#“and then Putin said “land back

[kats-midnight-shitposts]

“Cis-her Gal-a-them” - Destiny’s Children

[jiabeewrites]

so this is what i've gathered from the memes and tumblr posts:

(please do not take this as 100% accurate. it's probably only like 78% accurate)

TITANIC II:

a few billionaires + a 19 year old + one other person(?) went into a "submarine" that wasn't actually a submarine

it was controlled by a VIDEO GAME CONTROLLER

and they were supposed to explore the titanic

and the submarine thingie didn't actually work and they KNEW THAT before getting on

and it imploded

and they all died

the only person anyone has sympathy for is the 19 year old bc he didn't wanna go on but wanted to make his dad happy

also celine dion is trending lmao

and fanfic is being written for the submarine (im slightly concerned)

oh and the company who made the submarine is called oceangate

this link. that's it, that's the addition.

oh yeah and @hkayakh said that a documentary is being made about this???

RUSSIA:

there's a coup

and there's basically a civil war

and the person in charge of the coup said that he's trying to topple russia's military leaders

and ukraine just took back some of their land

also the troops stopped for coffee before fighting

important addition by @chimp-prolly-not-typing-hamlet: the rogue battalion that rebelled against Putin is a private paramilitary organization called Wagner’s Group which has been linked to far-right extremism and neo-nazism

GREECE:

the greek coast guard capsized a boat full of hundreds of migrants, killing 80 with over 500 people still counted as missing, and the eu won't even investigate (according to @socialist-microwave-laser, please go check this post for more info)

so yeah fuck capitalism actually

THE STOCK MARKET???:

logitech is NOT suing oceangate, that was a fake post

EXTRA SHIT:

andrew tate is being charged for rape and human trafficking

and apparently elon musk challenged mark zuckerberg to a jiu jitsu cage fight

and andrew tate offered to coach elon musk

the season finale of helluva boss came out!!! (s1e8)

the season finale of helluva boss is coming out only right now because of some legal issues that vivsiepop + spindlehorse had. i think it had something to do with working with kesha and her label

FNAF TRAILER JUST DROPPED

yeah the world just decided to speedrun history today

(pls tell me if there's anything to add to this in the replies!!!)

[zvaigzdelasas]

A painful reality check shows the 600-mile-long Ukrainian-Russian front in a figurative and literal freeze, draining Ukrainian resources and lives without much prospect for change in the foreseeable future. The much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive of the past six months exacted a huge cost in casualties and matériel, but barely nudged the front lines. Ukraine’s top military commander has said the fight is at a “stalemate” — a notion deemed taboo not long ago — and only an unlikely technological breakthrough by one side or the other could break it. [...]

The way things are going, “Ukraine will for the foreseeable future harbor Europe’s most dangerous geopolitical fault line,” [...] an endless conflict that deepens Russia’s alienation from the West, enshrines Putinism and delays Ukraine’s integration into Europe. That, at least, is the bleak prognosis if victory in the war continues to be defined in territorial terms, specifically the goal of driving Russia out of all the Ukrainian lands it occupied in 2014 and over the past 22 months, including Crimea and a thick wedge of southeastern Ukraine, altogether about a fifth of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. But regaining territory is the wrong way to imagine the best outcome. True victory for Ukraine is to rise from the hell of the war as a strong, independent, prosperous and secure state, firmly planted in the West.[...]

the only way to find out if Mr. Putin is serious about a cease-fire, and whether one can be worked out, is to give it a try. Halting Russia well short of its goals and turning to the reconstruction and modernization of Ukraine would be lasting tributes to the Ukrainians who have made the ultimate sacrifice to preserve the existence of their nation. And no temporary armistice would forever preclude Ukraine from recovering all of its land.

With U.S. and European aid to Ukraine now in serious jeopardy, the Biden administration and European officials are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia. The White House and Pentagon publicly insist there is no official change in administration policy — that they still support Ukraine’s aim of forcing Russia’s military completely out of the country. [...]

The administration official told POLITICO Magazine this week that much of this strategic shift to defense is aimed at shoring up Ukraine’s position in any future negotiation. “That’s been our theory of the case throughout — the only way this war ends ultimately is through negotiation,” said the official, a White House spokesperson who was given anonymity because they are not authorized to speak on the record.[...]

“Those discussions [about peace talks] are starting, but [the administration] can’t back down publicly because of the political risk” to Biden, said a congressional official who is familiar with the administration’s thinking and who was granted anonymity to speak freely.[...]

The European diplomat based in Washington said that the European Union is also raising the threat of expediting Ukraine’s membership in NATO to “put the Ukrainians in the best situation possible to negotiate” with Moscow. That is a flashpoint for Putin, who is believed to be mainly interested in a strategic deal with Washington under which Ukraine will not enter NATO. [...]

For most of the conflict GOP critics have accused Biden of moving too slowly to arm the Ukrainians with the most sophisticated weaponry, such as M1A1 Abrams battle tanks, long-range precision artillery and F-16 fighter jets. In an interview in July Zelenskyy himself said the delays “provided Russia with time to mine all our lands and build several lines of defense.” [...]

The Ukrainians themselves are engaged in what is becoming a very public debate about how long they can hold out against Putin. With Ukraine running low on troops as well as weapons, Zelenskyy’s refusal to consider any fresh negotiations with Moscow is looking more and more politically untenable at home. The Ukrainian president, seeking to draft another half million troops, is facing rising domestic opposition from his military commander in chief, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, and the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko.

So what was all that for then [27 Dec 23]

[qqueenofhades]

Hwy dod we even need to send more money to Ukraine tho like we’ve already supported them plenty! But let Europe pull their weight and we can go back to spending that money on American policies

Do you read like, any news outside Tumblr, any Ukrainian perspectives, any basic analyses of the conflict, any rationale from Democrats or Congress, or anything? Because, in brief:

Ukrainians are currently facing a full-scale genocide. It has been going on for over a year and Russian military leadership has every plan to continue until fruition. If they stop resisting, there will be no more Ukraine or Ukrainians. So all the "appeasers" or "realists" insisting that Ukraine should "give up land for peace" (which notably worked so well with Czechoslovakia and Hitler in 1938) are basically deciding that it's fine to let the genocide be carried out, if it's even minorly inconvenient for us. Putin and cronies have repeatedly stated that if they are successful in taking Ukraine, they will go further. This is the exact scenario that leads to the "escalation" and/or WWIII that various people keep wringing their hands over. It is far more just and safe for Ukraine to be supported now and to stop that before it gets even worse.

America is not actually giving over buckets of black cash, regardless of what various bad-faith takes claim. They are handing over weapons valued at various amounts of money, along with some financial and budgetary aid. A lot of these weapons are older and would cost more to decommission than they cost to give to a sovereign democracy fighting for its life against an imperialist autocratic neighbor. This is some tiny amount like 5% (if that) of America's bloated military budget. And again: it's actual weapons valued at a certain dollar amount. These cannot be spent on American domestic policies.

The idea that helping Ukraine is directly coming out of our own pockets or preventing us from spending as needed on our own needs is propaganda. It is not good to repeat it.

I wrote this post the other day about why Putin is trying so hard to break American/Western support for Ukraine, and why the hard-right MAGA has enabled him in it. Putin's Russia is the motivating nexus, coordination, and funding center for Russian/European/American far-right theocratic fascism. This whole "America Only" is the exact rationale that appeals to said far-right domestic fascists and gives Putin and other imperial expansionist kleptocrats the justification to just throw away post-WWII international order and declare that any larger and more powerful state can systematically eradicate any neighboring country, claim its territory, destroy its government, kill its people, and get away with it. Because why would they stop, if there aren't any consequences and they are rewarded for it?

Putin has repeatedly interfered in American elections to help Trump and the Republicans. That should tell you something about who he sees as most favorable to his interests and what he would do again if allowed to emerge victorious.

Europe IS actually pulling its weight! They just brought all 27 defense ministers to Kyiv, they have been working on Ukraine's accession talks, they have committed all types of weapons (including the long-range missiles that the US still won't clearly authorize), they've committed a new tranche of 5 billion euros in long-term assistance, etc. But the whole "we should pull out of NATO and leave Europe to fend for itself" was a key isolationist and xenophobic Trump idea. We can see what that led to.

American aid is vital to Ukraine's continued existence as a sovereign country, period, and it is in American interests to continue to provide it as agreed upon. Not least because such an egregious betrayal of a democratic ally would empower the fascists of the world, both Russian and American, and because as noted, if this conflict was not stopped and got bigger, it would then involve American troops. It is a moral, democratic, political, and ethical imperative. This is not a difficult call or a complicated situation, regardless of what the Online Leftist tankies and the MAGA-world nutcases (because horseshoe theory) want you to think.

Слава Україні.

The end.

[lizzieisright]

How can you support Palestine? It’s constantly ranked as one of the worst countries for lgbt rights/safety and people who are found out face death in many instances. A man was decapitated in the street for being found gay and gay sexual relations are illegal with a penalty of jail time… Who do you think you are crusading for? The reality is if you went there with a rainbow flag walking down the street you would not be ok. Queer people flee to Israel for safety because society there as in many Islamic regions is notoriously anti-lgbt. Israel bought their land and have every right to defend themselves contrary to what the people wanting to wipe out their entire country believe

Hello!

I support Palestine because every person has a right to live. Because what is happening is a genocide. It's a fact. You can argue about it to the kingdom come, but it's done by the book genocide and, since it's a fact, opinions can't change it.  

With this being said, I'd like to address two specific points you made.

You can't shame me - or anyone who is queer and supports Palestine - by talking about hate crimes against queer people or describing them. Because before that you should look at your own country and check when was the last time a hate crime happened. I bet it'll be recent. Hate crimes and homophobia are not exclusive to arabic/muslim countries. This point of view is narrow minded at best and racist at worst - either by the lack of education or lack of interest in the world.

"The reality is if you went there with a rainbow flag walking down the street you would not be ok." - At this point I thought you might be a troll because saying this to me? I really am the wrong person to come to with this. I live in Russia. It's illegal to wear rainbow flags here and you will go to jail for it. Chechnya has torture camps for gay men. There's police raids in gay bars in Moscow happening regularly. Trans people are in danger of being forced to detransition. I live in the scenario above, you don't need to scare me with it out of supporting Palestine.

But my point is - I support Palestine as a queer even more as just a human, because I know what it means to live like this. Just because Palestinian queers might not be all loud and proud doesn't mean they don't exist; just because being gay is condemned and puts one's life at risk doesn't mean queers just suddenly stop existing.

And I also know - just as I have support here (my closest friends are straight women with traditional beliefs and they are very comfortable with me being gay, most people I know are not violently homophobic) Palestinian queers have their support, their communities and their people who love them and care for them. And they need our support as well. We don't get to turn our back on our fellow queers just because they happen to live in unsafe places. (and again, this kind of belief stinks of racism or of the need to broaden your worldview horizons. Believe me, the majority of queers are not white and don't live in lgbt-friendly countries)

"Israel bought their land and have every right to defend themselves contrary to what the people wanting to wipe out their entire country believe." My point in this is also really affected by me being Russian. (I'm sorry if some of you are uncomfortable with it, I can't really change it.)

You see, these reasons are very similar to what I've heard when Putin tried to justify the attack on Ukraine.

"Israel bought their land" is just as disgusting to me as "Ukraine didn't exist until 1991". "Israel has every right to defend themselves" is Putin's "We're defending ourselves against the collective West". Which is fucking nonsense.

And this is done by the book propaganda - and I'm not saying this because propaganda is a big word people like to throw around. I know this because I studied propaganda for my bachelor degree as a part of "changing public's opinion" course - me and my classmates were trained in this. They take some historical facts you can't deny or make an enemy out of someone (them vs us) and manipulate it to fit their rhetoric. Once you know how to recognise it you'll never not recognise it again.

Israel is not defending itself by targeting civilians and sniping children - they killed more children in these months than Russia in two years which is horrifying to me - they confirmed multiple times they want to erase Palestine from the face of the Earth. These words don't mean self-defence. It's a colonial power that really wants to show how powerful they are and how unstoppable they are. And again, I know this from the side of the colonial power. For me, people who side with Israel are the same people who side with Russia - and it makes me sick. 

Also please don’t assume that people who support Palestine want to destroy Israel, this is again, very narrow minded. Saving people from genocide by committing another genocide? This is plainly stupid. The world is not black and white, it's more complicated than just taking sides. I'll give an example: I'm queer and I know I'll be in danger if I ever come to Dagestan (close to Chechnya) - but dagestan people fund rise to send humanitarian aid to Palestine and I donate to them, because people are dying and I don't really care if people who'll help them are homophobic to me. Because it's not about me.

But there are moments in history when you need to take a stand, and I will not stand with Israel. (or Russia for that matter)

Anyway. Stand with Ukraine. Free Palestine. 

[txttletale]

so when Palestine fights back by killing civilians, including children, you go: it's justified

but when Russia invades Ukraine and kills civilians, including children, and Ukraine fights back in defense, you go, Ukraine should settle for peace

and you say Israel can just stop the occupation, they have that power and then they could avoid their civilians dying by simply deciding to that, yet you don't see that the Ukraine war stop just as "easily", by Russia stopping the invasion. They invaded, they started the war, just like Israel occupied Palestine, they are the one who can stop it

I know these are two different situations but I cant help but notice how different your approaches are, like adjusting your theory according to who is attacking who.

also, you said it would be strategically impossible (im paraphrasing you) for Russia to stop their invasion, well, wouldn't it also be strategically impossible for Israel to stop their occupation.

Also, if Ukraine settle for peace (I want them to, I generally agree with your points on the topic) and Russia gains something from it (as their peace treaty will most definitely assign a lot of Ukraine land to Russia), then Russia gets the message that invading other countries is successful and a good way to go about things. I mean, obviously the peace work will begin after they settle for peace, preferably working with Russia, im just curious to hear your thoughts.

English isnt my first language but I hope you understand

volodymyr zelensky might have something to say about this comparison. obviously to be clear his comparison is fucking ridiculous, but is illustrative of a key difference--that all of the force of NATO are arrayed behind ukraine (a privilege not enjoyed by palestine) and that the government of ukraine is aligned with NATO rather than its own people--which is why it's selling everything that's not nailed down to the predatory west.

i do of course think that russia should stop the invasion! i respond flippantly to most people asking this because they rarely ask in good faith, but let me say it unequivocally--i'm a communist, i think that the fall of the soviet union was a tragedy and the oligarchic mafia state that rose from its ashes is an insult to everything it stood for. putin is a far-right anticommunist and the oligarchs that he represents are scum. in the case of russia vs. ukraine, russia is straightforwardly the agressor and it would be a good thing if russia withdrew immediately.

but when i talk about the need for a peace settlement, i'm not (no matter how much nationalists and the NATO fandom will yell that i am) advocating for an unconditional ukrainian surrender. i'm talking about the maximalist positions about 'punishing russia' and ensuring some imaginary total defeat that the NATO bloc advocate for and push the ukrainian position towards. the US and their allies have made no secret of they fact that they seek to prolong the war, use it as an opportunity to open ukraine up to US investors, and don't care about ukrainian casualties:

[1] [2] [3] [4]

& ultimately, there is the fact that i (and almost all my followers) live in the imperial core--as communists there is nothing any of us can do to push russia towards peace. that's a task for the russian communist and peace movements. what we can do, however, is obstruct and protest NATO's involvement in the war. this is what the union of ukrainian communists have said in their statement on the war:

We appeal to the Russian workers as a fraternal class, bearing all the burdens of war on its shoulders, also suffering from impoverishment, unemployment, and the elimination of fundamental rights and freedoms: seek the defeat of the bourgeois power in Russia, turn your weapons against the Russian oligarchs and their political acolytes. We are ready to fight with you to turn the imperialist war into a class war against the power of capital and for the communist revolution. We appeal to the workers of the countries belonging to NATO: To stop the threat of the destruction of humankind in the nuclear clash of imperialist war is only possible in a struggle not for abstract peace, but for the overthrow of the power of the bourgeoisie of their countries, who are waging these wars and profiting from them. Work for the defeat of the bourgeois governments and the NATO bloc in this war, put forward the task of turning the war between nations into a war between classes, turn the weapons produced by workers' hands not against the workers of other countries, but against the capitalists of your own countries, against their power.

—Union of Communists of Ukraine, On The War And The Tasks Of The Working Class

so--people in the west are powerless to do anything to prevent or weaken russian imperialism, short of supporting their own imperialist powers--which, if you care at all about human life or the working class, is robbing peter to pay paul. however, those same bourgeois western governments are the ones supporting the israeli genocide--this is a case in which the Western proletariat can and should mobilize to suppress the imperialism and colonialism of the aggressor, because they live in countries that directly support it.

of course, there are also massive differences in the actual circumstances of the relations between russia and ukraine--russia is not, for example, built on stolen ukrainian land, nor is ukraine an open-air concentration camp whose water and electricity are provided by russia only sparingly, nor has ukraine seen in peacetime regular brutal massacre, invasion, bombing, and murder as palestine does every single year of so-called 'peace' that passes between israel and palestine. the situation of 'peace' between russia and ukraine before 2022 was not one of totally intolerable one-sided massacre, as the situation of 'peace' between israel and palestine has been.

as such, there are in fact multiple parties who can pursue peace in ukraine, including parties that we, communists in the West--who are the people i blog as and for--can pressure and organize against effectively. there is only one party that can pursue peace in israel. the situation is not comparable, either on its face or in the relation the West and as a result communists in the West have to it.

[mariacallous]

With Ukraine’s counteroffensive stalled and the U.S. Congress deadlocked over crucial military aid, some analysts have begun raising the specter of a turning point in the war that could lead to a Ukrainian defeat. While the situation on the ground is still far from dire, it could rapidly deteriorate in the absence of a significant infusion of U.S. military support for Ukraine.

The consequences of a Ukrainian defeat need to be fully understood. The likely geopolitical consequences are easy to anticipate. The defeat of a Western-backed country would embolden Russia and other revisionist states to change other borders by force. A Russian victory would frighten Russia’s European neighbors, possibly leading to a collapse of European collective security as some countries choose appeasement and others massively rearm. China, too, would conclude that Taiwan cannot rely on sustained U.S. support. Indeed, the ripple effects of U.S. indecision have already begun: In a move that recalls Russia’s illegal annexation of several regions of Ukraine, Venezuela this month claimed more than half of neighboring Guyana as its own. While there are no signs of an impending invasion, it would be naïve to think that other countries aren’t watching closely to see whether Russia’s land grab succeeds.

Many analysts have already described these far-reaching security risks. But they pale in comparison to the dire consequences for Ukraine and its inhabitants if Russia wins. It is important for both supporters and opponents of Ukraine aid to know what these consequences would be.

To understand Ukraine’s likely fate if Russia turns the tide, the best place to start is what the Russians actually say. On Dec. 8, Russian President Vladimir Putin made clear that in his view there is no future for the Ukrainian state. On Dec. 5, he spelled out his intention to “reeducate” the Ukrainian people, curing them of “Russophobia” and “historical falsifications.” On Nov. 12, former Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev made Russia’s appetites clear: “Odessa, Nikolaev, Kyiv, and practically everything else is not Ukraine at all.” It is “obvious,” he posted on Telegram, that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is a “usurper,” that the Ukrainian language is only a “mongrel dialect” of Russian, and that Ukraine is “NOT a country, but artificially collected territories.” Other regime propagandists assert that the Ukrainian state is a disease that must be treated and Ukrainians a society that must be “de-wormed.”

More explicitly, Russia’s highly censored state television has, over the past two years, consistently promoted the rape of Ukrainians, the drowning of children, the leveling of cities, the eradication of the Ukrainian elite, and the physical extermination of millions of Ukrainians. For an excellent snapshot of these and other statements, Russian Media Monitor has compiled a must-watch collection of short clips from Russian television, complete with English subtitles. This coordinated campaign is not bluster but a harbinger of what awaits the Ukrainian people. In these remarks, we can see the contours of the atrocities awaiting Ukrainians under a total or nearly total Russian occupation.

We can also project the effect of a Russian victory from the atrocities that are already widespread in the Russian-occupied territories. According to official Ukrainian sources, nearly 2 million Ukrainians have already been removed from their homes and communities in the occupied areas and resettled in Russia, either temporarily or permanently. Other estimates range from 1.6 million to 4.7 million. Russian children’s commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova said that more than 700,000 Ukrainian children have been taken from Ukraine to Russia since February 2022; nearly 20,000 of these are known to Ukrainian authorities by name. Transferring children from their home country and denying them access to their language and culture is not only an internationally recognized war crime. Such forced assimilation is also defined by the U.N. Convention on Genocide as a genocidal act. It is why the International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for Lvova-Belova’s arrest.

Russia is not only ridding its occupied regions of Ukrainians but also replacing them with Russian settlers—a tragic continuity with Soviet and Russian imperial practices of systemic deportation, colonization, and Russification. In the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, where the Russian advance killed tens of thousands of civilians and destroyed 50 percent of the city’s housing stock, a handful of new apartment buildings were recently constructed. Some of that housing is being offered for sale, with Russians carpetbaggers snatching up real estate at bargain prices.

Ukraine’s partly occupied south offers a clear picture of the techniques used by the occupying forces to establish authority. A Human Rights Watch report from July 2022 documents a pattern of torture, disappearances, and arbitrary detention in the region. Citizens endured torture during interrogation, including beatings, electroshocks, and sensory deprivation. Several prisoners died from the torture, and large numbers have simply disappeared. Among the victims were local officials, teachers, representatives of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, NGO activists, and members of Ukraine’s territorial defense. There also is a massive amount of information collected by human rights monitors and journalists about the operation of filtration and detention camps.

Political indoctrination and the militarization of youth are already key characteristics of life under Russian occupation. Political banners and posters promoting Russian patriotism are omnipresent in the occupied regions. New children’s textbooks expunge Ukrainian history and preach hatred for Ukraine’s leadership. The Ukrainian language is being removed from much of the education system and relegated to its colonial status as a quaint dialect representing nothing but a gradually disappearing regional culture soon to be subsumed in the Russified mainstream.

Already, millions of Ukrainians have had their lives destroyed in one way or another by Russia’s monstrous occupation. Were Russia to complete its conquest, it would be a multiple of that number. After almost a decade of war against Russia, Ukrainians are united and highly mobilized in the defense of their country’s borders, democracy, culture, and language, to which many Ukrainian Russian-speakers have switched out of disgust with Moscow’s invasion. Millions of Ukrainians have been enraged and radicalized by Russia’s war crimes and destruction of their towns and homes. Millions of Ukrainians have volunteered to assist the war effort, millions have contributed funds to support the military, and even more have turned to social media to vent and publicly register their rage at Putin and the Russian state.

That would not only make any conquest brutal and bloody. Should Ukraine lose, almost all of Ukrainian society would need to be punished, repressed, silenced, or reeducated if the occupation is to quell resistance and absorb the country into Russia. For this reason, a Russian takeover would be accompanied by mass arrests, long-term detentions, mass deportations into the Russian heartland, filtration camps on a vast scale, and political terror. If a serious insurgency emerges, the level of repression will only widen and deepen.

A major effort will also be required to rid the country of seditious materials, which is to say all films, novels, poetry, essays, art, scholarly works, and music that may contain positive references to Ukraine’s period of independence. Libraries and schools will be purged of all such subversive content—in essence, the majority of all writing and cultural output that Ukraine has produced during the last three decades. Writers and scholars will face the choice of repudiating their identity and past work or becoming nonpersons in the new order. Many will face arrest or worse, simply because they transport Ukrainian culture and stand in the way of Russification. Again, this is not speculation but widespread practice in other territories that Russia has occupied.

Russian territorial advances would be accompanied by a second wave of Ukrainian refugees far more massive than that of early 2022, when some 7 million Ukrainians crossed the border into the European Union. For the remaining Ukrainians, the future would be one of totalitarian controls on culture, education, and speech, accompanied by a mass terror on a scale not seen in Europe since the 20th-century era of totalitarian rule.

There you have in distilled form what a Russian victory would mean. Members of the U.S. Congress are free to vote against assistance to Ukraine if they think—wrongly—that the war’s outcome does not affect the U.S. national interest. But they should not be allowed to oppose assistance to Ukraine without being fully aware of the tyranny they will be helping to empower—and their responsibility for the massive and entirely predictable crimes that will ensue.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

July 10, 2024

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

JUL 11, 2024

“In 1949, when leaders of 12 countries, including President Truman, came together in this very room, history was watching,” President Joe Biden said yesterday evening at the opening of the 2024 NATO Summit, being held from July 9 through July 12, in Washington, D.C. 

“It had been four years since the surrender of the Axis powers and the end of the most devastating world war the world had ever, ever known,” Biden continued.

“Here, these 12 leaders gathered to make a sacred pledge to defend each other against aggression, provide their collective security, and to answer threats as one, because they knew to prevent future wars, to protect democracies, to lay the groundwork for a lasting peace and prosperity, they needed a new approach. They needed to combine their strengths. They needed an alliance.”

That alliance was the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the “single greatest, most effective defensive alliance in the history of the world,” as Biden said. 

The NATO collective defense agreement has stabilized the world for the past 75 years thanks to its provision in Article 5 that each of the NATO allies will consider an attack on one as an attack on all, and respond accordingly. 

Biden looked back at the alliance’s 75 years. “Together, we rebuilt Europe from the ruins of war, held high the torch of liberty during long decades of the Cold War,” he said. “When former adversaries became fellow democracies, we welcomed them into the Alliance. When war broke out in the Balkans, we intervened to restore peace and stop ethnic cleansing. And when the United States was attacked on September 11th, our NATO Allies—all of you—stood with us, invoking Article 5 for the first time in NATO history, treating an attack on us as an attack on all of us—a breathtaking display of friendship that the American people will never ever, ever forget.”

Biden celebrated that the alliance has continually adapted to a changing world and noted that it has changed its strategies to stay ahead of threats and reached out to new partners to become more effective. Biden noted that leaders from countries in the Indo-Pacific region had joined the leaders of the 32 NATO countries at this year’s summit. So did the leaders of NATO’s partner countries, including Ukraine, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, and the European Union. “They’re here because they have a stake in our success and we have a stake in theirs,” Biden said.

The promise of collective defense was daunting for opponents in 1949, when the treaty had 12 signatories: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States. It is even more daunting now that there are 32, with both Finland and Sweden having joined the alliance after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Together, the NATO countries can marshal about 3,370,000 active-duty military personnel and have a collective defense budget of more than $1.2 trillion. 

In addition, as Jim Garamone of Department of Defense News noted, the NATO countries share intelligence, training, tactics, and equipment, as well as agreements for permitting the use of airspace and bases. “[O]ur commitment is broad and deep,” Biden said. “[W]e’re willing, and we’re able to deter aggression and defend every inch of NATO territory across every domain: land, air, sea, cyber, and space.”

When NATO formed, the main concern of the countries backing it was resisting Soviet aggression, but with the fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of Russian president Vladimir Putin, NATO turned to resisting Russian aggression. “[H]istory calls for our collective strength,” Biden said. “Autocrats want to overturn global order, which has by and large kept for nearly 80 years and counting.”

Biden called out Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine and recalled that NATO had built a global coalition to stand behind Ukraine, providing weapons and aid while also moving troops into the surrounding NATO countries. He announced that the U.S., Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, and Italy are donating more air defense equipment. 

“All the Allies knew that before this war, Putin thought NATO would break,” Biden said. “Today, NATO is stronger than it’s ever been in its history.” Biden noted that the world is in a pivotal moment, and reminded his listeners: “The fact that NATO remains the bulwark of global security did not happen by accident. It wasn’t inevitable. Again and again, at critical moments, we chose unity over disunion, progress over retreat, freedom over tyranny, and hope over fear.

Again and again, we stood behind our shared vision of a peaceful and prosperous transatlantic community.”

He assured the attendees that an “overwhelming bipartisan majority of Americans understand that NATO makes us all safer…. The American people know that all the progress we’ve made in the past 75 years has happened behind the shield of NATO,” understanding that without it, we would face “another war in Europe, American troops fighting and dying, dictators spreading chaos, economic collapse, catastrophe.” He assured allies that Americans understand our “sacred obligation” to NATO, and quoted Republican president Ronald Reagan, who said: “If our fellow democracies are not secure, we cannot be secure. If you are threatened, we are threatened. And if you are not at peace, we cannot be at peace.”

And then Biden surprised NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, the former Norwegian prime minister who is stepping down from his NATO position after serving since 2014, with the Presidential Medal of Freedom. “Today, NATO is stronger, smarter, and more energized than when you began,” Biden said. “And a billion people across Europe and North America and, indeed, the whole world will reap the rewards of your labor for years to come in the form of security, opportunity, and greater freedoms.”

Today, Biden reiterated the theme that alliances happen not “by chance but by choice.” Before the attendees got to work, he explained that the NATO countries must strengthen their home industrial bases and capacity in order to produce critical defense equipment more quickly, a deficiency made clear in the struggle to get armaments to Ukraine. Such readiness will strengthen security, he said, as well as creating “stronger supply chains, a stronger economy, stronger military, and a stronger nation.” 

The Washington Summit Declaration released today reaffirms NATO as “the unique, essential, and indispensable transatlantic forum to consult, coordinate, and act on all matters related to our individual and collective security,” saying “[o]ur commitment to defend one another and every inch of Allied territory at all times, as enshrined in Article 5…is iron-clad.” 

It warns that “Russia remains the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security” and pledges “unwavering solidarity” with Ukraine. It says that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO” and calls out Belarus, North Korea, Iran, and China for enabling Putin’s war. Indeed, the declaration calls out China even more directly, warning that it “continues to pose systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security,” especially by flooding other countries with disinformation. 

Russian aggression is a deep concern for NATO countries; so is Trump, who worked to take the U.S. out of NATO when he was in office, vowed he will accomplish that in a second term, and in February 2024 told an audience that if he thought NATO countries weren’t contributing enough to their own defense he would tell Russia to “do whatever the hell they want.” (Biden noted yesterday that when he took office, only nine NATO countries met their target goal of spending 2% of their gross domestic product on their defense, while this year, 23 will.) 

Biden was key to rebuilding the NATO alliance after Trump weakened it, and the leaders at the NATO summit told foreign policy journalist for The Daily Beast David Rothkopf that they were “not concerned with Biden’s ability to play a leading role in NATO during his second term.” They “express confidence in his judgment” and “have a great deal of confidence in the foreign policy team around him.” But they worry about Trump. 

Shortly after Biden gave his powerful speech opening the summit, Trump had his first public event since the June 27 CNN event, at his Doral golf club. It was a wandering rant packed, as usual, with wild lies, but he did touch on the topic of NATO. “I didn’t even know what the hell NATO was too much before, but it didn’t take me long to figure it out, like about two minutes,” he said. Trump’s former national security advisor John Bolton told a reporter that Trump’s willingness to undermine NATO is “a demonstration of the lack of seriousness of the way Trump treats the alliance, because he doesn't understand it."

Following the NATO summit, Hungary’s right-wing prime minister, Viktor Orbán, who remains an ally of Russian president Vladimir Putin, will visit former president Trump at Mar-a-Lago, just days after meeting with Putin in Moscow and with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. There is speculation that Orbán is acting as an intermediary between Trump and Putin, for whom the destruction of NATO is a key goal.

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[unhonestlymirror]

Putin told his version of the history of the GDL and said that Zelensky's father fought against fascism, although he was born after the war

In an interview with American journalist Tucker Carlson, russian president Vladimir Putin said that he considers the Grand Duchy of Lithuania to be a russian state, as "russians made up a significant part of this state." According to him, after the unification of the Grand Duchy and the Kingdom of Poland, the Poles began to annex the lands of modern Ukraine.

.

Laughing my ass off. Grand Duchy of Lithuania consisted mostly of Lithuanians. Lithuanians back then were: Lietuviai, Lićviny, Samogitians, and Ruthenians (people of Kyivan Rus'). Well, and a bit of Tatars. Lietuviai are modern Lithuanians, Lićviny are modern Belaruthians, Ruthenians (rusy) are modern Ukrainians. And Ruthenians made about 1/3 of GDL, not "most of them". There were no russians in Grand Duchy of Lithuania because russians were called muscovites back then, who eventually occupied Belaruthian Smalensk. Vytautas tried to make a friend out of moscow Duchy, but since russia has always been sick in the head, he didn't succeed, sadly.

And GDL wasn't also called "Lithuanian-russian". It was called "Lithuanian-Ruthenian-Samogitian" because Ukrainians are pretty independent.

[afeelgoodblog]

These are The Best News of Last Week

1. Brazil’s new president Lula vows to halt Deforestation.

For many Brazilians, Bolsonaro’s defeat represents a rejection of the explicit anti-Indigenous, anti-environmental agenda he enacted while in office.

Lula has promised to update Brazil’s climate goals to steer the country back in line with the Paris Agreement. He has also committed to a list of climate proposals put forth by Marina Silva, the most prominent environmental activist in Brazil who served as his former environment minister. In his first speech as president-elect late Sunday night, he reiterated his strong support for zero deforestation in the Amazon. “Brazil is ready to resume its leading role in the fight against the climate crisis”

2. All-terrain wheelchairs arrive at U.S. parks: ‘This is life-changing’

For anyone who has to use a wheelchair, the state says it will soon be easier to be able to enjoy several parks, historic sites and wildlife centers because these locations will provide free all-terrain wheelchairs.

The Georgia Department of Natural Resources said it has partnered with the Aimee Copeland Foundation to provide high-mobility, all-terrain track wheelchairs at 10 different locations across the state. DNR said the initiative “encourages those with mobility impairments to reconnect with nature, explore nature trails, go fishing and attend adaptive hunts.”

3. Electricity-generating windows? Swiss scientists design more efficient transparent solar panels

All that natural light flowing through your windows may one day do much more than brighten your mood. Scientists in Switzerland have reached a new efficiency record for transparent solar cells, paving the way for electricity-generating windows that could help power our homes and devices.

Also known as Grätzel cells, dye-sensitised solar cells (DSCs) are a type of low-cost solar cell that use photosensitised dye attached to the surface of a semiconductor to convert visible light into energy.

4. In France all new large parking lots must now be covered in solar panels starting in july 2023

The new provisions are part of French president Emmanuel Macron’s large-scale plan to heavily invest in renewables, which aims to multiply by 10 the amount of solar energy produced in the country, and to double the power from land-based wind farms.

Starting July 1, 2023, smaller carparks that have between 80 and 400 spaces will have five years to be in compliance with the new measures. Carparks with more than 400 spaces have a shorter timeline: They will need to comply with the new measures within three years of this date, and at least half of the surface area of the parking lot will need to be covered in solar panels.

5. Car horns replace gunfire as Ukraine’s troops return to jubilant Kherson

Ukrainian soldiers swept into the southern city of Kherson on Friday, seizing a major symbolic and strategic prize from the retreating Russian army and dealing a bitter blow to President Vladimir V. Putin.

Just weeks after Mr. Putin declared the Kherson region a part of Russia forever, his troops were forced to abandon its capital city, their third major retreat in the war. The setback further dented the once-formidable reputation of an army that has mismanaged logistics and sent unprepared and unmotivated soldiers into battle.

Jubilant crowds poured into the streets, greeting Ukrainian soldiers and waving flags

6. Lab-grown blood given to people in world-first clinical trial

Tiny amounts — equivalent to a couple of spoonfuls — are being tested to see how it performs inside the body. The bulk of blood transfusions will always rely on people regularly rolling up their sleeve to donate.

But the ultimate goal is to manufacture vital, but ultra-rare, blood groups that are hard to get hold of. These are necessary for people who depend on regular blood transfusions for conditions such as sickle cell anaemia.

7. A pod of dolphins got stuck in the mud at low tide — here’s how a N.S. community saved them

According to the Digby Fire Department, there were 16 Atlantic white-sided dolphins, of various sizes, stranded. People of all ages rushed to the scene in Digby on the afternoon of Nov. 4 after it was discovered that 16 dolphins were stranded in the mudflats of an area known as The Joggins.

“We are happy to report that all 16 dolphins eventually were ushered into the water,” the department posted on its Facebook page late in the afternoon. “We are hopeful once the tide keeps rising, they will safely make their way back out to sea.”

- - -

That’s it for this week. If you liked this post you can support this newsletter with a small kofi donation:

Buy me a coffee ❤️

Have a great week ahead :)

[suratan-zir]

"Alyaksandr Lukashenko says at a meeting with Vladimir Putin that the Wagner wants to go west. To Warsaw and Rzeszów. "On a trip"."

In other words, Russian mercenaries threaten to attack Poland.

Before that, Putin said that the Polish territories were gifted to Poland by Stalin and that "if our Polish partners have forgotten about it, we will remind them." The same things he said about Ukraine back in 2022 when declared war: "Ukrainian land was a gift from Lenin."

You may not take his threats and deluded pseudo-history seriously. Russia is weakened by the ongoing war and certainly can't win a conventional war against NATO. But as long as Russia exists, it will try to cause chaos and harm the West by all means available to them. If not with missiles, then with bribery, hacker attacks, interference in elections and more.

[tomorrowusa]

Russia and Iran are de facto allies. Russia buys drones from Iran which are then used to kill Ukrainian civilians. The Houthi rebels in Yemen are backed by Iran.

So it's puzzling that the Houthis attacked a Russian oil tanker. And it's the second time they've done this. Russia and the Houthis are indirect allies.

Some Russian commentators are delighted with unrest in the Middle East because it draws attention away from Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine. But they can't be happy that the Houthis are disrupting Russia's oil trade.

My impression is that the Houthis just aren't very bright. They claim that they are attacking shipping connected to Israel, but few ships they've attacked have anything to do with Israel. This disruption of international sea lanes has already prompted a military response.

A Kremlin propagandist has boasted how Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have helped Russia by diverting Western attention away from the war in Ukraine. However, one of his country's oil tankers got caught up in hostilities when it was mistakenly fired upon, 90 nautical miles southeast of Yemen's port city of Aden, by the Yemeni militants. [ ... ] Hawkish Russian politician Aleksey Zhuravlyov told 60 Minutes on the Russia 1 channel how the situation in the Red Sea is "totally beneficial for us" because "everybody is forgetting about Ukraine." "Go ahead, the West," said Zhuravlyov, chairman of the Rodina (Motherland) political party, citing Western help in Ukraine's fight in the war started by Moscow at a time of tensions in the Red Sea. "Are you ready to wage a bunch of wars?" Zhuravlyov added in a clip shared by Russia watcher Julia Davis on X, formerly Twitter. [ ... ] However, Zhuravlyov's comments come amid a report that Houthi militants fired a missile that landed within 1,500 feet of a vessel carrying Russian oil. It was sailing 90 nautical miles southeast of Yemen's port city of Aden, Reuters said.

Russia does have a habit of starting things without worrying much about the consequences.

The war in the Middle East that Zhuravlyov is so pleased with is into its 100th day. Russia's three-day "special operation" in Ukraine is now 690 days old.

I don't think Ukraine had anything to do with the following, however it may be war related. A 70,000 square meter warehouse for the online retailer Wildberries was destroyed by fire. The warehouse is in a suburb of St. Petersburg and it has been rumored that police had raided the building looking for migrants who could be conscripted into Putin's failing army. The migrants may have retaliated by torching the structure.

This is not exactly the first peculiar large fire in Russia since the start of Putin's invasion. Russia has a terrible fire safety record and it's probable that some firefighters are reservists who are now dodging Ukrainian fire rather than fighting fires at home.

[most-tragic-character-tournament]

You know what would be really big for Nov 5th and a pogger move by you?? If you want to lay down the law and truly make this unforgettable, simply disqualify the poll itself. Neither character wins, neither character loses. They get to sit in the time out corner. The Fields of Asphodel. Blorbo purgatory. (Or you pair them together as one team bracket, which is ALSO hilarious and equivalent to forcing one huge "this is our get along shirt" on both fandoms.) You hold so much power right now as referee. Your next move will be joked about and referenced for years to come. We still talk about 2020. About Todoroki VS Miette after the fanart of Todoroki making multiple accounts to vote for Miette and the BNHA fandom was like "yeah you know what. so true." and there was peace in the lands. For such a historic poll, a simple win and lose and moving on is a little too plain, don't you think? it's forgettable, and plants a seed of bitterness as that one anon said. I'M definitely going to be telling my English teachers about this poll if I ever have to read Antigone. Especially with Nov 5th of the Destiel Putin Touya Reveal Election Dance Night of Supernatural S4 coming up. It can be a nice little prequel to it. In the way Ash Ketchum Becoming World Champion is a little sequel to it. Internet sandwich. I'm not the only one thinking about the Even More Hilarious Options here right?? Counting on you, OP to truly make this THE single most unexpected poll to date. Nobody would have done a dual disqualification OR the get-long-shirt option in response to this much feuding. You'd be one of a kind, truly, and preserving So Much Peace in fandom and irl. (Lowkey hoping for the 2nd option bc I think its even funnier, and that we everyone gets to see this through to the end.)

Okokokok so this got sent hours before I decided what to do and it got lost in the draft-sauce. Posting for anon to get it back!!! and also it’s just funny

[ohsalome]

As a Ukrainian, what do you think will happen on the territories of Eastern Ukraine that were occupied since 2014 after they are liberated? There seems a hostility between people who lived on those occupied lands and Ukrainians, how do you think this demographic problem will be solved?

Thankyou for replying in advance!

That is a very tough question and the discussions around it are intense. I will retell some of the ideas I see thrown around, but full disclosure it is something most people would struggle answering, I think. So, apologies if this will be one of those posts that are tough to read - I struggled a lot puting my thoughts into words with this. Also, I don't have faith that the solutions that are offered today would be fullfilled without any fuck-ups on the way.

Allthough it is true that the majority of the people who chose to keep living in DNR/LNR are pro-russian, there still are those who remained loyal to Ukraine and are waiting for liberation. The dichotomy between "patriotic/nationalistic spiritual West" and "russophile bydlo East" is a false one. + I expect there will be people who fled Donbas in 2014 and will want to return home after its liberation. What I'm trying to say is, there are many people we will be able to rely on with solving the question of "what to do with Donbas after the reoccupation".

[image description: a flyer found in Donetsk in 2023 stating "Donetsk is Ukraine"]

[image description: a tweet with the following text: "When people say «listen to Donbas», for some reason everyone perceives this as «listen to those who support russia». But what about us, people from Donetsk, Luhansk, who remained loyal to Ukraine? What about us, who fled from occupation back in 2014? Who joined the army? We also need to be heard! We can name the streets after ukrainian heroes, we can lead the region! Ironically, the ukrainians who have lead to this scenario have already fled to russia long time ago or are dead. Indeed, the nature is cleaning itself."]

2. That being said, there is still an issue of the civillian population that has been loyal to russia. Best case scenario, which will probably not come to life, we will need some kind of deideologization zone; something akin to the post-ww2 denazification in Germany. Ideally it would involve a lot of educational projects aimed at opening the people's eyes to the fact that they've been lied to for 10 years (and, realistically speaking, their entire life - the propaganda started decades before the war).

Following the Germany's example, this will involve the decisions that will definitely make some anti-ukrainian polticians decry us as nazi - like withholding the voting rights for some period of time, withholding the rights to take up administrative positions, etc. etc. And I am sorry, but this is a necessary step we need to make if we want to secure our existance as a country in the future. We still 100% be required to ensure the human dignity of every person living on the territory of Ukraine and act in accordance to the UN declarations. But sometimes we need to put the collective interest above the individual one, especially when it comes to our literal survival as a group. But even if this project will happen as I have described, which I doubt, we still need to accept that there will be people who'll remain loyal to putin to the end of their days but will want to live where they are. If we manage to build a strong government and if russia falls apart by then, then they won't cause much of a problem. Otherwise, they will be a source of danger to the existance of Ukraine as a nation, and we'll need to think about using the revocation of citizenship, which will also sound horrible to our critics, even though it has a rich legitemate precedence.

3. People who have held administrative positions or were related to any type of propagandistic activity (e.g. teaching russian version of history in schools) are, according to law, collaborators, and will need to be put to trial as such. But everybody else - say, pensioneers, shop assistants, doctors etc. - are not considered collaborators under the international laws we all agreed on, even if they had to accept russian passports (which people are often forced to in order to receive food/medical help), and therefore do not need to fear that they will be presecuted as "collaborators" by law (this part I am actually pretty confident we'll do fine, we have had very lenient track record so far).

Overall it is a very complex topic where any mistake has a high price, and we for sure will need to create trustworthy legal organs to answer the societal request for justice. I have found one article which goes into more detail, and frankly is more well-versed in this topic than I am. What are the chances that this will go smoothly without any bumps on the way? Uuuuugh

4. There also is a problem of rebuilding the region which has been ravaged by war for a decade. Even before the invasion, Donbas has been the poorest region in Ukraine. Poverty breeds crime, crime breeds corruption, and corruption is a wide open door for russian KGBists. If we want to protect ourselves from anyone using our internal issues against us in the future, we will need to tackle them at their root. In my wildest dreams, I see rebuilding Donbas with the engagement of foreign investors into the biggest Ukrainian centre of scientific development - STEM research, engeineering, space science etc. (And, of course, a huge demilitarization zone on the border with a row of automatic turrets along the wall). But I know that this dream is very unrealistic and a slow depopulation and degradation of the region, alas, is a much more realistic scenario.

5. If you mean the personal animosity between people who have been living under occupied territories vs from free Ukraine... I don't know. Since 2014, there for sure has been discrimination towards the refugees to the east, and I do not expect the situation to be much difficult now - even if we somehow manage to take russian informational intervention out of the picture. In the end, it will depend on the governmental decisions and if they manage to build a good reintegration programme, which falls down to finding the correct people to do the job. I sincerely believe that there are people like that. I do not know if they will be able to overcome the corruption on their way.

There are also ecological issues which is a whole another can of worms I will not even touch today.

I do not remember if I've recommended this movie yet, but Atlantis by Valentyn Vasyanovych tries to respond the very same question of "what to do with Donbas after reoccupation". I think it is a great movie that tackles a lot of societal fears and frustrations, and the picture it paints is much less optimistic than what I've written here. It is a bit of arthousey, but still worth the watch. Give it a change, if you have time and opportunity.

In short, I unironically believe that the hardest work for Ukraine will start after we win the war.

[girlactionfigure]

*ISRAEL REALTIME* - "Connecting the World to Israel in Realtime"

▪️GAZA.. "A huge convoy of IDF tanks is in East Rafah, be warned.” This was one of the reports that was widely circulated among Gazans on social media last night.  Unknown if true, but panic among Gazans.

▪️US ASSASSINATES IRAQI HEZBOLLAH LEADER.. US drone strike on Iraqi Iranian supported Shia militia leader, who the US blames for attacks on a US base that killed US soldiers.

▪️IRAQI RESPONSE.. all the Iraqi Shia militias and Iraqi Shia politicians have declared REVENGE on the US.  The politicians of Iraq are now declaring the US must leave or pay hard.

▪️LEBANON HEZBOLLAH ATTACKS.. Starting the morning with very-large Burkhan rockets and anti-tank missiles fired from Lebanon at Israel.  IDF responds with artillery at Al D'Hira, Al Jabin, Tir Kharfa, Al Khayyam, the town of Kila and the area of ​​Al Adisa.

▪️NORTH WAR PREP.. Hospitals in the north continue to prepare for war, and were asked to immediately look for suitable places to build an alternative helipad (helicopter landing site), in case the current/primary one is damaged. (N12 - Yoav Even)

▪️RED SEA SHIPPING - ATTACK.. reports of an attack in the Red Sea overnight.

▪️US/UK ATTACKS YEMEN.. Attacks by the American coalition overnight in the Houthi-controlled Hodeidah and Zada ​​districts.  Reports of another wave of attacks NOW.

▪️NOT INSPECTED AID.. Ch. 14 expose’: Some aid trucks are moving from Egypt to Gaza and back without inspection!  Analysts speculate may be intention to allow Hamas leadership to flee.

▪️JUDEA-SAMARIA ATTACK.. A Palestinian gunman opened fire at troops near the West Bank town of Dayr Sharaf and was terminated. Two more Palestinians wounded in the same incident, possibly by the attackers gunfire.  No IDF casualties, although one soldier took a bullet to the helmet.

IDF forces blew up the house of the terrorist Hassan Kafisha in Hebron who took part in the attack at the tunnel checkpoint last November.

▪️HAMAS LEADERS SON.. spotted at the AFC Asia Cup football (soccer) tournament in Doha, Qatar. He left Gaza on Sept. 18.

▪️RUSSIA PRESIDENT PUTIN SAYS.. told the leaders of the Jewish community in Russia that Moscow had achieved "specific results" in the diplomatic efforts to free the Israeli hostages held by Hamas. He further said Russia made use of its contacts with the political arm of Hamas.

▪️FINANCE MINISTER CANCELS TAX EXEMPT STATUS OF UNRWA.. "The State of Israel will not give tax benefits to terrorist supporters.”

[beardedmrbean]

LONDON (Reuters) -Russia appears to have suffered a "catastrophic failure" in a test of its Sarmat missile, a key weapon in the modernisation of its nuclear arsenal, according to arms experts who have analysed satellite images of the launch site.

The images captured by Maxar on Sept. 21 show a crater about 60 metres (200 feet) wide at the launch silo at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia. They reveal extensive damage that was not visible in pictures taken earlier in the month.

The RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile is designed to deliver nuclear warheads to strike targets thousands of miles away in the United States or Europe, but its development has been dogged by delays and testing setbacks.

"By all indications, it was a failed test. It's a big hole in the ground," said Pavel Podvig, an analyst based in Geneva, who runs the Russian Nuclear Forces project. "There was a serious incident with the missile and the silo."

Timothy Wright, research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, said the destruction of the area immediately surrounding the missile silo was suggestive of a failure soon after ignition.

"One possible cause is that the first stage (booster) either failed to ignite properly or suffered from a catastrophic mechanical failure, causing the missile to fall back into or land closely adjacent to the silo and explode," he told Reuters.

James Acton, nuclear specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, posted on X that the before-and-after satellite images were "very persuasive that there was a big explosion" and said he was convinced that a Sarmat test had failed.

The Kremlin referred questions on Sarmat to the defence ministry. The ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment and has made no announcements about planned Sarmat tests in recent days.

The U.S. and its allies are closely watching Russia's development of its nuclear arsenal at a time when the war in Ukraine has pushed tensions between Moscow and the West to the most dangerous point for more than 60 years.

Since the start of the conflict, President Vladimir Putin has said repeatedly that Russia has the biggest and most advanced nuclear arsenal in the world, and warned the West not to cross a threshold that could lead to nuclear war.

REPEATED SETBACKS

The 35-metre-long RS-28 Sarmat, known in the West as Satan II, has a range of 18,000 km (11,000 miles) and a launch weight of over 208 tonnes. Russian media say it can carry up to 16 independently targetable nuclear warheads as well as Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles, a new system that Putin has said is unmatched by Russia's enemies.

Russia had at one point said the Sarmat would be ready by 2018, replacing the Soviet-era SS-18, but the date for deployment has been repeatedly pushed back.

Putin said in October 2023 that Russia had almost completed work on the missile. His defence minister at the time, Sergei Shoigu, said it was set to form "the basis of Russia's ground-based strategic nuclear forces".

IISS analyst Wright said a test failure did not necessarily mean that the Sarmat programme was in jeopardy.

"However, this is the fourth successive test failure of Sarmat which at the very least will push back its already delayed introduction into service even further and at most might raise questions about the programme’s viability," he said.

Wright said the damage at Plesetsk - a test site surrounded by forest in the Arkhangelsk region, some 800 km (500 miles) north of Moscow - would also impact the Sarmat programme.

The delays would put pressure on the serviceability and readiness of the ageing SS-18s the Sarmat is meant to replace, as they will have to remain in service for longer than expected, Wright said.

Nikolai Sokov, a former Russian and Soviet arms control official, said he expected Moscow to persist with the Sarmat, a product of the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau.

He said the Russian military had shown itself keen to preserve competition between rival designers and would therefore be reluctant to depend on Makeyev's rival, the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology, as the single source of all missiles.