#and the way it’s winter in the us now but still charting top 10 despite all the christmas songs is also crazyyyyyy

[breakbleheavens]

with every record cruel summer breaks and every achievement it reaches, the way it has become one of taylor’s biggest hits and so many years after it’s initial release is just absolutely so crazy it’s truly finally reaching its full potential 😭

[andsour]

യ  ♡  ( 🧁 )  ꙳  𐙚 honeylemon's sound is bubblegum pop perfection. with a production style characterized by addictive , idiosyncratic beats , catchy hooks , and standout middle eights , the group is known for their bright , cheerful concepts. ib : @bluwavez !! tw : bullying

debuting on may 17 , 2020 , honeylemon came in swinging with the digital single "asap". it was an almost immediate hit , debuting at #39 on the circle digital chart and steadily climbing its way to the top. the song got one win , on the last day the girls were promoting it on music shows.

their first comeback , "stereotype" , was even more of a commercial success. it sold twice as much , and earned them four music show wins. it also charted highly , peaking at #4 on circle.

being one of the most successful rookie acts , they took home the award for best new artist at the mnet asian music awards that year.

they started the next year off strong as well , releasing a three–track single album titled "russian roulette" on april 18 , 2021 , but were forced to promote the title track "loveshot" as five , as ej was on an indefinite hiatus after being swept up in a bullying controversy. although it was eventually proven to be false , the incident still impacted the performance of the album , and they ended up only winning two music show trophies for the era.

"mix n' match" was for the arts , not the charts. released on july 10 , 2021 , its title track of the same name was a mixed bag among fans , with some thinking it to be terrible while others called it "fun". nevertheless , the era is beloved , as ej finally returned to group promotions and seemed to glow on stage. the song also had a bit of a redemption era in 2022 , after being used in commercials worldwide when honeylemon became ambassadors for nike.

"not sorry" , released on october 11 , 2021 , shook the table. coming straight from their label senior , nabillera's , scrap box , honeylemon made the song their own , and it's now considered to be one of their best. a small but loud subsection of fans have spent years begging for them to return to this concept , although it is very unlikely it ever will. it got three music show wins.

finally , honeylemon finished off the year with their very first japanese release , becoming the fastest and one of the most well–received seventh heaven artists to debut in japan. their single album "winter wonderland" was released on december 13 , 2021 , in collaboration with the candy land board game and is impressively one of the best–selling projects by a k–pop artist in japan. it's title track "candy pop" charted on the oricon chart for over a year , and peaked at #1.

bonus : they performed a track called "sour grapes" during the seventh heaven family concert on december 28 , 2021. despite fans' begging , it still isn't available on streaming platforms.

honeylemon kicked off 2022 with yet another bang , releasing their first mini–album , "o–m–g" , on february 22. the title track "omg" , was popular on tiktok , especially with the girls' fancams going viral for their outfits , as they had gotten a new stylist. although they'd always had a sizeable international fanbase , the virality of this era brought them to a new level , putting them on the radars of people who'd never bothered with k–pop before. omg achieved eight music show wins.

honeylemon made their first japanese comeback with the single "wake me up" on april 9 , 2022. while not quite as successful as their debut , it still performed well , peaking at #4. the choreography went viral online , becoming popular to cover on tiktok and variety shows.

they stole the summer with the release of the single "ice cream" , featuring lablemate ara of nabillera on august 16 , 2022. the hype around this release was insane , with several big names being thrown around as fans guessed who the secret feature could be , only to be gagged by ara's reveal. after two years of incessant back–and–forth between their respective fanbases , it was truly a shocker. many were overjoyed to see ara on stage with a group again , since nabillera disbanded in 2017 , and the song did extremely well , achieving several perfect and real–time all–kills , and winning ten music show awards.

"dubble bubble" came and went. their second mini–album was released on november 3 , 2022. despite performing well enough , it just wasn't very memorable.

they released their japanese mini–album , "poppy" , on january 11 , 2023 , which was really just the one new track with the japanese versions of their previous title tracks. it peaked at #2 on oricon and actually performed quite well in korea , too , leading them to release a korean version months later.

in preparation for their first full length album , honeylemon dropped a pre–release single , titled "new me" , on may 6 , 2023. although the song was criticized by some for being "boring" , the era was anything but , coming just weeks after nabillera's naomi directly shaded honeylemon , essentially calling them knock–offs and ara a sellout in an interview for a high–profile magazine. joori's response during her acceptance stage for new me's first win , classily calling naomi out for being bitter , triggered weeks worth of online discourse.

honeylemon's first full–length album , "intencity" , was released on july 17 , 2023. the album and its title track "i like it" , both performed extremely well , as expected , and were nominated for album and song of the year at several award shows. this era was truly iconic , with the expert rollout. i like it received twelve music show wins in total. a repackage of the album titled "love u back" was released on september 18 , 2023.

lastly , honeylemon have announced their plans for a japan comeback , called "doughnut" , to be released on december 4 , 2023.

[sincerelyravens]

sobbe hunger games au be like:

since this probably will never end up as an actual story

sander is from district 2 (speciality is masonry). his father is a peacekeeper and his mother is one of the most skilled in her field. despite being raised to fight, to win the games, sander never wanted to kill. he would take a paintbrush for a spear over any day and he was outcasted from his war-loving district. when sander is 14, his name is drawn but no one volunteers for him. it’s unheard of in the entire history of district 2—especially for someone so young—but it’s what happens. his father was frozen, his mother wailed, his little sister begged him not to go, and sander was sent off to the capitol. 

the previous victors, their mentors, focused their sights on cornelia, the female volunteer. cornelia promised that she would make sander’s death easy. the other careers mocked him behind his back, but sander paid them no heed as he circled around the trap making, didn’t give his all to the showing of the judges—walking out with a 6. no one expected sander to survive his games.

but no one expected him to come out and be crowned the victor. 

once the countdown sounded—signaling the start of the games, sander raced off. his agility allowed him to reach the cornucopia first, grabbing hold of a bag and fleeing the upcoming massacre. in the midst of it, someone came at him with an ax, swinging, and sander’s body moved for him, pulling the knife from his bag and stabbing him. as the person fell to the floor, sander seized the ax—and the knife—and raced to the forest. it wasn’t his only kill—he killed the girl from district 12, the boy from district 6, the girl from district 1, and a few others he wasn’t sure of. when there was three tributes left, cornelia found him in the forest, having grown bored to let him die on his own. they fought for five minutes until the gamekeepers summoned mutts. while sander sought safety in a tree, cornelia fled, being killed—leaving only sander and one other person. in the end, the final kill wasn’t even his to take—the last tribute succumbed to a leg injury. 

the trauma from the games stay with him—as they always do. in his dreams, he sees everyone he killed—everyone he didn’t—and he sees them every night. when sander returned, the younger fighters looked up to him but those in his years didn’t—he was still an outcast.

but his new victor status came with new opportunities—and burdens. during his victory tour at the capital, sander snuck on the roof of the president’s mansion and met senne de smet, probably the only normal capital citizen without the fancy or grotesque makeup or fascination with the games—and somehow, beneath the night sky, sander made a friend. in addition, he was finally able to paint like he always wanted to, sticking a suitcase full of paints and canvases to take back to district 2... and they sold. but, one night, president snow made it clear that he wanted one more thing from sander. he introduced him to a rich family—with a daughter his age—and threatened his little sister’s life in the span of three seconds. and, every year with a new game and a new set of tributes to mentor, sander was forced to keep up the rumor of his conquests. 

and it continued... year after year. his nightly duties continued (though the people he was with increased once he turned 18). the gossip spread about the broken hearts trailing behind him. even after senne fell in love with a victor from district 10, a girl named zoë, the same old routine with the same old saying—an oxymoron truly—may the odds be ever in your favor. sometimes, sander thought about ending it all, stripping the president and the capital of their prized toy... and he got as far as his hotel roof before he couldn’t—he thought of his parents and his sister—who loved him, senne—his best friend since the night they met, and zoë—who had become his friend and confidant during the games even as their own tributes competited against each other. so, he stepped off the ledge, headed back inside, back to the same old thing.

until sander saw him.

robbe ijzermans. district 4. 

he was six weeks from aging out—six weeks away from freedom when his name was pulled. despite coming from a district that focused on fishing, he looked more like a fox than anything else with long brown hair pulled back into a bun and wild brown eyes and freckles. he was easily the most beautiful man that sander had ever seen before. when sander turned away from the screen, he found alexandra—his mentor partner—looking at him with a sad look in her face before she said, “Don’t fall for a dead boy, Sander. It never works out.” 

the girl who was reaped with him was a black-haired girl, noor bauwens, about the same age who shook as she walked up to the stand. as they were escorted off the stage, robbe reached over and wrapped the girl in a hug. before the train had left district 4, caesar flickerman had already spun a tale of childhood lovers fighting to survive in the hunger games and the district 4 mentors confirmed it once they arrived (they also cut off his hair, which sander really thought was a tragedy). and they did look like a couple. robbe would always reach out for noor’s hand, hold her close—before the parade, in the hotel elevator, in the training arena. whenever the footage of the training center came on, sander always found himself watching. he told senne and zoë that he was just watching the competition, but he could tell that they didn’t believe him.

when the games had begun, robbe and noor had stuck together, somehow managing to evade the blood bath, racing from the cornucopia with two backpacks and rope wrapped around them. every night, sander found himself rooted on the screen, trying to find out what happened to robbe as well as his own tributes. caesar flickerman kept his attention on the favorite couple of the games. but, overnight, noor had gotten injured in an ambush and robbe had managed to kill them all. even with medical supplies that the sponsors sent over, noor wasn’t getting any better. even through a screen, robbe looked upset and wrought with inner turmoil—like someone who was losing the love of his life. one night, noor breathed out, “you can’t do this anymore, robbe. you need to fight.” and robbe had shaken his head, saying, “i’ve got you, noor.” then he handed her some food and water, making sure she ate it all, before ushering her to sleep. as noor closed her eyes, robbe repeated the phrase. it was only a few minutes later that the cannon sounded off, signaling her death. 

after collecting his things, robbe fled their hideout so the game keepers could take her away. by this time, both of sander’s tributes were dead but he still found himself glued to the screen, unable to turn his eyes away for a second. he lost sleep, but he didn’t care. even alexandra was beside him, curious to find out about him. 

in the end... robbe won, practically holding his pierced stomach together to keep him alive, as the helicopters descended to pick him up. caesar flickerman talked about his heroism for staying with noor, for fighting his way home, but even with the cameras, sander could see how robbe looked whenever they brought up noor but caesar remained oblivious. before they had all gone home, until the victory tour in the winter, sander went up to the roof for a smoke and one last glance at the capital skyline—and he found robbe sitting on the ledge with his legs over the side. when sander had announced his presence, he had jumped but let sander sit down beside him. they had been quiet for a few minutes before robbe asked, “does it go away?” before elaborating, “the nightmares.” 

sander didn’t lie. “no.” he was quiet before he added, “there’s no cameras up here.” robbe had stared at him for a few moments. 

for about ten minutes, they were quiet before robbe breathed out: “everyone thinks i lost my girlfriend, even everyone at home—except maybe one person—but that’s not true.” sander had glanced over at him, the cigarette in his fingertips. “we were never like that. we played it for the cameras, thought it would get us good sponsorships on top of our scores... and it did. but i didn’t lose my girlfriend in that arena... i lost one of my best friends.” he let out a breath and rubbed at his eyes. “sorry, i don’t know why i said that. you don’t even know me.”

“i know you.” sander had interrupted. robbe had looked up. “i know you,” he repeated before reaching out his hand and saying. “sander driesen. district 2.”

for six months, robbe disappeared. 

then came the victory tour and he was charted off to every district like they all were. finally, he arrived back at the capital, back at the president’s mansion, until he bumped right into sander in the midst of talking about paintings with one of the capital people. the two had exchanged muted greetings before the customer was interested in buying his painting—and his sister was interested in something else. as sander felt her making her move, felt himself succumb to the nightly activities (that president snow had told him about), he found himself looking for robbe and found him over with senne and zoë, who were both talking with him.

after sneaking out of the girl’s room, sander went back to his designated room and bumped into robbe in the lobby, carrying a bunch of supplies and cameras in his hands. sander had laughed, helping him carry them to his room. once they were inside, they started talking about the past six months—about how robbe was adjusting. sander had mentioned about how the capital takes some getting used to but promised to show robbe all of the good spots. even in the darkness of the apartment, sander could spot the flush on robbe’s cheeks before he said that he would like to go. 

the next day, sander took robbe around the capital in search for new things for robbe to take home—now that he had an virtually unlimited supply of money at his disposal. everywhere they went, heads would turn to see where they were going, and sander wished they would all go away. sander bought some new art supplies and robbe found some more electronics that he could salvage. sander teased him for being a techie from the fishing district 4 and robbe had blushed, saying that it helps calm his mind. 

when they arrived back at robbe’s apartment, arms full of shopping bags, robbe invited sander in for a drink to thank him for the tour and, somehow, sander had pinned robbe against the refrigerator and kissed the daylights out of him—and robbe kissed him back. kissing robbe felt different than anyone else he had kissed before and sander never wanted to stop—but unfortunately, his phone rang with one of his “clients” who had a sultry voice and wanted his last night before they all left. sander wanted to snap, say that he was busy, but the thought of his little sister being killed—or worse, reaped on purpose—tore him away from robbe with a mumbled “i’m sorry.” 

for the next games, robbe and sander had run into each other in the elevator and had talked mindlessly before robbe got off on his floor and motioned sander to follow. alexandra had looked at him with wide eyes as sander followed in suit. safely in his apartment, robbe asked why he left and why he didn’t reach out. when robbe asked if he was another one of sander’s conquests that he strung around the capital, sander couldn’t helping kissing that thought off his lips. sander told robbe of snow’s threat and how he doesn’t want robbe to be caught in the crossfires and how, if sander could have his way, robbe would be the only one. robbe closes his eyes and kisses him again, pulling him in the direction of his bedroom, and that’s how their life together begins. 

when the games weren’t going on, his mornings and afternoons were completely owned by robbe. if the games were going on, the tv would be on in the background or they’d be out with sponsors, trying to help their tributes in any way that they could. when one of their tributes died or the nightmares got too much, they would hold each other as the sobs overwhelmed them. but, his nights, were mostly reserved for others in the capital—but robbe never left sander’s mind... not even for a second. whenever they called, robbe would press a kiss to his forehead and mumble out an “it’s okay” like he could read the thoughts in sander’s mind.

if snow ever knew, he never said but sander always prepared like he had known the entire time. snow was smart like that. thankfully, robbe didn’t get the same treatment that sander had gotten. instead, with his engineering mind, he was tasked with helping build the arenas, which took it’s own toll on a more permanent basis, and—as much as sander hated his evening work at the capital—he gathered more support for his paintings so he could come to the capital more often, hold robbe a little tighter. 

when it all got too much, the hatred of their situation and the nightmares they wouldn’t wish on anyone else, they had each other to hold onto, to kiss away the nightmares in the rare nights that they were allowed to be together—and, when they heard of a rebellion that would stop the nightmares from happening to someone else, the thought to join the fight, to rebel against the twisted system, was instantaneous. 

[kainetestament]

Pietro, no Fietro could still possibly be Peter from X-Men Universe… Maybe?

So as revealed in Episode 9 of WandaVision, the identity of Fietro is none other than Ralph Bohner, the husband Agness always mention, and a possible real resident of Westview. WV director Matt Shakman already clarified that the “Bohner” is actually a reference to his 80’s sitcom Growing Pains. But for many fans of Evan Peters, this “Bohner” joke didn’t play well and at the same time, let us breakdown everything that is wrong with this identity of Ralph Bohner and why he’s suspicious despite the claim of WandaVision writers/director that Evan Peters has nothing to do with the mutants or X-Men Universe, after all they always deny everything. They even mentioned that they had no idea that Evan Peters appearance will cause so many theories and everything, which I highly doubt, I mean come on, they made him play QuickSilver in WandaVision when he is QuickSilver himself only of another universe. I don’t dissed ATJ, I love this guy too from his Kickass, Godzilla movie (this is where I first encounter ATJ before his QS role in Avengers), but as a QS, Evan Peters top him, on my opinion at least, he even has his own QS commercials. Also, Evan Peters have more cool QS moments, the Kitchen scene VS the Age of Ultron overall, at least for me, I prefer the kitchen scene and the whiplash part. Anyhow, let us begin:

 Note: I edited this post to make this article more easier to read and added additional info.

1. Speculations roaming around that Ralph Bohner could be an aspiring actor because the picture is actually his headshot (which actually looks like his earlier AHS photos). I’m not going to debunk this possibility, but I do not believe it’s a headshot nor he’s an aspiring actor. Although true enough, the image does looks like of Evan Peters early AHS photos (kind of like Tate Langdon) – which is probably a reference to that, who knows.

2. The pile of papers on the side table. It is questionable why would your papers, a bill (a very old bill even - not folded or inside one of those envelopes) and your photos in plain sight where Monica – an outsider can see it? Almost as if you planned it all along and he wanted Monica to see it.

3. Necromancy vs Crystallum Possession. Necromancy is a dark arts of when the person (the Necromancer) can manipulate the dead body of the person, or summoning their spirit. Crystallum Possession however is also part of the dark arts but this time you are using an object (like crystals, gems, stones etc) that is embodied with the user’s spells to manipulate the wearer.

Agatha had told Wanda that what she does is a crystallum possession since necromancy is a no-no due to his brother’s body is on another continent, and since this Pietro died in 2014, it should now be bones, I think the “full of holes” remark is nothing more than a mocking remark, because if it’s not, then Marvel will probably have their own interpretation of Necromancy and Crystallum Possession, and this could probably go darker. And Ralph is wearing a bead necklace that is embedded with Agatha’s power. But is Agatha really in full control of Ralph? Honestly, I don’t think so. Why? Because in Episode 6, Peter said about Wanda’s costume “Worse than the costume mom made us the year we got typhus”, then she reminisced “that year”, and told him  “That’s not exactly how I remember it.” because in her universe, she isn’t wearing Halloween costume she thinks is worse and she didn’t deny about them getting typhus, so what are the odds of Agatha/Fietro getting that info if he is not Peter? Also, we don’t know how MARVEL will tell the story multiverse/alternate timelines (the Russo Brothers already claimed that they have their own way of telling this story), but if we are looking for a one generic rule, major life events will occur but will be told uniquely as per their universe, on this case Peter and Wanda did had a typhus, but in Peter’s world, his Wanda and him are probably wearing whatever cosplay outfit their mom made and in Wanda and Pietro are just wearing something simple, or it could be that Peter really just have a weird sense of style.

4. The WATER BILL. Now, this is a real bill, it is not part of Wanda’s illusion, this is Ralph’s actual water bill, because Ralph’s house was under Agatha’s spell, which makes it exempted from Wanda’s spell.  Also, if you go frame by frame, you can actually see the word “Water”, “PAST DUE” on the right column part of the bill, before it totally goes out of focus and you can only read the left side part, that also says “YOUR MONTHLY USAGE (1,000 GAL INCREMENTS)”, which further validates it’s a water bill, not a phone bill nor electricity bill as others actually claim. And here is the tricky part, the bill’s date. On the right side under the STATEMENT is the Account Information (using Arial font), it’s a bit hard to make out of it, but it’s actually an old bill. Before it becomes totally blurry, you can read the right part of the bill that says:

STATEMENT

ACCOUNT INFORMATION

ACCOUNT:                      09-3476-12

SERVICE ADDRESS:     2804 SHERWOOD DRIVE

BILL DATE:                     10/01/2020

DUE DATE:                     10/31/2020

If we go back to Infinity War, it takes place in June 2018. So that means that this Ralph Bohner survived the SNAP, but what could happen to him in year 2019-2020? Who knows, I don’t even know if I should care or not.

If we check on the usage chart – which is “not blurred” (it’s also in increments of 12 – 12/24/36/48/60), and I’ll just speculate on the numbers on the meter chart, so don’t take my word for it. Also, I don’t know what Marvel is planning or hinting by showing this insignificant 2020 bill, which also has confusing usage. (I’ll just use term like pcm – per cubic meter, so that it won’t just be plain numbers beside the month).

January - 6 pcm

February – 18 pcm

March – 6 pcm

April – 6 pcm

June – 6 pcm

July – 9 pcm

August – 13 pcm

September – 22 pcm

October – 34 pcm

(November and December have gray shade - similar to the one in month of Jan-May).

Again, I don’t know what’s the significance of not blurring this part of the bill while the right side column is properly blurred. And the confusing part of this bill, is the bill date is of 10/01/2020 – meaning Ralph had received this bill during the first week of October, but why is there already a usage for the full month of October, when usage should be only show up to the month of September? After the Account Information, there’s the

METER INFORMATION (WATER)

USAGE   PREVIOUS   DATE      CURRENT       DATE

4             1963 (?)        09/01/20      *- - - -*          *- - - -*

The PREVIOUS actually looks like either 1063 or 1963, and oddly enough the first Avengers Comics was published on September 1, 1963, I don’t know if that’s a reference to that, but from my pov, it shouldn’t be because this series is inspired of House of M and a bit touch of West Coast Avengers, which was already reference by the SUV plate number in Episode 7. The CURRENT and DATE are both unreadable, I can only identify _ _ _ 2 in CURRENT and 0_/_ _/20 for the DATE after.

And let’s also not forget that outside the HEX, it is August 2023 and as per Episode 8, inside the HEX is currently year 2013 as shown in the auditorium behind the lighting after it explained how Wanda created Vision. I don’t know if this is a reference to something from the past MCU projects (X-Men even) or future franchise like Falcon and Winter Soldier, who knows, really. I just find it weird why they didn’t blurry the meter chart while the rest are. But why year 2020? Why isn’t this bill thrown out yet? Didn’t Monica notice that billing date of the bill?

5. The man-cave. The staff really transformed Fietro’s man-cave into very, very Peter-like (if he really is not Peter). I will list thing that are present and similar to what Peter of X-Men Universe room have. I’ll reference * (single asterisk) for Days of Future Past, ** (double asterisk) for Apocalypse, and *** (triple asterisk) for both films.

❀ comfortable couch***

❀ guitar*** 

❀ headphones***

❀ balls*

❀ lots of posters***

❀ bike***

❀ a bar**

❀ shoes on the floor**

❀ different types of drinks (non alcoholic)***

Also, lots of silver/metallic items such as:

❀ silver lamp**

❀ silver TV

❀ silver house ventilation tubes

❀ silver pillowcases (looks gray on other angles)

❀ silver mini fridge

❀ silver microwave oven

❀ silver rack (where TV and speaker stands)    

❀ silver wristwatch*

❀ video games*** (both PS & XBox)

and even something that looks like a stolen goods like the Tiki Bar plaque, Tiger head.

This Fietro is basically just missing the goggles, I did my best to look for it (like on those detective games that instructs you to find this and that *lol*), but there’s really none *laugh*. Also, I just noticed the arrangement of his man-cave – single-seat couch** > small side table with a lamp** > 3-seater couch (the Apocalypse has an L-shape couch though) > a middle coffee table**, this arrangement is similar to Peter’s man-cave in Apocalypse which can be slightly seen when his mom came down saying “Just checking on you” (you can watch it at starting point 1:02:55, at least on my copy), you just need to look for proper timing because a few of those shots are out of focus probably due to her obviously looking somewhere reading her lines that are raised besides the camera, which became even more obvious  when she did a close up shot when she told him “But trust me, this won’t end well. Nothing does with him.” 

Also, in Episode 5, when Peter first made an appearance, the leather jacket he’s wearing is eerily similar to the one he’s wearing in his cameo appearance in Deadpool 2 (we only got the glimpse of the front of the jacket in Deadpool but the front side of his jacket in WandaVision is identical). Though I find it weird too that his hair color switch from silver to light ash blonde.

6. Ralph is the guy under witness protection? I doubt it, although honestly at first I considered maybe he is, but after a few thinking, it doesn’t lead to it, because if he’s in witness protection, and the person who is managing him forgets him because of Wanda, FBI database should still at least have a photo of him to be able to identify him, and Jimmy in episode 7 saw Peter and never commented about him being their missing guy. As we all know, the house is under the name Ralph Bohner, who we can assume survived the SNAP and possibly left that house in September 2020. If he had left the house way back in 2020, why does Agent Woo or FBI rather only checked it now? Also, if Ralph Boner is indeed the guy under witness protection, it is the FBI that pays off their bill, on this case, the Water Bill was past due even if it was an old bill, so I don’t think he is.

7. Does Ralph Boner really exist? This is actually something that I have given some thought. Because if we think of QuickSilver, one of his abilities as per comics is his Quick Intelligence. His mind process a lot of things much faster than an average person. Peter spying on everyone and pretending to be someone else in an unknown world is not surprising, let alone using everything he can take advantage of. It can be that the bill is fake and there is really no Ralph Bohner, or just like what I mentioned in #7, he could’ve possibly left in September 2020 and hasn’t returned yet, and Peter assumes this identity to avoid suspicion.

If we are to assume he really is Peter Maximoff of X-Men Universe (Earth-TRN414) and crossed over to Earth-616, I did consider this could also be the house where he lives as per his universe and just so happens that Ralph Bohner is the current owner of the house in this MCU. Also, Xavier Institute is located in NY and in Days of Future Past, they only drove from NY to his house via rental car, which we can assume that he doesn’t live that far from NY, after all NY and NJ are neighbors.

8. Also this has nothing to do with Ralph/Fietro, but something I noticed, that the outside anomaly or outside of Westview – about the selective amnesia has yet to be answered. It only explained that Wanda is manipulating the people INSIDE, but not the ones outside the HEX. What actually come to mind when I think about it is that it can be a work by a TELEPATH which can be either Charles Xavier or Emma Frost (no Jean Grey? Yes I excluded her). What I am actually thinking is that the person under witness protection is a spy sent by Charles or possibly working with him. He could have implanted false memory to the so called “family and friends”, so when the HEX was established, the strings got cut off hence no one could remember this “missing person” anymore, and Jimmy who has nothing to do with this “missing person” is not affected by the selective amnesia and assumes the responsibility of looking for him. And assuming Charles is the telepath who altered their memories of the people outside of Westview, he probably has done it as a precaution since he couldn’t contact his spy or “missing person” and wouldn’t take the risk of endangering the resident who were happened to be outside the HEX when Wanda establishes it.

These are just some of the things I find that doesn’t make sense with Ralph’s identity. But we’ll just leave it at that. I still really want James McAvoy back as Charles Xavier and Michael Fassbender as Magneto, since both Sir Ian McKKellen and Sir Patrick Stewart did mention they’re done with their role. And I feel that it’s too risky to use them since they are in their 80’s now, I don’t know them personally but it gives me some sorts of paranoia *laughs* thinking they might get injured.

[allie1804-fan]

A Doorway is Opened (Chapter 2)

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 It was June 2020 and progress was being made with plans to re-open film production - Keanu would soon be heading back to Germany to continue shooting the Matrix 4.  With the lock-down restrictions on meeting friends lifting, Keanu invited Hannah to dinner at his house. He even cooked - a dish of spaghetti with prawns, fresh tomato and lemon that his sister had taught him.  This would be their first meeting in 2 months and their last in 2 months due to the shooting schedule.  

After dinner, they went through to his living room and sat on the sofa to talk through the latest draft of the script.

 “So, you’re glad I pushed you on this aren’t you? Gave you something to do in lock-down huh?”

 “Yeah OK you win”, she laughed. “I’m grateful to you for giving me the confidence to try”  

 She carried on:

 “You know these past couple of months I’ve felt like the clouds have lifted, the clouds of grief …. and I know that’s partly just time passing but it’s also thanks to you and your friendship” she spoke in an almost whisper.  When she met his gaze he was blushing again!

 “The screenplay gave me a real focus for the first time since Mark died you know other than helping the boys and just putting one foot in front of the other”

 He nodded his understanding

 “I kind of feel like a plant coming back to life after a long dark winter”

 He smiled to think he’d helped her to loosen grief’s grip on her soul.

 “I heard a theory about this before. They said that your grief is always the same, the same size and just as painful but your life grows around it and cushions the pain”

 Keanu nodded his agreement

 “For me” he said, “sometimes my grief bursts forth like an alien from my chest when I least expect it. I hope we find a way to express your concept in the movie when it’s made -  I love it so much. You have some beautiful ways of explaining grief”

 “Well like I said, that one’s not mine, it’s just one I found that really resonated with me”

 “You’re too modest”

 They looked at each other. Somehow, the atmosphere had changed with the sharing of such deep feelings. Keanu looked at her, soft brown eyes holding hers for a few moments longer than felt comfortable. Suddenly he shook his head as if a shiver went through him

 “Where are my manners, would you like some more wine”

 “I better not, I’m driving and I’ve already had one glass” she said.

 “You could always sleep over, in the spare room I mean, I mean I’m not hitting on you or anything, not that I wouldn’t want to, oh God! ……….”

 By this point, Hannah had started laughing at his befuddlement and he started to giggle as well.

 “Sorry for being such a dork – could you stay though?” he beseeched her with his eyes,  or do you need to be back for the kids?, I know I sound like I’m begging, I kind of am I guess ……….. it would just be nice to talk some more ………. I mean what with we me going away for 2 months, Facetime just isn’t the same!”

 Hannah took pity on him and placed her hand on top of his and stroked it softly

 “1 I don’t need to be back for the boys, they’re at their grandparents this week and so 2, yes I could sleep over and 3 yes please, more wine!”

 Keanu beamed and leapt up to fetch the bottle from the kitchen.

“What were we talking about before I started being a total dork?!

 Hannah chuckled “oh grief, death, our usual cheery stuff!”

 “Oh yes, of course we were, what else is there after all?!”

 A ghost of a smiled showed on Hannah’s face.

 “Do you mind telling me some more about Mark? How long were you together”

 “Wow, over 30 years   - we were just kids when we met, literally in elementary school. But we didn’t go out until I was 17, nearly 18. I guess I kind of stalked him until he caved in!  We knew we were in love about a month in I guess and we got engaged whilst at uni but married just after. I was 23 so we had been married 27 years when he died”

 “Wow you were so young to be getting married!”

 “I know right! - when I think Toby is already nearly that age, it freaks me out big time.  Anyway, I guess you almost know the rest, from the book. We were lucky in so many ways to find each other and stay in love throughout.

 A comfortable silence fell as she reflected and wondered about his romantic history. She hoped their current intimacy meant it would be OK to ask.

 “What about you? Who have been your big loves, if it’s OK to ask”

 “Sure – I mean I think I can be confident of not seeing any of this in next week’s National Enquirer! Let me see, errrrm  there was Penny. She drove with me from Toronto to LA when I left there to pursue my career.  It wasn’t exactly serious - she knew how focussed on my acting I was, but she was special, my first steady girlfriend I guess.”

Keanu then told her about a few other steady girlfriends in the 80’s and early 90s. None of them had lasted beyond a year. Film and promotional schedules often overtook his time and took him away from LA making it hard to sustain relationships.

 “And then there was Jennifer. We had a long distance thing largely as I was away filming the first Matrix not long after we hooked up. I think that added in my head to the romance of it all. Writing her letters on my little typewriter after long days on set, posting them from thousands of miles away. Once I got back to LA things felt less sure, she was never confident in us, always needing reassurance and I think she found the celebrity thing both exciting and overwhelming - like she was part way a fan, partly my lover, you know? Then she got pregnant and everything changed”

 “Oh so Jennifer was the mother of your baby, the one who died?”

 Hannah knew this one fact about him but had steered away from looking stuff up on-line about it. She counted him as a friend now so if anything was to be shared, it had to come from him.

 “Yeah, Ava’s mother. 19 years ago…….so much water under the bridge.”

 “Do you think about her often now?”

 “Who? Jen or Ava?”

 “Both I guess”

 “Yeah sometimes. You know in a sliding doors type way, especially at Christmas. That’s when we lost Ava. Christmas Eve 1999. What about you, do you think about your lost babies?”

 “Yes sometime of course …….  but I think it’s different for me. My lost babies paved the way for Josh. If they’d lived, he wouldn’t be here, so I don’t mourn them as maybe you mourn your daughter, do you see? Of course I do think of them and every Christmas we’d hang stars and angels on the tree for them. That’s how we remembered them and the pain of their loss.”

 Hannah was quiet for a few moments, remembering

 “Do you have a way, a ritual to remember Ava? Do you and your family do something to remember her?”

 “I guess they always just try to make sure I’m not alone at Christmas. That’s threatened to happen a couple of times and then Brenda or Janey or Alexandra have stepped in you know to rescue me! Stop me embodying my meme!”

 “Your meme?”

 You know, “Sad Keanu”?

 “That one must have passed me by! I’ll get the boys to explain to their boomer mom!”

 “I’m so glad you’re a boomer mum as you say and not all over it when it comes to press and internet stuff about me. It’s refreshing. Makes me feel I can be me without all that stuff informing who you think I am. Sometimes it gets in the way with new people, you know? I know I can be myself around my old old friends like Alex (he was in Bill and Ted) and Rob (he was in the band with me)

 “Wait you were in a band?”

 “Yes back in the 90s, Dogstar. Our folk thrash punk band”

 “Sounds interesting – I clearly wasn’t paying enough attention back in the 90s!”

 “Well we weren’t exactly topping the charts so that would probably explain it!”

 “Can I hear some of your stuff?”

 “Sure”

 Keanu fetched some cds and had a look through to pick a song, going for  “And I Pray”.

 “Gosh, a man of many talents” she praised “what did you play?”

 “the bass”

 “Cool”

 “wanna listen to some more music? I can hook up my phone to the speakers and we can play things on Spotify”.

 “Sure, so you’re au fait with all the new tech? I took me ages to get there and I still have loads of cds and vinyl”

 “me too   - believe me I’m generally way behind the curve with technology but my god-daughter and my kid sister both played a role in bringing me into the 21st century”

They spent the next couple of hours, huddled on the sofa, scrolling through music choices on his phone and sharing both his and her favourites as well as reminiscing about bands they’d grown up listening to and great concerts they’d been to.

 It was around 1am, with Pink Floyd’s “Wish You Were Here” softly playing that Hannah’s head lolled onto Keanu’s shoulder, the impact startling her back awake

 “sorry, sorry” she said embarrassed

 “hey no worries, you wanna go to bed now?” he asked

 “Yeah, as you saw, my eyes are closing” 

 “Come on, let’s get you set up in the guest room, I’ve got a spare t-shirt you can sleep in if you like and there’s a new toothbrush in the en-suite with your room.

 The room was a pretty one, perhaps decorated with his god-daughter in mind she thought. Once he’d shown her where things were and how to work the shower, Keanu bade her goodnight with a light kiss on her cheek. Despite being so tired, it took Hannah a good half hour to fall asleep. She touched the cheek where he’d kissed her and giggled inwardly at herself for feeling like a giddy teenager. In the past 2 months, she’d recognised her growing fondness for Keanu, putting it down to a mix of absence making the heart grow fonder and the Covid crisis making her susceptible. She’d found him very attractive way before she met him but she certainly hadn’t expected that he would reciprocate those nascent feelings. Tonight his lingering gaze as they talked about grief, his befuddlement trying to get her to stay and his soft goodnight kiss all made her wonder and maybe even hope. Tomorrow was another day.

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[jackie-talks-about-starkid]

A Very Potter Sequel (Rewatch #3, 9/23/2020)

YouTube publish date: July 22, 2010 [three years and a day from the book release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows]

Number of views on date of rewatch: 4, 850, 972

Original Performance Run: May 14-16, 2010

Ticket price: Free! And available via email reservations! (because of parody-legality things) [x]

Director: Matt Lang

Music and Lyrics: Darren Criss

Book: Brian Holden, Matt Lang, and Nick Lang

Cast album price and availability: $9.99, on Bandcamp (x)  and iTunes

     Release date: 8/3/2010

Parody or original: a very original sequel parody (parodies Sorcerer’s Stone, Prisoner of Azkaban, and Order of the Phoenix specifically while incorporating other elements of the Potter books, movies, and various other pop culture references)

Main cast and characters

Harry - Darren Criss

Ron - Joey Richter

Hermione - Bonnie Grueson

Draco - Lauren Lopez

Snape - Joe Moses

Dumbledore - Dylan Saunders

Umbridge - Joe Walker

Lupin - Brian Holden

Sirius - Nicholas Straus

Lucius Malfoy - Tyler Brunsman

Yaxley - Corey Dorris

Musical numbers

Act I

     *all music and lyrics by Darren Criss

“Not Over Yet” Characters: Lucius, Yaxley, and Death Eaters

“Harry Freakin’ Potter” Characters: Ron Weasley, Rita Skeeter, Harry, and Hogwarts Students

“To Have A Home” Characters: Harry

“Hermione Can’t Draw/Lupin Can’t Sing” Characters: Harry and Hogwarts Students

“The Coolest Girl” Characters: Hermione

“Gettin’ Along” Characters: Dumbledore and Umbridge

“Let The Games Begin” Characters: Company

“Those Voices” Characters: Harry, Sirius, James, and Lily

Act II

“Guys Like Potter” Characters: Lucius and Snape

“Stutter” Characters: Umbridge

“No Way” Characters: Harry, Ron, Hermione, and Draco

“Days of Summer/Back to Hogwarts” Characters: Harry, Ron, Hermione, Draco, and Company

Notable Notes:

The entire filmed version of AVPS premiered at the Harry Potter convention, Infinitus, which is one of (if not, the first) convention that StarKid officially attended as guests

A Very Starkid Album, which includes many songs from AVPS as well as the Darren Criss solo versions of “Ready to Go” and “Even Though” from Me and My Dick, debuted as #14 on iTunes Top Pop Album charts when it was released, earning a spot higher than Glee and Lady Gaga, whose albums were placed at #31 and #29, respectively (x)

Cultural Context: 2010

Hurt Locker wins Best Film at the Critics’ Choice Awards

The Winter Olympics happen in Vancouver

Matt Smith has his first appearance as the 11th Doctor on Doctor Who

Iron Man 2 opens on April 26th

One Direction is formed on X Factor

California’s Prop 8, banning same-sex marriage in California, is overturned

The global outbreak of the Swine Flu is still ongoing

Content Analysis:

There are a two things that stuck with me the most while watching AVPS for the umpteenth time that I could not stop thinking about:

     1. each character portrayed in the show shows off each actor’s comedic strengths perfectly, and

     2. despite not every single creative team member having a musical theatre specific formal education, growing up in and around musical theatre made the team more aware of the intrinsic musical theatre characteristics and formulas that aid a work like this in its success.

The first point should be somewhat obvious to those who have watched the show and are fans of the original source content, both book and movie universes. I cannot sing the praises of Lauren Lopez and Joey Richter’s comedic timing enough! I have no words for how incredible their performances are. Darren Criss’ performance is charming as always. Joe Walker as Umbridge is absolutely hilarious - StarKid’s comfortability with performing in drag is something I really admire that not a lot of productions can successfully pull off. I’d like to give a special nod to Tyler Brunsman as Lucius Malfoy who honored Lopez’s physicality as Draco perfectly while still making the overdramatic poses and gestures a trait that is the character’s own. Overall, 10/10 love the performances.

Now for the music. Darren Criss has an extensive background in musical theatre and theatre in general, so it isn’t surprising that he was able to make music that worked so well for a musical that he helped create. However, there are certain things about musical theatre that a person can’t learn via formal education and experience in professional settings. A lot of musical theatre (I’d say all of it, but that wouldn’t be giving professionals enough credit) is simply trial and error. While the loose idea of book-and-lyric/dialogue, song, and dance musical theatre has existed for over one hundred and fifty years (historians often attribute the first musical to The Black Crook which debuted in New York City in 1866), the modern-day formula for musical theatre was perfected, though by all means not invented, by Rodgers and Hammerstein in the 1940s with Oklahoma! They are often credited for creating the traditional musical theatre plot formula and song types that were used almost exclusively in the Golden Age of musical theatre in the 1950s, and are still commonly seen today, even with more experimental and non-traditional pieces.

Like how the Hero’s Journey in literature is so commonly used and reused over and over in different mediums and genres, even in theatre, there are certain types of songs that are traditionally used for servicing a musical’s plot and character development. A classic example of this would be the “I Want” song, such as ‘The Wizard and I’ from Wicked or ‘Something’s Coming’ in West Side Story. In A Very Potter Sequel, the “I Want” song is ‘To Have A Home’. Another common song trope in large cast musicals with one specific lead is something I like to call the “Hero’s Welcome” song, though I’m not sure if that phrase is the proper term for what I’m talking about. An example of this type of song is ‘My Shot’ from Hamilton or, in this case, ‘Harry Freakin’ Potter’. A personal favorite of mine is the “Jilted Lovers” song, like ‘Take Back Your Mink’ from Guys and Dolls and ‘Stutter’, from this show.

Anyone who is familiar with musicals, and particularly musical comedies, would recognize these kinds of songs and the roles that they serve in their specific productions, but the reason why it’s so hard to write successful musicals is because not every song a person writes for a specific part of a show fits the rights tone or follows the more traditional type of song seen in previous musicals that follow a similar plot structure of character introduction, conflict introduction, rising action, climax, and resolution (with a happy ending for a musical comedy). Yet Darren Criss, who was in his early twenties at the time, executes it so very well.

Even in the character performances, actors use very specific gestures and intonations when delivering a line or performing an action that the audience immediately knows the intentions of, because that delivery is so commonly used in whatever instance is being performed. One that immediately comes to mind is the scene in which Umbridge discusses the dorm rules with the girls. While explaining the cruel and unfair treatment the world gives for girls who aren’t as pretty and perfect as Cho Chang, Umbridge says,

“Because that’s just the way the world works for frumpy little turds like us! I mean…

*Umbridge stiffens with realization, then turns her neck in a very jilted fashion towards the girls*

Like you”

It’s the neck action that does it for me. I don’t know how or when that performative gesture became a physical symbol indicative of aggressive mental instability, but the media consumer inside of me knows that gesture is what is meant to be done at that moment in time to convey the threat Umbridge represents. And that’s what makes the comedy of StarKid, and the comedy in this production work so well for me. The cast and creative team just get what it means to perform something for an audience, and particularly an audience of fans. And it’s definitely because the cast and creative team are such adamant fans themselves.

[bbhyuckie]

Crossed Wires - 2

Find Chapter 1 here, and read on AO3 here.

Genre: Slowburn office romance.

Words: 4.2k

Warnings: Mentions of alcohol, all drinking is legal and responsible.

Things between you and Doyoung stayed respectfully distant for the weeks to follow. The company was in a notably dry period, meaning not a lot of contracts to draft and not a lot of logistics to run. However, for every drought, there was always a flood.

SM signed a contract in early November with a secondary entertainment company to merge under SM’s label. Mergers normally wouldn’t be an issue, but certain subsidiaries were demanding stock rights or downright subsidiary liquidation. While this may not seem like a problem for marketing and advertising, you suddenly had an entirely new demographic to appeal to and draw research from-- and those researching rights cost a lot of money.

Needless to say, you and Doyoung found yourself on the phone with each other increasingly frequently. It was the same as it always was; facts were discussed, documents were sent around, and that was the end of it. Phone calls were brief and brain numbing. All you could afford to think about was work.

Despite the sudden drain on your life force, Doyoung and yourself continued to send notes to each other. The majority of the time, it was in regard to whatever paperwork was in the file, but bits and pieces of personality began to bleed through on both ends. One particular note apologised for the documents being late, Doyoung had been late to work because his cat knocked his phone off his bed stand and unplugged the charger. Dead phone equaled no alarm which equated to late Doyoung. Similarly, you often apologized for mug shaped halfrings of coffee ending up on important papers, but that it really couldn’t be helped if he wanted you awake and functioning.

You were working on an email to an outside marketing affiliate when your office phone began to ring. You glanced from the brightness of your computer screen to the receiver. Getting calls to your office phone wasn’t unheard of, but it was pretty strange to see a call coming out of your office from the logistics extension.

Your body moved before your brain as your hand reached out and pulled the phone off the hook.

“Hello?” you noted belatedly that you didn’t answer with a your typical line of your name and department.

“Y/N?” It was Doyoung on the other end, but somehow you already knew that before you heard his voice.

“Hey,” you patted around your desk for a pen and a notebook, “What’s up?”

“Oh, nothing, just--” Doyoung cut himself off short, and if you had known him better, you would have heard the hesitance in his voice, “I guess it’s nothing.”

A wave of worry washed over you and it felt oddly misplaced towards Doyoung.

“Well, you called for a reason,” your tone was easy and lighthearted, “I don’t bite. What’s going on?”

On the other end, Doyoung puffed out a breath of air, “Sorry, it’s just… I didn’t write anything on the files I sent down this morning. And I didn’t want you to think that I didn’t want to do that anymore, ‘cause I noticed your returning file didn’t have a note either.”

“Oh,” was all you managed. Truth be told, you hadn’t even noticed.

It was quiet a beat before Doyoung cleared his throat, “I’m recognizing now that I could’ve just sent another note.”

You laughed at that, genuinely laughed, and it felt like a breath of fresh air. You ran a hand over your face and pressed the built up tension over your brow.

“Yeah, you-- you could have,” you said, reigning your giggles back under control, “But you know, we can talk on the phone, too.”

“Right, ah--,” Doyoung said, and you imagined he must be running his hand up the back of his neck, a nervous tick all of the boys in your department carried when they were flustered, “I suppose we can.”

You propped your chin on your hand, “You know, I used to talk on the phone all the time with the guy I worked with before you.”

“Really?,” Doyoung sounded genuinely surprised, “Who did you work with?”

“Yuta. I can’t believe you haven’t heard him babble on to Jaehyun. I couldn’t get through a call without him spoiling an entire season of some anime for me.”

Doyoung pushed out a breath through his nose, and this time you were sure you could identify it as a laugh. “I guess I should have expected that,” he said, and his voice was significantly less tight.

There was another stretch of silence, but it wasn’t particularly uncomfortable.

“Oh, right,” Doyoung finally said, clearing his throat, “There is something actually business related I could tell you.”

“Alright, shoot.”

“I was going to send back down that A45 form for the affiliate application, but I guess there were some mix-ups.” Under his breath, you were sure you could hear, “Apparently billionaires need to be coached on how to sign on a line. It’s marked with an X, Christ’s sake.”

You laughed at that, too, and this time Jaehyun looked over. You didn’t notice, but he looked generally confused about why you laughed twice in one phone call with Doyoung on the other end.

“Anyway, I’ll give them a call back and see if they can-- I don’t know, read or something. I’ll call you later if something comes up.”

You hung up the phone and smiled to yourself. It didn’t last long.

“What was that about, hm?” came Jaehyun’s voice, laced with some sort of suspicion he had cultured in that brain cage of his.

You quirked an eyebrow at him. “Business as usual.”

“Uh huh,” he said, swiveling back to face his computer. You didn’t like the sound of that. Not one bit. Something told you that this was not the end of said conversation.

You turned back to the email you had been working on, but it was hard to concentrate. You found yourself stalling after every line, but couldn’t quite place why. With slow hands, you finally typed out the rest of the letter and sent it without proofreading. Decisively, you opened the top drawer of your desk and pulled out your phone. You started a text to Yuta.

[14:03] Y/N: yutaaaaa

[14:04] prince: What’s up, sunshine?

[14:04] Y/N: dinner. after work. assistance

[14:07] prince: Is this in reference to the Doyoung phone call I just witnessed the other half of?

[14:08] Y/N: wHA T T HE FUCKY ES

[14:08] Y/N: oh my god youre psychic arent you ohmgyod how could you not tell me

[14:10] prince: I’ll be at your house with wine at five thirty.

[14:10] Y/N: answer my question you clairvoyant cuck

The end of the work day drug on, and fifty minutes felt like decades before you could run out of the office. You sped through as much traffic as you could before passive-aggressively tapping your nails against the steering wheel at no one in particular. Despite the obvious inconvenience, sitting in rush hour traffic out of the business district did pose a new predicament; more time to think about your seemingly small interaction with your colleague. There was something charming about the whole situation.You didn’t want to get ahead of yourself, but he genuinely seemed sweet-- rough start and all. You hadn’t wanted to care as much about the notes as you let yourself think you should. It was almost a relief to know he placed weight on those tiny records the same way you did; maybe even more.

By the time you pulled into your parking structure, your stomach was flipping anew. It was less about Doyoung and more about the inevitable teasing you were going to receive from Yuta. There was a thrill to it, though. You hadn’t seen Yuta in much too long for your liking. For how much the two of you used to talk, you both had admittedly gotten caught up in the new contract and your new partners. You missed his snide remarks in a way that Jaehyun would never understand the way you did. Childish, sure, but you had a loving sense of possessiveness over your coworker.

You pulled your bag out of the passenger seat and made your way through the parking garage. As you walked, you pulled a fastener folder out and flipped it open. There wasn’t anything out of the ordinary, really. Demographics, charts, audience feedback. You flipped through them with something bordering on laziness as you climbed the stairs into your building.

Two sore legs and seven flights of stairs later, you arrived outside of your apartment door. You shoved the key into the metal door and pushed it open. Your dimly light studio apartment stared back at you. Your studio was L shaped, kitchen and living room as you walked in, and nook to left for your bed, dresser, and bathroom. You knew in the back of your head that you could move in at a nicer apartment, somewhere bigger and closer to work. But you liked this place. It was home to all the firsts you had out of high school. After landing the job at SM, you put down your down payment on this slice of urban block. You bought furniture, made your own meals, had adult sleepovers, all for the first time and on your own. Sure, the AC sucked sometimes, but that’s what top floor windows are for. And yeah, the large concrete tiles on the floor were freezing in the winter, but what else are you supposed to buy rugs for? You kicked off your shoes at the door and hung your coat on the rack.

No sooner had you dropped your bag and folder on the table as the door reverberated with a knock.There was a hustle in your step to open it.

The door swung open to reveal the smiling face of Yuta, in the flesh. He was holding a bottle of red wine and an attitude to match. You hugged and invited him in. The cold air from outside seemed to cling to him as you took his coat for him.

“How are you still in work clothes?” he asked, looking you up and down.

“I barely beat you home,” you said, running your hand through your hair, “I swear to god you’re a super-person or something. Super speed.”

“I think the word you’re looking for is super-hero,” Yuta laughed as he looked through your cupboards for wine glasses.

You scoffed at that, “Hardly.”

“Hey!” he whipped around to throw you a pointed look, but you were already headed for your dresser, ducking behind the corner.

You changed into sweats and and a loose t-shirt before finding your way back to the kitchen island. There was already a well filled glass of wine waiting for you. You climbed into one of the bar stools, tucking your feet up under yourself, and taking your glass. Yuta was leaned over the opposite side of the island.

The corner of Yuta’s lip quirked upward, “Spill.”

A blush crept up through your face and you smiled besides yourself. You hid behind your glass and took a sip. You noted absently that Yuta had great taste in wine.

“Well,” you started, putting your glass down on the counter, “What do you already know?”

“That is a dangerous question,” he leaned impossibly closer, swirling his wine with one hand, “What don’t I know?”

You rolled your eyes at his theatrics, “There are times when your psychic act has very blurry edges.”

You took the time to give Yuta a rundown of the situation, despite his ~psychic comment~. You started from the beginning, your first day working with him and the unpleasant conversation; moved on to talking about the notes you passed, feeling reminiscent of a high-schooler again; ended on today, talking on the phone and it being… nice? You felt dumb talking about your feelings for some reason. It wasn’t because of Yuta; even though the two of you could joke, he took your feelings very seriously. It was more to the point that all of this had been in your head before. Up until that point, the entire thing was abstract and fluid. Once it was said out loud, it felt final.

Yuta was quiet when you spoke, only piping up after you were done. “Why is this a bad thing?”

“It’s… not?” you said, bordering on a question. You didn’t know what you said that made it seem that way.

“I’m just asking because you look troubled,” Yuta tipped the rest of his wine into his mouth before pouring both of you a fresh glass.

You were suddenly aware of the tension you held in your features, brows taught and mouth turned slightly downwards. You did what you could to relax.

“Have you dated since high school, Y/N?” There was nonchalance in his voice, but the question felt loaded.

“I--,” you paused, taken aback, “No. I haven’t, I guess I-- I haven’t had time to date.”

“I’m only asking,” Yuta circled the counter to sit next to you, “Because it sounds like you have a crush.”

You laughed at that, actually laughed, deep in your chest. For some reason, the idea of it seemed outrageous, actually insane. You hadn’t even thought about someone in a similar context since your senior year. Somewhere along the way, you found that attraction was akin to weakness. In your profession, it was in your favor to be romantically unavailable. Regardless of how bad it sounded, when you were pitching an advertising campaign to a room full of single sponsors, being notably single yourself could be considered an… asset, so to speak.

“I do not have a crush,” the words felt juvenile coming out of your mouth.

Yuta quirked his brow at that, and that was what sent you over the edge.

“Fuck. I have a crush.”

“My point exactly,” he took a deliberate sip off his wine.

“Oh god,” you groaned, sitting back into your seat, “What am I supposed to do?”

Yuta smiled into his glass, “Ask him out for drinks. I think the whole thing is cute. And he’s quite the looker, anyway.”

“Is he?” You asked, picking your head up.

“Uh. Yeah? You don’t think so?” He looked genuinely confused.

“Well, how would I know?” There was a lace of exasperation through your words.

Yuta blanked at you, “Because you have eyes?”

It occurred to you then that you hadn’t mentioned a vital point.

“We’ve never-- we’ve never met in person.”

There was a clear moment of processing on Yuta’s end. You recognized you probably should have fronted with that info. He tipped back the rest of his second glass before he finally spoke again.

“This makes things more interesting,” he paused, then, “Didn’t he introduce himself to all the departments on his first day?”

“I was out sick,” you smiled sheepishly. Yuta saw through it.

“Hungover,” there was a tone in his voice like he finally put all the pieces together.

You nodded. It seemed like the only thing to do.

“If it’s any help, he is nice to look at.”

A laugh bubbled out of your lips besides yourself. Yuta was good at that.

“I mean,” he started, “It isn’t like it’s hopeless. We all work in the same building.”

“Yeah, but what excuse do I have to walk up to your department? Isn’t that weird?” you asked, feeling particularly lost on what exactly to do. “I was hoping he would just be awful and I would never have to bother with going up to meet him, but now it’s been too long, hasn’t it? Weeks, Yuta, weeks!”

There was a sigh and roll of eyes from your old partner. He clearly was not enthused with the melodrama.

“It really isn--,” he cut himself short and you could practically hear the gears in his head start working in reverse.

See, in Yuta’s mind, he had finally found it. The man loved his drama in whatever form he could get it; animes, k-dramas, telenovelas. And now, by god, he had his own! Right in front of his very eyes! The generally accepted right answer would have been along the lines of ‘No, there is never a bad time to stop by and say hello, it is completely normal.’ However, the fun answer was closer along the lines of something to keep him entertained.

“--Isn’t the right time to introduce yourself, I guess. I mean, everyone is busy with this merger right now, anyway. It’s not like you can’t afterwards, though.” He sent a sympathetic look your way.

You threw your head back and groaned. Of course Yuta was right! You glanced across the counter at the thick file of take-home work you had to do this weekend and quickly landed on the fact that you did not need to be looking into romantic interests at that time. Everyone in the entire building was overloaded, not excluding the secretaries (which caused a mental not to take Donghyuck coffee on Monday).

You rolled your head back upright and checked the clock on your microwave. It was already seven thirty, and the late fall sun was already down.

“Are you hungry?” You decided to take a break from the Doyoung topic.

“Famished.”

“Pizza?”

“You read my mind.”

“Looks like you aren’t the only psychic around here,” you shot him a playful wink, “You planning on staying the night?”

Yuta stretched and checked his watch, “Only if you don’t mind.”

“Never,” you smiled at him. “You can change into some of my pajamas.”

He flashed a wolfish grin at you, “Lingerie?”

“If you’re so brave,” you laughed.

Yuta went off to change and you ordered the pizza. An hour and more wine later, the pizza had arrived and you and Yuta were both bundled up on your bed, halfway through Spirited Away playing on your laptop at the foot of the bed. He had not, in fact, rummaged through your delicates. He had emerged out of your bathroom in an old pair of sweatpants and a t-shirt that was decidedly more snug on his frame than yours. The situation was comfortable, crumbs in bed and all. You tipped your head on to his shoulder, and he leaned his temple against your crown. You archived the moment into reasons why you loved your friend.

On screen, No Face had begun luring the workers with gold. You quirked your head up slightly to look at Yuta, who was looking at something on his phone.

“How’s logistics been?” you asked quietly.

Yuta locked his phone and looked down at you, “It’s been busy. Jae’s a pain.”

“Preaching to the choir, Yuta. At least you get to hang up the phone.” You felt Yuta’s chest rumble against your side.

“No shit. I don’t know how I would have managed if I still had to babysit both of you.”

You scoffed. “You love me anyway.”

“On the good days.” You thumped his chest for that one. You were rewarded with a half-assed, mumbled apology.

“Doyoung is good,” you said, “Funny, too, the more I get to know him.”

Yuta made an amused noise, somewhere between a hum and a sigh. “I think he likes you, too.”

“Yeah?”

“Yeah,” he adjusted his arm to rest over your shoulder instead of between you, “That conversation earlier today was pretty telling. Never see him smile on the phone more than he does with you.”

It was quiet for a few minutes, save for the noise of the movie.

“What does he look like?” you asked without thinking.

“Handsome,” he pulled the blankets closer to himself. “Even by my standards. Tall, too, maybe six foot? Good nose, strong jaw, pale skin. Really big eyes. Nice style. Great hair, too, almost better than mine. Wears glasses sometimes.”

“There’s an easier way of saying that,” Yuta looked down at you, confused. “You can say he’s out of my league.”

You received a slap on the arm for that.

It was starting to to hit that you were tired. The work week and the wine were catching up with you. You pulled the comforter up closer to your chin and turned tighter towards the warmth that was Yuta. Somehow you felt better and worse than you had when you left the office. Better, because at least you had someone who knew about the situation with you, but also worse, because you had a newfound crush and no plan of action. You tried to keep your stomach from turning with anxiety.

You woke up to the sun shining through your apartment and onto your face. From the kitchen, you could hear Yuta searching through your cabinets again. You pulled yourself upright and tried not to groan.

After passive-aggressively throwing the curtains closed you found your way to the kitchen. Yuta smiled at you and handed you a warm mug of coffee.

“Figured I’d make you some liquid energy before I head out,” He smiled, tapping his mug against yours.

You took a sip, “Off so soon?”

“I’ve got a hot date at noon, and I would like to look relatively presentable,” he winked at you.

“And I thought it was something I said,” you quipped back playfully. “But really, thanks for hearing me out about my dumb office drama. It means a lot.”

“Any time, you know that.”

“So who is this date with, anyway?”

If you hadn’t known him better, you would have missed the soft rosiness that nipped at the tips of his ears. “Too soon to tell you.”

You raised your eyebrow at that, “Trying to flesh him out first?”

“Don’t want to waste your time if he turns out to be a bust, that’s all.”

“Sure,” you humored him, pressing your knuckles to the mug to warm them.

He shot you a knowing look. You knew it wouldn’t be a bust, but you also knew Yuta loved his fairy-tales. You could handle that.

“I should get going,” he said after a moment. He placed his then empty mug in the sink. “Mind if I hold onto these clothes till I see you next?”

You waved him off, taking another sip off of your coffee. “I don’t care. Look better on you, anyway.”

He beamed at that, hitting some ridiculous pose. You both laughed and you helped him with his jacket. After a quick goodbye and a hug, he was out the door and gone.

Your apartment was quiet again, leaving you with the feeling you always got after you had guests around; loneliness. It wasn’t too often that you thought about it in detail, but something about that morning was different. You thought about what it would be like if after company left, you weren’t alone. If you always had someone there. To be clear, you never took your platonic interactions for granted. You never really wanted anything more out of them either, regardless of who it was. You didn’t know where you were going with your thoughts, but it was early and confusing. You finished the rest of your coffee in silence, looking out the window at the urban landscape.

Soon enough after, you decided it was time to get your Saturday-morning-self together. You took a longer shower than necessary, taking the time to look over yourself. Yuta’s description of Doyoung crept into your head and you found yourself looking at yourself, more carefully than usual. He seemed so perfect, the way your friend described him. You ran your hands up your sides and pulled at the skin on your hips. For the first time in a very long time, you were self conscious of your body, and you couldn’t place why. It wasn’t like anything had changed. Hell, Doyoung didn’t even know what you looked like. But, therein was the problem, wasn’t it? What if he didn’t like the way you looked? You dipped your head and rubbed at the tension in your shoulders. You were getting way ahead of yourself. You barely knew him.

You stepped out of the shower and put on clothes, simple. Jeans, an old shirt. It didn’t matter what you looked like, you were working from home. You poured yourself another cup of coffee and picked your laptop off the foot of the bed. The file from yesterday was still on the island in the kitchen, so that’s where you decided to set up camp.

As you were waiting for your laptop to boot up, you pulled the file closer to yourself. The paperwork was still there, too much work for two days. You looked over the reports again. You flipped to the final spreadsheet and a paper behind it shifted, one you hadn’t seen before. You squinted at it like it was an intruder. With careful hands, you pulled the new paper out from the folder. Of all things, you hadn’t expected this.

In your hands was a flyer to the company holiday party. ‘SM Entertainment Annual Holiday Party.’ You had known the party was happening. It was the talk of the entire building for the whole season of fall; Ten wouldn’t shut up about it, and Jaehyun had already asked you to color coordinate with him. The party and the flyer were not the surprising things. The sticky note with clean, familiar handwriting that was attached to it was.

Y/N,

Are you going? My old building

never hosted parties like this. It

would be nice to see a familiar

face there. Or voice, I suppose.

-DY

You stared at the note for a long moment. This? This changed things.

[perfectirishgifts]

Risk Horsemen Back In Saddle To Start Week Amid Rise In Virus Cases, Shutdown Fears

New Post has been published on https://perfectirishgifts.com/risk-horsemen-back-in-saddle-to-start-week-amid-rise-in-virus-cases-shutdown-fears/

Risk Horsemen Back In Saddle To Start Week Amid Rise In Virus Cases, Shutdown Fears

Getty Images

Key Takeaways:

Early pressure in place after a rough weekend of rising virus caseloads

Washington, London in focus with Brexit, shutdown deadlines approaching

Signs of “risk-off” to start week with volatility, bonds moving higher

For the first time in five weeks, investors face a Monday lacking any fresh vaccine developments.

Without that—at least not yet—the market may have to find other reasons to justify rallying. So far it hasn’t. Stocks are in the red thanks in part to another rough weekend of rising virus caseloads across much of the country. Risk aversion appears to be back for the moment as bonds and volatility climb (see more below).

Aside from the sad news about Covid-19 and growing fears of shutdowns hurting the economy, it feels kind of like old home week. China trade was recently back in the news, and now Brexit and a possible U.S. government shutdown are potentially on the agenda. If you didn’t know any better, you might think it was 2019 all over again.

Brexit talks are apparently making some progress, Bloomberg reported Sunday. The U.K. will leave the European Union on Dec. 31—with or without an agreement. The latest debate is over fishing rights, of all things. Both the European and U.K. parliaments need to ratify any accord, and a “no-agreement” Brexit wouldn’t necessarily be the most bullish way to start the new year.

Neither would a U.S. government shutdown. Congress has until Dec. 11 to try and avert that, so just four days. That’s getting wrapped together now with stimulus talks, which are likely to be a big focus this week.

With so much on edge, volatility began a comeback overnight. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) popped above 22 after flirting with 20 last week. Risk-off also looked evident in the bond market where the 10-year yield edged down a couple of basis points.

Late-Season Earnings

You might assume mid-December is a slow time for earnings, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing worth checking this week.

Companies reporting include homebuilder Toll Brothers TOL (TOL) expected later today, and Adobe ADBE (ADBE), Broadcom AVGO (AVGO), Costco (COST), lululemon (LULU), and Oracle ORCL (ORCL) over the next few days. That’s actually a pretty decent list, though things get really slow the last two weeks of the year.

ORCL, in particular, may be worth a close look. It’s not a sexy company, just reliable. How they perform can provide clues into cloud business demand, even if ORCL’s business isn’t quite up there with some of the more high-flying companies they compete against. The other thing to remember about ORCL is that they’re one of those well-established multinational companies that can give a great indication not just about what’s going on in the U.S. but worldwide. So consider listening to their call.

Dollar, 10-Year Yield Flirting with Lows and Highs

Two other things to monitor this week are closely related: The U.S. dollar and interest rates. The dollar index is at its lowest point since the spring of 2018, while the 10-year yield approached 1% on Friday.

Both tell the story of economies gaining steam. The soft dollar (see chart below) partly reflects hope for strength in overseas economies (the euro is now at 31-month highs vs. the dollar), while higher rates suggest that hope is growing for Congress to provide stimulus. Of course, the dollar softness also could reflect stimulus hopes, too, because if Congress acts it means more currency being thrown at the economy.

The question is whether that psychological 1% level for the 10-year yield spooks anyone trading stocks. It might for a day or two, but that’s not necessarily something to worry about. Remember, the 10-year yield was trading near 2% when everything went haywire last winter, and the economy had been rolling along pretty nicely.

As longer-term rates rise, the spread between the longer end and shorter end of the yield curve continues to stretch. By the end of the day Friday, the 2-year/10-year spread hit a 2020 high of 83 basis points. You might expect Financials to get a nice lift out of that news, and they did rise more than 1% Friday. That put them near the top of the sector leaderboard, but way behind Energy’s 5% gains.

Another tracker to follow is VIX, which keeps nearing 20 but also keeps having trouble dipping below it. Maybe this is finally going to be the week when it finds a way to get down below 20 and stay there for a while, something that hasn’t happened in 10 months. We’ve come a long way from those 80 readings back in March, so the market feels like a much less turbulent place.

CHART OF THE DAY: SHADES OF 2018. The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) continues to weaken to levels last … [] seen in April 2018. It’s trading below its 10-day simple moving average (blue line) which is trending lower. If you look back to 2018, $DXY went as low as 89, which could potentially be the next support level. Data source: ICE Data Services. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform from TD Ameritrade. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

A Stocking Full of Fresh IPOs: All the focus on stimulus and vaccines has overshadowed what an amazing year we’ve had for initial public offerings (IPOs). The number of U.S. IPOs spiked from last year despite Covid-19, Barron’s said. The total may approach 200, which would even top the tally from 2018—an incredibly strong IPO year. This year has seen the most money raised for U.S. IPOs since 2014.

Potentially adding to that list as soon as later this week are anticipated IPOs of DoorDash (DASH) and Airbnb (ABNB). Airbnb plans to target a range of around $39 billion to $42 billion, while DoorDash will seek a valuation of around $25 billion to $28 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported recently.

It also looks like 2021 could shape up as a big year for new offerings, so stay on your toes and remember that it helps to keep a cautious outlook on IPOs in general. Their stock prices don’t always live up to the pre-IPO hype, so know what you’re getting into, and don’t buy a stock just because you love the company’s product.

Jobs Report Redux: Taking a look back at Friday’s jobs report, there’s no escaping that disappointing headline number of 245,000, down from a revised 610,000 the previous month. However, a closer check reveals it wasn’t necessarily as bad as it seemed, in part because a chunk of the lost jobs came from the U.S. government as the 2020 Census count wrapped up.

One piece of good news that got a bit lost in the shuffle was the Labor Department reporting hourly wages up 0.3% in November and 4.4% year-over-year. That’s solid growth and could imply that the people still working aren’t all doing it for less pay. Even in normal times, a 4.4% annual pay raise would look pretty darn good for most people.

Why did stocks get a lift from disappointing job creation? It goes back to the same thing we used to see when the Fed didn’t have rates at zero. If we were in a normal rate situation and jobs data dipped, the market would tend to jump on hopes the Fed would be more dovish. Now the Fed is already as dovish as it can get, so the market jumped Friday on hopes that the bad jobs number would light a fire under Congress on fiscal stimulus. A package before the holidays looks a bit more in the realm of possibility today than it did before the jobs report.

Next Steps for Tech Darlings: Even if Tech doesn’t dominate the way it’s been, there’s little doubt that some of the habits people picked up during the pandemic aren’t going away. That’s arguably good news for some of the smaller Tech companies whose stocks really shot the moon this year like Zoom (ZM) and Docusign DOCU (DOCU). A lot of companies no one had heard of a year ago are part of everyone’s daily life. This doesn’t mean you’ll never take a flight again, or get a home loan. But people are much more comfortable working remotely, so it’s not like ZM will lose all its users once we reopen the economy.

The question could end up being how do companies like ZM monetize and create efficiencies and leverage multiple platforms into one offering? A lot of these small companies thought they had a few years to get that done, but they’ve had everything pulled forward due to the pandemic and now investors don’t seem happy just to hear about more monthly users. The ones who have trouble monetizing might be the ones who get swept up in future consolidation, as we just saw with Salesforce CRM (CRM) scooping up Slack (WORK). Look out for more of that, possibly, in 2021.

TD Ameritrade® commentary for educational purposes only. Member SIPC.

More from Markets in Perfectirishgifts

[deadcactuswalking]

REVIEWING THE CHARTS: 28/11/2020

Huh... I expected a busier week this week but I probably got what was ahead of me just a bit earlier this week instead of anything that feels contemporary or currently relevant. I mean, yes, we do have three top 10 debuts but that’s as far as our stories go in terms of the big singles and albums I expected to have some kind of less muted impact on the chart. The big issue here is that I didn’t consider how much of a chaotic mess 2020 has been, so people really want to get straight to the festivities, if you catch my drift. Hence, with four weeks until Christmas, and a Christmas that for a lot of people will be a lot different thanks to you-know-what, we have a lot more of the holiday stuff crashing in earlier and harder than I or anyone expected. It’s still November, guys, calm down. Anyway, Ariana Grande’s “positions” spends a fifth week at #1 and welcome back to REVIEWING THE CHARTS.

Rundown

As always, here’s a brief rundown of what’s going on. Most of this rundown for the UK Top 75 will be holiday music, so I might as well run through the returning entries and climbers first. We have “One More Sleep” by Leona Lewis at #72, “Merry Xmas Everybody” by Slade at #69, “I Wish it Could be Christmas Everyday” by WIzzard at #61, “Driving Home for Christmas” by Chris Rea at #55, “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” by Brenda Lee at #52, “Step into Christmas” by Elton John at #49, “Underneath the Tree” by Kelly Clarkson at #46, “HOLIDAY” by Lil Nas X up to #42 off of the debut, the horribly racist and despicably awful “Do they Know it’s Christmas?” by Band Aid at #38, “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas” by Michael Bublé at #35, “Merry Christmas Everyone” by Shakin’ Stevens at #33 and then some big gains for the Christmas songs that were already here, like “Fairytale of New York” by the Pogues featuring the late Kirsty MacColl at #26 having the biggest rise of the week (there’s always controversy surrounding that song each year so it tends to surge high – also it’s an incredible song), “Last Christmas” by WHAM! at #20 and “All I Want for Christmas is You” by Mariah Carey already up to #14. That doesn’t mean there weren’t other gains and returning entries of course, in fact, we have some big ones, those being “Plugged in Freestyle” by Fumez the Engineer and A92 inexplicably making its way up to #39 because Irish drill is always good for the holidays I suppose. Speaking of drill, “Whoopty” by CJ is at #12 and “Loading” by Central Cee is at #34. “Get Out My Head” by Shane Codd also enjoyed continued gains up to #24. Thanks to BTS releasing their umpteenth album Be, the lead single “Dynamite” is back at #37 – more on them later. Oddly, thanks to the PlayStation 5 of all things, “Sunflower (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse)” by Post Malone and Swae Lee returns to #30. I mean, okay, sure, it could be a worse song at that spot. Naturally, however, we have some big fallers and drop-outs because of this, so I’ll list them off starting with the fallers. Nothing survives Christmas music, and especially with UK chart rules, streaming cuts and a BTS album, everyone suffers, but especially hip-hop and R&B. In no particular categories, here’s our mish-mash of fallers: “Lemonade” by Internet Money featuring Don Toliver, Gunna and NAV at #22, “Giants” by Dermot Kennedy at #28, “What You Know Bout Love” by Pop Smoke at #29, “i miss u” by Jax Jones and Au/Ra at #31, “UFO” by D-Block Europe featuring Aitch at #32. “Holy” by Justin Bieber and Chance the Rapper at #40, “WAP” by Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion at #41, “Princess Cuts” by Headie One featuring Young T & Bugsey at #43, “Looking for Me” by Paul Woodford, Diplo and Kareen Lomax at #45, “Lasting Lover” by Sigala and James Arthur at #47, “Come Over” by Rudimental featuring Anne-Marie and Tion Wayne at #50, “Ain’t it Different” by Headie One featuring AJ Tracey and Stormzy at #51, “Holiday” by Little Mix at #53 (Wrong type of holiday), “Chingy (It’s Whatever)” by Digga D at #54, “Come Over” by Jorja Smith featuring Popcaan at #56, “Tick Tock” by Clean Bandit featuring Mabel and 24kGoldn at #57, “SO DONE” by The Kid LAROI at #58, “One Too Many” by Keith Urban and P!nk at #59, Jason Derulo’s “Take You Dancing” and “Savage Love (Laxed – Siren Beat)” with Jawsh 685 at #60 and #62 respectively, “Watermelon Sugar” by Harry Styles at #64, “Mood Swings” by the late Pop Smoke featuring Lil Tjay at #67, “Deluded” by Tion Wayne and MIST at #68, “Someone You Loved” by Lewis Capaldi at #70, “Lighter” by Nathan Dawe and KSI at #71, “Heat Waves” by Glass Animals at #73, “Papi Chulo” by Octavian and Skepta at #74, and “Confetti” by Little Mix at #75. Honestly, I can’t find much to complain about here, other than maybe “Lemonade” or “Princess Cuts”, but a lot of these were either some of the biggest hits of the year or just songs hurt prematurely by the festive season. Oh, and there’s also drop-outs from the UK Top 75 ranging in degrees of importance. Here’s just the notable ones: “Straight Murder (Giggs & David)” by Giggs featuring Dave, “Dreams” by Fleetwood Mac, “Stop Crying Your Heart Out” by BBC Children in Need off the top 10 debut last week and some over major hits from the Autumn-Winter season in 2020, like “Put Your Records On” by Ritt Momney, “Daisy” by Ashnikko, “For the Night” by the late Pop Smoke featuring Lil Baby and DaBaby, “Laugh Now Cry Later” by Drake featuring Lil Durk and three genuinely massive #1 hits and songs that will represent 2020 on a wider historical scale: “ROCKSTAR” by DaBaby featuring Roddy Ricch after 31 weeks, “Before You Go” by Lewis Capaldi after 52 weeks and finally, “Dance Monkey” by Tones and I after 67 weeks. Okay, so “ROCKSTAR” is the only good song there but I’ll talk about these tracks in my end-of-year lists, if those happen. Now we’ve gotten through all of that, let’s discuss our new arrivals.

NEW ARRIVALS

#66 – “Blue & Grey” – BTS

Produced by Ji Soo Park, Levi, V and Hiss Noise

No, I haven’t listened to that new BTS record, even if it’s just six new songs, “Dynamite” and a skit. I don’t mind BTS or K-pop as a whole but I do like my pop music with a bit of personality that I find a lot of these idol groups kind of lack. That doesn’t mean they can’t have infectious and good songs, however, and that also doesn’t mean that they can’t display actual emotion because this song is directly about anxiety, depression and especially artist burn-out, which is a topic of all bands BTS should know well. Reading the English-translated lyrics, despite a clear language barrier, some of these lyrics are pretty poetic and I do like the use of colour imagery. Some of the lyrics seem odd, probably because if I were a Korean speaker I’d pick it up more naturally, but SUGA’s first verse is pretty concise and effective, using this metaphor of a blue question mark over his head, and J-Hope gets into some unexpected biblical territory and goes on this admittedly emo-pop trajectory that I kind of vibe with. The song itself is actually less sonically interesting than I expected, being a mostly melancholic acoustic guitar-based ballad that sure, has some pretty nice acoustic pick-ups, but doesn’t really lay an interesting enough foundation in the verses for them to flow over, especially with the awkward 808 bass and strings that are honestly a lot prettier than any of the instruments further to the front of mix. The boys sound mostly fine, and the chorus is really nicely sung, but J-Hope’s aggressive delivery and charismatic inflections, as well as some clever mixing, make his verse the clear stand-out here, at least in my opinion. For what it is, this is a damn good attempt at tackling these subjects to a young audience and I respect it, even if its meaning gets lost in imagery and could be a bit skewed thanks to how the song’s written. Otherwise, yeah, this is nice.

#65 – “Move On” – Lil Tjay

Produced by Avery on the Beat

You know, it’s odd that we have such scattered new arrivals this week and they all seem to be concentrated in little bubbles at opposite extremes of the chart. These first three are damn near consecutive and in the top 10... Well, you’ll see. For now, we have Lil Tjay of all people debuting on the chart with what seems to be the biggest single from that upcoming second record. I’m not a big fan of the guy, in fact I think he kind of ruined Polo G’s “Pop Out”, but the lead single, “Losses” was pretty okay, and I haven’t looked far enough into his work to really make a judgement. Also, despite being a typical New York Auto-Tune crooner kind of on the same level as A Boogie wit da Hoodie, he has a connection with the drill side of New York, and has collaborations with people like Fivio Foreign and the late Pop Smoke. This doesn’t really show any of that, however, rather going for a break-up track where Tjay feels like he’s going against his deeper instinct to move on from his ex-partner, even if he admits the relationship was toxic. It doesn’t help Tjay’s narrative that the song is borderline unlistenable, though. He decides to sing the ad-libs and some parts of the chorus in this tedious and nasal cadence even worse than his usual whiny voice, which is mixed way too high and he’s still somehow completely unintelligible under the layers of ugly Auto-Tune and reverb on the echoed background vocals. Also, this beat is based on a cheap acoustic guitar loop with a stiff trap skitter planted on top and bass mastering so terrible Lil Baby would be jealous of it. By the time the beat brings in some interesting electric guitar riffs, it’s fading out, and it is absolutely a sensory overload in the verses. I don’t mind the content here at all, but yeah, this sounds awful in almost every regard. Also, since this is our only “rap” song here, where’s Megan Thee Stallion’s album on the chart? Not even “Body”? Huh, I guess that’s why you shouldn’t release in the holiday season.

#63 – “This Christmas” – Jess Glynne

Produced by ???

Jess Glynne produced a cover of the Donny Hathaway classic and uploaded it as an exclusive to Amazon Music for no reason other than potentially driving up sales for that Christmas #1. It worked with Ellie Goulding’s “River” last year (which wasn’t even a Christmas song, just a Joni Mitchell cover), so let’s hope she doesn’t succeed this time. It is on YouTube, so I won’t protest that much, but honestly, why would you want to hear Jess Glynne’s cover over the Hathaway classic, with his smooth, buttery voice, soaring strings and lest we forget the pianos, bongos and that gorgeous horn section that make the relaxed single an absolute classic and one of the best options for Christmas pop, especially in the more R&B sector. With her recognisable but generic smoky-indie-girl voice, plastic-ass production on the horns, strings and especially the digital production, Jess Glynne’s cover isn’t modernised or revived, it just feels gentrified. It tries to go for a guitar solo but it’s in the back of the mix and lasts for like five seconds so what’s even the point? Lil Tjay’s song may have been terrible but this offends me more on a personal level for whatever reason, probably because I am opposed to how commercialised and cultural Christmas is nowadays, which makes the best, more grounded and down-to-Earth Christmas songs the best written and those with the most longevity... at least I think so. This won’t last, though, it’s “I Love Sausage Rolls”-tier Christmas track, and I hope it fades away soon enough.

#48 – “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” – Justin Bieber

Produced by honestly, who cares?

Merry Christmas, happy holidays, and (censored)ing end me. At least Jess Glynne can convincingly sell a Christmas track with her smoky, warm and powerful voice, and, you know, at least the woman can SING! Justin Bieber making a Christmas song is completely expected after his born-again-Christian ass got married and settled down with his new family, and this is pretty obvious in his songs. I mean, “Holy” is practically already a Christmas song, and even with that, it takes a more interesting Christian angle and is mostly about marriage and relationships. Bieber has made Christmas music before, yes, but as a Disney-like child star just to sell records for his big conglomerate... and wow, how Bieber hasn’t changed, since THIS is a soulless cover of the Brenda Lee classic exclusive to Amazon bloody Music. It’s not even on YouTube in full so what’s the point of listening to this all? What is the use of this? It’s not going to charity, it’s less widely-available than the original and as far as we know, it’s not connected to a wider Bieber Christmas release. When Katy Perry pulled this schtick last year, at least she had an original song – and a good one at that – to back it up. If you’re going to sell your soul to the industry devil to attempt to get a sappy Christmas song out to the public so your name creeps back into the household, at least be upfront about it, and not hiding behind your Amazon Music subscriptions. The worst part is how this is actually charting higher than Brenda Lee’s rendition. Bieber, you soulless industry puppet, put your Goddamned song on Spotify or Apple, or just don’t make it at all. You already have a Christmas standard in the form of “Mistletoe”, and that one actually kind of bumps in the sleigh, so why are you doing this? God, I’m praying for an actually good song on this chart any moment now.

#10 – “Life Goes On” – BTS

Produced by Pdogg

You could describe BTS in a lot of ways, but “alternative hip hop” isn’t what I would have expected. Thanks for that, Rolling Stone India. Anyway, this is the big album-release single from the record, and it’s about you-know-what, but more specifically finding comfort, safety and happiness during chaotic world events. They made a speech at the 75th United Nations General Assembly, because of course they did, and this was their main message: “Life goes on, let’s live on”. Honestly, it’s not a bad message and something that people do need to hear right now, even if it is more of a blanket statement than anything too specific or meaningful, and, you know what, that will definitely help this song’s longevity. I mean, that vaccine’s on its way... right? Either way, this song is pretty good. I do like that chipmunk vocal sample playing against the slick acoustic strumming – I understand this sound is all over the album – and both the falsettos from members like Jungkook and RM’s deep rap cadences work pretty well over a beat that, whilst lacking the punch you’d want for a song like this, does a good job at expressing that wish to find serenity and be calm when... you know, 2020 is happening. SUGA’s verse is short, pointless and kind of just there to get all the boys on one track, especially since he’s not really flowing that well here. It reminds me kind of how they want all of the Backstreet Boys to get on the big single to appeal to each and every fan, even if the clear stand-outs of personality will have the most success. For BTS though, I don’t see that, and I think they pretty clearly work best together when they compile all of their ideas into a mellow albeit pretty motivational track like this. I absolutely love those harmonies from Jimin and V in the outro, and whilst I don’t see this sticking around on the charts, I’ll stick around in my playlist, which is more than I can usually say for whenever the Korean lads pop up on the chart. This is our first of three consecutive top 10 entries this week though, so let’s keep going.

#9 – “Monster” – Shawn Mendes and Justin Bieber

Produced by Frank Dukes, Kaan Gunesberk and Matthew Tavares

Oh... he’s back. Well, okay, Shawn Mendes sounds pretty nice over this trip-hop-adjacent steady drum beat and the really pretty, cloudy guitars, as well as some of the harmonies they end up having and the distorted guitar by the end and... man, I know “Wonder” flopped but I don’t see this sticking around either. It’s just a nothingness track and while I do like the more specific content about the uncertainties of fame and the music industry, even from the Biebs, Sure, this is pleasant but it’s clearly just radio filler and since radio doesn’t factor into the UK’s charts, I see this as a pretty profound refusal of wanting an actual hit from both Shawn and whoever that guy is next to him on the cover art. I was wondering on how to actually write this segment since I really have nothing to say about this song at all other than that. I was thinking of ignoring Bieber’s presence but that would actually give me less to talk about, so... “Monster” by Kanye West is one of his most hard-hitting tracks and definitely one of his best brag-rap bangers, with an iconic verse from Nicki Minaj and admittedly middling input from JAY-Z and Rick Ross, all stuck together by the minimal, tribal percussion that lets everyone go off and be a bit more unorthodox, as well as Bon Iver’s eerie voice caressing this beat in the intro and outro. Let’s get even newer for a song from this year, like King Princess’ beautiful piano ballad “Monster” that does a damn great job at representing the characters it was made for, those being Marceline and Princess Bubblegum from Adventure Time. I’ve yet to watch Distant Lands because I want to re-watch at least the essential episodes from the original series before, but I am excited to see these characters again and in a different light. 21 Savage’s “monster” featuring Childish Gambino is a pretty damn good trap track, with an unexpected rap verse from Gambino, Paramore making a song called “Monster” for the Transformers soundtrack is the most late-2000s thing that has ever occurred – in 2011, no less, uh, I like the “Monster Mash”. I think there’s an Eminem song in there somewhere, I don’t know. Look, you get the point, I hope that’s enough stalling. Let’s get to that final song.

#8 – “Prisoner” – Miley Cyrus featuring Dua Lipa

Produced by the Monsters & Strangerz and watt

So, Miley Cyrus was a Disney teen pop star and has since been trying to carve out her musical identity to varying degrees of success, but most transitions to styles have been largely unsuccessful in terms of creating a long-term sound. You have the dance-pop, club and hip-hop-adjacent party tracks on Bangerz, the psychedelic “avant-garde” era of Miley Cyrus and Her Dead Petz, the soft country-pop ballads on Younger Now, the ugly alternative R&B-trap-RuPaul-featuring garbage on She is Coming and finally her new, new wave sound, which can be seen in his most polished form on Plastic Hearts and its two singles, “Midnight Sky” and “Prisoner”. Miley is getting a whole bunch of sounds from a lot of different genres and styles going around in the late 1970s and early 1980s, such as the hard rock, pop rock and even punk rock styles all gaining a lot of popularity at the time, and has fused them with disco and modern production to make what is basically a Blondie album if they still had their stuff together in 2020. She has got legends on this album though, like Joan Jett, Billy Idol and even Stevie Nicks of Fleetwood Mac, and honestly I really like how she’s making a female-fronted rock album that is written and performed really well and honestly should probably be her style going forward if she wants to stick with the longevity. I mean, look at “Midnight Sky”, it’s literally still at #7 staring in the face of its successor, “Prisoner”. Much like Lipa’s own “Physical”, this track interpolates Olivia Newton-John’s classic of the same name (that kind of sucks in retrospect), and does a better job than “Physical”, where Dua Lipa has much more of a presence over the drum machines and that minimal bassline that runs through the chorus really well alongside the strings and swells of guitar. This is dance-able, sure, but it’s more of a showcase of Lipa’s swagger and Cyrus’ raspy tone that really works on this album. That pre-chorus is great, especially the second time where Lipa goes solo for that last line. Honestly, my only complaint is the bridge / outro, which feels pretty under-cooked, and that there should be more inter-play between the characters on display here. Other than that, yeah, this kicks ass, and I’m just grateful this song is here and as high as it is, especially on a week like this.

Conclusion

Now, is it completely fair to give Worst of the Week to a song I can only legally listen to 15 seconds of? Yes. Absolutely. It’s going to Justin Bieber’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” on pure cynicism alone. Dishonourable Mention goes to Lil Tjay for “Move On” being an earache, with the Honourable Mention going to “Life Goes On” by BTS for just being solid all around. It’s pretty obvious where Best of the Week lies, though, so yes, it is going to “Prisoner” by Miley Cyrus featuring Dua Lipa, and it really wasn’t even close. Here’s our top 10 for this week:

Follow me on Twitter @cactusinthebank if you want to give me more undeserved clout and I’ll see you next week.

[doomedandstoned]

ELDER

Rallies Russia!

-Review: Nick DiSalvo | Forward: Billy Goate-

-Photos: Mo Nemo | Film: Anton Rodionov-

"The funny thing I've noticed about Russians is how reserved they can be, but then when the music is playing they are going crazy, moshing or stage diving, and crowd surfing the whole time."

Earlier this month, Doomed & Stoned brought you a two-part feature on Acid King's first ever appearance in the Russian Federation. Now, we are pleased to present the sights and sounds of another cross-continental concert tour, that of the mighty ELDER.

You're looking at another stunner of a photoset from the young Saint Petersburg photographer Mo Nemo, snapped at Elder's MOD Club show on August 3rd, 2017. The night before, Nick DiSalvo (vocals, guitar), Jack Donovan (bass), Matt Couto (drums), and new member Michael Risberg (guitar) played at The Volta in Moscow. The Re-Stoned, a band we've long touted as a prime example of Russian heavy psychedelic rock, opened on that particular evening. Ilya Lipkin (guitar), Vladimir Kislyakov (bass), and Andrey Pristavka (drums) performed a sublime series of songs from their recent LP, 'Reptiles Return' (2016). It was, of course, time for Elder to show off fresh tracks, too, namely selections from the new album that topped the Doom Charts: 'Reflections Of A Floating World' (2017 - Stickman Records).

By all accounts, the setlist included almost all the songs from Reflections..., including "Sanctuary," "The Falling Veil," "Staving Off Truth," "Blind," and "Thousand Hands." Let me tell you, that second guitarist has sure come in handy in pulling these off! The band also played what is now a bonafide hit: "Compendium" off of 'Lore' (2015 - Armageddon Shop). That song in many ways foreshadowed the complexity of the new material. Then there was the beloved "Gemini" from 'Dead Roots Stirring' (2011 - MeteorCity Records), which no Elder performance would quite be complete without.

I reached out to frontman Nick DiSalvo this week for comment on their trip. "Well," he replied, "I can certainly share some thoughts about Russia in a stream of consciousness sort of way with you." That was just fine by me, and I invited Nick to give us all a first-hand account of his band's visit to this land rich in vodka, literature, political intrigue, and most of all music. My piano teacher, who came to the US from Russia for her doctorate degree, is a disciplinarian. From her I've gotten an idea of how seriously Russians take the art and the science of music. You'll find this quite easy to confirm both anecdotally and historically.

How, then, would heavy music fans of the Moscow and Saint Petersburg underground take to the soaring progressive stylings of these four ambitious muzykanty from the States? The next words your read will be from Nick's tablet...

We've been to Russia twice now, both times in the same cities (Moscow and St Petersburg). I can only assume that sounds as fascinating to most American readers as it was for us. I think we have a very biased view of Russia in the States and assume that the country is very "foreign." Let me tell you, that's definitely not the case in these two cities -- two of the biggest in Europe (if you want to count Russia as part of Europe). We're lucky to work with a really cool promotions team over there called Madstream. Their guys Andrey and Vadim have surprised us with their professionalism and hospitality that's truly a leg up from the rest of Europe, even. That's really saying something, since most European clubs and promoters treat bands amazingly.

We had an early flight in from Milan to Moscow and were pretty whacked out after an hour and half drive from the airport through the city to the venue. The city never ends! The sprawl of Moscow is truly awe-inspiring, not necessarily in the best way.

In Saint Petersburg (band photo)

We got in for soundcheck at the venue Volta. Big stage. The club could be suited for any kind of gig and certainly doesn't give off the dingy rock club vibes (except for the makeshift water closet backstage that really does remind you you're in Eastern Europe). Soundcheck is fine and we retire to a long forgotten luxury for a few hours, the hotel, to catch some sleep.

I sleep through my alarm and wake up to Mike jostling me, since we need to get back for bus call. This is different for us, getting shuttled around to hotels and back. Normally, we travel in a sort of converted camper van and a stationary bed and shower are truly a treat. I don't know how many fans we really have in Russia, in Moscow maybe 200-250 people come to the show. For a city of 20 million I'd say that it's not much, but the scene is really just developing here.

The fans who do come are rabid and we get a rare taste of what it must be like to play in a famous band. Leave the backstage area and everyone grabs you, wants a photo, an autograph, to tell you an anecdote, and you realize the bizarre and fantastic nature of your situation: an American band in Russia surrounded by people who are just like you, music enthusiasts stoked on a concert. The funny thing I've noticed about Russians is how reserved they can be, but then when the music is playing they are going crazy, moshing or stage diving, and crowd surfing the whole time.

Welcome Package! (band photo)

A nice photographer we met on our previous trip is backstage and gives us some gifts: a bottle of vodka, some matchboxes, lemonade, all labeled with handmade Elder labels. That's pretty damn cool. The venue feeds us well and too much on borscht (a Russian tomato soup), lasagna, chicken. It's all fantastic, too. Our show is fine, despite an amp blowing up. Matt, Mike, and I improvise a jam for what feels like 10 minutes while a stage crew struggles to replace it. After the gig, we hang for a bit with the fans and drink some beer, then head back to the hotel where Boris is checking in for their gigs in Russia the same week. We try to drunkenly convince them to hang out with us in our hotel room, but they politely refuse.

In Saint Petersburg (band photo)

The next morning we have a train to St Petersburg, 4.5 hours away with the fast train, which is super modern and clean like much of what we've seen of these cities. Jack and I laugh at English translations of items in the "on board shop" magazine, order some souvenirs, and are amazed to see our photo and some information about our gig last night in the train magazine (the equivalent of finding your photo in an in-flight magazine on an airplane). When we arrive we're again transported to a hotel in St Petersburg. This city's historical center is absolutely beautiful, full of "old" buildings (the city itself is relatively new, from the 1800s) and Czarist monuments and buildings. Instead of sleeping, we have a walk around and look for some food. We're not exactly successful.

Tickets for the big show!   Photo by Denis Kolpakov

When we arrive at the venue for soundcheck, we're surprised to find it's directly in the historical center, not a five-minute walk from the winter palace. After soundcheck, we take a tour of the area with another guy from the show. The great thing about this area is the souvenirs. You can find amazing coffee mugs and all kinds of kitsch with photos of Trump and Putin on them (in 2016 it was mostly Putin kicking Obama's ass, etc.).

The show tonight is smaller, but also a lot of fun and we play every song we have, again. Last time St Petersburg was crazier, this time Moscow wins in the energetic fan competition, but still people are dancing, moshing, and having a great time. We do the dance of autographs and fan photos after the show and then return to the hotel, more exhausted than anything else. The next morning we manage to catch some breakfast in the lobby where a large Jewish travel group is doing the same. Our trip to the airport and back to the van waiting for us in Vienna is uneventful, but the trip in Russia leaves again a lasting positive impression that we're not so different after all.

Live & Loud:

Moscow

Live & Loud:

Saint Petersburg

"The fans who do come are rabid..."

"We're not so different after all."

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[aemilythings-blog1]

Artwork by Elena S

“It has to be easier than the usual walk out”.

It started with those words. It was the first time I ever used them, and unfortunately, not the last. The idea had sprouted when I looked down the steep rainforest covered slopes above a local canyon.

We had been canyoning in this particular canyon many times, making it seem familiar and welcoming. But we didn’t feel the same about the walk out, or the ‘exit track’ as we called it. A hard 4 hour uphill hike was the way out after abseiling the last 60 meter waterfall. It was our least favourite part of the trip. Obviously.

Read More:

What Is Canyoning? Is Canyoning for You?

The Ultimate Canyoning/Canyoneering Film List!

What if there was a way to shorten the walk out, I wondered? With the idea kernel bursting in my head, it came to me.

Setting up ropes from the top before we started the canyon, and before the last waterfall into the deep, inescapable valley, we could ‘ascend’ out using rope grabbing devices and haul ourselves out, avoiding that 4 hour slog. A short spurt of energy followed by victorious cheering. It should shave hours off the usual time, and be much easier.

That was the plan.

I enlisted my good friend Josh for the adventure. Always up for some action, he was still new to rope skills, like I was, but we figured we could do it.

Packing bags that now weighed far more than on our average trips, after all, we now had double the amount of ropes, we set off one cool winter morning full of excitement about our adventure.

SETTING UP FOR SUCCESS

Before we started the canyon, I had to secure our ropes to ascend out. Smiling from ear to ear thinking of the sheer brilliance of my plan, I wiggle into my wetsuit and buckle up my harness.

This was going to be so easy!

Abseiling down the steep, heavily vegetated slopes, I find the best tree to use as an anchor. It takes one 60 meter rope to get down to the canyon edge, and another for the vertical 40 meter drop into the dark blue waters below.

Peering down, I am amazed to see the canyon from this new angle. Usually we are swimming below through the deep pools while we look up at the high rock walls. I lower the rope down the final vertical section.

I triple check the tree and the rope, making sure it was safe from any nasty sharp edges. I then ascend back up the slope to Josh and we begin the canyon as normal.

IS IT USUALLY THIS COLD?

We carefully walk into the first pool. A few steps in we know we have to, there's no point delaying the inevitable. We jump into the frigid water. Slowly, water seeps past the back zipper on our wetsuits and we gasp at the sudden piercing cold.

Despite it being winter, I was enthusiastic to do the trip. Winters in Queensland weren't that cold anyway, surely a 10 degree difference wasn’t that bad?

We continue on and do the first jump, a nice 4 meter drop next to a huge log wedged in place.

Canyons are amazing places. Like playgrounds, they offer up an abundance of fun that takes you back to being a kid. But while they are spectacular, they hold many dangers to the inexperienced. You need the skills, gear and teamwork to tackle any obstacles you find. Once you commit, there's only one way out and only one way to escape: Finish the canyon.

Soon we reach the major abseils. We had already done a few smaller ones, now the main show awaits. Throwing our ropes into the darkness below, we abseil next to the pounding waterfalls, occasionally brushing close enough to feel the pinpricks of the high speed water droplets.

Once the last abseils were done, we had the final 100 meter swim to where the rope hung from the trees above.

Nearing the dangling rope, I figure out the plan to get up. We only had one set of ascenders. Knowing this from the start, the plan was for one person to go up and slide them down again to the person below.

It'll be easy, right?

I had only bought my ascenders a few weeks prior so had a basic idea of how to use them. But Josh hadn't so a crash course was needed.

I quickly run him through the steps. There was a body ascender, and a hand ascender for the foot loop. Two different devices, two ways of attaching them to the rope, both doing the same thing. Helping you get up!

The water was cold and we were keen to get moving. We were starting to shiver.

I spot a small ledge 5 meters above the water. If we could both get on that, the other person wouldn’t have to wait as long in the icy water. I go first, as I would be better able to help from top should Josh have trouble with the ascenders.

We leave our floating bags attached to the end of the rope and I make my way upwards to the ledge.

Ascending was tiring. Moving the hand ascender up, I would stand up in the foot loop attached to it and take up the slack with my body ascender before repeating the process. After 5 meters I've warmed up significantly.

But Josh hasn’t.

It doesn’t take long for the onset of hypothermia to begin. It is one of the dangers in canyoning. Leading to a loss of mental and physical capacity, and eventually death, it’s important to be aware of it. Generally, as long as you keep moving, you stay warm. But stand still, or worse, float in the cold water without moving for a while, and it can begin very quickly!

I slide the ascenders 5 meters back down to Josh in the water. He struggles to open the carabiners with numb hands. Confusion begins and his speech is slurring. This is not good!

I talk him through the steps again. He needs to get up here quick!

Fighting through the mental fog and numb fingers and body, he finally gets the ascenders onto the rope. Like I did, he warms up again by the time he greets me on the ledge. Hypothermia avoided. I relax a little.

The next part is another hard decision. For the moment, Josh is ok on the ledge, and if I go first I can always help him from above easier than from below. We have a chat and agree this is the best option.

I start upwards again, working furiously to get to the top as fast as I can. Step up, take the slack, and repeat. Only 35 odd meters to go.

I reach the top, sweating, gasping, and exhausted. My biceps burn and my legs quiver. I feel worked. I'm done.

I detach my body ascender after clipping my safety to my anchor around the tree, and yell out to Josh to get ready. Using a jacket, he would catch the ziplining ascenders as they zoom down the rope. After 35 meters, they would be travelling extremely fast and hit with incredible force.

I send the first ascender, the one used for your body and your main attachment point, down on a carabiner hooked on the rope. Josh catches it without issues.

In my tired state I leave the foot ascender clipped to the rope and prepare to send it down with the progress capture teeth disengaged. The teeth sit less than a centimeter away from the rope allowing it to slide down.

But there is a flaw with my method. Tired, and without another thought about it, I send it down.

F*@K!

The word escaped my mouth before it had even happened. As the ascender screamed down the rope, it whipped back and forth. And those teeth that were so close to the rope, were just waiting for a taste.

A loud crack echos through the canyon. Those teeth got their taste and the stop was so violent, the rope bounced. The teeth must have brushed the rope and caught. It was 3 meters above Josh’s head, out of reach, and stuck.

The word made it out again.

There was a better way to send it down, by just clipping it to a carabiner. But I hadn't. Now, we had more trouble. This was all new to me. And to Josh.

At worst, the rope may have been badly damaged. And at best, a small nick. I rest my head against the tree I'm anchored into, close my eyes, and take a moment (of swearing uncontrollably).

When done, I focus again on our situation. At least he has the rope in his hand. Without that, he would have been truly stuck. I yell down. The moment of truth. Did he have his prussik loops?

Prussik loops are used as a emergency ascending method. Slow and physically demanding, its a backup option using loops of cord. They require practice to know how to loop around the rope and ascend up with them.

After some tense searching, he locates them on his harness. Thank god! But in the meantime, the cold had once again started its sinister work on him. Not only did he have to remember how to attach the prussik loop, he had to do it while fighting the cold gripping hold of his mind and body.

With some coaxing and yelling on my part, he finally manages. He now has to ascend on the prusiks 3 meters to the hand ascender and hope it isn’t permanently jammed on the rope, or worse, damaged the rope or itself.

Those 3 meters felt like an eternity as he slowly moves up, bit by bit. My mind played horrible scenarios of being stuck in this canyon and having to be rescued. That is, if we could even get a signal out on my personal locator beacon!

As he finally reaches the ascender, relief washes over me as he reports a

little nick on the rope, nothing too bad, and the ascender is fine. He can now continue with the hand ascender which was much more efficient.

The day was starting to take its toll. My stress levels were off the charts and I was tired. I just wanted the day to be over. But it was now my turn to feel the cold and its icy embrace. I started shivering, then stopped and felt very tired. Just a little nap is all I needed...

Josh joins me at the tree, bringing me back to the present. There was one sure way to beat the cold so we set about our next task. Hauling the bags.

AND YOU THOUGHT THE HARD WORK WAS DONE?

Setting up a basic pulley system, we start to haul the bags. We have since upgraded to specialised canyon packs which drain the water through mesh panels, but on this day, we hauled two 60 litre, water logged fabric backpacks.

And it was killing us.

If I thought I had worked hard on the ascending, I had been dreaming. Steam fumed from our wetsuits as we heaved, again and again. Countless times the bags got stuck on some unseen edge. It felt like we were hauling gym weights and it was a never ending session of pain and swearing. So much swearing.

With a final pull, the bags reach the anchor. We drag them in and with dismay I see water slosh out. We had hauled our already heavy bags up 40 meters with some extra water inside.

Pulling up the rope dangling in the canyon and packing it away, we still have to ascend the steep vegetated slopes to the trail above. Averaging 50° with some vertical rock steps, we had our work cut out for us.

As I had weaved the rope around trees in the beginning while I set it up, there was no clear way to pass the ascenders back down other than to attach yourself to a tree and slide them down again. A process that had to be done on each tree. A common theme was forming.

And now, carrying heavy water-soaked, rope-filled packs, it wasn’t any easier. With each bit of progress we become more and more exhausted. Muscles ached and cramped. Our brains felt like mush. We were 5 hours past the original estimated time I had expected it to take.

By the time we reach the top and touch the hiking track, savouring its familiarity, the sun was setting, the last rays touching the tips of the trees. But the day was not done with us yet. With 4 wet ropes, wetsuits, and our usual canyoning gear, we still had another hour of ‘gentle’ uphill track to get back to our car.

Because I had anticipated an early finish, Josh hadn’t brought a headlamp and mine was almost out of battery. So through the black rainforest we trudge as all the wildlife awakens for the night, a stark contrast of energy levels.

As we approach the car, the only one left in the car park now, our moods improve and we had to laugh out loud.

Compared to our 'shortcut', the walk out was probably the easiest part of the trip!

Lessons Learnt is a series documenting or telling the story of the adventures and epics that could have been avoided, done differently, or at least, provide a lesson on what not to do. Some details or events may be simplified, left out, or added for story telling purposes, and the sole purpose is to provide entertainment, not instruction.

[shopfortnite3162-blog]

What's Fortnite Vbucks as well as How might It Perform?

What Is Fortnite With The Digital Currency V

Despite Fortnite being one of the most popular games regarding that era, Epic Games' impressive battle royale say not appeared without its drawbacks. The journey it is getting appears to be leading to Loot Lake, and with under three weeks go pending the ending of the sport current time, it is demanded to touch the location before the issue of Fortnite Season 6. Every war may eat era with eat period will cost something especially when that working with a currency amount from Fortnite V Bucks Hack. You can see time period that will help you to focus on completing actions instantly.

It's already no technique that scammers have taken place wanting to make a fast buck by delivering gamers free V-Bucks, the digital currency that Fortnite players use to get new points with skins from the current battle royale activity. May became the most profitable month for which we have stats open, with Fortnite: Battle Royale bringing in $318 million (concrete post-May figures are challenging to find). That gets it the best-performing diversion of their sort before this metric.

If you've been looking at a certain skin or are trying to save up to get some new items you'll know all about Fortnite V-Bucks. They're the in-game currency to let you to pick up new products like skins and gliders for your Fortnite makeup with load-out. Move the low on Fortnite: Battle Royale, that is right now in time 7. In most multiplayer shooter games, your plan is to eliminate. This is not the indictment if you are going to play Fortnite. Your wish is to continue, not murder. For order, even if you kill 50 opponents, people might lose.

These cheats for Fortnite is 100% designing with authorized to use from the competition. You can simply find Unlimited V Dollars for PS4 by using these structures. Don't you worry, you may and get V Responsibilities For Xbox One, COMPUTER, iOS and Machine using the same approach. Traps are specifically useful in Fortnite, especially to protect the rear. Although it is not recommended to remain silent, if you opt for a passive game, try to recover the different types of corner (at the earth, on the walls) so as to shell you.

Epic Games: Fortnite Battle Royale says no direct the experience to kids under the age of 13 in the BRITISH. Father by April 13, players will be able to meet the Fortnite World Cup Open Qualifiers presented as a game approach in the setting selection screen. Each qualifier can give a total prize puddle of $1 million, which means Epic will distribute $10 million simply in Direct Qualifiers to the World Cup.

Part of Fortnite's increase to power has no doubt become their cross-platform availability, with everyday mobile gamers on the move able to participate with hardcore bedroom gamers on the same footing ( Sony was uncertain , but cross-play operation has lately been allowed for PS4 players ). Many from the FORTNITE V BUCKS GENERATOR websites out there are try to assure anyone that somehow the developers managed to cut into the FORTNITE Database, and thus they may acquire the unlimited free v-bucks into Campaign Royale game.

With Time 7 in full swing, version 7.01 can not look to exciting by contrast. That said, the new variety of Fortnite enters the Infinity Blade system from Epic Games' Infinity Blade series, the new Close Encounters limited-time mode, and more. Figure 2a: Data illustrates the estimated revenue by point manner with value go by Fortnite players May 2017 — June 2018, based on the Edison Trends dataset.

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If you're looking for other features to help shake up the Fortnite gameplay, be sure to look at these 40 awesome Fortnite Creative Island codes you can play today , and of course if you're a Fortnite Battle Royale player, be sure to check out our Fortnite Season 7: Week 8 Challenges call for facts and suggestions. The Fortnite season 6 Battle Pass costs 950 V Oppose. A bundle of 1,000 V Bucks can be got for £7.99.

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Unfortunately, some Fortnite players, especially kids also teenagers, still fall for the many scams online next next to YouTube promising them V-Bucks. You can use the Fortnite Generator to get Free Fornite V Bucks, the procedure to do that is rather easy, once you got the application at your own pc, just launch Fortnite also lay the amount of Fortnite V Dollars to you need to get in your account, once you are made you just have to click on the Generate Buttons.

Fortnite: Save The planet is a house survival game using all the same gear and rifles as you'll notice in Fortnite Battle Royale, and controls the person with body defenses before looking down the attack of AI controlled zombies. Survive the night with people make rewards such when different systems, gear, traps with body materials to do it all once again. With take two different modes along with exist inside earlier access, it is wonder how lucky Fortnite runs both at home PVE and PVP modes. As such, you don't require a super powerful PC to play the game.

Epic Activity are trying to produce a miniature model of Fortnite Battle Royale for participants to enjoy with their supporters with creative mode, using a smaller starting circle. With rapid, I discovered a backdoor break into the repositories of several large gaming group. The Fortnite Battle Royale database allows me to charge as many sources when I want into any Fortnite Battle Royale account.

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Watch the latest episode of our Fortnite talk show Squad Up to get Patrick Warburton enjoy about controversy royale. One of the best things about building a COMPUTER for Fortnite is to, for a great in-game performance, you only really need 2 or more CPU cores. Kids could sometimes get V-Bucks without their parents' information, since the parents' status or debit cards are connected to the gaming account which employ to engage fortnite free v bucks in. Although the issue isn't exclusive to Fortnite, the situation with Fortnite has drawn particular interest because the game is so popular right now.

And so these were some of the best system that is usually used to find free v bucks in fortnite game without using any real money. Fortnite Battle Royale is an online multiplayer survival shooter developed by Epic Games , in which 100 players fight to be the last one rest with entertainment lasting less than forty seconds. It is a free game utilizing some mechanics on the original Fortnite, a success sandbox game, and many aspects on the war royale” type of sports.

The credit defense is our own top priority! Defend the story with allowing 2FA. As a compensate for keeping the bill, you'll uncover the Boogiedown Emote in Fortnite Battle Royale. It's unclear at this time exactly how the Hidden Treasure item will work, however. It'd make sense if the item somehow showed a rare, powerful tool hidden somewhere around the map—but most Fortnite fans don't know what to expect quite yet.

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No one can actually pinpoint any hints which happen significant indicators of happy in Time 7. While many consider that this Fortnite map could be switched into a ‘Winter' theme in time for the Holiday's, this remains unclear that path Epic Games will take. In fact, you can hone your expertise from the sport and become one of the better Fortnite players without having to spend a single money in in-game purchases. However, purchasing V Bucks does have the benefits.

Flamemaster”, a tenth grader, says they are, Annoying, obnoxious, dangerous, and infuriating.” What has gone wrong? Of course, every activity gets the drawbacks, also I stay not wanting to prove how Fortnite is a bad game, just demonstrate the way many people who participate in this take ruined what could have been a respectable game. You will accept the e-mail alert if the rate of Fortnite - 10,000 (+3,500 Bonus) V-Bucks can stop.

Motion blur: Trying that upon puts a mist look while moving. This a graphic putting to certain players have, but for a competitive diversion of Fortnite, it will make things harder to accompany after shift in speed. Changing this down is suggested. Way the stats for Fortnite battle royale, complete with global leaderboards for single, couple and squad gamemodes. Unlike the vast majority of multiplayer shooters, the wish of Fortnite Battle Royale is to survive, not to have kills. This is perhaps the most important Fortnite suggestions to think of: you can get 98 kills and still lose.

You can turn off hardware rushing with Google Chrome therefore that history applications done by Chrome do not eat too many resources if you become performing Fortnite. Free Fortnite V Bucks Generator Ideal with Straightforward Way for 2019. Though, if you're not, then pay attention to this division also deliver very precisely. Since those fake V Bucks Hack can cause your ‘Fortnite account banned or blocked‘ if you dropped to the trap.

Having moving storm groups with creative would and lived lucky acquired from the Fortnite competitive the public as players will be able to consistently practice hectic end-game scenarios commonly met on LAN events. Fortnite could also follow PUBG's example also insert news maps to spice up the gameplay (but made with Fortnite's signature, goofy way). More vehicles might be another interesting direction to go popular, with competitors PUBG , H1Z1 now Request of Function: Blackout successfully featuring vehicular gameplay.

[clay33sigmon-blog]

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Soblogz Presenting fortnite redeem code generator that could get you complete activity by no rate. The Row Royale part of Fortnite go on into times, with Season 8 scheduled to start soon. These usually continue for almost 10 weeks, with contain tons of themed events based on the summer, winter, autumn, and flexibility, as well as holidays like Halloween and Easter. Fortnite has come to mobile! Squad in place with compete to be the last one have in Conflict Royale, or use the imagination to build the goal Fortnite in Creative. https://www.scribd.com/ Unfortunately, professional report on the Fortnite Battle Royale game is not yet complete. That sport lives around the record and can be reviewed from the next feature. Meanwhile, you can find more from the standard description below. Fortnite for Nintendo Switch delivers the same fun, compelling battle royale experience currently existing around the new platforms. 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And with Epic Games diligently adding another elements to keep things interesting, it isn't surprising that the builder-shooter is dominating for the time. EA owns iconic gaming franchises like as FIFA,” Need for Rush” with Battlefield,” but the rapid growth last year of free-to-play online sports like Fortnite” and PUBG” are influence the friendship and its industry experts Activision-Blizzard and Take-Two to sit down upward with take notice. While in-game goods are mostly-limited to non-essential cosmetic things, which allows stopped people spending (though 20% are not informed they were not finding a improvement). Really, a chart executed by LendEDU get to close to 70% of Fortnite players invested in V-Bucks, committing a not-insignificant standard of $85. Fortnite does appear violence as participants are in combat with each other, the dynamism on the entertainment is very cartoonish, along with the violence isn't soft or gory. Though, it is worth noting the want of Fortnite is to defeat other players with arguing against them. No more worry and no other stop, now you can fill your game accounts with Open V Bucks with the help of the V Bucks Generator. Welcome for the humanity of Fortnite where you need to be different to salvage the globe and maintain head up with your guy friends. https://www.file-upload.com/770cylh3chj8 By adding V-bucks toward your own credit, we should verify that you are human and may not harm our organization. Click "verify Human" with great a small study with appropriate data to help verify. DO NOT COPY PASTE WHILE FILLING OUT WAY. The Free V-Bucks will be sent to your Fortnite account when you end the bargain. As Fortnite and Fortnite Battle Royale are still with education, Epic Sport has potential but not committed to a series of development, from tiny technical twist to massive gameplay additions.

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[cryptswahili]

Why bitcoin’s future is vertical and crypto should give up going horizontal

Instead of concentrating on building the vertical second layer on top of the bitcoin network, the industry has been obsessed with developing competing base layers on a horizontal plane in the shape of new blockchains, often at great expense and with relatively little to show for it.

That, at any rate, is the contention of Ryan Radloff, the chief executive and co-founder of CoinShares.

2/ Last 3 years our industry has been focused on growing horizontally (not vertically) by creating new “base layer” networks to build on & compete with #bitcoin, mainly because of bitcoin’s flaws:

-Not fast enough -Not programable enough -etc…

— Ryan Radloff

(@RyanRadloff) February 10, 2019

And there is one technology in particular that is witnessing accelerated adoption, achieved not by inventing a “better” blockchain but simply by building on top of what already exists: it’s the Lightning Network.

Nodes matter and bitcoin is still on top by a mile

As of 10 February, the node counts of leading blockchains had bitcoin in first place with 10,336, Ethereum in second place on 7,574 and coming up fast, Lightning is in third place with a tally of 6,088.

Some way behind, in fourth, fifth and sixth place are Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and Ripple on 1,869, 1,589 and 1,047, respectively.

At the time of writing the Lightning node count has risen to 6,293, seeing a 14.6% increase in the past 30 days, according to Lightning data site 1ML. Network capacity has jumped 30% in that same period to $2,506,102 (691.01 BTC) and the number of channels stands at 26,990.

Going vertical with Bitcoin as new dapps launch but inactivity grows

OK, we can have an argument about bitcoin’s listening (full nodes) and non-listening nodes (SPV) that don’t have their ports open and similar issues to take account of on the other networks, but you get the idea. Bitcoin is by far the most decentralised network, although there is the consideration of the “political” control of those nodes, given the pockets of mining control concentration that ASICs brought to the world. Perhaps we should say bitcoin is the densest (and most secure) network.

Radloff argues that for the past three years the industry has been fixated on horizontal development by creating new “base layers” with a “’crypto Keynesian’ type spending model – raising a ton of capital & spending it on projects to promote network growth, hoping the spending would stimulate coin velocity & user growth… Now data is showing that isn’t working.”

Although not mentioned by Radloff, it might be noted here that a recent research on Ethereum by LongHash found that 10% of the dapps “running” on its blockchain were inactive.

Other data at State of the Dapps report in January revealed that 17% of all dapps were inactive, despite the new apps chart still trending higher.

Radloff compares EOS and Tron to the bitcoin network in somewhat disparaging terms, bemoaning the fact that they “still can’t achieve the same network size or node count success as bitcoin or even more embarrassing, bitcoins [sic] second layer – lightning network”.

He maintains that the approach of EOS and Tron is akin to governments implementing Keynesian-inspired public spending to manage aggregate demand in an economy with the aim of stimulating economic growth.

The development of the Lightning Network, by contrast, according to Radloff, has proceeded along the lines of “minimalist ‘boot strap’ funding”. And in so doing it is proving through example  that there’s a different way ahead that isn’t just cheaper but arguably  more successful.

However, critics of Lightning say its system of pre-funded channels that have to be opened between transacting parties will ultimately make it difficult to grow the network and ultimately an  unsuitable solution for payments at scale.

Does Cash and pizza prove the point?

Which brings us to a couple of news items on the Lightning front that perhaps go some way towards illustrating Radloff’s point.

First, Jack Dorsey, the chief executive of both Twitter and Square, who said “it’s not an ‘if’, it’s a ‘when’” for Lightning Network integration in the Cash app, as reported earier this week by EWN.

Dorsey is what might be considered a bitcoin maximalist in altcoin circles, given that he has rebuffed all pleas to support top altcoins in Cash.

In December last year Cash was the most downloaded app in the finance section of the Google Play app store. And on 8 December it was the No.1 most downloaded app in the Apple app store. No wonder people are jumping up and down about Dorsey bringing Lightning to the app.

Now consider the launch of Lightning Pizza by the folks behind the crypto payment app Fold.

As the name suggests, the new service enables consumers to buy pizza from Domino’s Pizza with bitcoin. A Cheese Pizza, a Pepperoni Pizza and a Classic Garden Salad purchased from  from the New York store on 181 Church Street, costs 523101 satoshis ($18.58). LN.Pizza users get a 5% reduction.

Altcoin winter

The reader should be aware that Radloff’s comments came a few days before news emerged that CoinShares’ XBT Provider subsidiary was shelving plans to launch a crypto basket tracker fund.

The group already has two successful products in the crypto space – the Bitcoin and Ethereum exchanged traded note (ETN) trackers.

An ETN is constructed as a debt security and provides the owner with exposure to the underlying asset. Although similar in appearance, ETNs are not exchanged traded funds, despite trading on a stock market. The confusion on that score led to the XBT Provider products being suspended in the US by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Bitcoin Tracker One and Ethereum Tracker One are both listed on the Swedish stock exchange.

In a Bloomberg report on 13 February Laurent Kssis, the chief executive of XBT Provider, explained the reasoning behind the cancelling of the crypto basket fund as down to the company having an insufficient understanding of the situation with hard forks affecting blockchains.

“It’s important to ask how the community is responding to the split and who’s going to support one asset versus the other. If we get it wrong, these assets will drop and if they’re part of the basket we can’t go back because it’s in the final term-sheet,” said Kssis.

Given the mess surrounding the Bitcoin Cash hard fork that saw the creation of Bitcoin SV, which is still the subject of much controversy as seen in Jimmy Song’s recent accusation that it is a “scam”, the doubts about a fund tracking a basket of cryptoassets at this point could be sound, although that may not be the whole story.

With a number of projects in danger of running out of funds as the crypto winter drags on, XBT Provider may be cooling on altcoins, with the exception of Ethereum, hence Radloff’s love of all things bitcoin.

Lightning ‘Pass The Torch’ game lights the way

On a seemingly more frivolous note is the progress of the Lightning Pass The Torch game on Twitter, where crypto luminaries ‘pass the torch’ by receiving a Lightning transaction and then adding 10,000 satoshi and passing on the torch, relay like, to someone else in the crypto community.

It was recently in the hands of Changpeng Zhao, the chief executive of Binance, who in turn has past it to Justin Sun of Tron who has now entrusted the imaginary flame to the safe-keeping of Erik Voorhees of ShapeShift. Attempts to get Elon Musk onboard have so far failed. Dorsey and Elizabeth Stark have previously been torch bearers.

If nothing else, the torch game is raising the profile of the Lightning Network on crypto twitter if not the rest of the internet.

Lightning has seen a number development teams building rival implementations, with Elizabeth Stark’s Lightning Labs arguably leading the way. Dorsey is an investor in the company.

Back with Radloff, how does he see Lightning and other second-layer efforts playing out over the next few years? Vertical expansion of course.

7/ so I predict the theme of the next 3 years won’t be horizontal expansion, but vertical expansion on top of #bitcoin

— Ryan Radloff

(@RyanRadloff) February 10, 2019

To provide a bit of context on how Radloff’s thoughts have been evolving, back in December 2017 he saw a marketplace of competing coins as a positive “Darwinian” struggle.

Maybe that struggle has played out and the “Bitcoin 2.0” he speaks of in the 2017 CNBC interview turns out to be Lightning and other second-layer tech yet to come, not Ethereum, EOS, Cardano etc…

Cryptocurrency story much bigger than bitcoin now: CoinShares from CNBC.

  The post Why bitcoin’s future is vertical and crypto should give up going horizontal appeared first on Ethereum World News.

[Telegram Channel | Original Article ]

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Graphics by Sakshi Jain

Once more, with feeling: People are a lot more apt to change their mind in primaries than in general elections. That’s because, when all the candidates in the race are members of the same party, voters often like several of them, and the 2020 presidential primary is no exception. High favorability ratings have given some presidential candidates well-founded hope that voters may still jump on board with them in the next few weeks. Meanwhile, others still haven’t made an impression on a majority of voters — and unlike at the beginning of the election cycle, they are now virtually out of time to do so.

Now that we are (finally) on the verge of voters actually going to the polls, let’s check in one last time on the number of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters with a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the remaining presidential candidates (based on an average of national polls7 conducted from the night of Dec. 19 through Jan. 15 — that is, since the December debate).

Sanders, Warren and Biden are the best-liked candidates

The share of Democratic or Democratic-leaning respondents with a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the 2020 Democratic candidates, according to an average of national polls conducted Dec. 19 through Jan. 15

Candidate Share with an Opinion Favorable Unfavorable Net Bernie Sanders 94% 73% 21% +51 Elizabeth Warren 87 68 19 +49 Joe Biden 94 71 24 +47 Andrew Yang 68 50 18 +32 Pete Buttigieg 73 53 20 +32 Amy Klobuchar 62 42 20 +22 Tom Steyer 58 37 20 +17 Michael Bloomberg 76 43 33 +10 Michael Bennet 40 24 16 +8 Deval Patrick 36 20 15 +5 John Delaney 38 19 19 0 Tulsi Gabbard 60 20 40 -21

Source: Polls

Three candidates — Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden — are roughly tied for the distinction of being the best-liked Democrat in the field. About 70 percent of Democrats view each of them favorably, and about 20 percent view each of them unfavorably, giving them each a net favorability rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) of around +50 points. What’s more, these three have been the most popular candidates in the field all cycle — Biden had the highest net favorability rating at the beginning of last year, while Warren pulled into the top spot in August.

On the other hand, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is in the worst shape by this metric — more than twice as many Democrats view her unfavorably as view her favorably, making her the only candidate with a negative net favorability rating among members of her own party. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg also has a relatively poor net favorability score. More than three-quarters of Democrats are familiar enough with Bloomberg to form an opinion of him (as measured by his favorable rating plus his unfavorable rating), but those opinions are pretty divided (his net favorability is just +10 points). That means his recent television ad blitz may have helped more Americans form an opinion of him, but it hasn’t really improved how positively they see him compared to one year ago.

Sen. Michael Bennet, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and former Rep. John Delaney have a different problem: Despite all their campaigning (Patrick may only have been on the trail for a couple months, but Delaney has been at it for two and a half years!), less than 40 percent of Democrats know enough about these candidates to form an opinion. Generally speaking, voters have to know who you are in order to vote for you, so this is a bad place to be entering primary season.

Other candidates, though, have managed to boost their brand beyond anyone’s wildest dreams. Take former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and entrepreneur Andrew Yang. They each had a stretch in 2019 where large majorities of Democrats did not have an opinion about them.8 Now, however, more than two-thirds of Democrats do, and those opinions are overwhelmingly positive. Their net favorabilities shot up more than 20 points each over the course of the year and now both sit at +32. Buttigieg is faring better in horse-race polls, averaging 7 percent support in national polls to Yang’s 4 percent — but it’s worth noting that almost all of the movement in Buttigieg’s net favorability rating came in between winter and spring 2019. Despite becoming better known over the past several months, Buttigieg’s net favorability today is about where it was when in both May and August.

Gabbard and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, on the other hand, have seen a lot of movement in how Democrats feel about them — though not necessarily positive movement. Both increased the share of Democrats with an opinion of them by a sizable 29 points, but their net favorability did not keep pace. Klobuchar’s net favorability is up only 8 points over that time frame, and it was a rocky rise; it went up a bit in May, then fell in August, and now has returned to where it was in May. Meanwhile, Gabbard’s net favorability was pretty steady until the end of the year, when it plunged from +7 in August to -21 today. That’s quite a drop in support, but considering the biggest ways she made headlines in that period — Hillary Clinton asserted that Republicans were “grooming” Gabbard to run as a third-party spoiler candidate, and the congresswoman voted “present” when the House moved to impeach President Trump — such a dramatic hit isn’t all that surprising.

Unsurprisingly, Biden, Sanders and Warren have been both very familiar to and very popular among Democratic voters all cycle long. For example, Warren went from 71 percent of Democrats having an opinion of her with a +44 net favorability rating at this time last year to 83 percent having an opinion of her with a +54 net favorability rating in August. However, she has flatlined a bit in recent months (her net favorability is down 5 points since August), corresponding with her plateau and drop-off in horse-race polls.

Biden’s changes over the past year are arguably the most interesting of anyone in this trio. Basically every Democrat knows enough about the former vice president to have an opinion of him, so that number has had little room to grow (it has increased by just 5 points). But his net favorability rating has dropped by a whopping 22 points. The fact that it’s still so positive now is a testament to how absurdly high (+69) it was a year ago, before he announced he was running for president. So it seems as if the events of the campaign have hurt his image.

Finally, Sanders’s popularity has been extremely consistent — too consistent, in fact, to bother plotting on an animated chart! All cycle long, almost all voters have had an opinion of him, and his net favorability has hovered between +50 and +52, reflecting how baked-in his support seems to be.

The fact that Biden, Sanders and Warren are each viewed favorably by about 70 percent of Democrats means that many people like more than one of these leading candidates. For example, according to data from the latest FiveThirtyEight Ipsos poll, conducted using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, about 40 percent of likely Democratic primary voters had favorable views of all three top contenders at the time of last week’s debate. So if one of them starts racking up wins next month and begins to look notably more viable than the others, that candidate will be well positioned to accumulate support quickly. And given that these three represent Democrats’ three most likely nominees, most of the party looks like it will have no problem uniting behind one of them in the general.

Derek Shan contributed research.

[preciousmetals0]

Avoid Wall Street FOMO With These 2 Rules

Avoid Wall Street FOMO With These 2 Rules:

Do You Know Where Your Towel Is?

Thanksgiving is tomorrow. Is your stomach prepared?

I know you might be feeling a little bit queasy heading into the holiday break. The market is setting all-time highs. Optimism is growing on U.S.-China trade talks. However, we’re coming up on the one-year anniversary of the December 2018 sell-off.

Wall Street is torn between fear of missing out (FOMO) and heading for the bomb shelter.

That said, I have a few prefeasting antacids for you today … a little something to ease your mind heading into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

First, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) — i.e., the U.S. economy — grew at a faster-than-expected 2.1% in the third quarter. Most economists had estimated GDP growth of just 1.9%.

Second, U.S. durable goods orders rebounded in October, rising 0.6% after dropping 1.4% in September. Durable goods orders measure demand for big-ticket manufactured goods, such as home appliances, cars, medical equipment and even sports gear. The only caveat here is that most of October’s demand came from military spending, not the private sector.

Third, U.S. jobless claims fell to 213,000 ahead of the holiday weekend. The drop put claims back near historic lows after hitting a five-month high last week.

So, despite all the doom and gloom in the financial media, the U.S. economy is still chugging along. It does, however, appear a bit short of breath … but that’s nothing a solid U.S.-China trade deal won’t fix.

The Takeaway:

We’re back to that age-old question once posed by the iconic English rock band, The Clash: “Should I stay, or should I go now?”

If you go, there could be trouble … at least where your portfolio returns are concerned. FOMO is a serious affliction affecting many investors right now. They’re worried about a correction, a failed U.S.-China trade deal, a slowing U.S. economy … the list goes on.

However, these same investors see the market continue higher every week. They see economic reports (such as today’s) that fail to confirm their bearish-leaning suspicions.

“What if … what if the market suddenly surges higher and I miss out on the upside?” they might be thinking.

FOMO has gotten so bad, investment bank Canaccord Genuity addressed the issue in a note to clients yesterday. “While anything can happen, our indicators simply favor not chasing the market higher on fear of missing out,” the research firm said in a note.

That’s some first-rate analysis there. “Anything can happen.” Of course it can.

On the other hand, if you stay, it could be double. As I’ve noted before, the market is due for a correction at some point. It has to happen. All-time highs aren’t sustainable, and once the selling begins in earnest — not the profit-taking declines we’ve seen in the past couple of months — things could get ugly.

At times like these, I like to turn to The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. There are two simple rules. First, don’t panic. Second, always know where your towel is.

The first rule is pretty self-explanatory, but quite hard to do in reality. It means don’t sell everything just because the market shows signs of a correction. It also means that you shouldn’t rush into the market for fear of missing out.

The second rule is a bit vaguer. A towel is a very useful thing. It can be clothing, a blanket, a rope, et cetera. Your “towel” in this case is your safety net. This is the portion of your portfolio that is invested in long-term growth and safe, income-driven investments. A good investment “towel” will see you through the worst the market has to offer.

If you follow these two rules, you can still invest in the market’s continued upside with confidence.

It just so happens that Banyan Hill has its own incarnation of these two key rules: The Bauman Letter.

Banyan Hill expert Ted Bauman has spent his entire life showing people how to secure and keep their wealth … and their freedom and independence.

I don’t know if you know this, but The Bauman Letter has three separate portfolios — each suited to a different investing style:

The Endless Income Portfolio for generating income.

The Base Hits Portfolio for investing in long-term gains from solid, financially stable companies.

The Home Run Portfolio for impressive shorter-term gains on opportunistic trades.

It’s got something for everyone. It is your towel.

Learn how to diversify your investing today — click here to find out how to sign up now for The Bauman Letter.

The Good: Step 1 — Open the Box

If you thought the cloud market was taking a breather, Box Inc. (NYSE: BOX) just put that myth to rest.

The cloud services firm just reported blowout third-quarter results and lifted its full-year forecast. For the quarter, Box said it lost a penny per share, up sharply from a loss of $0.06 per share last year.

Revenue rose 14% to $177.2 million year over year, with 10% growth in billings — i.e., subscriber revenue.

Box also lifted its full-year outlook to earnings of $0.04 to $0.05 per share on revenue of $181 million to $182 million.

While both Microsoft Corp.’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) Azure and Amazon.com Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AMZN) Web Services dominate the cloud headlines, it’s clear that there’s still room for considerable growth in the market. Investors shouldn’t underestimate Box’s potential.

BOX shares are up more than 11% so far today.

The Bad: Oh Deere

If you’ve followed the U.S.-China trade war talks (and if you’re reading this, I know you have), then you know that agriculture is a touchy subject this year.

And it isn’t playing out well for Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE).

Overall, the farm equipment company’s fourth-quarter sales and earnings were better than expected.

Earnings beat by a penny per share and revenue topped by about 16.5%. However, Deere warned of uncertainties in the agricultural sector.

“Lingering trade tensions coupled with a year of difficult growing and harvesting conditions have caused many farmers to become cautious about making major investments in new equipment,” CEO John May told investors.

Deere is paying the price for that uncertainty today, with DE shares down more than 3%.

The Ugly: Bring It On

I’m all for a little bravado here and there, but Tesla Inc. (Nasdaq: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk tends to take things a bit too far sometimes.

Not only is Musk tweeting out Cybertruck preorders like a leaky faucet (the total is up to 250,000 now, according to Musk), but he’s also picked a fight with Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F).

On Sunday, Musk shared a video of a Cybertruck (I still can’t stand that name) pulling a Ford F-150 uphill.

There are multiple problems with this scenario, all of which astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson was quick to point out: The Ford was rear-wheel drive and had no weight in the back end.

Basically, the contest was heavily weighted in favor of the all-wheel-drive Cybertruck.

Following an exchange with Tyson on Twitter, Musk promised to redo the test under more fair conditions — but not before Ford’s Sunny Madra (head of the company’s mobility ventures lab) offered to do the test for him.

It’s the little things like this that add unneeded drama for Tesla investors. The Tesla fanboys are probably eating this up. But for me, I just wanna see sales and revenue results.

I read this morning that Denver just got smacked with seven inches of snow. We get cold weather in Kentucky, but nothing like that. Personally, I greatly dislike cold weather. Someday, I plan on moving to an area where my face doesn’t hurt in the winter … definitely not Denver.

Great Stuff: ’Tis the Season for Sharing!

’Tis the season for sharing and giving thanks!

What snarkier way to tell someone “I care about you and your financial well-being” than to share today’s copy of Great Stuff with them?

You aren’t hoarding all this great financial information for yourself, are you?

I mean, I wouldn’t blame you. If I had a financial e-zine with a trading chart that could help me make billions, I’d keep it quiet, too.

No. No. No! We’re not grinches here. We share with our fellow investors. After all, we’d all like a bigger slice of pie.

Sharing is caring, and Great Stuff cares.

So, if you have a friend who still gets their daily financial news in that dry, Waspy old format from the major financial publications, forward them today’s copy of Great Stuff.

Or, send them here to sign up now!

Liven up their day. Help them make billions too!

They’ll thank you for it.

Finally, don’t forget to like and follow Great Stuff on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram!

Until next time, good trading!

Regards,

Joseph Hargett

Great Stuff Managing Editor, Banyan Hill Publishing