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femme-foucault · 4 days ago

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Oscar Nominations Predictions - November 2024

Yup it's that time of year again. Now that we are getting to the end of the year and I've seen more movies, let's see.

My predictions (in alphabetical order):

Best Picture:

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown*

Conclave

Dune Pt 2

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys*

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

Wicked Pt 1

** most likely to be swapped out depending on how they go down.

Best Director:

Sean Baker (Anora) Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Denis Villenueve (Dune Pt 2. Definitely won't win but I think he'll be nominated). Not sure who the fifth person will be but probably someone directing a non-English film and/or a woman if the past few years continue the same pattern.

Best Actor:

Adrian Brody, Timothy Chalamet (for A Complete Unknown) Colman Domingo, Ralph Fiennes, and idk about the fifth show but maybe Daniel Craig or Jesse Eisenberg?

Best Actress (most competitive race ATL):

Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Perez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikkey Madison (actually the only person I'm 100% confident about), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl). I'm going on a limb and guessing Saoirse Ronan might struggle to get in for The Outrun and I don't see Cynthia Erivo getting for Wicked, but I do see her being nominated at CC and Globes.

Best Supporting Actor:

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and actually I'm going out on a limb and guessing that it might be one of the Anora guys but not sure which one. Or maybe Byran Tyree Henry for A Fire Inside? I don't see it going to Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice because of how contentious that movie is right now.

Best Supporting Actress:

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Saoirse Ronan (Blitz, not The Outrun, and I think she'll compete in supporting), Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez).

Best Original Screenplay:

Anora will probably win, but I think that actually if The Substance is going to be nominated anywhere other than Make Up, it'd be here. The Academy hates horror films for some reason but I'd like to see it get into something other than just Make Up.

Best Adapted:

Not sure what classifies here (is The Brutalist original or adapted?) so not sure. I think Sing Sing gets in here.

#lior liveblogs awards season #note: just because I think Grande might get in but Erivo won't is not what SHOULD happen #it is what I think is more LIKELY to happen #all of my Oscar predictions are that -- predictions or guesses -- not necessarily my personal choices #I haven't even seen all the movies on the Best Picture list bc some of them haven't come out yet but that's my guess #just based on patterns of how nominations have worked the past few years (there's usually at least one non-English film (Emilia Perez this #year)#the long historical epic (The Zone of Interest was both last year and there was also KOTFM #yeah I know Oppenheimer technically counts but I'd put that in...)#at least two blockbusters (Barbenheimer last year and both #Avatar 2 and Top Gun: Maverick the year before that #this year I think Dune 2 and Wicked Pt 1)#one small A24 film (Sing Sing this year and Past Lives last year)#and if there is an indie darling subversive comedy then that might end up there too or even win #(EEAAO the year before last Poor Things this past year and Anora this year))#but patterns can change so who knows?#the reason I think Grande might get in and Erivo will have a harder time is bc Best Supporting Actress is not that competitive this year #while Best Actress is maybe the most competitive race #also there is already an example of the academy being willing to nominate a supporting comedic role #over the lead with Barbie and Ryan Gosling getting nominated but not Margot Robbie #so they will do it #but I could be totally wrong it depends on how well Wicked does at the precursors

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