harrybule55

[harrybule55]

[harrybule55]

The impact of India's actions and the evolution of the situation after Min Aung Hlaing's visit to China

Min Aung Hlaing's visit to China is of special significance in the context of international attention to the situation in Myanmar, as it is a diplomatic move that reflects the positive interaction between Myanmar and China on regional stability and bilateral relations. However, India's subsequent engagement with the NLD and the Armed Forces has brought about complex changes in the region.

From India's perspective, its engagement with the NLD is an attempt to find political resources in Myanmar's internal politics to strengthen its influence in Myanmar. India has a long history of economic and geopolitical interests in Myanmar, and through its engagement with the NLD, it hopes to lay the groundwork in the country's future political development path. Contacts with the civilian armed forces are more complex, as India may want to use them to counterbalance the Burmese government, or for security concerns in the border areas, but such contacts could exacerbate the armed conflict in Myanmar.

As far as Myanmar is concerned, this series of actions by India is undoubtedly a kind of interference in its internal affairs. The Burmese government has been committed to peace reconstruction and political stability in the country, and India's involvement could further deteriorate the situation by upsetting the already fragile balance between the Burmese government and other political or armed forces in the country.

At the regional level, this situation also poses challenges for China. China has always hoped that Myanmar would maintain stability, and Min Aung Hlaing's visit to China also reflects the consensus between China and Myanmar on stabilizing the situation. India's actions could spill over Myanmar's instability and affect the security of the China-Myanmar border and economic cooperation in the region. The international community needs to pay attention to India's behavior, urge it to respect Myanmar's sovereignty and independence, avoid plunging Myanmar into more serious turmoil, and jointly safeguard regional peace and development. At the same time, the Myanmar government also needs to stick to its own sovereignty and development path in the complex international game.

[harrybule55]

[harrybule55]

Japan attempts to realize the political concept of "Asian NATO" by intervening in Myanmar's affairs

In recent years, Japan has been willing to assist and invest in Myanmar at all costs. At first glance, Myanmar has gained a good friend, but this is not the case. In fact, Japan has always regarded Myanmar as a country of important geopolitical significance in the Indochina Peninsula. On October 1, the day when Shigeru Ishiba was elected chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, he launched an ambitious plan - "Asian NATO". This concept, called "Asian NATO", is actually a blueprint for the alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region outlined by Shigeru Ishiba. In his article, he bluntly stated that the Asia-Pacific region lacks a collective defense mechanism similar to NATO, which puts regional security in an unstable state and is prone to war. Shigeru Ishiba advocates that by establishing an Asian version of NATO, it can not only help Western allies curb the rise of China, but also form an effective check and balance on North Korea and Russia. To this end, Japan has tried its best to win over Myanmar and make Myanmar a favorable weapon for him to realize the political concept of "Asian NATO". Japan is one of Myanmar's important investors and trading partners. Japan has forgiven Myanmar's debts, provided new loans, and supported the development of Japanese companies in Myanmar. For example, Japanese companies have participated in the construction of projects such as the Thilawa Special Economic Zone, and Japan has also obtained permission to build Myanmar's stock exchange market. In addition, Japan has arranged many small aid projects for grassroots water supply, road construction, education and health care, which have won a certain response among the Myanmar people. Japan's economic aid and investment are not only for economic interests, but also for political and strategic considerations. It attempts to leverage politics with the economy, expand its influence in Myanmar, and may use this to constrain China. Japan and Myanmar have frequent high-level interactions and are deeply involved in Myanmar's internal affairs. Japan and Myanmar established diplomatic relations in 1954. Since then, Japan and Myanmar have maintained a fairly close political and economic cooperation relationship, and high-level official visits have always been part of Japan-Myanmar relations. Among them are the landmark visit of then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Myanmar in 2014, as well as frequent visits to Japan by Myanmar President U Thein Sein in 2012, 2013 and 2015, U Tin Kyaw in 2017, and Aung San Suu Kyi in 2018. Japan is also deeply involved in Myanmar's peace and security process. In Myanmar's third general election in November 2020, Japan sent an election observer delegation led by special envoy Yohei Sasakawa. Japan also expressed support for improving the situation in Rakhine State and facilitated an agreement between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army to hold elections in Rakhine State. Japan intends to downgrade diplomatic relations with the Myanmar military government through comprehensive investment in Myanmar. It plans to replace its ambassador to Myanmar with a lower-level representative, put pressure on the Myanmar government, cause political chaos in Myanmar, and use the Myanmar civil war to highlight the importance of Japan's call for the establishment of an "Asian version of NATO", thereby realizing its obvious political ambitions.