism, and motivated them to use their voices in political and cultural arenas to debunk misinformation. That they've found a receptive audience beyond the Muslim community suggests to some observers that many Americans now understand that the anti-Islamic rhetoric they've been served in recent years is based on myths and untrue. As Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, who in 2007 became the first Muslim sworn in as a member of Congress, tells Newsweek, "The haters have been proven to be liars."

Maybe. But trend data suggests the answer is not that simple and anti-Islamic sentiment remains a factor 20 years after 9/11. Anti-Muslim hate crimes, for instance, are second only to anti-Semitic incidents, FBI statistics show. And in a Gallup poll, one-third of Americans, and a full 62 percent of Republicans, said they'd never vote for a Muslim candidate for president, by far the least support for people of any religion in the survey.

Anti-Islamic sentiment remains a factor 20 years after 9/11. President Donald Trump's ban on travel from seven Muslim-majority countries didn't help (here, protestors make their feeling about the ban known). Jack Taylor/Getty

Is the recent rise of Muslim Americans to positions of prominence a temporary surge forged during the backlash of the Trump era or a permanent change in American consciousness? Are the constant, often viciously personal attacks on Representatives Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan—the most famous Muslims in American politics as well as two of the nation's most strident progressives—a last gasp of Islamophobia or proof that, in some quarters at least, it's never going away? If, in fact, the political and cultural shift toward Muslims has staying power, what will the impact be?

The answers are still unfolding. "Muslims are becoming more a part of the American tapestry, but they are still a marginalized group," says political scientist Youssef Chouhoud of Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia. "The question now is, OK, so you have these Muslims in public office, in the public eye, on commercials, on TV shows. But does it stick? That's TBD."

Identity Forged in Adversity

When the attacks by Al-Qaeda occurred 20 years ago, the makeup of the Muslim community in the U.S. was much different than it is today: significantly smaller, older, more conservative, less organized, and made up of more Black Americans and far fewer recent immigrants.

In 2001, roughly 1 million Muslims lived in the U.S., according to the Association of Religious Data Archives, versus 3.5 million recently. As a group, they formed a solid Republican voting bloc, with the immigrant community in particular drawn to the GOP's messages of self-reliance, small government and conservative social policies on issues like abortion and gay rights. George W. Bush won 72 percent of Muslim votes in 2000, according to the Council on American Islamic Relations, or CAIR; other polls put the figure lower by still showed a big GOP tilt. After 9/11 that support plummeted, with just 7 percent backing Bush in his 2004 face-off with Democrat John Kerry.

Party affiliation wasn't the only shift among Muslims in the U.S. in the post-9/11 years. Before the attacks, Muslim Americans seldom saw themselves as a single community bound by a common faith as much as a disparate collection of distinct ethnic groups—Iranian, Iraqi, Syrian, Pakistani and Egyptian among many others—that kept to and fended for themselves, says Niloofar Haeri, chair of Islamic Studies in the anthropology department at Johns Hopkins University. The other large bloc of Muslims in the country were Black Americans who saw the Islam of Malcolm X and boxer Muhammed Ali as both a religion and a political identity used to advocate for the poor and marginalized. That application of the faith, says Haeri, unsettled many immigrant Muslims who came to the U.S. to escape theocracies.

Many Black Americans saw the Islam of Malcolm X (pictured here) and boxer Muhammed Ali as both a religion and a political identity used to advocate for the poor and marginalized. Michael Ochs Archives/Getty

Then came the ferocious backlash after the September 11 attacks, marked by a wave of physical and verbal assaults on Muslims and anyone who "looked" Muslim. According to the FBI, there were 28 reports of anti-Muslim hate crimes in 2000; in 2001, that number had climbed to nearly 500. Although then-President George W. Bush had initially urged people not to take out their fear and anger Muslim Americans, his administration later went on to surveil mosques and college Muslim organizations looking for terrorists and invaded Iraq in 2003 on later-debunked claims of involvement with Al-Qaeda and plans to build weapons of mass destruction. Many Christian religious leaders during this period made harsh anti-Islamic remarks as well.

Conservative politicians also spent several campaign cycles in the post-9/11 period ginning up public fear that Muslims wanted to impose Sharia in America—that is, turn religious strictures of Islam into laws akin to those of some Middle Eastern theocracies. "For a while Republicans were all about banning Sharia law, which doesn't exist anywhere in America that I'm aware of," Ellison says. "In another way, every Muslim does 'Sharia law' every day. When I pray, that's Sharia. When I fast for Ramadan, that's Sharia. When I don't eat pork, that's Sharia. And these are the people who say they defend religious freedom."

All of this stoked fear of unwarranted reprisals among Muslim Americans and helped forge a generation of young activists who are now winning political office from city council to Congress, Chouhoud says. By 2007, 84 percent of 12- to 18-year-old Muslim Americans said they had experienced at least one act of anti-Islamic discrimination in the prior year, a New York University study found. In 2009, more than 82 percent of Muslims in the U.S. reported feeling unsafe, an Adelphi University survey found.

Muslim Americans faced a choice: Grin and bear it or band together and respond, Haeri says. "One of the most consequential changes that happened in various Muslim communities post-9/11 was that those Muslims who were not religious and did not identify as Muslim before 9/11 were suddenly being treated as Muslims whether they wanted to be or not and were asked questions about Islam," Haeri recalls. "Muslim communities filled with newly self-identifying Muslims. There was a lot of soul searching: Why are we shunning this heritage entirely?"

Meanwhile, more religious Muslim Americans, especially the ones who fled autocratic regimes and failed economies, baffled over questions about their patriotism. "We had to redefine ourselves and push back against injustice—from our country, from the government, from the media, from popular culture," says Nihad Awad, co-founder and executive director of CAIR. "We felt the pain about 9/11 that everyone felt but more pain than many because we were blamed for what happened—something we had nothing to do with."

Adversity fused a far-flung gaggle of nationalities into a coalition of necessity, says Democratic Representative Andre Carson of Indiana, who in 2008 became the second Muslim elected Congress. "This role was paved decades ago by the indigenous African-American Muslim community, but 9/11 allowed the immigrant Muslim community to see that the African-American Muslim community was right all along in calling out racial injustices, calling out governmental excess as it relates to violations of civil liberties and spying on fellow U.S. citizens," says Carson, who is Black.

At the same time, throughout the Bush and Obama years, the pace of immigration to the U.S. from Muslim-majority nations in the Middle East, Asia and Africa surged. Between 2002 and 2016, the number of Muslim refugees accepted into U.S. rose 627 percent—from about 6,000 a year to almost 40,000—which, along with the highest birth rate of any religious group, caused the sharp increase in the Muslim population. The influx has since stopped, as the Trump administration cut the number of refugees accepted into the U.S. to an all-time low of fewer than 12,000 in total, almost all of whom were Christian, according to State Department data.

During the period, Muslim visibility in everyday life increased for many because of where they live now: the suburbs. Nearly half of mosques are now in bedroom communities outside major cities, up from 38 percent in 2010, according to a July report from the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, which researches trends in American Muslim life. At the same time, the actual number of mosques rose dramatically, more than doubling from 1,209 to 2,769 since 2000.

The number of mosques in the U.S. has more than doubled, to 2,769, since 2000. Here, an outdoor prayer event at Masjid Aqsa-Salam mosque, Manhattan's oldest West African mosque. Spencer Platt/Getty

"The age-old pattern of immigrants achieving financial success and moving away from cities seems to be repeating itself in the American Muslim community," ISPU notes.

By the election of Trump, who as a candidate in 2015 called for a "total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States," the American Muslim community was bigger, brasher and uniformly unwilling to roll over. Indeed, observes MSNBC anchor Ali Velshi, Trump's effort to ostracize Muslims, and a subsequent rise in anti-Muslim rhetoric and hate crimes to levels not seen since 2001, lit a spark.

"Something is happening right now," says Velshi, who is believed to be the first Muslim to helm a cable network news program. "It feels like a flourishing of Muslims across industries and across platforms."

Running While Muslim

The arc of Sadaf Jaffer's adult life—from college freshman at Georgetown during 9/11 to the nation's first female Muslim mayor in 2019—offers a useful road map of what has happened to Muslims in U.S. politics over the past two decades and, particularly, recently.

The 38-year-old, who was born in Chicago to immigrants from Pakistan and Yemen, had planned to be a U.S. diplomat and interned at both the State Department and the Marine Corps. But she became increasingly distressed by the anti-Islam sentiment rising across the U.S. and, in 2007, shifted her focus, enrolling at Harvard to pursue a doctorate in philosophy focused on Islamic cultures in South Asia. Her goal: "Understanding Muslim societies better so I could teach about Muslim societies in their complexity."

By 2017, she was a professor at Princeton University so alarmed by the election of Donald Trump that she decided to go into politics by running for a seat on the Montgomery Township Committee, the governing council for a wealthy, fast-growing New Jersey burg of 24,000 residents about 20 miles north of Trenton. Even on such a small scale, the notion terrified her family. "My parents told me, 'Shouldn't we lie low and not draw attention to ourselves right now?' but I felt like if we don't stand up for our rights now, who's to say that we'll even have rights moving forward," Jaffer says.

Jaffer won that seat and, in 2019, was elevated to mayor. Her status as the nation's first female Muslim mayor, she says, was blared in foreboding tones across pro-Trump news sites and Twitter. "That caused an avalanche of hate mail—violent ones, too, about how all of us should be removed from the planet," she says.

It didn't deter her from seeking higher office. This June, she won the Democratic nomination for a seat in the New Jersey Assembly; if she wins this fall, she'll be the first Muslim (and first Asian American) in the Garden State's legislature. She is bracing for some anti-Muslim sentiment but also views her campaigns as a chance to debunk constituents' misconceptions about Islam.

"Those person-to-person connections are really important," she says. "They're about getting to know people as human beings."

If Jaffer wins, she'll follow on the success in the 2020 election that brought the first Muslim legislators to capitols of Delaware, Oklahoma, Colorado, Florida and Wisconsin, and the first re-election of Omar and Tlaib. There are other firsts likely to come this fall too; the top vote-getters in the August primaries for mayor of Detroit suburbs Dearborn, Dearborn Heights and Hamtramck—enclaves with large Muslim populations—were all Muslims.

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi administers the oath of office to members earlier this year, including Representatives Andre Carson, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, three of only four Muslims who have served in Congress. Erin Scott/Getty

In all, a record 170 Muslim candidates were on ballots in 28 states in 2020, up from 57 in 2018, and 62 of them won. Exit polling showed that more than 1 million Muslims voted last year, also a record.

"When Trump won, it was a wake-up call for the community," says Wa'el Alzayat, the CEO of Emgage, an organization promoting civic engagement among Muslim American communities.

Also notable: Almost all of these winners are Millennials; Tlaib, at 45 and slightly older than that cohort, is an exception. And most of these Muslim politicans report being the target of some form of anti-Islam sentiment while running.

"They sent out emails connecting me with Ilhan Omar and accusing all the Muslim candidates running across the country of being Islamist or Jihadists," says Delaware state Representative Madinah Wilson-Anton, 27, who ousted a 20-year Democratic incumbent in 2020 to become her chamber's first Muslim. "I was door-knocking and someone was like, 'Go back to your country.'"

Wilson-Anton is not the only Muslim candidate whose religion is used by opponents as grounds to call their qualifications for office into question. In June, GOP Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia sent a fundraising email attacking Omar as a "terrorist-supporting member of the Jihad Squad." Sam Rasoul, the first Muslim to run for lieutenant governor in Virginia, was asked in May by a debate moderator whether he could reassure voters he would "represent all of them, regardless of faith or beliefs." And Joe Biden's nominee for deputy administrator of the Small Business Administration, health care executive Dilawar Syed, is in confirmation limbo after two GOP senators objected to the fact that he is on the board of Emgage, the Muslim nonprofit. (He says he'll resign if confirmed.)

In each of these recent cases, though, a broad spectrum from various religious and ideological groups have joined Muslims to object to how the candidates are being treated. An opponent of Rasoul's, for instant, lambasted the debate moderator from the stage for asking the question and social media scorn was so swift that an anchor for the TV station, WJLA, apologized that night on the air. In Syed's case, several Jewish groups are rallying to his side.

"Overall," says Emgage CEO Alzayat, "things are moving in the right direction."

People protest the Muslim travel ban outside of the US Supreme Court in Washington, DC on June 26, 2018. Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty

A Growing Impact

In office, many of these legislators can point to measures influenced directly by their Muslim backgrounds. Wilson-Anton in June pushed through a new law requiring schools to excuse student absences for religious observances such as Muslim or Jewish holidays. Saqib Ali, who at age 31 in 2006 was elected Maryland's first Muslim state legislator, co-sponsored a law with a Jewish colleague allowing for the licensure of funeral directors who do not embalm bodies because observant members of both faiths do not do so. After someone left a slab of pork on a Muslim family's car in her town, Jaffer started the Montgomery Mosaic, a monthly series of community-wide events to combat hate crimes.

More broadly, Chouhoud says, having more Muslims in the halls of power has changed some conversations. In May, when violence erupted between Israel and Palestine, for example, several Democratic leaders in Washington expressed concern about Israel's aggressive response and the plight of Palestinians. That, he says, was due in part to the activism of Omar and Tlaib. "It's pretty undeniable that the presence of Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib in Congress has given voice to opinions that other Congresspeople in the past have either shied away from or found to be outside of the bounds of what they can actually say, even if they personally held those positions," he says.

Indeed, the congresswomen, both of whom declined Newsweek's requests for interviews, are considered inspirational trailblazers by many within the American Islamic community who see them exploding myths about Muslim women being docile and submissive, Haeri says. Even their differences—Omar wears a hijab, Tlaib is famous for her penchant for swearing—shows "the diversity of Muslim women in a way that surprises and educates a lot of people," Haeri says.

Democratic Representatives Rashida Tlaib of Michigan (left) and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota are considered inspirational trailblazers by many within the American Islamic community. Tom Williams/Getty

Virtually every Muslim elected to state legislatures—and all four who have ever been elected to Congress—are progressive Democrats; Carson, the Indiana congressman, was among the first elected officials to endorse Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, a Democratic Socialist, for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. Sanders held firm to that support four years later; a CAIR survey in February 2020 found 39 percent of Muslim Democrats supported Sanders versus 27 percent for Biden. For many Americans, this alignment defies well-worn stereotypes about Muslims as extreme social conservatives who would not support a pro-choice, pro-LGBTQ Jewish candidate.

Yet the Omar-Tlaib approach is offensive and troubling for some politically conservative Muslims, who object to what they say is an underlying message that Muslims are badly-treated victims of bias. "The experience of American Muslims is one that's overwhelmingly positive," says Omar Qudrat, 40, of California who in 2018 was the first Muslim to win the GOP nomination for a seat in Congress. (He lost by 23 points.) "Many of us reject the victimhood narrative. Do we have problems? Absolutely. But it would be tragic for any young American Muslim to believe all they amount to is being a victim of this great country."

Qudrat and prominent Muslim conservative Zuhdi Jasser defend Trump's policies as being in the interest of national security and praise him for brokering treaties between Israel and Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. "I'm not embarrassed of my faith," says Jasser, a Phoenix physician appointed by Republican Senator Mitch McConnell in 2012 to the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom. "But I understand the mindset of a country that was attacked. Those wounds are still very deep."

Gold medalist, Dalilah Muhammad of the United States, poses on the podium during the medal ceremony for the Women's 400m Hurdles on Day 14 of the Rio 2016 Olympic Games at the Olympic Stadium on August 19, 2016 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. David Ramos/Getty

There is an audience for this view: Trump modestly increased his share of the Muslim vote in 2020 to 17 percent from 13 percent in 2016, CAIR reports.

"Muslims are still a relatively socially conservative population," Chouhoud says. "Certain values and priorities do overlap between Muslims and Republicans. It's just that there's the sense that there is no place for Muslims within the Republican Party."

Jasser maintains the GOP is not as anti-Muslim as progressives believe, citing the confirmations earlier this summer of Lina Khan to chair the FTC and Judge Zahid Quraishi to the federal bench, by wide bipartisan margins. Awad, of CAIR, counters by citing Republican opposition to other Muslims nominated by Biden for positions within the administration, such as Reema Dudin as deputy director of the White House Office of Legislative Affairs, and the long GOP-led delay on Syed's bid for an SBA post.

"To dismiss the rest of the Muslim community's concerns about discrimination, they must be living on the moon," Awad says. "I have not met a Muslims since 9/11 who has not experienced some form of discrimination."

Alzayat of Emgage, for one, hopes the GOP does, in fact, become more hospitable. "There will come a day when we have Muslim Republicans running, Muslim Democrats running, Muslim independents running, and they can have healthy disagreements about policies," Alzayat says. "That would be good for the community and good for democracy."

The Stars and the Crescent

This moment of ascendence for American Muslims is not only about political achievements. Popular culture, too, is seeing a sharp increase in Muslim representation, and the two trends feed each other. Movies and television offer familiarity that helps fuel acceptance, allowing many non-Muslim Americans who don't personally know anyone who practices Islam to see Muslim characters woven into the fabric of everyday life.

"It's an opportunity to create greater empathy for and less prejudice towards Muslims off-screen," says Arij Mikati of Pillars Fund, a Muslim philanthropy that next year will award $25,000 grants to 10 Muslim TV or movie storytellers.

Among those helping to drive this new level of cultural visibility: Ramy Youssef, who won a Golden Globe and a Peabody Award in 2020 for Ramy, a half-hour Hulu dramedy about a first-generation Muslim-American millennial struggling with his faith. Also in the cast for the show's second season was Mahershala Ali, the first Muslim actor to win an Academy Award, for his supporting roles in Moonlight (2016) and Green Book (2018). Disney+ is due this fall to drop Ms. Marvel, introducing Marvel's first Muslim superhero, a shapeshifting, bubble-gum-chewing Pakistani-American teen from New Jersey. And there are past and present recent series like Patriot Act with Hasan Minhaj and United States of Al, a CBS sitcom about a U.S. war veteran who helps his Afghan interpreter move to Ohio.

The Netflix series "Patriot Act with Hasan Minhaj" is one of a number of shows that helped to bring Muslim actors and storytellers a new level of cultural visibility. Matt Doyle/Getty

Jaffer, the Montgomery Township mayor, says she's also noticed greater Muslim visibility on kids' shows like Sesame Street and Peg Plus Cat, and it's extended to her daughter's first-grade classroom, where the teacher this spring read a book about Ramadan to students. "Those things seem like little victories, that our celebrations are being recognized as part of America,'" she says. "It's nice, because as a child, I had to explain everything. Just imagine asking a six-year-old to answer, 'What is Christmas?'"

Some Muslim actors and celebrities say they try to advance the ball, talking openly about their faith and cultural identity when asked—or not asked. Adnan Virk, while still at ESPN in 2016, recalls being asked to help anchor coverage after boxer Muhammed Ali died. "One of our producers called and said, 'Hey, we don't know anything about Islamic funerals. Could you come in?'" Virk recalls. "That made sense. They wouldn't know. Open casket, closed casket? What prayers are they reciting? Why is he draped in white? That was a cool moment."

Comic Negin Farsad, a frequent panelist on the NPR quiz show Wait Wait...Don't Tell Me!, says she takes "any occasion I can when it fits organically in the joke to make mention of being Muslim. I do that to let people know that one of their favorite radio comedy shows has a Muzz on it and it's cool."

And MSNBC's Velshi says he intentionally tries to bring on guests and experts who are Muslims and of other marginalized communities to talk about topics unrelated to their identities. "It's the simplest thing in the world to do to break down barriers, to cause people to open their minds," Velshi says. "I want my roster of guests to look like the full breadth of America. Familiarity breeds understanding."

But while there are undeniably more Muslims in higher visibility and breakthrough roles, experts in and outside of the American Islamic community note that the numbers and depictions still don't come close to fair representation. A USC Annenberg study this June of 200 popular global movies from 2017 to 2019 found that just 1.1 percent of the speaking characters in U.S. films and 1.6 percent overall were Muslim, still frequently stereotyped as outsiders, threatening or subservient, particularly to white characters.

"More than half of the primary and secondary Muslim characters were immigrants, migrants, or refugees, which consistently rendered Muslims as 'foreign,'" says Al-Baab Khan, one of the study authors. "Film audiences only see a narrow portrait of this community, rather than viewing Muslims as they are: business owners, friends and neighbors whose presence is part of modern life."

Islamic Center Of America on July 17, 2014 in Dearborn, Michigan. Raymond Boyd/Getty

A Long Road Ahead

The challenges Muslim Americans face in popular culture in many ways mirror the political environment: The gains are real, increasingly visible and more prominent, but for now at least, still relatively modest—and, Muslim activists worry, too easily at risk of being erased.

They point out, for instance, that there's never been a Muslim in the U.S. Senate, elected as governor or appointed to a Cabinet position. Another major terrorist attack involving extremist Muslims, a successful White House comeback for Trump or the election of a similarly-minded candidate could once again sour public opinion or create new dangers.

"Trump was able to capitalize on bigotry, on ignorance and racism, on fear," said CAIR's Awad. "He mobilized it, weaponized it, made it official. His impact is still with us. And he might come back."

Still, the progress thus far has Muslim leaders cautiously optimistic and thirsting for more. Haeri hopes to see more taught in schools about Islam's history, noting the contributions of Muslim scientists and artists are absent from the education of most American children. Carson, the Indiana congressman, looks forward to the day he can donate to the first Muslim to run for president. Farsad just wants better roles to play. "I'm both ashamed and unashamed to admit that I have auditioned for the wife of a terrorist," she says. "That's what was available."

"We've been so underrepresented for so long, we're just working to even out the odds," Emgage's Alazayat says. "The question is not, 'Wow, look at how much we've done.' We should expect more."

[whatdoesshedotothem]

Friday 4 August 1837

6 5

11 5

fair with highisn wind and rain threatening clouds about – ready at 7 5 out – about – Edward setting the plinth of the new stoothing pillars in the north porch – off with A- at 7 50 to her tenants Bottomley at Shibden mill to canvass the votes of the 2 sons – the oldest from home – saw George – he would not vote at all – a simple looking man but said it in a way that shewed he would not be persuaded by A- his mother evidently for his not giving A- his vote – said what could they do – they had their trade to consider – A- said not much, but that she thought her tenants ought to vote on her side which would otherwise not be represented at all – the young man looked sullen – I said ‘well! you have refused your landlady the only favour she has ever asked I hope you will not have an opportunity of refusing her many more favours’ – he answered ‘I hope not’ – very well, said I, when you have a favour to ask what will you expect – I heard no answer and A- and I wished good morning and came away, she determined to quit the people – and I quite agreeing she was right – a little rain as we went – a slight small drop or 2 as we returned but the wind blew it off – back at 9 – A- very poorly on setting off – better – not tired – on returning – breakfast at 9 5 and paid Charles Howarth 2 bills (did not see him) in full I suppose of all he has against me at present unless there be some pit work i.e. paid him for Hilltop repairs to the 2 cottages and for work done here up to the 24th ultimo inclusive – and then wrote the above of today, and off with Mawson at 10 25 who had waited for me sometime (had sent him to George R-

SH:7/ML/E/20/0103

for his vote, and to Simeon Shaw – the latter had given it us, and GR- gone off with Mr. James Norris to vote – had sent M- off as I set off with A- then at 10 25 just as I was setting off with M- came Messrs. Barber junior of Southowram and George Naylor and went down to them – Longish explanation of circumstances under which I considered GN- as a bonâfine tenant at ��50 per annum and had paid me 30/. in full of that rent for the last year – talked over Abraham Hemingway – GN- thought I could manage a road without troubling Mr. Holland – talked over Dodgson – GN- said he would have voted for us but for his wife – said I was very sorry – for that I was determined to have all my tenants vote for my side the question and those who could not make up their minds so to do must provide themselves with farms elsewhere – GN- to try D- again and Mr. B- to go for Abraham H- then went into Mr. George Robinson who had been waiting sometime – very civil – mentioned my having omitted sending him a notice to quit – found he had given his vote very willingly – but Mr. Schofield had annoyed him – he thought he (S-) did our cause no harm – then talked of the other things – mentioned the Northgate tap – he (GR-) mentioned a son-in-law of Hopkinson the spirit merchant at H-x as a likely person – very sober and active and steady – I mentioned Mr. Farrar the spirit merchant – GR- thought nobody could be better – it was now 12 – went to see for Mawson – he had had no breakfast and was gone home – just going out when A- came to say Mr. Outram was here, and she had just had  a note to ask her to go to William Hirst moor [?], and she was going – Mr. O- had promised her his vote – I advised A-‘s having a chaise to follow her to bring back WH – A- wrote the direction and as soon as I had seen her ride off I sent John Booth to Miss Jenkinson for a chaise, and supposing (as proved true) she might not let us have one, folded the direction adding ‘a chaise to be sent for Miss Walker to William Hirst’ (out-lane bar in Stainland) – Friday 5 August 1837 12 ½ pm’ – and sent this direction etc as an unsealed note to ‘John Dearden Esquire junior committee room White swan’ – John on presenting the note saw the fly with William Wilkinson sent off immediately and I returned to Mr. Outram and sat with him till saw him off (very infirm – hardly able to get his paralytic leg over on to horseback) at 1 ¼ - he wishes A- to go over sometime before the 20th instant – Mr. O- just gone, and I with Robert + 5 pulling up the dry arches (Sam Booth and another fencing up against Mr. Carr) when Mr. Thomas Edwards called upon A- asked to whom I had the pleasure of speaking (I saw him walking his horse towards us) and I went up to see if I was wanted, and finding who he was shook hands with him and was very civil (he seemed to think so) and on my asking him said he call again about 12 tomorrow – going away on Sunday – then went with Robert Mann to the platform (2 of Mawson’s men there as yesterday cutting sods) and set out where Robert and c° were to being on Monday leveling and lowering for the Incline etc – sauntered back with Thomas Pearson – on reaching my own back Lodge gate found Messrs. Barber and Hemingway looking for me – told H- to give us his vote – I would not be humbugged by Mr. Holland or anyone – I would stand between Abraham H- and Mr. Holland as tot her road – AH- very well satisfied and went off to the polling booth – then a few minutes with Mr. Gray and Robert and c° Parkinson + 2 paving the barn – and then about 5 off to Hipperholme quarry – in going stopt at the wheel-race a little while with Joseph Mann – then to the Amos and Robert Wharton at the pentrough quarry – and there ½ hour and sauntered back by Lower brea lane (3 of Mark Hepworth’s carts to bring rag footings from Hipperholme quarry tomorrow) and the meer along the wood-road to the hay barn – James and Robert Sharpe and 3 or 4 lads there – if these 2 men stick to it James S- owned it would be beyond the end of this month before they could finish the no great deal that seems to want doing – back by the Lodge about 6 – A- just returned – sometime with Mr. Gray – I might preserve one of the dry arches if I chose – no! on consideration thought it not worth the sacrifice of the stones – came in to A- she had dexterously put her tenant (William Hirst) into the fly, in the faces of Mr. Whitley and another yellow, and saw the driver drive off at a famous rate – she called at Cliff Hill in returning – Mrs. AW- seemed pleased at the adventure and dexterous management – sometime in the west tower – the oak stairs up all but 7 – will not be finished till Tuesday night, and the stair-case to be lined (with oak) and completed by and by – the north porch stoothing put up today by this evening – dinner at 7 10 – coffee – skimmed over the newspaper – after all our [exertions] close of the pool at H- at 4 pm

Morfuth 1275

Strickland 1245

Wortley 629!

A- and I came upstairs at 9 ½ - at which hour F50° fine day – till 10 ½ wrote all but the 1st 19 lines of today – Letter tonight from the tax office respecting my landtax redemption

[orbemnews]

For Creators, Everything is for Sale A rash of new start-ups are making it easier for digital creators to monetize every aspect of their life — down to what they eat, who they hang out with and who they respond to on TikTok. Tens of millions of people around the globe consider themselves creators, and the creator economy represents the “fastest-growing type of small business,” according to a 2020 report by the venture capital firm SignalFire. But as the market gets more and more competitive — and the platforms and their algorithms remain unreliable — creators are devising new, hyper-specific revenue streams. One comes in the form of NewNew, a start-up in Los Angeles, that describes its product as creating a “human stock market.” On the app, fans pay to vote in polls to control some of a creator’s day-to-day decisions. For example, a creator can use NewNew to post a poll asking which sweater they should wear today, or who they should hang out with and where they should go. Fans purchase voting power on NewNew’s platform to participate in the polls, and with enough voting power, they get to watch their favorite influencer live out their wishes, like a real life choose-your-own-adventure game. “Creators are burning out, but their fans want more and more,” said Jen Lee, 25, the founder of a popular creator economy community on Discord. “By monetizing each aspect of their life, they can extract value from everyday interactions.” Courtne Smith, the founder and chief executive of NewNew, said the company was “similar to the stock market” in that “you can buy shares, which are essentially votes, to be able to control a certain level of a person’s life.” “We’re building an economy of attention where you purchase moments in other people’s lives, and we take it a step further by allowing and enabling people to control those moments,” she said. The platform began beta testing with a select group over the last week, and several TikTok and YouTube stars have already begun earning money. “Have you ever wanted to control my life?” Lev Cameron, 15, a TikToker with 3.3 million followers, asked in a recent video posted to NewNew. “Now is your time. You can actually control things I do throughout the day and vote on it and then I will show you if I end up doing the stuff you voted for.” He proceeded to ask his fans what game he should play with friends: dodgeball or catch. In the background of the video his friends shouted “catch!” Alas, 78 percent of fans voted dodgeball. (Mr. Cameron said he didn’t really want to play dodgeball because it could damage a fence in the yard, but the fans had spoken.) “When they vote, I do the thing they vote for,” he said. “It’s not like, oh, I secretly do the other thing. It’s surprising how many people vote and what they vote for.” (Mr. Cameron has also allowed fans to dictate what he watches, what video games he plays and the name of his pet hamster.) Ms. Smith said the platform reserves the right to ban users who post polls that are offensive, inappropriate, dangerous or break the law. While the beta test is still invite-only for creators, Ms. Smith hopes that eventually everyone — from celebrities to average people — will be able to leverage it to monetize their lives. “Sure, it’s fun to control a famous influencer or celebrity, but it’s honestly just as entertaining to control someone you go to school with, or your boyfriend’s ex-girlfriend, or an author planning their next sci-fi novel, or a beauty founder creating their next makeup palette,” she said. “It doesn’t matter how boring you think you are, there’s someone out there who would find your life interesting to the point that they’re willing to pay.” Comments, Collaborations and Crypto Well-known creators who aren’t yet monetizing the minutia of their lives are still making money on everyday digital interactions. (Why comment, like, or share someone’s photos or videos if you aren’t getting paid?) Recently, a platform called PearPop has become popular for allowing fans to pay for interactions with their idols on social media. For $250, for instance, the TikTok star Griffin Johnson will comment on your video. If you don’t have $250 to spare, you can offer your best bid. “Monetizing your social presence has traditionally only been accessible to those with a large following that can secure big brand deals,” said Cole Mason, the co-founder and chief executive of PearPop. “This is no longer the case. The idea for PearPop democratizes creator monetization by providing something that makes a lot of sense for creators with 10,000 followers and 10 million followers alike.” Collaborations between stars (and up-and-coming creators) are also increasingly more easily monetized. Another new tool, called Stir, is seeking to help creators split money for videos they make together. “We think the future of creator monetization is collaboration,” said Joseph Albanese, the C.E.O. and a founder of Stir. “We let creators take any place they make money, whether it’s a YouTube video or Shopify store, and split the revenue with other creators.” The crypto world has also proved enticing for creators looking to monetize interactions. Rally.io, a crypto platform, allows creators to start their own digital currency in order to build independent economies with their fans. Fans can purchase the creator’s currency and use it to unlock exclusive or unreleased content. The Clubhouse star Bomani X has begun offering his own $BOO Coin currency and the Twitch creator FanHOTS has introduced $FAN Coin; fans who hold the coin can use it to choose which character he will play in online games. And then there is the world of nonfungible tokens (NFTs), which are pieces of digital art and media that live online. Though anyone can see an NFT on the internet — buyers do not get to “own” anything in a physical sense — they have become a fast-growing market. The pieces of digital media function as rare collectibles. The YouTube star Logan Paul recently sold $5 million worth of NFTs. “There’s a potential to earn a huge amount of money,” said Joshua Wanders, 30, a YouTube creator with more than 8.7 million subscribers. “It’s pretty much 100 percent profit driven by mania.” Last week, Mr. Wanders and four other creators released photos of their feet as NFTs. (What makes these images NFTs is blockchain technology, which can be used as an immovable record to designate authenticity in ownership.) The creators uploaded their feet photos onto an auction site and livestreamed the bidding. The livestream was also monetized. Zack Honarvar, 27, the founder of the talent management firm One Day Entertainment, said that he and Airrack, a creator he manages, have been playing around with using NFTs to give fans “shares” of a YouTube video. “Before the video goes up, we could break it into, say, 10 clips, then mint those 10 clips as NFTs,” Mr. Honarvar said. “When someone buys that NFT, that person would be entitled to a one tenth split in ad revenue from the video. By buying in advance you’d become a shareholder of that video.” The goal would be to use NFTs to create a wholly decentralized fan-owned and fan-operated YouTube channel. “A YouTube channel in which the fans can dictate everything,” Mr. Honarvar said. The only hurdle is the Securities and Exchange Commission, which does not allow NFT sellers to guarantee revenue as part of ownership. Still, to Mr. Wanders and other creators, these schemes feel safer than building businesses solely on social platforms, which can prove fickle. Their algorithms and community standards can change, as can their monetization structures — not to mention, they could go out of business. “With the internet and YouTube, there’s always the concern of being demonetized and having your channel canceled,” he said, “so people are always looking for alternative ways to earn money. You never know where the platforms are going to take you at the end of the day.” Pay to Play, but for Creator Drama As creators concoct new ways to monetize their followings, Elijah Daniel, 26, a creator in Los Angeles, is helping followers put a price on the creators. On Friday, he launched the Clout Market, which is a little bit like trading cards, but of influencers. The Clout Market offers 10 million NFTs representing top creators including Trisha Paytas, James Charles, Bryce Hall, David Dobrik and Jeffree Star. The NFTs are designed to look like Pokemon cards with pixelated images of each creator. The cards carry parody names for legal purposes, Mr. Daniel said, so Tana Mongeau’s card reads “Tana Mongoose.” The price for these items is determined by the creator’s relevance online. Mr. Daniel worked with a developer to create a dynamic pricing structure that adjust prices in real time. (It pulls from social and analytics platforms data.) If a creator loses or gains followers or trends on Twitter, the price of the NFT Mr. Daniel created for them will go up or down. Mr. Daniel said the goal of selling these NFTs is to let fans monetize the drama surrounding their favorite influencers. “A lot of fans will buy these for support,” he said, “haters will buy them to bet on people’s downfall.” “Influencers and social media stars are making so much money off drama and scandals,” he said, “and most of them are fake. This is a way for the fans who follow along so heavily with everything to be able to invest in those scandals and make money too.” He added: “If we have to go through another scandal, we all better be getting paid for it.” “This is the first-wave of creators adopting new technologies to connect with an already engaged fan-base,” said Jeremiah Owyang, a creator adviser to Rally.io. “But instead of it being one-way and solely transactional,” he said, “the fans are as much part of the creation experience as the creator.” Source link Orbem News #Creators #sale

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Today’s debate will center around this tweet from a political analyst:

Everybody always writes columns about why Democrats or Republicans should pay more attention to issue X. It would be actually way more useful if people wrote columns about what they should pay *less* attention to.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 2, 2018

So, we’re gonna try to do what Nate suggests here. The Republican side of this basically comes down to one person, President Trump — whatever he tweets or talks about stands in for the GOP’s message — so we’ll focus on Democrats today. In short: What topics/issues should Democrats focus on and what should they not focus on to set themselves up for the most success in this year’s midterm elections?

To give us a baseline, I made a list of topics by combining the options in Gallup’s “most important problem” survey and Pew Reseach Center’s “policy priorities” poll and then adding and subtracting stuff as I saw fit. (It’s surprisingly hard to make a list like this, so feel free to add stuff. Also, some of these obviously overlap.)

We have 100 “attention points” to divvy up between 34 topics. I’m going to unveil how I allocated them and then you all can refine and adjust. Ready?

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): Ready player one.

Ready aim fire.

Ready or not here I come.

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): Yup.

micah:

Corruption in government — 20

Trump’s behavior — 12

Situation with Russia — 10

Health care — 8

Civil rights — 8

Gap between rich and poor — 6

Immigration — 5

#MeToo — 5

Race relations/racism — 5

Elections/election reform — 5

Guns/gun control — 4

Criminal justice/police — 4

Environment/pollution — 2

Drugs — 2

Terrorism — 1

ISIS — 1

Trade — 1

Education — 1

Economy in general — 0

Unemployment/jobs — 0

Federal budget deficit/federal debt — 0

Taxes — 0

Corporate corruption — 0

National security — 0

Crime/violence — 0

Situation with North Korea — 0

Defense — 0

Abortion — 0

The media — 0

Care for the elderly/Medicare — 0

Social Security — 0

Energy — 0

Russia investigation — 0

Regulations — 0

I’ve thought this through carefully.

But, anything jump out to you as “WTF are you thinking, Micah!!!!”?

natesilver: Lol that’s a lot of issues

clare.malone: At first glance, the Russia stuff should get less attention.

natesilver: And this is purely for electoral expediency? Like, suppose I think criminal justice issues are really important, but not something that would influence the midterms much?

micah: Yes. To be clear, this is NOT importance. It’s just “best electoral message.” It’s not our job to tell people what issues should be important to them.

natesilver: OK, I think your list is really terrible then. Like, I literally think if I randomly assigned points, it would be better than your list.

micah: Make your argument!

clare.malone: Corruption seems like a great issue to run on. So I definitely agree with that receiving a substantial number of points. It’s also naturally tied to “gap between rich and poor,” which should get more points.

natesilver: First of all, you gave the most points to the vaguest stuff: corruption in government and Trump’s behavior.

clare.malone: They’re all vague, Nate!

micah: I mean, here was my general thinking: Given the news environment, you need to really hammer something to have it break through. So this list reflects what I think Democrats should hammer, and then I gave some points to a bunch of issues that are more definitional to the Democratic Party. To the party’s brand, that is.

But, Nate, you need to make an argument about where the points should go! You’re doing exactly what you criticized in that tweet.

natesilver: They should go to health care and to the Russia investigation — those are the most obvious ones. Assuming the Russia investigation includes firing the FBI director.

micah: It does. But so do other categories.

natesilver: Those two things — the health care debate and firing James Comey — are what moved Trump’s approval rating the most so far (down). I think health care needs 20 points, minimum.

micah: But given that Republicans mostly failed to pass a health care bill, can Democrats really campaign on that?

natesilver: Democrats have to talk about taxes more than ZERO, certainly — otherwise that cedes too much ground to Republicans. You’ve already seen the tax bill become more popular (although it’s still slightly unpopular on net) because Democrats have stopped talking about it.

Gun control probably needs to receive more than 4 measly points — it might not help that much with swing voters but will likely be an important way to rally the Democratic base and keep the GOP on its heels.

Although it seems to be going better for Trump recently, “situation with North Korea” probably deserves more than 0 points.

clare.malone: And we should clarify that the Russia investigation is separate from “situation with Russia.”

natesilver: Yeah, I don’t think much attention should be given to the geopolitical situation in Russia.

micah: So, here’s my argument on Russia: I think Democrats should mostly leave the Russia investigation alone — better to have special counsel Robert Mueller (a by-the-book Republican) be Trump’s antagonist on that than Chuck Schumer. But they should still try to keep it in the news, and they can do that with a focus on Trump “taking a soft line” (paywalled) on Russia internationally.

clare.malone: eh

natesilver: I feel like you’re overthinking this.

micah: That’s not an argument.

natesilver: You talk about Trump firing the FBI director — that’s what you talk about. And he’ll probably fire or pardon other people by the time we get to November.

Like, let’s say Trump fires Mueller — how many attention points does the Russia investigation get then?

clare.malone: But corruption in the administration is a really great way to play off the behavioral issues (like firing Comey, like tweeting) that plague the Republican Party of Trump.

And you can trickle down and say, “Look what a Republican Congress is putting up with in this administration.”

natesilver: Isn’t corruption pretty priced into voters’ views of Trump already? It doesn’t seem as “sexy” as Russia.

clare.malone: But what about Trump’s Cabinet and all its ethical problems? Didn’t he say he would drain the swamp?

natesilver: Maybe you can sorta make the argument that he didn’t drain the swamp, sure.

micah: See, I think Trump firing Comey and/or Mueller fits into corruption/behavior. Stay away from the collusion/interference in the 2016 election part of the Russia story, and weave Comey/Mueller/Cabinet shenanigans, etc., into a “Trump is corrupt against everyday people” narrative.

Nate, maybe you should give your own list?

natesilver: Well now we’re just debating semantics.

micah: This is a debate about messaging! It’s all semantics!

natesilver: OK here’s my list:

Health care — 20

Russia — 20

Gun control — 10

Election reform/civil rights — 10

Rich/poor gap — 10

Trump corruption — 10

Taxes — 5

Immigration — 5

North Korea — 5

#MeToo — 5

To explain a couple of these: Rich/poor gap is the Democrats’ best frame for talking about the economy. And I think election reform is a really important issue in the long run electorally for Democrats.

micah: What’s their message on health care?

natesilver: That almost the entire Republican Congress voted to repeal (suddenly-now-popular) Obamacare. And that Republicans will try again if they make gains in the Senate, etc. (Which could very well be true, BTW.)

micah: But they failed. (Mostly.)

Also, I think any time Democrats spend on the economy is fighting on GOP terrain.

natesilver: Which makes it an awkward issue for Republicans, because they have to promise their voters that they won’t fail again.

On the economy — I think you’re entirely neglecting the importance of defense.

micah: National defense?

The Department of Defense?

natesilver: No dude like DEEEEE-fence, not da-FENCE.

micah: Like the border wall?

clare.malone: So, my problem with your list, Nate, is that you give basically four issues even billing — gun control, election reform/civil rights, rich/poor gap and Trump corruption all get the same number of points.

One of those is going to have to lead, right? And I think the message of Trump corruption/propagating the gap between the rich and the poor should lead.

Those need … 15 points or so.

micah: Clare is right.

clare.malone: They’re more effective messages than gun control.

micah: Clare, you should give your list.

natesilver: I don’t think you’re giving enough weight to the fact that Democrats are super motivated by gun control right now. Especially young Democrats. So it’s a way to engender more turnout.

micah: I guess my main question is sorta: How valuable is a middle-tier issue?

Firing Comey, firing Mueller, attacking private companies, saying that we’ll send troops to the border — general instability and “besmirching” the office of the president.

natesilver: OK, but that’s like seven different things.

natesilver: Here’s my new list: Trump 80, GOP Congress 20.

clare.malone: Here’s how I would order them, without points:

Corruption in government

Gap between rich and poor

Regulations

Trump’s behavior

Health care

Race relations/racism

Guns/gun control

micah: You’re cheating!

clare.malone: OK, let me point one thing out: I moved regulations up. Democrats could really exploit that and talk about things that the Republican White House is allowing to get through: getting rid of EPA regulations that prevent corporations from polluting or getting rid of financial regulations — a move that might benefit Trump Cabinet members — etc.

natesilver: Wait … REGULATIONS? Are only Vox.com writers participating in the midterms?

micah: This chat is going off the rails. I’m inviting in Chad, FiveThirtyEight’s features editor, to save us …

chad (Chadwick Matlin, resident Micah antagonist): … at the risk of making this chat better, I have a question: Is there evidence about whether voters respond better to discrete events vs. the “aura” around a candidate/party? Russia, for example, is an aura issue, while corruption (depending on how you feel about various Cabinet officials’ actions) has discrete details to run against.

micah: To Chad’s point: I do think you’re wrong, Nate, that “corruption” is vague.

Part of the appeal there is that it has a lot of specifics …

Scott Pruitt. Ben Carson. Ivanka Trump. Jared Kushner. Etc.

And Clare … WE STILL NEED NUMBERS!

clare.malone: uuuuugh

Fine …

Corruption in government — 30

Gap between rich and poor — 20

Regulations — 5 (but it goes with the previous two, so it’s staying in this order)

Trump’s behavior — 20

Health care — 15

Race relations/racism — 5

Guns/gun control — 5

micah: I can get aboard with this ^^^

chad: How quickly you forget Tom Price, Micah.

micah: PRICE!

chad: And Steve Mnuchin.

Again, at the risk of grounding this chat: Do we know how much the “drain the swamp” message resonated for Trump? And WHO it resonated with? Because if it were reluctant Trump voters or independents, then perhaps Democrats can flip it and use it against the president.

clare.malone: That’s what I’m saying!

I think you could swing a portion of the Obama-Trump voters on that one.

natesilver: My guess is it resonated the most with relatively low-information voters — who are the sort of people who are less likely to turn out in the midterms either way.

micah: Well … this is from the 2016 exit poll:

chad: So maybe the better way to assign points is to look at what motivates the stay-at-home Democrats (the activists are coming out no matter what) and what wedge issues can be exploited among the indies and old-party Republicans.

natesilver: I mean, I think y’all are overcomplicating this.

As someone pointed out on Twitter the other day [Editor’s note: It was Vox’s Matt Yglesias], there’s currently a gap between Trump’s popularity and the generic congressional ballot — Trump’s numbers are worse than Republicans’.

Trump has a net approval rating of -12 points right now among likely and registered voters. Republicans, meanwhile, are more like a -7 or a -8 on the generic ballot — and almost all of those polls are also among registered voters — depending on when you look.

So from a very high level, the strategy is probably just to talk about Trump, and the things that most moved the needle on Trump last year were health care and Comey.

And then on top of that, talk about some of the things people don’t like about the GOP Congress — that Republicans are only out for the rich.

Then some gun control and #MetToo because those are important issues to excite the Democratic base.

And some stuff about voting rights because that’s a really important issue for Democrats in the long term and is a good way to frame civil rights discussions.

That’s my strategy.

[transientpetersen]

A little something about morality. Enough of my life has been spent working with mathematical structures and other theoretical constructs that the patterns of thought trained for those modes have bled through to other parts of my life. Morality is a core facet of life and its been shaped by the math just as much as the rest.

Generating complete mathematical proofs taught me more about skepticism than any other experience in my life. So often on the road to proving a theorem you will encounter the thought "it would be really convenient for this logical structure if fact X held". You can see how all the pieces fall in to place given the solidity of X and X probably has a certain internal plausibility and if X just held in truth then you could move on from this proof to something more relaxing (you may or may not have an unhealthy amount of animosity toward the proof built up at this point). It's tempting to write your first line "it's trivial to show X holds", sketch out the rest, and hope you've kicked up enough dust to pass - I've encountered my fair share of "proofs" using that structure. The sticking point is, it is mathematical maturity not to take the easy route of hope and instead to demonstrate the rigour required to generate a complete sound answer. And there's a reason for this. Your intuition in this area is untrained and often you discover (forging ahead) that you cannot prove X. After a lot of sweat and a pinch of luck you discover the counterexample or contradiction inherent in X that renders it false - the true proof proceeds along other lines.

This general lesson is useful. Convenience or wishing will not make a thing true and intuition should remain tempered with humility. This was actually one of the nails in the coffin for my religious inclinations. So many doubts and questions are answered if religion X is correct in its foundational claims but that has no bearing on whether X is true (only that its comforting). If you're honest with yourself then you cannot use that reasoning from most convenient world.

The next lesson comes from complexity theory. Sure complexity theory is an offshoot of the study of algorithms and so carries the faint stigma of applied mathematician to the theoretician but, stigma aside, it is a deep field full of interesting structure. Far more than I can render here so let's focus on one part. Complexity theory separates problems into an infinite leveled hierarchy depending on how hard the problem is to solve. In general, a problem is on level n+1 of the hierarchy if you can solve it when given access to a magic box that instantly solves any problem on level n. This simple picture is somewhat complicated by the fact that we don't know yet whether there are truly infinite levels or whether the structure collapses to some finite number of sets. This uncertainty is a source of some unease within the community.

Personally, I hold that the hierarchy is infinite because I believe that any universe where this is not true is simply not perverse enough to resemble our own. If my faction is correct then it is a point of mathematical correctness that there problems where its strictly easier to recognize a solution than it is to generate one (that one might also generalize, good writing and good editing are parallel skills but the first seems strictly harder than the second). By way of canonical example, its easier to verify given variable assignments to any random boolean equation than it is to generate those boolean assignments from scratch (verily, humans must earn their truth assignments by the sweat of their brow). This is the lesson I want you to learn from this section: when you see someone present an argument or a position and you compare it to your world view in a away that makes the argument seem both completely revolutionary and completely obvious, you have to step back and give them credit for locating that idea in the first place. This is a non-trivial amount of work. Conversely, when you recognize a particular solution to a general problem, give yourself a pat on the back because you've done something real.

An aside here, I realize that the spirit of the second part clashes somewhat with the lesson of the first part. All I'll say is that it all rounds down to humility and a conviction that issues we don't already recognize as easy almost certainly reduce to something intractable.

Let's talk about solvable. Wait, first a second aside - this is the true power of quantum algorithms. There are methods to use the uncertain nature of quantum bits to to quickly search the entire space of possible solutions and with high probability locate the exact solution to a given problem. It feels like magic and will revolutionize our world when engineering catches up to theory.

Let's talk about solvable. In particular, what do you do when the problem you wish to solve lies in one of the higher levels of the hierarchy, the levels we can't reach? Unless you're prepared to spend ungodly amounts of time on it or you get insanely lucky then you don't get to know an exact answer to the particulars of the problem. You *must* reframe it in a way that allows for an approximate answer, in effect transforming the question into a cousin living lower on the hierarchy. You're being forced to compromise, the universe is built to make you use heuristics. This is important - it's not about heuristics being quicker, it's about exact methods not being able to give you answers at all. Integer programming looks a lot like linear programming but it is in fact significantly more difficult in the general case. The structure of the universe means you must think in probabilities and in error bars and ponder trade-offs, in short the judgment no one asks of an oracle.

An event occurs in front of two of us. I know what I witnessed. And I'm almost certain that you didn't blink. And it's highly probable that you know I witnessed it. And its pretty likely that you think I think you witnessed it. And so on, with a little bit more uncertainty creeping in at each moment of recursion. This sad state of affairs is fine for the most part because usually the stakes are so low. But ask yourself how much more you'd care about common knowledge if your life depending on my having witnessed precisely the same event as you. We hear about that failure mode in the context of criminal trials all the time. Building shared knowledge requires enough work that it's used in the bureaucratic filter for asylum seekers and green card applicants. When you see one person able to get a group to agree on one particular interpretation of facts, remember that you just witnessed something hard. True common knowledge is infinite levels of recursion in the stack and it is impossible. For every situation, there's a point where the probability on the next level is too low for confidence, it's just a question of whether you calculate that far. And the probabilities deteriorate faster the more people you add.

We started with some fairly basic math truisms and moved through some hand-wavy logic constructions, let's end with something obscure. Communication is not free. If I want to learn about something that's happening far away or coordinate some communal action, I have to rely on messages that take multiple hops to reach their destination. We still have not mastered error correcting codes for common speech, much less methods for achieving better clarity in communication (case in point, how nonsensical most of this post reads), so your messages are going to get altered en-route. Beyond that, you're still the victim of the network. The effort/uncertainty of message sending defines a finite limit in the number of hops that we can use and still feel confident in the response. There are certain pathological graphs in which the vast majority of nodes believe thing one but when polling only their k-distant neighbors will come to believe that thing two is actually the majority belief. This is beyond government censorship or Overton windows, this is about never being able to know whether your mental image of society is accurate or if you've just been deceived by the structure of your communication.

It's the end and you're feeling cheated because I didn't say much about morals despite promises in my very first sentence. Morality as we understand it today is a bunch of ad hoc, best effort responses to a set of questions that were poorly defined in their original contexts and which haven't altered to match the multiple ways our social world has changed. If you've read the above then you realize solutions are hard and solutions to problems with many parts are harder. Social solutions addressing problems involving many people are worse and pro-social solutions are monumental. Answers are always going to rely on guesswork, methods need to be able to be executed under uncertainty, and if you think a general code of behavior is easy then you're wrong. You must cultivate judgment because the universe is not built to let you offload your thinking to some perfect algorithm.

[armeniaitn]

An Armenian Embassy in Tel Aviv: Markar Melkonian Responds to Readers

New Post has been published on https://armenia.in-the.news/economy/an-armenian-embassy-in-tel-aviv-markar-melkonian-responds-to-readers-27094-29-06-2020/

An Armenian Embassy in Tel Aviv: Markar Melkonian Responds to Readers

What follows is Markar Melkonian’s response to those who commented on his June 18 article entitled An Armenian Embassy in Tel Aviv: Selling Out Armenia, Stabbing Our Allies in the Back, and Serving Our Enemies.

Some of the comments are shot through with confusion, misrepresentation, and inaccuracy.

Indeed, this seems so obvious that I had hoped that other commenters would step forward to rebut them. Checking back after several days, though, it seems that no one has stepped up to challenge. By default, then, the duty appears to have fallen to me. The embassy decision is inextricable from larger regional issues, and the following response is an opportunity at least to bring that point home. I will take a breath and try to be brief.

But how does one respond to comments that are packed full of Fox News rubbish about “backwardness,” bloody dictators,” “the Arab Street,” and all the rest of it? I reserve the right not to waste my time on willful ignorance, and I do so without conceding any of their points.

One of the commenters wonders out loud whether the opinion piece is satire. It might well seem like satire, to one who is accustomed to the high level of sophistication and nuance that is typical of public discourse among Armenians. That same commenter has come up with the informative idea that she is just “pro-Armenian,” and as such she is not concerned with Iran or Israel. And with that, she proceeds to ignore all the arguments and evidence that have just been presented against the embassy decision.

Let us review: the decision has compromised Armenia’s security; it has further destabilized the region; it will further isolate the country diplomatically and economically; it will deal a crippling blow to diplomacy relating to Artsakh, and it has fed into Turkey’s propaganda offensive in Lebanon. Rita then writes that, “We need to think about our survival. Armenia’s foreign policy should be based on pragmatism.” As if those very words are not an argument against the embassy decision! 

Too many people throw the word “pragmatism” around like a playground taunt. Very briefly: One cannot make sense of the words pragmatic or pragmatism without reference to a given purpose: policy x counts as pragmatic to the extent that it is conducive to purpose y. If the embassy decision is pragmatic, then what purpose does it advance? Let us review the possibilities.

1 – Will the embassy decision contribute to stability in the Middle East? Another commenter wrote that Armenia “should not be sucked into conflicts that don’t concern us.” But the embassy decision does exactly that, further compromising Armenia’s security and further destabilizing the larger region. Recent years have demonstrated that appeasement of Israel promotes more aggression. Some of us understood this long ago, and events have born us out. Who today doubts that Israel has been trying for years to drag the USA into a war against Iran? If you care at all about Armenia, then you damn well better be concerned about Iran.

Several of the commentators write as though opening an Armenian embassy is an unremarkable, unobjectionable, neutral act.

But let me repeat: Armenia has established embassies in fewer than one-quarter of the member states of the United Nations. Moreover, the embassy decision came on the heels of: continuing annexations in the West Bank; the shooting deaths of hundreds of unarmed protesters in the Gaza Strip since March 2018 alone; the Trump administration’s official approval of Israel’s annexation of Syria’s Golan Heights; Jarod Kushner’s “Deal of the Century” debacle; the Knesset’s adoption in 2018 of Israel’s theocratic and apartheid Nation-State Bill; America’s certification of the entire city of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel; and imminent further expulsions and annexations in the West Bank. In the face of these developments, the embassy decision has sent a clear message throughout the region. We have already seen that it has played right into Erdogan’s hands when it comes to extending Ankara’s influence in Lebanon–and Armenians of that country are already suffering the consequences.

2 – Will the embassy decision reduce Armenia’s economic isolation? Clearly this is not the case: if one does not wish to review decades of trade, energy, technology and transportation ties with Iran, then one might at least take a look at the map.

3 – Will the embassy decision reduce Armenia’s diplomatic isolation? I have already mentioned the fact that the real effect of this decision will be quite the opposite. 

4 – Does the embassy decision enhance Armenia’s military preparedness? Militarily, the Republic of Armenia is on the tactical defensive: to achieve its strategic goals it must continue to defend its borders. Russia possesses some of the most effective defensive weapons systems on earth, and these systems have been developed and tested over the decades to defeat U.S., Turkish, and Israeli offensive systems. By expanding relations with Israel, Armenia thereby further limits its access to the most advanced Russian defense technology.

5 – Will it put Armenia in a better position to defend its property and interests in Jerusalem? Over the course of the past two decades, we have witnessed the ROA stand by passively, while formerly thriving Armenian communities in the Middle East have been decimated. By joining the Coalition of the Willing, the ROA actively participated in the destruction of the 30,000 member Armenian community in Iraq, and helped to set the stage for the destruction of the prosperous, thriving 130,000 member communities in Syria. Armenian diplomats have not even publicly protested while their “partner” and its jihadi allies were blasting Armenian communities into rubble and burning them down to piles of ashes.

Since 1967, Zionist occupiers have crushed the once-thriving Armenian community in Palestine and stolen much of the real estate in the Armenian Quarter. Today, fewer than 800 Armenians are left in Jerusalem (2006 survey). This is what remains of a community that had perhaps 20,000 members before the Zionist occupation. Now, suddenly, we are supposed to believe that Yerevan is concerned about Armenian interests in Jerusalem. And it seems that the only way to secure those interests is to appease the oppressors of Palestinian Armenians, and the expropriators of Armenian property in the Holy Land.

There are, however, other ways to defend that property and those interests—if only Armenians would resolve to be more confrontational in the face of annexation, expropriation, and physical attack. Here’s one possible approach: the Armenian Assembly and the ANC—American organizations manned by American citizens–should make it clear that further expropriation and oppression of the Armenian community of Jerusalem, will be met with a full-on media campaign of announcements, communications with congressional offices, and conferences, to inform the American public of Israel’s anti-Christian actions.

The Friends of Israel understand very well something that the commenters do not: Israel depends for its fabled prosperity and military strength on the largesse of the American taxpayer (see, for example, John J . Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, The Israel Lobby, 2007). And they also know that, with every passing year, more and more Americans are fed up with Washington’s “special relationship” with Israel (see for example, the 22 April 2020 Gallup poll, “Marjority in the U.S. Again Support Palestinian Statehood, https://news.gallup.com/poll/293114/majority-again-support-palestinian-statehood.aspx).

The Boycott, Divest and Sanction movement enjoys widespread and increasing support from a rising generation of Americans, and just this week, Eliot Engel, a well-funded 16-year incumbent, was defeated in the democratic primary in New York’s 16th congressional district, in large part because of his pro-Israel stance. This is Israel’s Achille’s heel. Armenians need to summon the clarity and fortitude to take a more confrontational stance in the face of aggression against the Armenian Quarter. Our message to Israeli officialdom should be: Either you take your hands off of our property, our Church and our community, or this public relations campaign will join broader alliances and escalate.

Without much at all in the way of public discussion, the leaders of the Republic of Armenia have taken a step that will have serious long-term consequences for Armenia. The “Velvet Revolution” was supposed to have ushered in a new era of official transparency in Armenia. If it has done that, then the Prime Minister and the Foreign Ministry owe the people of Armenia an honest public explanation of the embassy decision.

A commenter writes that he is “curious to see what actual solutions Markar is suggesting.” The final section of the article, entitled “What to Do?” spells out exactly what actual solutions I am suggesting. Quoting: “revoke the embassy decision”; “rescind the embassy decision.”

Perhaps this bears repeating yet again, in full caps: RESCIND THE DECISION TO OPEN AN ARMENIAN EMBASSY IN TEL AVIV.

(Markar Melkonian is a teacher and writer.  His latest books are The Philosophy of Death Reader:  Cross-Cultural Readings on Immortality and the Afterlife (Bloomsbury Academic, 2019) and The Philosophy and Common Sense Reader:  Writings on Critical Thinking (Bloomsbury Academic, 2020).  His book The Wrong Train:  Notes on Armenia since the Counterrevolution (Sardarabad Press, 2020) is a selection of opinion pieces that have appeared in Hetq.am.  The Wrong Train should appear in Armenian translation later this year.)

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Hetq.

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[claremal-one]

What Are The X-Factors That Could Change The Results In Iowa?

Welcome to a special edition of FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Our last politics chat before the 2020 Democratic primary kicks off!! And we’re talking Election X factors! Or what things we should be looking at, besides the polls (and our forecast), that could affect who wins on Monday?

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): To me, in a race that is so close, the number of precincts in which a candidate is either ahead or falling short of the viability threshold – 15 percent at most caucus sites — seems like it could be really important for what happens on Monday. Because say, someone like Bernie Sanders, if his support is concentrated in more urban areas or college towns, does that mean someone like Joe Biden could get more delegate support because he has backing across more rural areas? I don’t know.

nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): Yeah, and related to that point: The polls only measure voters’ initial preferences. But caucusgoers are allowed to realign if their candidate doesn’t meet the viability threshold, and then, of course, the delegates awarded are based on that post-realignment total.

In other words, the polls can’t really tell us exactly how votes will translate into delegates. So it will matter whose support is distributed the most efficiently.

sarahf: (Quick side note: For the first time, raw vote tallies from the first and second alignments will be released publicly, as well as the state delegate equivalents that a candidate earns. In the past, the party only reported the delegate tallies.)

ameliatd (Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, senior writer): Well, and an interesting question along those lines, Geoffrey, is how much will turnout shape the final narrative? In the past, when raw vote totals weren’t released, candidates like Sanders didn’t have as much of an incentive to run up their numbers in places like college towns where they have lots of densely concentrated support. This year, that will be different, and it could make for some confusion when the delegate counts and the raw votes are in.

I’m also curious to see what kind of horse-trading will go on in the caucuses themselves!

geoffrey.skelley: Definitely true, Amelia. I’m looking forward to the possibility of a scenario where Sanders wins the post-realignment raw vote total, but Biden wins the delegate count.

ameliatd: That’s one of the things that makes caucuses so fascinating and unpredictable — people are literally trying to convince each other to join their side as it’s happening.

sarahf: And you’ll be there to see it in action, Amelia! That ought to be wild.

ameliatd: Yes! I will be on the ground at a precinct in Iowa City, which I think will be one of the hubs for a potential Warren/Sanders showdown. My Monday night is going to be full of drama.

sarahf: But play out that scenario you just mentioned, a little bit more, Geoff. How could it work that Sanders wins more votes, but Biden wins more delegates (and therefore Iowa)?

geoffrey.skelley: Basically, every precinct is worth a certain number of state delegate equivalents, which is used to determine delegate allocation for national delegates. So if you get particularly high turnout at a precinct near, say, the University of Iowa in Iowa City, Johnson County, that precinct’s value for delegate purposes is already set based on a calculation determined by the 2016 presidential and 2018 gubernatorial Democratic vote share in that precinct. So if Sanders gets like 500 of 600 voters there, it might have the same delegate value as Biden dominating in a different precinct with 150 voters if they are worth the same number of state delegate equivalents. In the 2016 caucuses, for instance, Hillary Clinton swept all 1.6 SDEs in a Waterloo, Iowa, precinct that had 141 people show up, while Sanders got 1.6 of 1.8 SDEs in an Iowa City precinct that had 646 participants. We can’t know what the “popular vote” was in those precincts in 2016 — that’s available for the first time this year — but the delegate value for the two candidates was pretty much the same, even though one precinct had far higher turnout.

nrakich: I’m curious — which of those measures will you guys be paying the most attention to?

sarahf: I mean … I find the whole “both sides could claim victory on caucus night” a bit disingenuous, or at the very least, there should be a heavy burden on the media to report it responsibly. Because you can’t claim victory from the pre-alignment vote total!! That’s not how caucuses work. (Now you can have quibbles with why Iowa caucuses in the first place sure, but this whole sowing confusion narrative bothers me. Let’s not sow confusion!)

nrakich: Why not, Sarah?

That’s the popular vote!

That’s how almost every other state does it, i.e., primary states.

It is the most small-d democratic.

sarahf: That’s true, but Iowa isn’t a primary state! And maybe caucuses should be banned for the reasons you outline (it is really time consuming to caucus), but it’s not like how the winner in Iowa is determined has changed. It’s still based on the number of state delegate equivalents a candidate wins, we’ll just get to see more inside the process, which as a journalist, I’m 100 percent in favor of. More data always, please.

But that means as journalists we have a responsibility to talk about the three different vote totals in the context of how they work within a caucus, e.g. don’t read too much into the pre-alignment vote, because this will change (not every candidate will have enough support to make it to the next round of voting). That vote is the most small-d democratic, as you say, but it’s also not how caucuses work, so we shouldn’t feed into that narrative! Although, I’m sure some candidates will. But whatever. Report the process; don’t sow confusion.

nrakich: My short argument for why the initial preference numbers are the most important is that they’re the best representation of how voters feel — kind of like a massive poll. The state delegate equivalents might matter more for delegate selection, but Iowa is a small state — the number of delegates a candidate gets there is less important than the momentum/vote of confidence he/she receives.

geoffrey.skelley: Right, Nathaniel — in fact, AAPOR (the American Association for Public Opinion Research) recommends that journalists compare poll results from this cycle to those pre-realignment numbers when considering the accuracy of polls.

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): Here’s a pulled-out question, not related to thresholds: Is there anything that could happen in this last weekend to sway things one way or the other for voters still on the bubble? Is it good for the Democrats that all these senators aren’t going to be in the Senate for a drawn-out impeachment trial after all?

ameliatd: I have to imagine, Clare, that the senators are pretty excited about the prospect of getting back to Iowa. They’ve had surrogates campaigning on their behalf, but having the actual candidate there seems like a much better recipe for firing up their supporters — and that enthusiasm can really matter in the caucuses.

clare.malone: Another x-factor to mention: Could some big-name establishment Democrat speak out against Sanders? That sort of stuff has been floating around the past couple of weeks in news stories. It’s the kind of thing you could see happening on a Sunday show or a cable interview over the weekend.

sarahf: I mean, that’s a great question. In theory, Iowa always has at least a few polling surprises, but it’s also kind of hard for me to see Buttigieg, Warren or Amy Klobuchar making a big comeback at this point.

I know, never say never. But it’s hard for me to see this path — don’t @ me!!

Someone from the Democratic establishment speaking out against Sanders, on the other hand … that could be

.

Except Democrats would be smart to not have the spokesperson be Hillary Clinton. I feel like that Hollywood Reporter story about that new documentary where she dished on Sanders, and what it was like working with him in Congress, just fired up his base more than it actually hurt him.

nrakich: I don’t know if any figure in the party is big enough to matter, unless their last name is Obama.

And I don’t think either of the Obamas is going to weigh in at this point.

Mayyyybe if Sanders wins the first few states and he becomes the favorite to win the nomination …

geoffrey.skelley: Which could definitely happen — if he wins Iowa, he’ll be favored in New Hampshire and probably Nevada, too.

ameliatd: It would make sense to me if it were that the big establishment figures were biding their time to see how Sanders does in Iowa, and holding their fire until then.

clare.malone: I think the polling surprise is a great point, Sarah.

And considering the big Des Moines Register poll didn’t drop this weekend, we’re kind of in the dark as to where things could be headed. Hazard any guesses on potential surprises?

sarahf: I mean, we expect a few polls later today, but I was surprised in this last week that Buttigieg and Warren didn’t see more of an uptick. If anything, Warren actually ticked down more in our forecast this week despite the endorsement from the Des Moines Register, which should have helped her at least somewhat in the polls.

If anything, Klobuchar has started to do better. Granted she only has a 3 percent chance of winning the most votes in Iowa, but that’s been an interesting development to me anyways.

I mean … if anyone other than Sanders and Biden are in the top two at the end of the night on Monday, that’s an x-factor, right?

ameliatd: It’s all because of Klobuchar’s hot dish, Sarah. Never doubt the power of tater tots!

sarahf: Lol, that article.

nrakich: Klobuchar doing well would be an x-factor because I’m not sure there is room for FIVE front-runners. If Klobuchar surges, in my mind, someone like Buttigieg would have to crater.

As a reminder, we have never seen more than three candidates get more than 15 percent (the threshold required to get delegates) in any state before.

geoffrey.skelley: Definitely agree that it would be surprising if Biden or Sanders were not in the top two, but that’s certainly a possibility. With voters’ second-choice picks being really important in Iowa, I don’t want to totally discount anyone in the top four from winning, or anyone in the top five — so Klobuchar, too — from ending up in second or third.

And right now, we have three polling above 15 percent in Iowa and Warren just under that at 14 percent. Plus, Klobuchar is now right at 10 percent in our polling average.

perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): In some ways, I wonder if the buzz about Sanders’s potential to win Iowa and that victory catapulting him to the nomination happened a week or so too early for him. And it allowed his opponents within the party to hit him fairly hard, with an argument (electability) that Democratic voters really care about.

clare.malone: Ooooh, I like this take.

Interesting fodder!

And the idea that a person can have a “week too early” surge seems like a very Iowa phenom.

nrakich: It’s amazing how the timing of an election can matter. Random choices like whether the Iowa caucuses were this week or last week can make a big difference in who potentially gets elected leader of the free world.

ameliatd: Well, and a scenario like that could be especially helpful for Biden is that his supporters are generally older and perhaps more likely to caucus, too — although some of those folks aren’t necessarily regular caucusgoers.

perry: Buttigieg is even trying to get former Republicans to go to the caucuses. Those people are not going to support Sanders or Warren as a second choice.

geoffrey.skelley: Actually, age is one of the big questions about the caucus electorate — some polls have people under 50 making up as much as 47 percent of the electorate, which would be good news for Sanders, while others have it much lower than that. This has ramifications for each candidate’s poll numbers, but especially Sanders and Biden because their support at the age poles (oldest and youngest) are opposite of one another.

sarahf: So OK, say Sanders doesn’t win — because as Perry says, he peaked too early — does that put him a few points behind Biden … and Warren? Is there still room for her to be thought of as a moderate alternative to Sanders?

Perry: If the turnout is screwed young, I think Bernie will win. He really needs the electorate to be younger.

geoffrey.skelley: If Warren remains viable in most places, that actually could be quite bad for Sanders. And that’s because she’s the one whose backers are most likely to pick Sanders as their second choice. As the most recent Iowa State/Civiqs poll showed, 33 percent of Warren backers picked Sanders as their second choice, whereas no more than 11 percent of the other leading candidates’ backers chose Sanders as their top second choice.

nrakich: I mean, not to be that guy, Sarah, but in 80 percent of simulations in our model, Sanders could do anything from surge to 43 percent of the vote to drop to 11 percent in Iowa. And yeah, if he falls that far, he could finish below several other candidates (for the record, Warren’s range of outcomes in the 80-percent confidence interval is 3 percent to 31 percent).

ameliatd: I’m also really curious as to what will happen in places like Iowa City, which Bernie won handily in 2016. Obviously, a lot of 2016 Sanders’s voters are already supporting other candidates. But is it possible that all of the sudden focus on Bernie actually energizes his young lefty supporters and juices turnout even more?

Or, to answer your question, Sarah, maybe the attacks on Bernie prompt some progressive folks — the people who actually live and work in college towns, not the students — to give Warren a second look.

geoffrey.skelley: Thing is, because each precinct has a pre-assigned value based on the 2016-2018 Democratic vote, how much you can gain from juiced turnout near college campuses could be limited if it’s in select precincts.

nrakich: Right, which is why the actual preferences of Iowa voters is all that matters

sarahf: Lol, what about the possibility for technical glitches and the fact that Iowa is kind of sort of going to be making it easier to caucus this time around?

Do you think that’s an x-factor at all?

ameliatd: I’m a little skeptical of whether the satellite caucuses are actually going to make things easier. There are not that many of them, and they’re mostly in the middle of the day or the evening.

Of course, there will be a caucus in Tblisi, Georgia, which could really be what gives one of the candidates their edge.

geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, you still have to gather for a couple hours in the evening. Not like having ~12 hours to show up for 20 minutes and cast a ballot.

ameliatd: Or drop your ballot in the mail!

geoffrey.skelley: So I’m not expecting turnout to be crazy high.

nrakich: I think the overarching thing to remember here is that caucuses are always going to be harder to vote in than primaries. This article, about how difficult it can be for people with physical disabilities to caucus, really stuck with me.

#BanTheCaucus

sarahf: OK, rapid fire, final X-factors going into Monday. What do you think is super important to keep an eye on? I still think there’s got to be some kind of polling surprise that we just don’t know about yet, or wasn’t caught because there were a lot less polls this time around. …

nrakich: I think it will be whether the media makes a big deal out of “so-and-so winning Iowa,” even if he or she wins by just a fraction of a percentage point. To me, that is better thought of as a tie, but the way cable news tends to frame things as winners and losers could have a real impact on the narrative of which campaign is surging and which is struggling going into New Hampshire.

For instance, if Warren and Biden effectively tie, I think it will be spun as a win for Warren but a loss for Biden, and I don’t think it should be.

geoffrey.skelley: Relatedly, I’m interested in the possibility of having super ambiguous results because we will have three different outcomes to look at — first preference, final preference and state delegate equivalents, the last of which actually determines delegate counts.

ameliatd: I’m going to be a broken record but — turnout! Who shows up, and where? Whose supporters are most jazzed up and enthusiastic? That’s something that’s harder to predict/see until the caucuses are actually happening.

perry: What I’m looking for, before Monday night, are any clear urgings from really prominent Democrats to not back Sanders. (House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gave clearly anti-Sanders remarks on Friday, but they didn’t get much attention and she didn’t use his name.) Also, I’m watching for some of the lower-tier candidates to point their supporters to all get behind a second-choice person. (This would not be done by the candidate or their top staffers directly, but more under the radar.) So would most Yang/Gabbard supporters get behind Sanders? Klobuchar backers to Biden? The most interesting questions to me are whether Warren supporters, in places where she is not viable, mostly go to Sanders and in places where Buttigieg is not viable, if his supporters mostly go to Biden.

from Clare Malone – FiveThirtyEight https://ift.tt/2UfQbSp

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[bigyack-com]

California Is Booming. Why Are So Many Californians Unhappy?

SAN FRANCISCO — Christine Johnson, a public-finance consultant with an engineering degree, was running for a seat on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. She crisscrossed her downtown district talking about her plans to stimulate housing construction, improve public transit and deal with the litter of “needles and poop” that have become a common sight on the city’s sidewalks.Today, a year after losing the race, Ms. Johnson, who had been in the Bay Area since 2004, lives in Denver with her husband and 4-year-old son. In a recent interview, she spoke for millions of Californians past and present when she described the cloud that high rent and child-care costs had cast over her family’s savings and future. “I fully intended San Francisco to be my home and wanted to make the neighborhoods better,” she said. “But after the election we started tallying up what life could look like elsewhere, and we didn’t see friends in other parts of the country experiencing challenges the same way.”California is at a crossroads. The state has a thriving $3 trillion economy with record low unemployment, a surplus of well-paying jobs, and several of the world’s most valuable corporations, including Apple, Google and Facebook. Its median household income has grown about 17 percent since 2011, compared with about 10 percent nationally, adjusted for inflation. But California also has a pernicious housing and homeless problem and an increasingly destructive fire season that is merely a preview of climate change’s potential effects. Corporations like Charles Schwab are moving their headquarters elsewhere, while Oracle announced that it would no longer stage its annual software conference in San Francisco, in part because of the city’s dirty streets. “Shining example or third-world state?” a recent headline on a local news website asked. “You get depressed if you listen to everything going on, but you can’t find a contractor and the state continues to create jobs,” said Ed Del Beccaro, an executive vice president with TRI Commercial Real Estate Services, a brokerage and property management company in the Bay Area. Whether it’s by taming bays and mountains with roads, bridges and power lines or grappling with a lack of water and crippling earthquakes, California is perennially testing the limits of growth. Its population has swelled to 40 million and the state’s economy has grown more than previous generations had thought possible, cramming more cars and more people into cities that were supposed to be tapped out, while seeding new companies and new industries as old ones died or moved elsewhere. But today it has a new problem. For all its forward-thinking companies and liberal social and environmental policies, the state has mostly put higher-value jobs and industries in expensive coastal enclaves, while pushing lower-paid workers and lower-cost housing to inland areas like the Central Valley. This has made California the most expensive state — with a median home value of $550,000, about double that of the nation — and created a growing supply of three-hour “super commuters.” And while it has some of the highest wages in the country, it also has the highest poverty rate based on its cost of living, an average of 18.1 percent from 2016 to 2018. That helps explain why the state has lost more than a million residents to other states since 2006, and why the population growth rate for the year that ended July 1 was the lowest since 1900.“What’s happening in California right now is a warning shot to the rest of the country,” said Jim Newton, a journalist, historian and lecturer on public policy at the University of California, Los Angeles. “It’s a warning about income inequality and suburban sprawl, and how those intersect with quality of life and climate change.” You can see this in California economic forecasts for 2020, which play down the threat of a global trade war and play up the challenge of continuing to add jobs without affordable places for middle- and lower-income workers to live. You can see it in the Legislature, which has raised the minimum wage, and next year is poised to debate a bill that could reshape the state by essentially forcing cities to allow multistory buildings near transit stops. You also can see it in the stories of people like Ms. Johnson and other highly educated workers who have gone elsewhere. For Bryan Diffenderfer, leaving was about acquiring financial breathing room. Mr. Diffenderfer is a 36-year-old native Californian who until recently worked in sales and lived in a 1,200-square-foot townhouse in a Bay Area suburb with his wife and 2-year-old daughter. They had the means to buy a bigger home, but the mortgage payment would have been overwhelming. They bought a five-bedroom house outside Indianapolis for about $500,000, and Mr. Diffenderfer quit his job to work for his wife, who runs an ad-supported fashion blog and social media business.“I love California, but you hear about people who are cash-poor because they have to invest so much in their house,” he said. “Moving gave me the flexibility to leave my job and go into our family’s business.”

The Tech Crunch

A decade ago, California was mired in the Great Recession along with the rest of the nation. Unemployment was 12 percent, the state had a yawning budget gap and foreclosures were bad enough that skateboarders were rejoicing at the surplus of empty swimming pools. Far from lamenting the influence of tech companies, San Francisco extended tax breaks to get them to stay. When growth picked up, driven by a once-in-a-generation tech boom that accompanied the proliferation of social media and the widespread adoption of smartphones, California became the foremost example of an innovation economy. Start-ups pitched themselves as the Uber of X, while cities promoted themselves as the Silicon Valley of Y.But the underlying fault lines were still there. Rents and home prices stayed high, especially in the coastal areas where job and income growth was strongest. As the economy picked up and housing costs resumed their rise, lower-paid service and professional workers moved to distant exurbs, while homelessness spiraled to the point that local political leaders are all but declaring they are out of solutions.Elected officials in Los Angeles have urged the governor, Gavin Newsom, to declare a state of emergency over homelessness, while the governor is in turn telling the federal government that a state with a $215 billion annual budget cannot solve this on its own. But President Trump has belittled California’s homelessness problem and repeatedly sought to punish the state, whose 55 electoral votes went to Hillary Clinton in 2016. With their traffic and trash, California’s biggest cities have gone from the places other regions tried to emulate to the places they’re terrified of becoming.There are increasing complaints in Oregon, Nevada and Idaho that rents and home prices there are being pushed up by new arrivals fleeing California. A recent election in Boise, Idaho, was seen as a referendum on California-style growth. And Oregon’s decision to essentially ban single-family house neighborhoods has been billed by lawmakers as a bold intervention to pull the state away from a California-like trajectory.People have short memories, of course, and as soon as there is another recession, the focus of Californians and their leaders is bound to turn from the strains of growth to creating jobs. From 2009 to 2011, in the aftermath of the last recession, the poverty rate reached 23.5 percent. “A decade ago they were cutting school funding and social services,” said Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. “There are people injured by prosperity, but obviously a recession is more damaging to most people.”

Embrace of the Robot Arms

For now, voters and businesses are less concerned about where growth will come from and more concerned with figuring out how to address its discontents. In a recent poll, by the Public Policy Institute of California, homelessness was tied with the economy as voters’ top concern, the first time it has been a top issue in the 20-year life of the survey. Another survey by the institute showed that almost half of Californians have considered leaving because of high housing costs.Restaurants and other businesses are hiring fewer workers than they might because they can’t find enough people who can afford local housing costs. It’s also an issue for giant technology companies like Apple, Google and Facebook, which have pledged a total of $4.5 billion to build subsidized housing.Greg Biggs is adding more machines and moving jobs to cheaper locations. Mr. Biggs is the chief executive of Vander-Bend Manufacturing, a company in San Jose that makes metal products including surgical components and racks where data centers store computer servers. Vander-Bend has doubled its head count over the past five years, to about 900 employees, and pays $17 to $40 an hour for skilled technicians who need training but not a college degree. This is precisely the sort of middle-income job needed in the Bay Area, which like many urban areas is bifurcating into an economy of high-wage knowledge jobs and low-wage service jobs. The problem is he can’t find enough workers. The unemployment rate in San Jose is around 2 percent, and many of Vander-Bend’s employees already commute two or more hours to work. To compensate, Mr. Biggs has bought several van-size robot arms that pull metal panels from a pile then stamp them flush, bend their edges and assemble them into racks. He has opened a second location 75 miles away in Stockton, where labor and housing costs are a lot lower.This is in most ways a success story. Vander-Bend is raising wages and training workers. The machines aren’t replacing jobs but instead make them more efficient, and the company is bringing higher-wage positions to a region that needs more of them. But for workers, even substantial income gains are being offset by rising costs.A decade ago Manuel Curiel made $22 an hour as a production worker at Vander-Bend. Today he is 37 and, after several promotions, makes a six-figure salary. Almost anywhere else, that would be a shining example of how the longest economic expansion on record is reaching more workers, including those, like Mr. Curiel, who dropped out of high school. But this good-news story comes with a catch. In the decade that Mr. Curiel’s salary tripled, the rent on his family’s small two-bedroom apartment in Santa Clara more than tripled, from a little over $600 to more than $2,200, including a 35 percent increase one year. He has since joined Vander-Bend in moving about 80 miles east to Manteca, near the factory in Stockton, where he lives in a house offering more space for about the same rent. Ben Casselman contributed reporting from New York. Read the full article