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allthecanadianpolitics · 5 years

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Where the NDP could win:

…and hence where you should absolutely vote NDP and not fear ‘vote splitting’ or ‘handing the election to the Conservatives.’ Ridings where the NDP are incumbent but behind have to be considered at least plausible.

(working from this great breakdown from @Historian_Matt on twitter, using projections (not polls) from 338 and riding history from wikipedia)

Newfoundland & Labrador - swept by LPC, time to take it back. St. John’s East: won by Jack Harris in ‘08 &’11, Harris is running again. Two way race between NDP & LPC on 338. St. John’s South—Mount Pearl: won by Ryan Cleary in ‘11, 338 doesn’t like the odds. Nova Scotia - Some lost territory to regain, CPC not a huge factor. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour: won by Robert Chisholm in ‘11, Emma Norton is an ‘Our Time’ endorsed environmental activist. Halifax: won by the excellent Megan Leslie in’08 and ‘11, previously won by former leader Alexa McDonough, this is a two-way race and this should be an NDP riding. Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook: won by (the now-disgraced) Peter Stoffer in six consecutive elections, currently a three-way race. New Brunswick - Acadians rise up. Acadie—Bathurst: won by Yvon Godin six times between ‘97 and ‘15, two-way race against incumbent LPC Serge Cormier. Quebec - NDP not looking good, but the CPC is even lower most places. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou: Enormous Northern riding held by the retiring Romeo Saganash. 338 has this split between the Bloc and LPC, but with the NDP not far behind. The Tories are a non-factor.

Abitibi—Témiscamingue: Currently held by retiring Christine Moore, another tight one between LPC/BQ/NDP. Beloeil—Chambly: Currently held by Matthew Dubé, the last-standing member of the McGill 5. 338 has him well behind the LPC and BQ. Berthier—Maskinongé: Currently held by Ruth Ellen Brosseau (the notorious REB) and one of the few Quebec ridings that the NDP can be said to be leading in. It would be ludicrous to vote Liberal here, it’s REB or the Bloc. Drummond: Currently held by Francois Choquette, 338′s breakdown somehow puts him 4th. Hochelaga: Currently held by retiring Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet, now allegedly a LPC/Bloc battleground. Fuck ‘em both, vote NDP. Jonquière: Currently held by Karine Trudel, who, like Choquette in Drummond, is improbably in 4th. Laurier—Sainte-Marie: The site of the retiring Hélène Laverdière defeating Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe, and a Quebec riding where the NDP are second to the LPC. Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques: Leadership candidate Guy Caron’s riding, which he won in ‘11 and ‘15. 338 has him behind the Bloc and LPC. Sucks to that. Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie: NDP Deputy Leader Alexandre Boulerice isn’t going anywhere. Currently ahead. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot: Currently held by Brigitte Sansoucy. Salaberry—Suroît: Held by the retiring Anne Minh-Thu Quach. Sherbrooke: Pierre-Luc Dusseault is now 28 years old after two full terms in office, unfortunately Sherbrooke is yet another Quebec riding now being contested between the Bloc and LPC. Trois-Rivières: Another of the 2011 pickups that weathered 2015, incumbent Robert Aubin being given a disrespectful 8.9% on 338. Ontario - Big yikes of a province, but traditional ridings could hold. Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing: Carol Hughes has represented this rural riding since 2008, currently polling well. Brampton East: Raj Grewal left the LPC amid a particularly spicy investigation into his gambling debts. Canada’s only majority South Asian riding, its provincial analogue is held by Jagmeet’s brother. 338 lists it as safe LPC even so. Beaches—East York: NDP has been a strong performer in this riding and held it in the past, it’s a two-way race between them and LPC. Davenport: Won by Andrew Cash in 2011, he’s back and trailing slightly. Essex: Tracey Ramsey won this riding in 2015, this is a rare NDP/CPC race and Tracey’s leading but she needs your vote. Hamilton Centre: The retiring David Christopherson is the only MP this riding has known (created in 2004,) Our Time is endorsing his replacement, Matthew Green. He’s leading, according to 338. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek: Previously held by Wayne Marston from ‘06 to ‘15, and a race between the LPC and NDP. Hamilton Mountain: Historically always a LPC/NDP battleground, currently an orange seat for Scott Duvall. London—Fanshawe: I don’t generally approve of dynastic politics, but the retiring Irene Mathyssen’s daughter Lindsay is vying to replace her in London and is currently ahead of the LPC. Niagara Centre: Malcolm Allen won this riding in ‘08 and ‘11 and is trying to avenge his 2015 defeat in what now looks like a three-way race. Nickel Belt: Traded between LPC and NDP for decades, singer-songwriter Stef Paquette is in yet another close race. Oshawa: Not sure I agree with the detective work on this one. Yes, Ed Broadbent used to rep Oshawa. Literally thirty years ago. Candidate seems like a good one though. Ottawa Centre: Also repped by Ed and the late, great Paul Dewar. Currently held by the duplicitous Catherine McKenna, the NDP are polling 2nd in this used-to-be stronghold. Parkdale—High Park: Once the riding of powerhouse Peggy Nash, another two-way race. Check out Paul Taylor’s specs. Sault Ste. Marie: Strong NDP results historically, held by Tony Martin among others. NDP candidate Sara McCleary really laid it all out when she was nominated. Scarborough North: Previously held by Rathika Sitsabaiesan in 2011, NDP currently polling 3rd. Scarborough Southwest: Strong LPC district, though Dan Harris won this riding in 2011. Whoever you vote for here, maybe don’t vote for Bill fucking Blair. Spadina—Fort York: downtown Toronto, previously the riding of Olivia Chow. Climate activist Diana Yoon in tough against incumbent Adam Vaughn. CPC a non-factor. Sudbury: LPC/NDP battleground, with the Liberals on top pretty solidly in the polls. Thunder Bay—Rainy River: Close race between incumbent LPC and the NDP. The late John Rafferty represented the riding between 2008-2015. Thunder Bay—Superior North: Contest is a three-way between aisle-crossing GPC Bruce Hyer, incumbent LPC Patty Hadju and the NDP’s Anna Betty Achneepinsekum, former Deputy Grand Chief of the Nishnawbe Aski Nation. Timmins–James Bay: Say what you will about Charlie Angus, the wannabe-Pat Martin is not in any particular danger of losing this race. Toronto—Danforth: As matter of principle the NDP should not have lost Jack’s riding in 2015, and as this is essentially a two-way race between them and the LPC, documentarian Min Sook Lee should absolutely have your vote. Windsor—Tecumseh: Big NDP riding, incumbent Cheryl Hardcastle should be able to hold a riding the party has held all millennium. Windsor West: Similarly, Brian Masse has represented Windsor West since 2002. It’s his to lose. Toronto Centre: I mean, imagine unseating Bill Morneau. Liberals have a big lead here, the CPC are a non-factor and Brian Chang is an excellent candidate. University—Rosedale: Still unhappy that Jennifer Hollett lost out to Capitalism with a Human Face Chrystia Freeland, and further unhappy that Freeland seems a shoe-in for re-election. NDP are second, for what it’s worth. York South—Weston: Won by the NDP’s Mike Sullivan in ‘11, something of an LPC stronghold otherwise. Again, NDP are second in a very Liberal riding. Manitoba - well, it’s not all bad news. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski: Yeah, Niki Ashton’s sticking around. It was close in 2015, but this is her 4th rodeo. Elmwood—Transcona: aka, the Blaikie dynasty riding. Again, I don’t care for that sort of thing but I do hope Daniel Blaikie holds on here. Currently 2nd behind the CPC. Winnipeg Centre: I feel like the good people of Winnipeg, who dumped Pat Martin for the Liberals in 2015, should be real disappointed with Ouellette. 338 has this one pretty tight with the NDP, and Leah Gazan is an incredible candidate. Winnipeg North: Historically a strong NDP riding despite disappointing results this decade. Saskatchewan - The LPC is almost completely absent, the NDP trail the CPC everywhere. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River: Currently held by Georgina Jolibois, tight race with the CPC here. Saskatoon West: Currently held by deputy NDP leader Sheri Benson, and apparently another tight one. Regina—Lewvan: Oy. Currently held by former-NDP Erin Weir, who is thankfully not running. Seems like a loss incoming, CPC leading the NDP. Saskatoon—Grasswood: Safe CPC territory but with decent NDP numbers. Saskatoon—University: Oh gods, Brad Trost’s riding. The NDP are the second choice overwhelmingly here, but the Trostlodyte seems entrenched. Alberta - Let’s keep this short. Edmonton Strathcona: Linda Duncan, who won this seat in 2011, is retiring. Her would-be replacement Heather McPherson has a real uphill battle against… Alberta, conceptually. BC - The Greens are beginning to become a problem. Burnaby North—Seymour: Svend Robinson is back. Despicable CPC candidate Heather Leung has been removed (but remains on the ballot.) LPC incumbent Terry Beech has made wild claims about the necessity of defeating the Conservatives. I wanna bet on Svend but it seems like a hard one, especially with a strong Green 3rd place. Burnaby South: If the NDP lose this riding we’ve learned a very important and painful lesson. CPC Jay Shin has disturbingly high numbers. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford: Alistair McGregor won this riding in 2015 and looks ahead of the pack in the rare 4-way race. Courtenay—Alberni: close CPC/NDP race with incumbent NDP Gord Johns looking okay but not exactly strong. Greens in a close third place. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke: On the island, NDP incumbents like Randall Garrison are in real danger of being run-over by the Greens – he’s currently polling third, behind the GPC and CPC. Kootenay—Columbia: NDP incumbent Wayne Stetski is in a close race with the CPC, they’re the only two parties relevant in this interior battle. Nanaimo—Ladysmith: Paul Manly won a spring by-election for the Greens, taking the riding from the NDP. Every expectation is they’ll hold it, and the NDP seem to be fighting the Conservatives for 2nd. New Westminster—Burnaby: Peter Julian has represented the NDP from a variation of this riding since 2004, his biggest rival here is the LPC. North Island—Powell River: Incumbent NDPer Rachel Blaney barely leads the pack of 4, edging out the CPC. Needs your help, for sure. Port Moody—Coquitlam: part-man part-shark Fin Donnelly, having finally realized his legislative goals of banning shark-fins, is retiring. The NDP are thus in tough against the CPC for the fate of Po-Mo-Co, with the LPC not super far behind. Skeena—Bulkley Valley: Everyone’s favourite NDP MP Nathan Cullen is retiring and this enormous riding is sadly thus in play, a race between the NDP and CPC. South Okanagan—West Kootenay: Incumbent NDP Dick Cannings, avian biologist extraordinaire, is in a rare Interior three-way with retired tennis pro Helena Konanz and an unusually strong LPC in third. Surrey Centre: LPC seem likely to hold, the NDP are well-back in 2nd. NDP have a history of doing well in North Surrey. Surrey—Newton: I don’t think the recent scandal involving former MP Jinny Sims is going to help the NDP in this riding, but they are the 2nd choice to the incumbent LPC. Vancouver East: Never in doubt. The NDP have repped East Van consistently since they were the CCF, going all the way back to the thirties. Two brief interruptions in the 70s and 90s, otherwise 75 of the last 84 years this fortress of leftism has held. Vancouver Kingsway: My riding. Don Davies has done well by us for more than a decade. The Liberals attempting to gain this riding by parachuting in TV presenter Tamara Taggart kinda makes my blood boil. I’m good with Don. He’s got a healthy lead but it’ll be closer than I’d like. Northwest Territory At-Large: Three way race, could be a vote splitter. Nunavut At-Large: Three way race, could be a vote splitter. Sure would like to see them dump Leona. Mumilaq Qaqqaq is a fascinating candidate for the NDP.

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Submitted by @omegatheunknown

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